Young Guns - Wimbledon Edition

[Kieran]

Jerzy just beat Almagro in straight sets after being down 4-1 in the first set. Nice commanding performance.

It was, actually. Overpowering. Most promising of the unpromising chasing pack? Looked like it today, to be fair...

 

[britbox]

Jerzy just beat Almagro in straight sets after being down 4-1 in the first set. Nice commanding performance.

It was, actually. Overpowering. Most promising of the unpromising chasing pack? Looked like it today, to be fair...

Perfect surface for him though. Still, he was impressive today... will be interesting to see how far he can go.

 

[El Dude]

Well thanks to Federer's loss the other day he's got Melzer in the 4R. Melzer is a good player but he's no Federer (and no Almagro). If he gets by Melzer his likely QF opponent would be Paire, another up and coming young player. If he gets by Paire he's got the SF against (probably) Andy Murray, who I have a hard time seeing Janowicz beating. Yet.

 

[Riotbeard]

His drop shot is so effective, because he can push people back with his power, and then all of the sudden hit a great touch shot. He is really unique amongst the big men.

 

[Haelfix]

Watching him play a few times over the last couple months I'm struck by three things:

1) His game looks smooth and flowing, thus the "Baby Federer" appellation.
2) He's got no standout weapons. He does a couple things very well - his serve CAN be very good and his single-handed backhand LOOKS nice, but nothing is really high caliber.
3) He's very casual and without that killer instinct.

The first factor had made it easy to overlook 2 and 3, or at least think or hope that they'll come along. But I don't see it. Actually, he reminds me a bit of Marin Cilic for some reason and I think that's his realistic upside at this point.

The problem with Dimitrov is that neither his bh or his fh is as effective as Federer's and so he can't quite get into a consistent point construction pattern. Particularly the rally shots. He actually hits pretty nice running fhs and bhs, and has a really nice slice and the serve is also pretty good. He also has that little touch of genius that Roger has, where he can hit some really unusual shots.

But without those bread and butter baseline shots that seem so ubiquitous in todays game, he just can't quite settle into a winning pattern.

 

[tented]

Watching him play a few times over the last couple months I'm struck by three things:

1) His game looks smooth and flowing, thus the "Baby Federer" appellation.
2) He's got no standout weapons. He does a couple things very well - his serve CAN be very good and his single-handed backhand LOOKS nice, but nothing is really high caliber.
3) He's very casual and without that killer instinct.

The first factor had made it easy to overlook 2 and 3, or at least think or hope that they'll come along. But I don't see it. Actually, he reminds me a bit of Marin Cilic for some reason and I think that's his realistic upside at this point.

The problem with Dimitrov is that neither his bh or his fh is as effective as Federer's and so he can't quite get into a consistent point construction pattern. Particularly the rally shots. He actually hits pretty nice running fhs and bhs, and has a really nice slice and the serve is also pretty good. He also has that little touch of genius that Roger has, where he can hit some really unusual shots.

But without those bread and butter baseline shots that seem so ubiquitous in todays game, he just can't quite settle into a winning pattern.

Do you think he's still capable of becoming a great player (perhaps in a few years?), or do you think he has pretty much reached his peak? Do you think a different coach would help?

I ask, because I remember you first mentioning Dimitrov a couple of years ago on the old site, in a thread called "The ATP: Is Young Talent Obsolete?" You wrote:

"Its interesting, but another factor I think is that the talent in the younger generation have games that are relatively complex. Its not like they are showing up on tour with simple game plans like 16 year old Rafa (eg run everything down, hit cross court looping forehands as hard as I can every time). Dimitrov and company have games that are subtle, with a lot of moving parts and will likely take longer to develop (alla Rafter or Federer)."

For some reason, that stuck with me, so I always think of you in association with Dimitrov, and would be interested in your thoughts.

 

[Haelfix]

Its hard to tell really. I mean the difference on the ATP tour is really small between all these guys. One likes to see sort of steady progression without too many bumps and slumps. That's why its so discouraging to see Raonic regress.

As far as Dimitrov, I really am not prepared to say where he will be. Technically he still has a lot of options out there, and he has improved in several key areas, so it is a question of whether he can pull it all together.

I will say that he still doesn't quite have that wow that's a ridiculous weapon attribute that Rafa/Fed and Novak all had. On the other hand, I do think that he can beat Novak and Murray from time to time, so with enough inspiration I think he could eventually at least compete for a slam.

 

[Kieran]

Dimitrov,

On the other hand, I do think that he can beat Novak and Murray from time to time, so with enough inspiration I think he could eventually at least compete for a slam.

I edited your post so I could definitively cut to the chase and reply:

Never!

 

[herios]

I heard John Mac saying at RG that Dimitorv will be a top 10 by the end of the year, which i disagreed with right back then, even more so now.
That being said, I think he is developing slowly and he'll arrive there in the end, but not this year. I am not so dissapointed by him as I am by Raonic, especially with his result. Losing to a big server, without haveing even won a set, is a no, no, considering that Sujsling is not much of a threat himself.

And now about Jerzy, especially considering that I was one of those who did hop on the bandwagon back in November.
I think he could become great, all signs are there. This might be his breaktough in a slam, running into his first SF. If he'll manage to do it, I hope it won't end up a la Cilic 2010 revisited.
I always thought that jerzy's best slam could be Wimbledon, because of his style and here was a year ago I heard about him, after making a 3R unexpectedly as a qualifier. he was ranked 136, now he is 22. Big difference!
I hope he stays cool and not get caught into the hype the next few days, because ESPN folks are starting to talk about him as well, as the potential SF'st, and the bookies are picking him with a stong margin to be playing Murray there.
I also hope his elbow will be OK, as i read he had some recent issues, this spring.

 

[El Dude]

I don't know, Kieran. As I've said before, I don't see him become an elite player but he might not have to be to compete for a Slam in a few years. Three years from now he'll be 25 and had that much more time to develop his game, the "moving parts" that Haelfix mentioned, and Djokovic and Murray will be 29 and perhaps wearing down; Rafa will be 30 and probably in a wheelchair. Who will be competing for Slams? The point being, there's going to be a window starting in about a year when Rafa/Novak/Andy are starting to lose a half-step (Rafa's there already, imo) and the Young Guns will be a bit improved...and before the next truly elite players have arrived. Think 2000-2003, a period of four years in which no one player won two Slams in a year. I could see us having a similar period from around 2014 to 2016 or so, maybe beyond considering that there's no top talent on the horizon yet.

 

[herios]

One of the last 2 standing young men, Tomic wins the first set against Richie. Can he turn around his season right here where he was in the QF before?

 

[El Dude]

He has the talent, or some talent at least. I see Tomic, like Dimitrov, as a potential top 10 player but without the arsenal (and perhaps spirit) to be a true elite. But again, it may be a matter of opportunity - Tomic, Dimitrov, Raonic, and Janowicz in their mid-20s might be able to beat Djokovic and Murray as they approach 30.

 

[Moxie]

I've been on the Janowicz bandwagon since Bercy, even for all of Kieran's sneering. You can keep the rest of them.

 

[herios]

I've been on the Janowicz bandwagon since Bercy, even for all of Kieran's sneering. You can keep the rest of them.

Moxie, i was looking at him yesterday in his presser, his face reminded me of Marat, slight resemblance, although not as good looking, but still, he might develop a career similar to Marat in the end, you never know

and...Tomic just won the 3rd set, suddenly

 

[El Dude]

I don't quite see the Safin comp, mainly because Safin lacked drive and focus where Jerzy seems to be very much invested in the game. I think you could argue that Marat Safin SHOULD have been the dominant player between Sampragassi and Fedal, and even challenged Federer for much of his career (Safin is only a year and a half older), but he just couldn't focus. Safin also won a Slam at the age of 20; Janowicz is 22 right now. That might speak to the differences in the game now vs. 13 years ago, but certainly Janowicz is breaking through later.

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By the way, if Jerzy wins his next match he'll be in the top 20 for the first time ever. Hopefully for good.

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The more I watch Bernard Tomic against Gasquet (he just won), the more I become a believer. Its important to remember that he's a fully two years younger than Raonic and Janowicz, and a year and a half younger than Dimitrov. If Haelfix's theory of "moving parts" is true of Dimitrov, it doubly applies to Tomic - who is both younger and has had better results at Slams. I'm not saying he's going to be an elite player, but that I'm convinced that the possibility is there.

 

[golds girl]

You guys seem to have captured all of the top young guns. Noticed lack of mention of any French young guns. There's a good crop of current Top 20 players: Tsonga, Simon and Gasquet....but let's face it, no one expects any of these players to make it to a Slam Final and they're not getting any younger. Seems to be an imminent drought for French tennis. Thoughts?

 

[Riotbeard]

I've been on the Janowicz bandwagon since Bercy, even for all of Kieran's sneering. You can keep the rest of them.

I am with you, and have been since bercy. I thought people were far too hard on jerzy for the first quarter of the season. Whatever post-bercy growing pains jerzy had, they were brief, and honestly not that painful.

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The more I watch Bernard Tomic against Gasquet (he just won), the more I become a believer. Its important to remember that he's a fully two years younger than Raonic and Janowicz, and a year and a half younger than Dimitrov. If Haelfix's theory of "moving parts" is true of Dimitrov, it doubly applies to Tomic - who is both younger and has had better results at Slams. I'm not saying he's going to be an elite player, but that I'm convinced that the possibility is there.

I agree while I don't care for bernie or his style, he has a much stronger tendency to step up when it matters than Dimitrov or raonic.

 

[Kieran]

I've been on the Janowicz bandwagon since Bercy, even for all of Kieran's sneering. You can keep the rest of them.

I always said he was gonna be greater than Sampras! :snigger

I still have a wait and see thingy with these youngsters. We haven't seen anything outta the ordinary yet...

 

[Riotbeard]

I've been on the Janowicz bandwagon since Bercy, even for all of Kieran's sneering. You can keep the rest of them.

I always said he was gonna be greater than Sampras! :snigger

I still have a wait and see thingy with these youngsters. We haven't seen anything outta the ordinary yet...

If you don't talk up any other youngsters (as Jerzy has had the best results of them, at least at a big tournament), then I respect this decision.

However if I catch you wearing a Dimitrov shirt, one might suspect hypocrisy.

 

[Moxie]

I've been on the Janowicz bandwagon since Bercy, even for all of Kieran's sneering. You can keep the rest of them.

Moxie, i was looking at him yesterday in his presser, his face reminded me of Marat, slight resemblance, although not as good looking, but still, he might develop a career similar to Marat in the end, you never know

I agree he looks rather like Marat, not as handsome, no, but also overall physically. I see that El Dude disagrees with the comparison, and I hope JJ has more drive, but Safin didn't have a terrible career. I'm sure Janowicz would take 2 Slams, at this point.