Wimbledon 2024 Men's Final - Alcaraz v. Djokovic

[Moxie]

I promised you a poll.

 

[El Dude]

So far 3 of 3 voted for Alcaraz in 4. Novak looked the best he's looked since 2023, but Alcaraz is surging. This is his time.

 

[Moxie]

So far 3 of 3 voted for Alcaraz in 4. Novak looked the best he's looked since 2023, but Alcaraz is surging. This is his time.

Let's face it, it's the smart vote. That means that Alcaraz either starts slow, or has a one-set dip, both of which are possible. It's also possible that Novak is just ready to be his old self again, and Carlitos has a lot of stress about defending. But I wouldn't lay money on that one, or not for long. @MargaretMcAleer said something bold on the Wimbledon thread today, that Alcaraz has a higher ceiling that Djokovic. I think she's right. Certainly at this stage of Novak's career. But Charlie has a lot of weapons. I do think he has more than Novak And he's not just in the puppy stage of managing them.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

At that start of the mens tournament I was quitely confident of Sinner winning the title,well that didnt come to fruition,
Carlos to me has that 'higher ceiling' in matches, he can go to when he is in trouble in matches, we saw that at the SF at RG against Sinner and again when he was pushed to 5 sets by Tiafoe
Carlos to me still hasnt shown his best form though I am certain he will raise his level in the final
Carlos in 4 sets and complete the Channel Slam

 

[Moxie]

Just to shout out the draw challenge, if Novak wins on Sunday, @don_fabio will win it outright. No pressure, Don! LOL.

 

[nehmeth]

As a fan who thought it was questionable for him to play so soon after surgery, I’ve watched Novak improve over this fortnight. His 37th final at 37 years of age. He played some beautiful tennis in his match with Lorenzo. He is not expected to win on Sunday, but I’m hoping he will bring his resolve, no matter what it takes, that he will be the one standing when the match is over. Djokovic in four.

 

[Moxie]

As a fan who thought it was questionable for him to play so soon after surgery, I’ve watched Novak improve over this fortnight. His 37th final at 37 years of age. He played some beautiful tennis in his match with Lorenzo. He is not expected to win on Sunday, but I’m hoping he will bring his resolve, no matter what it takes, that he will be the one standing when the match is over. Djokovic in four.

Well, one of Novak's favorite things seems to be proving everyone else wrong.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I don't want Djokovic to win, but I don't have a good feeling about this one. For once, Djokovic is in the position where he is the hunter, not the hunted. He is not the favorite and is looking for revenge after losing the Wimbledon final last year. I see Djokovic winning in 5 tight sets.

 

[El Dude]

Let's face it, it's the smart vote. That means that Alcaraz either starts slow, or has a one-set dip, both of which are possible. It's also possible that Novak is just ready to be his old self again, and Carlitos has a lot of stress about defending. But I wouldn't lay money on that one, or not for long. @MargaretMcAleer said something bold on the Wimbledon thread today, that Alcaraz has a higher ceiling that Djokovic. I think she's right. Certainly at this stage of Novak's career. But Charlie has a lot of weapons. I do think he has more than Novak And he's not just in the puppy stage of managing them.

I think with those two we see a clear contrast of mentality and motivation. Carlos has that quality of "magic" to him - a great player coming fully into his power; the question now, is how great. He clearly loves playing, wants to win, and is on the "up and up." Novak, on the other hand, seems a bit (mentally/spiritually) fatigued, or at least a quality of "Here we go again." He's close to the end, and while he's playing well overall, he doesn't have that magic spark - except in moments. But even then, it feels a bit like a "Novakbot."

To put that another way, I agree with Margaret in that "the higher ceiling" comes from wanting it so bad and digging so deep. I'm sure Novak wants #25 - if nothing else, because it is a nice round number (one-quarter of a hundred!). But does he really want it, like we know Carlos does?

I suppose the counter argument is that the reverse could be true: Novak knows he doesn't have many chances left--he's no longer in the "one or more" Slam wins category, but "0 plus" category. Plus there's the factor of #8, tying Roger's record. So maybe he really wants this one, in a similar way that poor Roger really wanted 2019. Carlos will have tons more chances. I'm sure he really wants this, but he'll also be able to shrug it off, while for Novak the doubt will be in his mind: "That might have been my last Wimbledon final."

 

[the AntiPusher]

As a fan who thought it was questionable for him to play so soon after surgery, I’ve watched Novak improve over this fortnight. His 37th final at 37 years of age. He played some beautiful tennis in his match with Lorenzo. He is not expected to win on Sunday, but I’m hoping he will bring his resolve, no matter what it takes, that he will be the one standing when the match is over. Djokovic in four.

Novak knows everything on Centre court..he was an absolute master expert today vs Musetti

 

[don_fabio]

Just to shout out the draw challenge, if Novak wins on Sunday, @don_fabio will win it outright. No pressure, Don! LOL.

I sneaked that pick while all eyes were on Sinner and Alcaraz. It was risky at the time, but I knew that Novak would not play if he wasn't feeling ready. Draw helped a lot too.

To me it looks like Novak needed to find his motivation again and Wimbledon proved to be the right place to get that back. He looks hungry again.

I don't like the fact that Alcaraz is feeling so confident right now. Even without playing his best tennis he is constantly finding a way to win. Mentally he looks in a much better place than last year and his game has improved.

What I do like is that Novak beat him last 2 times they played in official matches. Novak had more pressure last year too, hunting the calendar slam, 8th Wimbledon, trying to make a gap on most slams won, no. 1 ranking. This year all that stuff is almost entirely irrelevant. He is just going out there to beat 21 year old kid at his age of 37 and there is no shame if he loses this battle. I just hope it won't be the case tomorrow.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Novak knows everything on Centre court..he was an absolute master expert today vs Musetti

It's like he turned back the clock. After Musetti played close matches against him at the 2021 and 2024 French Opens, I was expecting him to take the next step and beat Novak, like Jannik did at the Australian Open.

 

[kskate2]

It's like he turned back the clock. After Musetti played close matches against him at the 2021 and 2024 French Opens, I was expecting him to take the next step and beat Novak, like Jannik did at the Australian Open.

The big difference is Lorenzo is not Jannik. MM says it a lot, the headcase w/ a beautiful game.

 

[Moxie]

I think with those two we see a clear contrast of mentality and motivation. Carlos has that quality of "magic" to him - a great player coming fully into his power; the question now, is how great. He clearly loves playing, wants to win, and is on the "up and up." Novak, on the other hand, seems a bit (mentally/spiritually) fatigued, or at least a quality of "Here we go again." He's close to the end, and while he's playing well overall, he doesn't have that magic spark - except in moments. But even then, it feels a bit like a "Novakbot."

To put that another way, I agree with Margaret in that "the higher ceiling" comes from wanting it so bad and digging so deep. I'm sure Novak wants #25 - if nothing else, because it is a nice round number (one-quarter of a hundred!). But does he really want it, like we know Carlos does?

I suppose the counter argument is that the reverse could be true: Novak knows he doesn't have many chances left--he's no longer in the "one or more" Slam wins category, but "0 plus" category. Plus there's the factor of #8, tying Roger's record. So maybe he really wants this one, in a similar way that poor Roger really wanted 2019. Carlos will have tons more chances. I'm sure he really wants this, but he'll also be able to shrug it off, while for Novak the doubt will be in his mind: "That might have been my last Wimbledon final."

At the risk of bringing up a sore subject, and/or having you say "OMG, Moxie, you managed to get Nadal in this conversation," I always thought that the hair's breadth difference between them that won Nadal the 2008 Wimbledon final over Roger was that Rafa wanted it a little bit more. I do not question that Federer wanted it. But Nadal had seen his ultimate goal slip through his fingers the year before, and he wasn't going to miss his chance again. I believe he thought at the time that he might not get another one.

Circumstances are a bit different, in that Alcaraz already has won Wimbledon, but I don't see that satisfying his ambition. And his game is on the "up and up," as you say. Aside from the stress of defending his title, which is a thing, he has the freshness of youth, in terms of "mentality and motivation." Something that Novak has been lacking all year.

On the other hand, Novak has reasons to be motivated. He likes to chase all the records, so I'm sure he'd like to at least tie Roger with 8. But, since you did mention Roger's loss in 2019, when he held championship points, you have to think the same is possible here...wanting it so much with the window closing can be a detriment.

Hard to ever count Novak out, so we'll see how it goes tomorrow. If Carlos plays his best game, he wins, with Novak at his present level. If he falters, and Novak is feeling strong and brutal, Novak can win it. If both bring their A-games, it could be anyone's match.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Princess Kate who is the patron of the All England Club will be presenting the trophies at the mens final
Princess Kate has been undergoing chemo therapy for preventative cancer, and has just return to do a few royal duties, she was not present at the Ladies Singles Final.

 

[Moxie]

In case you're interested in the ESPN take:

https://www.espn.com/tennis/story/_...ledon-men-title-carlos-alcaraz-novak-djokovic

 

[El Dude]

At the risk of bringing up a sore subject, and/or having you say "OMG, Moxie, you managed to get Nadal in this conversation," I always thought that the hair's breadth difference between them that won Nadal the 2008 Wimbledon final over Roger was that Rafa wanted it a little bit more. I do not question that Federer wanted it. But Nadal had seen his ultimate goal slip through his fingers the year before, and he wasn't going to miss his chance again. I believe he thought at the time that he might not get another one.

Actually, it is a solid comparison, in terms of different levels of desire.

Circumstances are a bit different, in that Alcaraz already has won Wimbledon, but I don't see that satisfying his ambition. And his game is on the "up and up," as you say. Aside from the stress of defending his title, which is a thing, he has the freshness of youth, in terms of "mentality and motivation." Something that Novak has been lacking all year.

On the other hand, Novak has reasons to be motivated. He likes to chase all the records, so I'm sure he'd like to at least tie Roger with 8. But, since you did mention Roger's loss in 2019, when he held championship points, you have to think the same is possible here...wanting it so much with the window closing can be a detriment.

Hard to ever count Novak out, so we'll see how it goes tomorrow. If Carlos plays his best game, he wins, with Novak at his present level. If he falters, and Novak is feeling strong and brutal, Novak can win it. If both bring their A-games, it could be anyone's match.

Yeah, agreed. The problem for Novak, and why I give Alcaraz the edge, is we haven't really seen his A-game since last year. I mean, there were flashes of his signature brilliance in that match against Musetti. Lorenzo would play his heart out, and Novak would come up with sequences that were just unreal, in an almost blase manner. Actually, there was one rally that I thought, "Oh yeah, the Big Three - I forgot how great they could be."

But Alcaraz isn't Musetti, and is also capable of the kind of brilliance that we almost always only see from true greats. And Moxie, while I've been deliberately a bit reluctant to proclaim Alcaraz as a future inner circle great, his surge these last couple months is making me tip over...for a bit there it was "Hewitt to Becker," then when he won his second, it was "Wilander+." Now I'm thinking a player on the level of Lendl/Sampras is quite possible, and maybe even more. He's still improving, and still has room to grow. Scary to think what sort of player he might be in 2-3 years (even though there's still the chance that he's peaking now...I suspect not)

On a side note, and this is where you can accuse me of Rogerian allegiance, I never felt that Novak was quite Roger's equal at Wimbledon. Sure, his record is almost as good and he beat Roger in their last three finals, but they were all very hard fought matches and were in 2014-15 and '19, when Roger wasn't quite as good as he'd been and Novak was in his absolute prime. The age gap was substantial, whether you're talking 27-28 vs 33-34 or almost 38 vs 32 (to put that another way, Roger was older in their 2014 final than Novak was in their 2019 final).

The age gap between the two was more significant than Roger and Rafa, because Roger was a bit of a late bloomer and Rafa was almost fully formed from 2005 on, or--and even though I don't think Rafa fully blossomed until 2008--was at least closer to his best level than Novak was until 2011 (in other words, Rafa 2005-07 > Novak 2007-10). The one time Roger beat Novak at Wimbledon was in 2012, when Roger was almost 31 but still close to prime level, especially on grass, and Novak was 25 and very much in prime form. I think if their ages were lined up a bit more closely, Roger's edge on grass would have been evident and the Wimbledon H2H of 1-3 would have been reversed.

That's what made 2019 so heart-breaking: Roger, even at 38, could go toe-to-toe with a six-year-younger Novak. But it also highlighted a way in which Novak and Rafa were greater players than Roger: in finals against true peers. Roger wasn't quite as good at rising to the challenge. Roger was so dominant in those early years (2004-07), and probably more dominant over the field of his peers than any player in Open Era history, that when finally faced players of equal talent, he didn't play them with equal performance. Thus my rating Novak and especially Rafa as greater competitors and clutch performers. But that's going back over old territory.

 

[Moxie]

Actually, it is a solid comparison, in terms of different levels of desire.

I appreciate that.

Yeah, agreed. The problem for Novak, and why I give Alcaraz the edge, is we haven't really seen his A-game since last year. I mean, there were flashes of his signature brilliance in that match against Musetti. Lorenzo would play his heart out, and Novak would come up with sequences that were just unreal, in an almost blase manner. Actually, there was one rally that I thought, "Oh yeah, the Big Three - I forgot how great they could be."

But Alcaraz isn't Musetti, and is also capable of the kind of brilliance that we almost always only see from true greats. And Moxie, while I've been deliberately a bit reluctant to proclaim Alcaraz as a future inner circle great, his surge these last couple months is making me tip over...for a bit there it was "Hewitt to Becker," then when he won his second, it was "Wilander+." Now I'm thinking a player on the level of Lendl/Sampras is quite possible, and maybe even more. He's still improving, and still has room to grow. Scary to think what sort of player he might be in 2-3 years (even though there's still the chance that he's peaking now...I suspect not)

I do kind of laugh when you get into your "Wilander+" or "Lendl/Sampras" mode. I do understand why you do it, but sometimes it's a bit much. Alcaraz is Alcaraz. And not everything has to be measured against history. He's 21. I'd love to just measure himself against himself for awhile. But he does seem to be a super-nova.

On a side note, and this is where you can accuse me of Rogerian allegiance, I never felt that Novak was quite Roger's equal at Wimbledon. Sure, his record is almost as good and he beat Roger in their last three finals, but they were all very hard fought matches and were in 2014-15 and '19, when Roger wasn't quite as good as he'd been and Novak was in his absolute prime. The age gap was substantial, whether you're talking 27-28 vs 33-34 or almost 38 vs 32 (to put that another way, Roger was older in their 2014 final than Novak was in their 2019 final).

I would say without prejudice that it seems hard to compare Roger on grass to Novak. Roger was a very classic grass man. Novak has an all-court game that translates, but was never classic grass. And the age gap matters in the W/L column, imo.

The age gap between the two was more significant than Roger and Rafa, because Roger was a bit of a late bloomer and Rafa was almost fully formed from 2005 on, or--and even though I don't think Rafa fully blossomed until 2008--was at least closer to his best level than Novak was until 2011 (in other words, Rafa 2005-07 > Novak 2007-10). The one time Roger beat Novak at Wimbledon was in 2012, when Roger was almost 31 but still close to prime level, especially on grass, and Novak was 25 and very much in prime form. I think if their ages were lined up a bit more closely, Roger's edge on grass would have been evident and the Wimbledon H2H of 1-3 would have been reversed.

That's what made 2019 so heart-breaking: Roger, even at 38, could go toe-to-toe with a six-year-younger Novak. But it also highlighted a way in which Novak and Rafa were greater players than Roger: in finals against true peers. Roger wasn't quite as good at rising to the challenge. Roger was so dominant in those early years (2004-07), and probably more dominant over the field of his peers than any player in Open Era history, that when finally faced players of equal talent, he didn't play them with equal performance. Thus my rating Novak and especially Rafa as greater competitors and clutch performers. But that's going back over old territory.

It may have mattered that Roger came first and led the way. He said he never wanted a rival when he got Rafa, but then appreciated him. But Rafa and Novak had a target. And Novak, as I have said, starting later, was always going to be the last man standing, if healthy.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

If Tiafoe plays the way he did against Alcaraz, he will contend for titles in the NA swing and make a deep run at the US Open. If he plays the way he did against Arnaldi, he will be making some early exits.

 

[Front242]

For what it's worth, Tignor picked Djokovic and Zach Cohen who does the betting picks on tennis.com has Alcaraz to win.