Year-End #1 vs. ATP ranked #1 at year's end

[Federberg]

I agree. It's worth pointing out that even at RG, he stands as good a chance as anyone not name Rafa or Novak. Not saying I think he could ever win it again, but I just don't see anyone else apart from those 2 who is flat out better than him.

 

[DarthFed]

Yeah at RG it's not just the fact Rafa and Nole are overwhelming favorites over him, there's just too many players who have a decent chance against him on the way to the semis. If Roger is playing well at the other 3 majors it is probably just Rafa, Nole and Berd who are favorites or, in Berd's case have a good chance, to beat him. And at Wimbledon I'm not sure you have anyone as a clear favorite over him. Doesn't make him the favorite to win it as it's not a surprise if he loses but aside from 2013 who did we really expect to beat him the past 10 years entering the tournament?

 

[Federberg]

I'm not sure Berdman can beat this version of Federer. The movement and variety would be too much for him. In any case I've always been of the view that when Roger's playing well he'll beat him. What's changed over the last few years is that he goes from round to round, and you just never know!

 

[shawnbm]

Roger is playing miles better than he was in 2013 and most of 2012. The new racquet and better movement makes him a challenge in any event. He has upped his game this year rather dramatically. He has a shot in most any event, including clay. Folks are going to have really play well to beat him.

 

[DarthFed]

I'm not sure Berdman can beat this version of Federer. The movement and variety would be too much for him. In any case I've always been of the view that when Roger's playing well he'll beat him. What's changed over the last few years is that he goes from round to round, and you just never know!

Berd just has really overpowered him often the past 4 years, in a similar way as Cilic did at USO. Granted I don't think Berd has ever played quite like that but it was a similar formula. If Roger is playing at his best you definitely favor him over Berd but if he is playing normal then Berd seems to be the 3rd worst player for Roger to face.

 

[brokenshoelace]

I'm not sure Berdman can beat this version of Federer. The movement and variety would be too much for him.

He can. That sort of fire power troubles Federer these days. He actually looks wobbly at times handling it. It would depend on the surface though. On grass, I'd favor Roger handily, or even indoors.

 

[fedfan]

I agree and I doubt Roger is moaning about the year he has had. No one is better at getting over tough defeats. Also Roger has been the most consistent player on tour. I'm sure he is happy with how he has played this year but is he happy with how it's turned out results-wise so far? As you say it's speculation on our parts but I think the man is still ambitious when it comes to majors and should be.

Darth, please grasp and process these words...

"He's 33 and far removed from his prime."

Others have said it and it appears to go in one ear and out the other.

What goes with age? Stamina in best of 5 especially against top players, consistency, nerves, etc.

It is quite remarkable what he's done this year.

If he was slamless at 28, I don't think anyone would disagree with you.

Oh I know bud. I'm not delusional enough to think that Roger should be mopping up multiple slams like the old days and I doubt even he thinks it can be like that anymore. But Roger was a remarkable 23-32 year old so I'm not surprised he is playing great for his age. And he is the all-time slam champion who still has plenty of skill clearly. His expectations are naturally lower but should they be low period?

Can someone with the greatest career to date be happy just going deep at slams and winning a couple Masters? Honestly I hope the answer is no in his case. As mentioned before if he wins YEC and/or gets to #1 that is a different case and it'd be monumental. But in my mind he still has the ability to win Wimbledon and USO(people might think I'm nuts for saying the latter) and truthfully he doesn't need much to go his way there to make it happen. Just cut through the first 4-5 matches like he did at Wimbledon and he has (or at least had) a very good chance.

I think he has the ability to win Wimbledon and outside chance at the USO as well, especially with the day off now between the semis and finals in NY. What I disagree with you strongly on this is he needs the stars to align, meaning NO Rafa for obvious reasons (he also seems to mentally relax more knowing he's out) and only one of Nole and Murray to go through, or neither, ideally. At 33 he doesn't have the stamina to go through say a Murray qtr, Rafa semi, then have anything for a Nole in the final. No way. (I get his record with Andy in slams, but still it's not easy these days)

The draw broke his way at Wimbledon(only faced Nole, had Raonic in semis) and REALLY broke his way in NY(No Rafa, Nole, or Murray) and don't know if that will happen again with a very limited window.

The stars need to align my man.

 

[Kieran]

^^^ The stars have aligned. This is what it looks like now...

 

[DarthFed]

I agree and I doubt Roger is moaning about the year he has had. No one is better at getting over tough defeats. Also Roger has been the most consistent player on tour. I'm sure he is happy with how he has played this year but is he happy with how it's turned out results-wise so far? As you say it's speculation on our parts but I think the man is still ambitious when it comes to majors and should be.

Darth, please grasp and process these words...

"He's 33 and far removed from his prime."

Others have said it and it appears to go in one ear and out the other.

What goes with age? Stamina in best of 5 especially against top players, consistency, nerves, etc.

It is quite remarkable what he's done this year.

If he was slamless at 28, I don't think anyone would disagree with you.

Oh I know bud. I'm not delusional enough to think that Roger should be mopping up multiple slams like the old days and I doubt even he thinks it can be like that anymore. But Roger was a remarkable 23-32 year old so I'm not surprised he is playing great for his age. And he is the all-time slam champion who still has plenty of skill clearly. His expectations are naturally lower but should they be low period?

Can someone with the greatest career to date be happy just going deep at slams and winning a couple Masters? Honestly I hope the answer is no in his case. As mentioned before if he wins YEC and/or gets to #1 that is a different case and it'd be monumental. But in my mind he still has the ability to win Wimbledon and USO(people might think I'm nuts for saying the latter) and truthfully he doesn't need much to go his way there to make it happen. Just cut through the first 4-5 matches like he did at Wimbledon and he has (or at least had) a very good chance.

I think he has the ability to win Wimbledon and outside chance at the USO as well, especially with the day off now between the semis and finals in NY. What I disagree with you strongly on this is he needs the stars to align, meaning NO Rafa for obvious reasons (he also seems to mentally relax more knowing he's out) and only one of Nole and Murray to go through, or neither, ideally. At 33 he doesn't have the stamina to go through say a Murray qtr, Rafa semi, then have anything for a Nole in the final. No way. (I get his record with Andy in slams, but still it's not easy these days)

The draw broke his way at Wimbledon(only faced Nole, had Raonic in semis) and REALLY broke his way in NY(No Rafa, Nole, or Murray) and don't know if that will happen again with a very limited window.

The stars need to align my man.

I don't think he needs any stars to align at Wimbledon. It's not stars aligning if Rafa gets beat early in the tournament, it's the expectation these days. And if it's a Murray QF, Rafa semi and Nole final that's the stars being very very nasty

The USO you might be right, as in I don't think he could take both Rafa and Nole there. In fact that's definitely not happening. But I wouldn't mind Roger facing anyone at Wimbledon at this point. He is not necessarily a big favorite over a lot of players, mainly the other top 3 (including Murray for this) but they aren't over him either and that includes Nadal. I wouldn't mind seeing him face Wafa at Wimbledon one more time.

 

[Kieran]

I wouldn't mind seeing him face Wafa at Wimbledon one more time.

Neither would I, brother. I get nervous when Rafa faces Nole in a final. But Roger? :nono

And who knows, next year with the extra week to make the transition...

 

[DarthFed]

Maybe he will make it all the way to the QF. That extra week has never been the problem. Even when he was making the final he got through the 1st week by the skin of his teeth. Now that his game has dropped he's extra worthless on the quicker grass, losing to a few stooges.

Roger would have less chance in a final as you figure he'd wet the bed. I would hope it's a semi and he plays better than last time they met at Wimbledon. Shouldn't be difficult.

 

[Kieran]

Maybe he will make it all the way to the QF. That extra week has never been the problem. Even when he was making the final he got through the 1st week by the skin of his teeth. Now that his game has dropped he's extra worthless on the quicker grass, losing to a few stooges.

Actually, the transition from clay to grass has always been the problem in achieving the channel slam. And most particularly as he's getting older and he takes longer to recover from the perils and adventures of clay. There's no guarantees anywhere, but if Rafa wins Paris again next year, he'll have a week of rest before getting on his grass shoes. That will make a massive difference...

 

[DarthFed]

No, the biggest challenge is that it takes a totally different skill set (moreso in the past but we won't beat that horse to a millionth death) to be successful on clay vs. grass. Rafa has done well to get a couple Wimbledons but the 1st week has been his weakest at pretty much any tournament. Many years he survived the nobodies but the last few years he hasn't.

 

[Kieran]

No, the biggest challenge is that it takes a totally different skill set (moreso in the past but we won't beat that horse to a millionth death) to be successful on clay vs. grass. Rafa has done well to get a couple Wimbledons but the 1st week has been his weakest at pretty much any tournament. Many years he survived the nobodies but the last few years he hasn't.

Well actually, he got to the second week this year.

It's possible that he'll struggle everywhere from now on, his health issues are overlapping and multiplying. Bring back the knees, I say - he was doing better with them. But if he wins Paris next year, and has the extra week to frolic in the sun, trust me, he'll be like a Manacor bull in a china shop at Wimbo...

 

[DarthFed]

Or he'll suck and you'll need another excuse

 

[fedfan]

I agree and I doubt Roger is moaning about the year he has had. No one is better at getting over tough defeats. Also Roger has been the most consistent player on tour. I'm sure he is happy with how he has played this year but is he happy with how it's turned out results-wise so far? As you say it's speculation on our parts but I think the man is still ambitious when it comes to majors and should be.

Darth, please grasp and process these words...

"He's 33 and far removed from his prime."

Others have said it and it appears to go in one ear and out the other.

What goes with age? Stamina in best of 5 especially against top players, consistency, nerves, etc.

It is quite remarkable what he's done this year.

If he was slamless at 28, I don't think anyone would disagree with you.

Oh I know bud. I'm not delusional enough to think that Roger should be mopping up multiple slams like the old days and I doubt even he thinks it can be like that anymore. But Roger was a remarkable 23-32 year old so I'm not surprised he is playing great for his age. And he is the all-time slam champion who still has plenty of skill clearly. His expectations are naturally lower but should they be low period?

Can someone with the greatest career to date be happy just going deep at slams and winning a couple Masters? Honestly I hope the answer is no in his case. As mentioned before if he wins YEC and/or gets to #1 that is a different case and it'd be monumental. But in my mind he still has the ability to win Wimbledon and USO(people might think I'm nuts for saying the latter) and truthfully he doesn't need much to go his way there to make it happen. Just cut through the first 4-5 matches like he did at Wimbledon and he has (or at least had) a very good chance.

I think he has the ability to win Wimbledon and outside chance at the USO as well, especially with the day off now between the semis and finals in NY. What I disagree with you strongly on this is he needs the stars to align, meaning NO Rafa for obvious reasons (he also seems to mentally relax more knowing he's out) and only one of Nole and Murray to go through, or neither, ideally. At 33 he doesn't have the stamina to go through say a Murray qtr, Rafa semi, then have anything for a Nole in the final. No way. (I get his record with Andy in slams, but still it's not easy these days)

The draw broke his way at Wimbledon(only faced Nole, had Raonic in semis) and REALLY broke his way in NY(No Rafa, Nole, or Murray) and don't know if that will happen again with a very limited window.

The stars need to align my man.

I don't think he needs any stars to align at Wimbledon. It's not stars aligning if Rafa gets beat early in the tournament, it's the expectation these days. And if it's a Murray QF, Rafa semi and Nole final that's the stars being very very nasty

The USO you might be right, as in I don't think he could take both Rafa and Nole there. In fact that's definitely not happening. But I wouldn't mind Roger facing anyone at Wimbledon at this point. He is not necessarily a big favorite over a lot of players, mainly the other top 3 (including Murray for this) but they aren't over him either and that includes Nadal. I wouldn't mind seeing him face Wafa at Wimbledon one more time.

As you're fully aware, if Rafa gets to the second week of Wimbledon he's very dangerous. And I don't put much stock in his 2-3 finals record as he was still learning the surface and Fed was in his prime the first two losses. It was also obvious he was gaining on Fed here in that three year stretch.

Too much overall psychological H2H baggage, regardless of surface, and age to discount IMO.

 

[DarthFed]

The psychological baggage is the only thing that worries me if they ever meet again on grass. Matchup wise it is one Roger shouldn't have ever lost and I'd say today that still holds true.

 

[Kieran]

The psychological baggage is the only thing that worries me if they ever meet again on grass. Matchup wise it is one Roger shouldn't have ever lost and I'd say today that still holds true.

Come off it, brother. If they meet at any slam from now on, I'd be surprised if Fed takes a set. He did well getting to a tiebreak in Oz...

 

[DarthFed]

^ You're on crack if you think that. That was pathetic from Roger even for it being on slow-medium hards. If he doesn't at least reach 5 on grass vs. Rafa that'd be beyond weak, problem is we know what happens if it goes 5 so Roger would have to win in 3 or 4. He took a much better grass court player to 5 in the final this year...

 

[shawnbm]

Brother Kieran will be the first to tell ye that the crack is very good in Dublin!