BNP Paribas Open, Indian Wells, CA, 2025 - ATP Masters 1000

Moxie

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Fils is just a ball basher. How many points did he donate in this final set?
I thought he was much more considered and patient in this match than his usual. He's by far the more aggressive of the two, and he did make UFE's, but I give him some break with the wind.
 
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El Dude

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One thing to consider about younger guys like Fils is that even when it becomes clear that they aren't future super-elites, they could still develop into more garden variety elites. Think of Dominic Thiem, who didn't finish in the top 20 until 2015, which was the year he turned 22. Thiem finished #8 in 2016, #5 in 2017, #8 in 2018, then #4 in 2019, winning his first big title at age 25. He won his only Slam the next year, just before his 27th birthday - and seemed to have arrive as a true elite, finishing #3. Of course things didn't go well after that, but it was due to injury, not decline.

Thiem's rise was a bit more steady than Wawrinka's, but like Stan he didn't reach his best form until after 25. Meaning, it wasn't only Stan that peaked late in the modern era, but Thiem also found his best form at age 26-27. Or we have Andrey Rublev winning his first big title in 2023 at age 25 (Rublev finished #23 in 2019, the year he turned 22 - was on a similar arc as Thiem).

Now Fils finished in the top 20 last year at age 20 - so he's two years ahead of the "Thiem-Rublev timeline." Thiem, at age 22, wouldn't reach his best form for another 4-5 years; we don't know if Rublev has peaked, but it is noteworthy that he didn't win big titles until after he turned 25.

So my point with Fils and other young guys is that even if it becomes clear they won't be in the same category as Sincaraz (and very few players ever are), there's still room for further development. In today's game, players seem to continue developing up until their mid-20s.

Even someone like Felix, who turns 25 later this year, could re-find the #6 form he had in 2022 and maybe even get a bit better, winning a big title or three in second half of this 20s. Or Jack Draper, who I remember someone mentioning way back when he was 15 or 16 years old then never seemed to develop for years, but then popped onto the radar in 2022 when he went from #265 in 2021 to #42 in 2022. He fell to #61 in an injury-plagued 2023, but rose to #14 in 2024, the year he turned 23.

We all like to focus on the greats (or potential greats), and write off players when it becomes clear that they won't become that. So we get excited about Fonzie, and have hopes for Tien and Mensik. But I also really enjoy watching how the next tier or two of players develop, because they often have intriguing arcs. So while I am just as excited as anyone to see how many Slam trophies Jannik, Carlos, and Joao end up with, I'm equally intrigued about who else might win Slam titles and other big titles to "fill in the cracks."

Just a bit of rumination, looking at Fils' loss today and seeming, perhaps inevitable, stumbling towards the "bucket of disappointments." He isn't a disappointment, just settling more into an elite or near elite group of players who aren't as good as the very best, but are still quite good - and interesting in their own right. And best of all, there is a sense that this group will hold a greater share of big titles in the coming years than the comparable group of the Big Four era.
 

kskate2

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I thought he was much more considered and patient in this match than his usual. He's by far the more aggressive of the two, and he did make UFE's, but I give him some break with the wind.
Not just today's match w/ the wind. It's the way he plays. Look at some of his numbers. It's a pattern. He needs more margin or rally tolerance to harness all that power.
 

MargaretMcAleer

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The Dangerous One v Alcaraz just started
El Dude is on a 3 peat at present just like Alcaraz if he wins this year's IW
 

MargaretMcAleer

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Untimely UFE from The Dangerous One early in the TB then he comes up with a wonderful fhand winner
Alcaraz 5-4,
Alcaraz with an inside out fhand winner MP 6-4, Alcaraz came back from being 1-4 down in the 2nd set.
Alcaraz 63 76(4) though it was closer than the score indicated,
Alcaraz into his 4th consecutive SF at IW.
Alcaraz will meet Jack Draper in the SFs
Carlos signs the camera " should I buy a house here'
 
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lomaha

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What? Tallon had a 2-0 H2h against Rune, both on clay, Madrid and Hamburg I am correct, this was their first meeting on a HC,go and google what is the h2h between Rune and Griekspoor and you will get your information okay, thats what I do with all of the H2H's I post okay
It's your own post


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MargaretMcAleer

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What is your point? I am correct what I posted originally? Griekspoor had a H2H 2-0 over Rune both matches were won on clay if you had googled their H2H like I suggested, or you can also go to the ATP website eg on a match where 2 players are involved and they will always give the H2H.Today at IW this was their first match played on a HC which Rune won. Griekspoor still has a H2H lead over Rune which is now 2-1.
 
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MargaretMcAleer

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BTW Jack Draper is 'one win away' from entering the Top Ten for the first time, in his way is Carlos Alcaraz in the SF
Alcaraz leads their H2h 3-1 most recent meeting was at this years AO, Draper retired being down 2 sets.