Will Federer ever compete at world tour finals ever again?

[mightyjeditribble]

Strictly speaking, as far as the 2017 WTF itself goes, it doesn't matter what Roger defends from last year. Only the Race to London points are important for entry into the WTF, so it will only depend on his results this year.

Of course, as mentioned, his seeding throughout the year will be based on the rolling 52 week ranking as usual. However, one cannot take for granted that a higher seeding will affect him adversely. Case in point: Juan Martin del Potro in 2016. I believe a good case could be made that once he sufficiently established his form, his high ranking was worse for the top adversaries, than for him. I see the same idea, if not more so, applying to Federer's situation.

Hi masterclass,

in some sense I agree - and said as much in a previous post - that as long as Fed is healthy and recovers somewhere near his previous level, he should easily return to top 8 by the end of the year.

But I do think his chances would be helped by a top 8 seeding at Wimbledon, which is surely still his best shot at a deep run in a GS. (Of course, I'm secretly hoping for a title run, but it's a) too early to seriously contemplate that, and b) a bit off-topic in this thread.)

It may well be that the lower (or is it higher? :s ) seeding will hurt the potential top opponents more than him, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's better for his ranking - at this stage, it is noticable and natural that long, demanding matches are taking more out of him than they used to. So on balance I would say it is better to avoid them early on if he can.

Also, it's fun to run the numbers and speculate.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Feliciano Lopez only needs to reach R3 to stay ahead of Fed in this scenario. Beating Fognini and Haas or Paire is well within his abilities, although a loss would also not be entirely shocking.

Deliciano lost to Fognini in straight sets. Baghdatis is highly unlikely to beat Nadal. So Fed is now likely to remain in top 32 for now as long as he wins his next match, even if he loses to Berdych.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

Just to complete the Aussie scenario for Federer:

Federer's 52 week 2017 AO live/projected points with 2016 AO SF dropped:

R128     R64 	R32	  R16	QF	  SF	   F	   W
1270	1305	1350   1440	1620	1980	2460	3260

By virtue of his R128 win over Melzer, he currently has 1305 points in the rolling 52 week rankings.
As previously mentioned, that puts him at #32, just ahead of Tomic.

On the other hand, his best case scenario, I believe him winning the AO title would probably get him in the top 10, unless Goffin reaches the semis, or RBA reaches the final.

I think if Fed wins the AO title, his ranking becomes pretty irrelevant.

Actually, I think that's true even if he makes the semis, particularly if that means beating Murray.

 

[mightyjeditribble]

I think (assuming as always that he stays healthy) we can close this thread given Fed's AO performance, regardless of what happens in the rest of the tournament. :laydownlaughing

I'd expect Fed to have a top 8 seeding for Wimbledon, and be back well within the top 8 following the US Open. Of course, these may well happen a lot sooner, particularly if he beats Stan and/or wins the final ...

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

I think (assuming as always that he stays healthy) we can close this thread given Fed's AO performance, regardless of what happens in the rest of the tournament. :laydownlaughing

I'd expect Fed to have a top 8 seeding for Wimbledon, and be back well within the top 8 following the US Open. Of course, these may well happen a lot sooner, particularly if he beats Stan and/or wins the final ...

yeah, hope Roger pulls it off!

 

[Front242]

Roger will not only play more WTFs, he'll win more.

 

[secrettennisjunkie]

Since Roger reached the SF at AO he has defended all his points from last year and he has no points to defend until Monte Carlo so seeding is now a non-issue. Like others have been saying, he'll have to be hurt to miss the WTF.

 

[isabelle]

Roger will not only play more WTFs, he'll win more.

are you kidding ? i bet you are !!

 

[masterclass]

Federer leads the *Live* Race To London at the moment with 1200 pts.

However, the bottom half semifinal winner, Dimitrov or Nadal, will pass him tomorrow.

Of course, the AO title winner is assured of leading the early race.

Respectfully,
masterclass

 

[Front242]

Roger will not only play more WTFs, he'll win more.

are you kidding ? i bet you are !!

100% not kidding. Did you see the beat down he gave Murray there in 2014? Murray won 1 (!) game. Djokovic, unless he picks things up greatly, is not gonna trouble him there. He was well off the pace last year at the WTF in pretty much all his matches. Which leaves basically Nishikori (good chance he'll be injured by December) and Raonic. Same thing for him. Good chance he'll be injured by then and, even if not, Roger would beat him too. Finally, Nadal has never been much of a threat at the WTF and only beat Roger there in 2013 when he had a bad back. Never beat him when healthy. I know you hate Roger, but be prepared for disappointment when he wins the WTF again.

 

[isabelle]

Roger will not only play more WTFs, he'll win more.

are you kidding ? i bet you are !!

100% not kidding. Did you see the beat down he gave Murray there in 2014? Murray won 1 (!) game. Djokovic, unless he picks things up greatly, is not gonna trouble him there. He was well off the pace last year at the WTF in pretty much all his matches. Which leaves basically Nishikori (good chance he'll be injured by December) and Raonic. Same thing for him. Good chance he'll be injured by then and, even if not, Roger would beat him too. Finally, Nadal has never been much of a threat at the WTF and only beat Roger there in 2013 when he had a bad back. Never beat him when healthy. I know you hate Roger, but be prepared for disappointment when he wins the WTF again.

hate is too strong, I dislike him is well enought...about Masters, he hasn't won it for ages, why would he win at the age of 36 after a knee surgery ? he can qualify but win ??? oh no, I don't think so but it's only the beginning of season, the long road has just begun

 

[delPoFearhand]

Roger loves indoor hard courts- fast court, low bounce, no wind or sun, perfect conditions to hit offensive shots.

 

[Front242]

are you kidding ? i bet you are !!

100% not kidding. Did you see the beat down he gave Murray there in 2014? Murray won 1 (!) game. Djokovic, unless he picks things up greatly, is not gonna trouble him there. He was well off the pace last year at the WTF in pretty much all his matches. Which leaves basically Nishikori (good chance he'll be injured by December) and Raonic. Same thing for him. Good chance he'll be injured by then and, even if not, Roger would beat him too. Finally, Nadal has never been much of a threat at the WTF and only beat Roger there in 2013 when he had a bad back. Never beat him when healthy. I know you hate Roger, but be prepared for disappointment when he wins the WTF again.

hate is too strong, I dislike him is well enought...about Masters, he hasn't won it for ages, why would he win at the age of 36 after a knee surgery ? he can qualify but win ??? oh no, I don't think so but it's only the beginning of season, the long road has just begun

So far at the AO after hardly any matches in over 6 months he's beaten 3 top 10 opponents in best of 5 and you think he can't win 4 matches in best of 3 to win the WTF?! :s Think again.

 

[Frode789]

Federer has always thrived at WTF. Hard court, fast, indoor, bo3. Yepp.. If he stays up in this form, he can definitely win WTF again.

 

[isabelle]

100% not kidding. Did you see the beat down he gave Murray there in 2014? Murray won 1 (!) game. Djokovic, unless he picks things up greatly, is not gonna trouble him there. He was well off the pace last year at the WTF in pretty much all his matches. Which leaves basically Nishikori (good chance he'll be injured by December) and Raonic. Same thing for him. Good chance he'll be injured by then and, even if not, Roger would beat him too. Finally, Nadal has never been much of a threat at the WTF and only beat Roger there in 2013 when he had a bad back. Never beat him when healthy. I know you hate Roger, but be prepared for disappointment when he wins the WTF again.

hate is too strong, I dislike him is well enought...about Masters, he hasn't won it for ages, why would he win at the age of 36 after a knee surgery ? he can qualify but win ??? oh no, I don't think so but it's only the beginning of season, the long road has just begun

So far at the AO after hardly any matches in over 6 months he's beaten 3 top 10 opponents in best of 5 and you think he can't win 4 matches in best of 3 to win the WTF?! :s Think again.

he's picked up an adductor injury and it's his first tourney...the beginning if the season...don't you think his body could be unable to stand the pace all year long ? Henri Leconte talked on a french radio this morning, he talked about injuries and age, the fact it's more and more difficult to play several tough matches in a row...Masters"ll be played in nov, just wait to see in which shape Mr Vavrinec (and not only him) will be
all guys are tired (and often injured) after USO, no need to be 36 !!

 

[El Dude]

Definitely not. This guy is toast.

 

[Front242]

Poor isabelle lol

 

[delPoFearhand]

So, he's basically qualified already for the WTF due to the backdoor GS winner rule. Playing Bo3 matches every other day shouldn't be a problem for a guy who played 3 5-setters to get the AO title.

 

[Front242]

Don't think it'll come down to him needing that rule to qualify. I mean *cough* but look who's leading the ATP live race.

http://live-tennis.eu/en/atp-race

 

[Front242]

Going out on a limb here to say I think Roger has a good shot at ending the year in the top 2 due to lack of points to defend and more importantly how both he and the competition are playing. A lot can change over the year of course but I'm sticking with my prediction.