2014 Aussie Open SF: Fedal Volume 33

[crystalfire]

Until Roger shows that Rafa isn't completely in his head there is only one pick. The X's and O's don't really matter and form coming in is secondary to the players' history and the matchup. The last couple times they met in slams it seems that Rafa really never needed to get out of first gear to win going away. He is extremely confident vs. Fed especially on the big points. Roger has to flip that script or this ends all too predictably.

yep pretty much. its all mental

 

[crystalfire]

I think Roger has a real shot, but those annoying match-up issues are still going to be there--Roger's slice is basically dead against Nadal, and when he comes to net he's going to get passed much more than he did against Tsonga and Murray. Still, I think knowing that he won't have to face Novak in a final will give Roger a little extra motivation, and the court seems to be playing faster than in the past so maybe he can get over the hump.

actually if he were to face novak i wouldnt be worried. his current level is good enough to beat novak if he doesnt play anywhere near his best. i always feel like he knows what to do against djoker and their matches are always pretty close. most of rafa fed matches is one way for rafa.

 

[crystalfire]

if fed plays as well as hes been playing this is pretty much the final right here. if rafa wins i dont see berdych or stan being any real threat to rafa. itll be one way. if fed wins, final is still questionable berdych could blow him out but fed will have upper hand against stan

 

[the AntiPusher]

There is no pressure on Rafa to serve MUCH better, just be tactically aware of the situation and utilize the surprise "big" serve that he always find in these matches. Rafa will slide the first serve to Roger's backhand at least 80% of the time with perhaps some variation on the deuce court. In the last few years, Rafa's backhand has done a lot of damage to Roger's forehand and the usual CC pattern between 1HBH and Rafa's forehand it's overblown.....at least outside of clay.

Roger has to serve above 65% first serve but they don't have to be big....just accurate in the box. Anything around the 60% range will translate to painful running and at this stage, Roger can't afford to defend much against Rafa.

If Rafa can bring up his level to his average performance for GS SF he takes this; but another day like the one he had against Grigor......Roger has a good chance. It has to be in 4 or 3 and he has to take the first set.

Hey Mr HU , should we be concerned about Rafa's blister on the inside of his hand because it concerns me especailly going against Federer, just cant afford a slip up here to this player. All the pressure is on Rafa, Roger has been playing with house money since he won number 15, IMO.

 

[HawkEye]

Rafa in 5, though Fed can surprise.

 

[tented]

Rafa in 4. I believe he will remove the bandage. But I still expect this to be a real fight. It is a De facto final.

Roger will want to win very badly, but so will Rafa. Rafa needs to move well, maeke returns and fire with his forehand in both directions. He should be a little more comfortable at night as the conditions are a bit slower.

If he plays like he did against Monfils, I like his chances.

It's only a defacto final if Rafa wins. A Berdy-Fed final would be potentially very competitive.

If it weren't for the fact that it would be a GS final, then yes, it could be competitive. Since it would be a major final, then no, it won't be. Berdych has shown far too often that he will collapse under pressure, whereas being in major finals, and winning them, is something Roger is well acquainted with, to say the least -- unless he's playing a guy named Nadal.

 

[huntingyou]

There is no pressure on Rafa to serve MUCH better, just be tactically aware of the situation and utilize the surprise "big" serve that he always find in these matches. Rafa will slide the first serve to Roger's backhand at least 80% of the time with perhaps some variation on the deuce court. In the last few years, Rafa's backhand has done a lot of damage to Roger's forehand and the usual CC pattern between 1HBH and Rafa's forehand it's overblown.....at least outside of clay.

Roger has to serve above 65% first serve but they don't have to be big....just accurate in the box. Anything around the 60% range will translate to painful running and at this stage, Roger can't afford to defend much against Rafa.

If Rafa can bring up his level to his average performance for GS SF he takes this; but another day like the one he had against Grigor......Roger has a good chance. It has to be in 4 or 3 and he has to take the first set.

Hey Mr HU , should we be concerned about Rafa's blister on the inside of his hand because it concerns me especailly going against Federer, just cant afford a slip up here to this player. All the pressure is on Rafa, Roger has been playing with house money since he won number 15, IMO.

It's a concern and it's obvious it has affected his play although it's hard to know to what extend. Rafa can be his own enemy mentally so maybe the problem it's exagerated by him.

I agree that Rafa can't let this one go, he is playing for the "GOAT" title and there is only one player in front of him.......another W at the Slam level over him will just add to his resume. I do disagree with your take on Roger; he is not playing with house money........it's his legacy and that only was magnified after winning #15.

 

[the AntiPusher]

There is no pressure on Rafa to serve MUCH better, just be tactically aware of the situation and utilize the surprise "big" serve that he always find in these matches. Rafa will slide the first serve to Roger's backhand at least 80% of the time with perhaps some variation on the deuce court. In the last few years, Rafa's backhand has done a lot of damage to Roger's forehand and the usual CC pattern between 1HBH and Rafa's forehand it's overblown.....at least outside of clay.

Roger has to serve above 65% first serve but they don't have to be big....just accurate in the box. Anything around the 60% range will translate to painful running and at this stage, Roger can't afford to defend much against Rafa.

If Rafa can bring up his level to his average performance for GS SF he takes this; but another day like the one he had against Grigor......Roger has a good chance. It has to be in 4 or 3 and he has to take the first set.

Hey Mr HU , should we be concerned about Rafa's blister on the inside of his hand because it concerns me especailly going against Federer, just cant afford a slip up here to this player. All the pressure is on Rafa, Roger has been playing with house money since he won number 15, IMO.

It's a concern and it's obvious it has affected his play although it's hard to know to what extend. Rafa can be his own enemy mentally so maybe the problem it's exagerated by him.

I agree that Rafa can't let this one go, he is playing for the "GOAT" title and there is only one player in front of him.......another W at the Slam level over him will just add to his resume. I do disagree with your take on Roger; he is not playing with house money........it's his legacy and that only was magnified after winning #15.

What I meant by house money that Fed is playig with, for every new slam that he wins adds another year or more upon Rafa's quest to be the alltime leader.

 

[huntingyou]

What about another GS match lost to Rafa? Doesn't that add to both legacies? Just curious on your take on this.

I think once Rafa get's close (within 1 or even 2 depending,).......most people will concede who is the best player despite Roger holding the record. Rafa needs non-clay slams and a couple more big victories over the likes of Novak/Murray and Roger. The AO would be a great place to start grabbing those non-clay slams. Both players know this.

 

[the AntiPusher]

What about another GS match lost to Rafa? Doesn't that add to both legacies? Just curious on your take on this.

I think once Rafa get's close (within 1 or even 2 depending,).......most people will concede who is the best player despite Roger holding the record. Rafa needs non-clay slams and a couple more big victories over the likes of Novak/Murray and Roger. The AO would be a great place to start grabbing those non-clay slams. Both players know this.

You and I concurr about the H2H but its the other fans that will only look at who is the alltime GS titles leader as the GOAT.

 

[huntingyou]

What about another GS match lost to Rafa? Doesn't that add to both legacies? Just curious on your take on this.

I think once Rafa get's close (within 1 or even 2 depending,).......most people will concede who is the best player despite Roger holding the record. Rafa needs non-clay slams and a couple more big victories over the likes of Novak/Murray and Roger. The AO would be a great place to start grabbing those non-clay slams. Both players know this.

You and I concurr about the H2H but its the other fans that will only look at who is the alltime GS titles leader as the GOAT.

It's not jus the H2H but Rafa's entire career......like I said, add an AO title here or next year, another SW19 throphy and perhaps a few more HC MS titles; the case becomes find to argue against. He is already the best player ever in my opinion; it's a matter of becoming the "Greatest" which only an injury can derail the inevitable.

 

[Tennis Miller]

Rafa hits a ball to Roger's backhand.
Roger slices.
Rafa runs around the slice and kills the ball.
50x.

I don't see how Roger can avoid this enough to win the match. But I'll be looking forward to how he handles it. Rafa in four.

Unless Roger develops a Wawrinka-like DTL backhand overnight, your Groundhog Day scenario is the most likely.

Cheers

TM

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Fed went to the net 41 times against JW and won 34 points. About 84%.
Everybody said, it won't work much against Murray and he can pass Fed easily.
Fed went to the net 66 times against murray and won 75% of those attempts.

So, clearly his net game is clicking. His service game is rock solid. His return
game is improving.

On the other hand Rafa did not play well against Kei even though he won in
three sets. Rafa played even worse against Grigor, especially the third set
tie-breaker. Rafa has blisters.

Courts are playing faster than before. Roger needs to take time away from
Rafa. I think that will be the key to winning the match.

Coming to predictions part, let me give it slightly differently.

If the match is over in 3 sets, winner is Fed.

If the match goes all the way to 5 sets, winner is Rafa.

If the match involves exactly 4 sets, winner can be either one.

I think the match will last only 4 sets, which means I can't predict
the winner.

But I vote for Roger in 4, as this is his best chance in a long time both to
beat Rafa and to lift another GS trophy.

Finally, remember that the last time Mirka was pregnant Roger lifted the trophy.
(this is height of tennis analysis; But, it is not just me, Roger himself reminded about
this to everyone in a recent interview).

 

[Moxie]

There is no pressure on Rafa to serve MUCH better, just be tactically aware of the situation and utilize the surprise "big" serve that he always find in these matches. Rafa will slide the first serve to Roger's backhand at least 80% of the time with perhaps some variation on the deuce court. In the last few years, Rafa's backhand has done a lot of damage to Roger's forehand and the usual CC pattern between 1HBH and Rafa's forehand it's overblown.....at least outside of clay.

Roger has to serve above 65% first serve but they don't have to be big....just accurate in the box. Anything around the 60% range will translate to painful running and at this stage, Roger can't afford to defend much against Rafa.

If Rafa can bring up his level to his average performance for GS SF he takes this; but another day like the one he had against Grigor......Roger has a good chance. It has to be in 4 or 3 and he has to take the first set.

Hey Mr HU , should we be concerned about Rafa's blister on the inside of his hand because it concerns me especailly going against Federer, just cant afford a slip up here to this player. All the pressure is on Rafa, Roger has been playing with house money since he won number 15, IMO.

It's a concern and it's obvious it has affected his play although it's hard to know to what extend. Rafa can be his own enemy mentally so maybe the problem it's exagerated by him.

I agree that Rafa can't let this one go, he is playing for the "GOAT" title and there is only one player in front of him.......another W at the Slam level over him will just add to his resume. I do disagree with your take on Roger; he is not playing with house money........it's his legacy and that only was magnified after winning #15.

I don't agree generally that Rafa is mentally his worst enemy, in most cases, but I take your point that he gets nervous about physical issues, though I would say only when they involve his feet/ankles and knees (his real problem areas. Both have threatened his career in the past.) I think the problem is, as he says, the blister affects his feel and his serve. Plus, he makes those big grip changes. Clearly it's a problem, but I'm hoping it was exaggerated by Dimitrov coming out fast, and being a lesser-known commodity to Rafa.

I do agree with you that Roger is not playing with house money. His legacy IS on the line. If he gets his 18th Major, he's that much farther away for Nadal to catch him.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

One thing that worries me is the following. I have not looked up the exact data
(so the numbers below are to be taken with a grain of salt) but you all will agree with
the general theme.

Roger has become a king in letting go of break points. It looks like he needs
about 10 break point chances to get one break. This seems more pronounced
nowadays. But, this was part of him even in some old FO matches.

Rafa is a king in defending break points that are against him. I think we can
look up the stats somewhere. But, surely Rafa is at least in top 5 in this category
(break points saved).

When you put this combination together, it spells disaster. Hope it
does not happen tommorrow.

 

[Moxie]

If the match is over in 3 sets, winner is Fed.

If the match goes all the way to 5 sets, winner is Rafa.

If the match involves exactly 4 sets, winner can be either one.

I think the match will last only 4 sets, which means I can't predict
the winner.

I'm thinking much the same. If Roger comes out fast, keeps the points short and doesn't allow Rafa in it, he could win in 3. (Though I'm not discounting the possibility of a straights sets win from Nadal, either, if Roger is flat.)

5-setter always favors Rafa in this match-up, physically and mentally. Roger will start feeling like it's Groundhog Day again.

Like most, I think it will go 4 sets, which could be either, though, of course, I voted for Rafa in 4.

PS: While I'm pleased to see the optimism from the Roger fans as to this match-up, which has been absent for a long time, I'd be feeling more confident if you lot weren't. :snigger :laydownlaughing

 

[DarthFed]

There is no pressure on Rafa to serve MUCH better, just be tactically aware of the situation and utilize the surprise "big" serve that he always find in these matches. Rafa will slide the first serve to Roger's backhand at least 80% of the time with perhaps some variation on the deuce court. In the last few years, Rafa's backhand has done a lot of damage to Roger's forehand and the usual CC pattern between 1HBH and Rafa's forehand it's overblown.....at least outside of clay.

Roger has to serve above 65% first serve but they don't have to be big....just accurate in the box. Anything around the 60% range will translate to painful running and at this stage, Roger can't afford to defend much against Rafa.

If Rafa can bring up his level to his average performance for GS SF he takes this; but another day like the one he had against Grigor......Roger has a good chance. It has to be in 4 or 3 and he has to take the first set.

Hey Mr HU , should we be concerned about Rafa's blister on the inside of his hand because it concerns me especailly going against Federer, just cant afford a slip up here to this player. All the pressure is on Rafa, Roger has been playing with house money since he won number 15, IMO.

Roger has never been playing with house money. Great athletes must think for the future and keep racking up the accomplishments. Roger's career is outstanding now but if Rafa hits 18 his career drops to just "good". Fed needs to hit 19, less than that and I think he underachieved. I kind of think that anyways as 3-7 in 5 setters in semis and finals shows. And Rafa is easily hitting 17 too, especially if he wins this. Huge match for Roger's resume.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Speaking of money, I remember Roger saying in an interview that he has to make quarters to break even, with the big team he is travelling with. That's a lot of money. I am happy he profited this time around.

 

[the AntiPusher]

There is no pressure on Rafa to serve MUCH better, just be tactically aware of the situation and utilize the surprise "big" serve that he always find in these matches. Rafa will slide the first serve to Roger's backhand at least 80% of the time with perhaps some variation on the deuce court. In the last few years, Rafa's backhand has done a lot of damage to Roger's forehand and the usual CC pattern between 1HBH and Rafa's forehand it's overblown.....at least outside of clay.

Roger has to serve above 65% first serve but they don't have to be big....just accurate in the box. Anything around the 60% range will translate to painful running and at this stage, Roger can't afford to defend much against Rafa.

If Rafa can bring up his level to his average performance for GS SF he takes this; but another day like the one he had against Grigor......Roger has a good chance. It has to be in 4 or 3 and he has to take the first set.

Hey Mr HU , should we be concerned about Rafa's blister on the inside of his hand because it concerns me especailly going against Federer, just cant afford a slip up here to this player. All the pressure is on Rafa, Roger has been playing with house money since he won number 15, IMO.

Roger has never been playing with house money. Great athletes must think for the future and keep racking up the accomplishments. Roger's career is outstanding now but if Rafa hits 18 his career drops to just "good". Fed needs to hit 19, less than that and I think he underachieved. I kind of think that anyways as 3-7 in 5 setters in semis and finals shows. And Rafa is easily hitting 17 too, especially if he wins this. Huge match for Roger's resume.

Darth,Moxie and HU the reason I still disagree is that there is no guarantees especially with Rafa and his health. If another 2009 or 2012 where Rafa misses the next 5 or 6 Grandslams, then who is closes to surpassing Fed, Djoker or Andy.***The math is not in their favor although they are still five or more years younger than Fed. Darth, I just dont agree with how you feel Rafa is gonna easily get 17 titles , let him get 14 or better yet 15 /16 , then lets revised if it's gonna be easy,IMO.

 

[Moxie]

Roger has never been playing with house money. Great athletes must think for the future and keep racking up the accomplishments. Roger's career is outstanding now but if Rafa hits 18 his career drops to just "good". Fed needs to hit 19, less than that and I think he underachieved. I kind of think that anyways as 3-7 in 5 setters in semis and finals shows. And Rafa is easily hitting 17 too, especially if he wins this. Huge match for Roger's resume.

Darth,Moxie and HU the reason I still disagree is that there is no guarantees especially with Rafa and his health. If another 2009 or 2012 where Rafa misses the next 5 or 6 Grandslams, then who is closes to surpassing Fed, Djoker or Andy.***The math is not in their favor although they are still five or more years younger than Fed. Darth, I just dont agree with how you feel Rafa is gonna easily get 17 titles , let him get 14 or better yet 15 /16 , then lets revised if it's gonna be easy,IMO.

Darth is notoriously pessimistic and hard on Roger. I don't agree, for example, that should Rafa get to 18, then Roger's whole career is merely "good." However, we're not talking about the current field breaking Federer's Slam total, only Rafa, who is his main rival. (And neither Djokovic nor Andy has a realistic chance of breaking it.) If it gets broken by someone else in the future, it's not the same thing. I do agree with you that it's not right to say that Rafa will "easily" get to 17 Majors. That is never easy, even if (knock wood) he stays healthy. However, winning here v. Roger would be a huge step forward. (When they face off, it's like one winning or losing 2, in terms of direct distance gained/lost.) This is their most significant meeting in nearly 3 years.