Year-End #1 vs. ATP ranked #1 at year's end

[shawnbm]

I have experienced it myself, at McDaid's near the Westbury Hotel. Slainte!

 

[Kieran]

^ You're on crack if you think that. That was pathetic from Roger even for it being on slow-medium hards. If he doesn't at least reach 5 on grass vs. Rafa that'd be beyond weak, problem is we know what happens if it goes 5 so Roger would have to win in 3 or 4. He took a much better grass court player to 5 in the final this year...

Well, let's hope they get to sort this one out on court. Seriously, I can't see Federer getting a set off Rafa in a major from this point on. If there's one guy who'd show up Federer's age, it's Rafa...

 

[Front242]

^ You're on crack if you think that. That was pathetic from Roger even for it being on slow-medium hards. If he doesn't at least reach 5 on grass vs. Rafa that'd be beyond weak, problem is we know what happens if it goes 5 so Roger would have to win in 3 or 4. He took a much better grass court player to 5 in the final this year...

Well, let's hope they get to sort this one out on court. Seriously, I can't see Federer getting a set off Rafa in a major from this point on. If there's one guy who'd show up Federer's age, it's Rafa...

Nah, I'd say it's Federer himself shows his age these days. The 3rd set TBs in Indian Wells and Wimbledon this year, both against Novak were abysmal and show how quickly his game goes to pieces. It's more about lack of focus. Losing a 6-1 set to Ferrer at Cincy is another clear example of his form going completely down the toilet out of nowhere. There's no way Roger Federer should lose a 6-1 set on one of the tour's fastest hard courts 6-1 to David f'n Ferrer other than pure lack of concentration that just comes with having played so many matches and being 33.

 

[DarthFed]

^ You're on crack if you think that. That was pathetic from Roger even for it being on slow-medium hards. If he doesn't at least reach 5 on grass vs. Rafa that'd be beyond weak, problem is we know what happens if it goes 5 so Roger would have to win in 3 or 4. He took a much better grass court player to 5 in the final this year...

Well, let's hope they get to sort this one out on court. Seriously, I can't see Federer getting a set off Rafa in a major from this point on. If there's one guy who'd show up Federer's age, it's Rafa...

Roger's been old for 6 years, doesn't mean he has to be a scrub. Sometimes he plays like one, age can do that, but not most of the time. On his worst day he shouldn't lose in straights to Nadal on any kind of a fast court, I think you're reaching here.

 

[Front242]

The AO is a pretty slow court and yet he only lost that TB 7-4 earlier this year. Not exactly mad earth shattering domination by Nadal and Roger didn't even play well in that match.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

^ You're on crack if you think that. That was pathetic from Roger even for it being on slow-medium hards. If he doesn't at least reach 5 on grass vs. Rafa that'd be beyond weak, problem is we know what happens if it goes 5 so Roger would have to win in 3 or 4. He took a much better grass court player to 5 in the final this year...

Well, let's hope they get to sort this one out on court. Seriously, I can't see Federer getting a set off Rafa in a major from this point on. If there's one guy who'd show up Federer's age, it's Rafa...

This is pure hyperbole. May be Roger can't win matches against Rafa from now on,
but surely not sets. Even matches, I am willing to concede only at AO and RG. At other
GSs I think we need to see them fight it out to see what happens and nothing is givne.

 

[Front242]

Would be nice if Rafa played the WTF and Roger played to potential unlike last year. Then we'll see who doesn't win a set. A good serving day would be key, not aces though...aim for a 140mph bullet straight at the appendix :snigger

 

[Kieran]

Would be nice if Rafa played the WTF and Roger played to potential unlike last year. Then we'll see who doesn't win a set. A good serving day would be key, not aces though...aim for a 140mph bullet straight at the appendix :snigger

And make sure he hasn't followed the serve into the net when that bad boy erupts! :gross:

 

[brokenshoelace]

^ You're on crack if you think that. That was pathetic from Roger even for it being on slow-medium hards. If he doesn't at least reach 5 on grass vs. Rafa that'd be beyond weak, problem is we know what happens if it goes 5 so Roger would have to win in 3 or 4. He took a much better grass court player to 5 in the final this year...

I swear 5 months ago you were saying you believed Novak is the weakest of the big 4 on grass. Now he's a "much better grass court player." You're really developing a habit of changing narratives the way it suits you.

 

[DarthFed]

^ You're on crack if you think that. That was pathetic from Roger even for it being on slow-medium hards. If he doesn't at least reach 5 on grass vs. Rafa that'd be beyond weak, problem is we know what happens if it goes 5 so Roger would have to win in 3 or 4. He took a much better grass court player to 5 in the final this year...

I swear 5 months ago you were saying you believed Novak is the weakest of the big 4 on grass. Now he's a "much better grass court player." You're really developing a habit of changing narratives the way it suits you.

When in the world did I say he was the weakest of the big 4 on grass currently? Up until this Wimbledon he had the weakest record on grass of the big 4. There is a difference.

 

[brokenshoelace]

^ You're on crack if you think that. That was pathetic from Roger even for it being on slow-medium hards. If he doesn't at least reach 5 on grass vs. Rafa that'd be beyond weak, problem is we know what happens if it goes 5 so Roger would have to win in 3 or 4. He took a much better grass court player to 5 in the final this year...

I swear 5 months ago you were saying you believed Novak is the weakest of the big 4 on grass. Now he's a "much better grass court player." You're really developing a habit of changing narratives the way it suits you.

When in the world did I say he was the weakest of the big 4 on grass currently? Up until this Wimbledon he had the weakest record on grass of the big 4. There is a difference.

No, that's not the point. You've always talked about his game on grass being shaky.

 

[DarthFed]

Well it's probably his worst surface, that said I'd have to be the biggest idiot in the world to say Rafa is better than him on grass right now. If anything I may have favored Rafa over Nole if they were to meet in the final at this last Wimbledon (given how bad Nole had been in finals I favored Roger by a good margin too) but it goes without saying Djokovic is about 5 times less likely to get upset in rounds 1-6 than Rafa on grass.

 

[shawnbm]

Even though Nole has now bagged 2 titles at SW19 and 5 other hard court slams, it seems to me that he is at least as competent on clay as he is on grass. He has beaten Federer and Nadal on grass in the Wimbledon finals and he has lost to them both in the semis and finals of Paris. So, it looks as though the three of them are pretty good and both of the organic surfaces.

 

[DarthFed]

^ Despite having 2 Wimbledons and no RG's I too would say he is mostly better on clay. It is harder to win RG with Rafa around than it has been to win Wimbledon especially with Roger way past it now.

But then you look at USO where the surface should be better for Nole than Wimbledon and you realize 2 things: Nole has done pretty well for himself on the grass and has underachieved badly at USO up to this point.

 

[Federberg]

I don't think there are any absolutes. Match ups are the key here. In a Wimbledon final I would still favour Roger over Novak, particularly with his new game. If only he'd reached this level of competence at SW19. Here's how I see it...

AO:

Novak > Rafa ; Novak > Roger ; Rafa > Roger ; Novak > Roger ; Rafa > Murray ; Roger > Murray

RG:

Rafa > Novak ; Rafa > Roger ; Rafa > Murray ; Novak > Roger ; Novak > Murray ; Roger > Murray

SW19:

Novak > Rafa ; Roger > Novak ; Murray > Novak ; Rafa = Roger ; Rafa = Murray ; Roger > Murray

US:

Novak = Rafa ; Novak > Murray (if no wind otherwise it flips) ; Murray > Rafa ; Novak = Roger ; Roger > Murray ; Roger = Rafa

This of course is my opinion, and assumes they're all playing at their current best.. (which means Murray is back to where he was!)

 

[brokenshoelace]

Well it's probably his worst surface, that said I'd have to be the biggest idiot in the world to say Rafa is better than him on grass right now. If anything I may have favored Rafa over Nole if they were to meet in the final at this last Wimbledon (given how bad Nole had been in finals I favored Roger by a good margin too) but it goes without saying Djokovic is about 5 times less likely to get upset in rounds 1-6 than Rafa on grass.

Djokovic is definitely better on grass now. Nadal would have to actually get deep at Wimbledon to have that claim. But, I'm interested in why you think Roger would be playing someone who's 5 times worse than Djokovic on grass if he were to meet Rafa.

I actually think the match-up on grass is still annoying for Federer, whereas it's less magnified on some hard courts. Federer already has a hard time returning Rafa's serve, and this is worse on grass (a fact that was on display in 2007 and 2008 when they played). Roger can't hurt him with the backhand on grass (unlike some hards), and has to rely on great serving, attacking with the forehand (which in fairness, he gets more chances to do on grass) and finishing points at the net, where he actually has hurt Rafa in the past. But still, between Roger's returning, his inability to shake off the annoying pattern in their match-up on grass, and the fact that Nadal will generally be the one with the chance to strike the first meaningful forehand of the rally (hence outplaying Roger from the baseline in both their 2007 and 2008 meetings, and hell, even parts of 2006), I can't see how Nadal wouldn't be the favorite. Look at how good his backhand looks every time he plays Roger too, and that's not because it magically clicks either, but because he can open up the court and then stretch Roger on his forehand side.

What bodes well for Roger though, is that his movement is sharp again (he would stand no chance on grass otherwise, against any of the elite, really).

 

[DarthFed]

^ The matchup is much less annoying on grass IMO. Roger can finish points quicker and can do some damage at net though part of the story of 2008 is he did awful at net. And aside from a court with a dead bounce Roger's backhand can't hold up better against Nadal anywhere than it does at Wimbledon. But the reason Roger isn't on 9+ Wimbledons now is his ROS has been putrid there for many years. It was one of the few things he did poorly this Wimbledon too. It was bad to epic proportions in 2008 when Rafa's serve had increased from poor to average. He made Rafa look like Sampras serving that day. Roger's movement is a secondary issue, for him it is about serving well and doing damage with the forehand (the latter was the other thing he didn't do well this past final).

Good movement might help the forehand but it didn't this year. Roger moved great but was easily outplayed from the baseline in that match. It's more the aggressive mindset and the return of serve that has failed him in recent years. Roger made the small comeback in 2008 due to going for it on the forehand more but the awful return kept him from winning. I'd make Rafa the slight favorite for 2 reasons: if it goes 5 the match is over, so Rafa can win in 3-5 whereas Roger only has 2 options and the 2nd reason is the baggage.