Will Nadal pass Federer?

GameSetAndMath

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Bump.

I would like to have a diff of 5 by the end of this year, considering the age difference is 5 years. That would make it safe.
 

GameSetAndMath

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BUMP.

Now the diff is four. I think a diff of 5 would be considered safe, considering their age difference and considering Rafa's RG record.
I hope the diff becomes 5 by the end of this year.
 

Federberg

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I don't under-estimate Rafa. When you hear Uncle Toni talk, you get the sense that he at least wants Rafa to target the slam record. I don't get the sense that Rafa is as obsessed as him though. For his sake he'd better win RG this year
 

mrzz

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If Nadal does not wins RG this year than this is almost done.
 
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Haelfix

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We said that about Roger getting number 17 I think. Ask yourselves this. Who is going to stop Rafa from winning 3 more RG's assuming Murray/Djokovic/Wawrinka don't make it back to elite level. Does anyone want to pick one of the young guys against him? Has anyone showed themselves remotely capable of even being slightly competitive. Thiem/Goffin etc?

Then all it takes is another hardcourt slam. Maybe at the USO if conditions are slow, and with a little luck of the draw like last year...
 
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El Dude

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Roger has been blessed with extraordinary health. I'm not quite ready to assume that Rafa will be equally blessed, which he would need to be to win 3+ more French Opens.

That said, I will not write Rafa off to win 4+ more, just as I won't write Roger off to win more.
 

DarthFed

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We said that about Roger getting number 17 I think. Ask yourselves this. Who is going to stop Rafa from winning 3 more RG's assuming Murray/Djokovic/Wawrinka don't make it back to elite level. Does anyone want to pick one of the young guys against him? Has anyone showed themselves remotely capable of even being slightly competitive. Thiem/Goffin etc?

Then all it takes is another hardcourt slam. Maybe at the USO if conditions are slow, and with a little luck of the draw like last year...

Exactly how I see it too. Everyone likes to mention Thiem on clay for some reason but Rafa at age 35 is still probably a heavy favorite at RG over 25-26 year old Dom. For now there is no serious threat unless Novak reverts back to peak form which seems very unlikely. I think Rafa has a pretty good chance at 13-14 RG's. The question becomes though that even if he gets to 20 like that can he really be considered on par with Fed who has dominated 3 slams instead of 1? And as long as Roger is healthy and motivated he has a good shot at a few more which would really put it out of reach.
 

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He can pass Roger. People have been talking for years about how his physical style will shorten his career, but it is clear that he has not been affected to the point that he cannot compete for grand slams. I agree that he could easily win another 3 to 5 RG titles. I am happy that Roger still likes to play tennis and he has the game to continue winning for a few more years to maintain the gap,
 

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I am one who mentions Thiem in this conversation (as a factor on clay), because up to 2017 he was still a promise, but on the 2017 clay season he was up there fighting Nadal on a match to match basis, something that only Djokovic has done before. Their clay H2H is 4-2 (who else besides Djokovic has something that close)? They played 4 times on clay on 2017, Thiem had a good, solid win in Rome, made a hell of a final at Madrid, decided on details. At RG, yes, he fell apart (after a competitive first set), but yet there was only one guy able to challenge Nadal on clay in 2017 and it was Thiem. Considering that he is still has room to develop, he is a real threat. Obviously Nadal is still the favorite, but ask the Spaniard himself if he takes him lightly and he will probably laugh back in disbelief.

I am not saying that Nadal can not win 4 more majors, I am saying that the task of winning just 1 is extremely difficult and is getting worst by the day. We are probably extremely biased because Fedal got the last 5, but it is extremely unlikely that they will get the next f5. Two out five would be quite good, IMO.

If you check back, the most consistent thing that happens in tennis is a change in tide, year in, year out. With Nadal at 31 (and Federer 36), there is little reason to believe this won't happen this time. The best shot Nadal has is to remain the close to the top for more 4 or 5 years, but given how physical his game is (not saying that is only that, but it is obviously an important part), that is a hell of a task.
 
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GameSetAndMath

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Rafa will probably be playing for six more years (with on and off injury break of course). Of the six years, he will probably win at least 2 RG and at least one other slam. Another one also is possible somewhere. That is why, I don't think a diff of 4 is safe. A diff of 5, I would say is very safe. Also, that diff of 5 should be at the end of a calendar year.

Right now the diff is 4, but once Rafa wins RG, the diff will be back to 3. So, the figure of 4 diff is misleading. Especially this year considering that Novak and Stan are still recovering from their injuries, Rafa is almost sure to capture RG again barring injuries to himself.
 

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As y'all know, I love to speculate and see nothing wrong with it, even am surprised at how some almost seem offended by speculating. That said, with Fedal we're in uncharted territory and all speculation has to be taken with a grain of salt. Historical precedents just don't seem to apply.

That said, let's look at some numbers. Roger is 36, and Rafa turns 32 the day before the French Open men's final, so will be 32 or older for every further Slam title. How many Slams have been won by 32+ year olds in the Open Era?

Only nine. Four by Ken Rosewall, three by Roger, and one by each of Andre Agassi and Andre Gimeno.

Now 2018 is a different era. Players seem to be both peaking later, and maintaining prime form later. That said, it is hard to say to what degree this is impacted by the weakness of Lost Gen. I think it is a combination: players maintaining prime form deeper into their 30s and a weaker younger generation that is exagerrating the former.

Roger has now won three Slams after age 32, two at age 35 and one at age 36. There's no reason to think that Rafa shouldn't be able to win at least one more, possibly more. But my point is, we really have to take it Slam by Slam. Look what happened to Novak; sometimes the train just comes off the rails and can't get back on (this is not to say that Novak won't recover, mind you, just that nothing is certain).

But the other thing to consider is that while Lost Gen hasn't been much of a challenge, Next Gen is looking better and better each year. Don't forget that Denis Shapovalov beat Rafa last year. Kyrgios and Zverev are both dangerous and have proven they can beat the elite. These guys, not to mention other up-and-comers like Rublev, will only get better over the next few years. One thing we can say with some degree of certainty is that Fedal will not get better. At best they can maintain their current forms for a few more years, and even then they will likely see some skill erosion, or at least more frequent injury concerns.

So while Fedal still reign supreme, the gap will continue to narrow, even if only slightly. And of course there's always the chance that Stan, Novak, and Andy come back. I mean, stranger things have happened.

All I'm willing to say is that, right now, Rafa is the favorite at the 2018 RG, and Roger - if he maintains health and form - is the favorite at Wimbledon. Beyond that, and including the USO, who knows.
 
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MartyB

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As y'all know, I love to speculate and see nothing wrong with it, even am surprised at how some almost seem offended by speculating. That said, with Fedal we're in uncharted territory and all speculation has to be taken with a grain of salt. Historical precedents just don't seem to apply.

That said, let's look at some numbers. Roger is 36, and Rafa turns 32 the day before the French Open men's final, so will be 32 or older for every further Slam title. How many Slams have been won by 32+ year olds in the Open Era?

Only nine. Four by Ken Rosewall, three by Roger, and one by each of Andre Agassi and Andre Gimeno.

Now 2018 is a different era. Players seem to be both peaking later, and maintaining prime form later. That said, it is hard to say to what degree this is impacted by the weakness of Lost Gen. I think it is a combination: players maintaining prime form deeper into their 30s and a weaker younger generation that is exagerrating the former.

Roger has now won three Slams after age 32, two at age 35 and one at age 36. There's no reason to think that Rafa shouldn't be able to win at least one more, possibly more. But my point is, we really have to take it Slam by Slam. Look what happened to Novak; sometimes the train just comes off the rails and can't get back on (this is not to say that Novak won't recover, mind you, just that nothing is certain).

But the other thing to consider is that while Lost Gen hasn't been much of a challenge, Next Gen is looking better and better each year. Don't forget that Denis Shapovalov beat Rafa last year. Kyrgios and Zverev are both dangerous and have proven they can beat the elite. These guys, not to mention other up-and-comers like Rublev, will only get better over the next few years. One thing we can say with some degree of certainty is that Fedal will not get better. At best they can maintain their current forms for a few more years, and even then they will likely see some skill erosion, or at least more frequent injury concerns.

So while Fedal still reign supreme, the gap will continue to narrow, even if only slightly. And of course there's always the chance that Stan, Novak, and Andy come back. I mean, stranger things have ha
 

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What I meant to post was barring health related issues Nada/Fed are the prohibitive favorites for the French & Wimbledon championships. But each time Fed wins another GS title it becomes much more difficult for Nadal to catch him. It's a war of attrition now. I could be proven wrong but the deciding moment in this debate of who will end up with more GS titles occurred at the AO last year. That match was the turning point.
 

GameSetAndMath

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What I meant to post was barring health related issues Nada/Fed are the prohibitive favorites for the French & Wimbledon championships. But each time Fed wins another GS title it becomes much more difficult for Nadal to catch him. It's a war of attrition now. I could be proven wrong but the deciding moment in this debate of who will end up with more GS titles occurred at the AO last year. That match was the turning point.

If Fed beats Rafa at RG (just dreaming) this year, that will certainly put an end to this thread.

On a serious note, any time they face each other in the finals of a GS, that is extremely important match as even though the diff changes by only one, the difference between differences of the two outcomes is two.
 

Fiero425

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If Fed beats Rafa at RG (just dreaming) this year, that will certainly put an end to this thread.

On a serious note, any time they face each other in the finals of a GS, that is extremely important match as even though the diff changes by only one, the difference between differences of the two outcomes is two.

Well we know this is fantasy land! If Fed has a brain in his head, he'll skip Paris again and prepare for the grass of Wimbledon! At his age, why would he want to even chance exhaustion and injury playing on clay? :whistle: :nono: :facepalm: :cuckoo: :eek: :rolleyes:
 
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Moxie

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What I meant to post was barring health related issues Nada/Fed are the prohibitive favorites for the French & Wimbledon championships. But each time Fed wins another GS title it becomes much more difficult for Nadal to catch him. It's a war of attrition now. I could be proven wrong but the deciding moment in this debate of who will end up with more GS titles occurred at the AO last year. That match was the turning point.
I completely agree that last year's AO was probably the most significant between them, in terms of the race for Majors. I still resent that they didn't have to play their 5-set semis on the same day. And I'm really disappointed that Rafa got hurt and couldn't meet Roger in the final this year, as he looked more vulnerable than last year. So, obviously, it will be a lot about the health of each, but Rafa has the historically more susceptible body to breakdown. With decent health, his form stays high, he should be in the running for Majors for the next 4 years. And, even with @mrzz's compelling argument for Thiem, Rafa is miles ahead of everyone on clay, when healthy and confident.
 

Moxie

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Well we know this is fantasy land! If Fed has a brain in his head, he'll skip Paris again and prepare for the grass of Wimbledon! At his age, why would he want to even chance exhaustion and injury playing on clay? :whistle: :nono: :facepalm: :cuckoo: :eek: :rolleyes:
A lot of people are figuring out Roger's chances of getting back to #1, and probably thinking ahead to YE#1, which Roger missed mainly by not playing clay, or possibly. I get your point. The actual person, Roger, and his team, will be calculating what's best as they go along. If he hasn't over-played before the clay season, and his knee feels good, he may give it a go. He can always decide to bail on clay, if it looks like he won't win RG and that he might be jeopardizing Wimbledon.
 

MartyB

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I completely agree that last year's AO was probably the most significant between them, in terms of the race for Majors. I still resent that they didn't have to play their 5-set semis on the same day. And I'm really disappointed that Rafa got hurt and couldn't meet Roger in the final this year, as he looked more vulnerable than last year. So, obviously, it will be a lot about the health of each, but Rafa has the historically more susceptible body to breakdown. With decent health, his form stays high, he should be in the running for Majors for the next 4 years. And, even with @mrzz's compelling argument for Thiem, Rafa is miles ahead of everyone on clay, when healthy and confident.
Not sure how many times they will actually meet this year especially at the GS's. Not the French nor Wimbledon. US Open maybe? And as the years progress even less of a possibility. And if we believe that both champions repeat at the French and Wimbledon respectively nothing has been altered in this aspect of their careers.