Will Federer ever compete at world tour finals ever again?

[the AntiPusher]

Some fans on tennis.com said they saw Roger practicing last week and he was looking incredible and in the poster's own words, "moving like he was 25". Carol will be delighted seeing as she thinks RoboRoger is faster than ever Time will tell I guess as to how good he'll be once he returns. Hoping to see Tommy Haas back next year too.

I hope Haas is able to come back but at this age, it's very unlikely

 

[Front242]

I didn't get to see him at the tie break tens event but he played there if anyone caught it. Don't think age is much of an issue really as he's missed so much time due to injuries/surgeries (nine surgeries now) that his age is largely irrelevant. Main problem is the latest surgery was a foot ligament fix as his foot was causing him pain in everyday life. Not an easy operation to return from at all. From presumably a lot of careful rehab and minimal weight bearing to full blown running, bending/stooping and everything else tennis entails. Wouldn't be easy at any age really.

 

[the AntiPusher]

I didn't get to see him at the tie break tens event but he played there if anyone caught it. Don't think age is much of an issue really as he's missed so much time due to injuries/surgeries (nine surgeries now) that his age is largely irrelevant. Main problem is the latest surgery was a foot ligament fix as his foot was causing him pain in everyday life. Not an easy operation to return from at all. From presumably a lot of careful rehab and minimal weight bearing to full blown running, bending/stooping and everything else tennis entails. Wouldn't be easy at any age really.

Remember Front a wise man once said "older injured athletes don't get better, they just die "..Charles Barkley

 

[El Dude]

Tommy Haas? I thought he hung up the racket.

Anyhow, that's good to hear, Front. Maybe the time off gave him some much needed old man's rest. Maybe he needs to start thinking playing more like 14-15 tournaments a year rather than his usual 17. I could see a lighter early season, especially clay - maybe dropping one of the three clay Masters and Istanbul, and then a build-up after Roland Garros. I'd also recommend he not bother with Davis Cup - let Stan carry the load.

 

[Carol]

First I will have to see when, how many tournaments and how RoboRoger is going to play and later I will say how long he is going to last ....

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Its good to hear that Roger is moving well. He will have to make good use of the Rotterdam-Madrid(or Rome?) stretch to make some good ground for Wimbledon seedings which are very vital for onward and final rankings. But except indian Wells the other places in that stretch have mostly not brought good things for him in past. We can only hope.

Sent from my Titanium Octane using Tapatalk

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Its good to hear that Roger is moving well. He will have to make good use of the Rotterdam-Madrid(or Rome?) stretch to make some good ground for Wimbledon seedings which are very vital for onward and final rankings. But except indian Wells the other places in that stretch have mostly not brought good things for him in past. We can only hope.

Sent from my Titanium Octane using Tapatalk

Actually, Roger has typically done well at Madrid and Rotterdam. He does not play in Rotterdam frequently, but when he does he usually performs well. Also, he does well at IW typically. I expect him to be in top 8 before RG rolls around.

 

[Front242]

Tommy Haas? I thought he hung up the racket.

Anyhow, that's good to hear, Front. Maybe the time off gave him some much needed old man's rest. Maybe he needs to start thinking playing more like 14-15 tournaments a year rather than his usual 17. I could see a lighter early season, especially clay - maybe dropping one of the three clay Masters and Istanbul, and then a build-up after Roland Garros. I'd also recommend he not bother with Davis Cup - let Stan carry the load.

Haas is the new Indian Wells tournament director so it's possible he'll wait till grass season to play to allow for more recovery time. Could see him playing Halle hopefully. Can't see him returning for clay season. Would be nuts really unless he played just Munich.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Its good to hear that Roger is moving well. He will have to make good use of the Rotterdam-Madrid(or Rome?) stretch to make some good ground for Wimbledon seedings which are very vital for onward and final rankings. But except indian Wells the other places in that stretch have mostly not brought good things for him in past. We can only hope.

Sent from my Titanium Octane using Tapatalk

Actually, Roger has typically done well at Madrid and Rotterdam. He does not play in Rotterdam frequently, but when he does he usually performs well. Also, he does well at IW typically. I expect him to be in top 8 before RG rolls around.

Yes, Rogers done well historically at Madrid. But, we are talking about 2017 Roger on clay. His clay court game has deteriorated, hasn't it? 2014 was his last reasonably good clay season. I am not sure how good he is going to do there. Let's see.

Sent from my Titanium Octane using Tapatalk

 

[mightyjeditribble]

A year ago, it was still the case that only Novak routinely beat Roger.

Now, of course he's getting older, but age alone shouldn't make him deteriorate so fast. *ASSUMING* that he is and stays fully healthy (not a given), I would think that he would be more likely than not to make it back into the top 8.

Seeding makes some difference, but only up to a point. Fed would be looking to routinely make at least quarterfinals in his tournaments. It is really only Novak, Andy and (if healthy) Rafa that he probably would like to avoid. The chance of meeting them before the quarters is the same whether he is ranked 9-16 or 16+, so it may not matter so much. (I may regret saying this if he keeps drawing Novak at the earliest opportunity ...)

AO draw could matter a lot in terms of how quickly he starts moving up the ranking, but it doesn't seem realistic to expect him to defend his SF points. Brisbane F + AO SF makes 870 points. If he dropped all of them, he'd be on 2130 - 870 = 1260 points, which on current rankings would drop him out of the top 32. Hopefully he won't drop quite that much, but even with a AO QF he'd be only on 1620, probably mid-20s in the rankings.

Then he has nothing to defend until the clay-court season, in which he's only got 270 points.

He could choose to play Dubai, and will have chances to get some serious points at IW/Miami (though perhaps it is doubtful that he'd play both). If he's going to have a chance to make it back to the top 8, then he should be able to at least make a few Masters semis, and getting back up into the top 16 by the French Open.

If he does achieve that, then he'll be in a good position until the rest of the year - assuming he manages to defend at least his Wimbledon SF. But here the SW19 seeding formula ought to help him, with last year's grass-court results and the previous year's final he should have a chance to be seeded top 8, and he'll still be a force to be reckoned with there.

So I don't see a problem with having him back in London at least one more year, *assuming* that he is and stays healthy. (Here's hoping ...)

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Its good to hear that Roger is moving well. He will have to make good use of the Rotterdam-Madrid(or Rome?) stretch to make some good ground for Wimbledon seedings which are very vital for onward and final rankings. But except indian Wells the other places in that stretch have mostly not brought good things for him in past. We can only hope.

Sent from my Titanium Octane using Tapatalk

Actually, Roger has typically done well at Madrid and Rotterdam. He does not play in Rotterdam frequently, but when he does he usually performs well. Also, he does well at IW typically. I expect him to be in top 8 before RG rolls around.

Yes, Rogers done well historically at Madrid. But, we are talking about 2017 Roger on clay. His clay court game has deteriorated, hasn't it? 2014 was his last reasonably good clay season. I am not sure how good he is going to do there. Let's see.

Sent from my Titanium Octane using Tapatalk

Also, I forgot to mention Dubai where he typically does well and could not play last year.

 

[herios]

Some fans on tennis.com said they saw Roger practicing last week and he was looking incredible and in the poster's own words, "moving like he was 25". Carol will be delighted seeing as she thinks RoboRoger is faster than ever Time will tell I guess as to how good he'll be once he returns. Hoping to see Tommy Haas back next year too.

seriously, Haas with his crippled body should retire already. And if he really wants to play, there is the senior tour.

 

[herios]

Outside chance: Berdych, Tsonga, Monfils, Kyrgios, Goffin, Bautista Agut, Zverev, Pouille, Dimitrov, Edmund

You went seriously overboard here with Edmund. In that case you could add 30 more players to the list.

 

[El Dude]

Don't be grumpy, herios. I just listed as many players I could think of that have the talent and/or are in a period of strong improvement. I think it very, very unlikely that Edmund makes it, but...

 

[herios]

Don't be grumpy, herios. I just listed as many players I could think of that have the talent and/or are in a period of strong improvement. I think it very, very unlikely that Edmund makes it, but...

I am not grumpy
Edmund is totally unproven. There is a huge gap between 40-45 range where he is at and the top 10.
It took two full years for Thiem to close that gap:

Ranking for Thiem:

21y 39
22y 20
23y 9 ( he will end probably 8 thanks to Rafa)

Do you see Edmund better than Thiem? I don't.

 

[BratSrbin]

That's funny Dude. You went from 1 year to 3.

Well, it is more a matter of diminishing percentages. If I had to put numbers to it, I'd say Federer's chances of making the top 8 in 2017-19 are roughly: 70/60/40%. Or something like that; that's assuming good health. Of course if he doesn't do it in 2017, it greatly diminishes his chances in 2018 and later.

My percentages are 40, 20 and 0. Or something like that, one or two percents to add or deduct. If it is possible, of course.

 

[kskate2]

A year ago, it was still the case that only Novak routinely beat Roger.

Now, of course he's getting older, but age alone shouldn't make him deteriorate so fast. *ASSUMING* that he is and stays fully healthy (not a given), I would think that he would be more likely than not to make it back into the top 8.

Seeding makes some difference, but only up to a point. Fed would be looking to routinely make at least quarterfinals in his tournaments. It is really only Novak, Andy and (if healthy) Rafa that he probably would like to avoid. The chance of meeting them before the quarters is the same whether he is ranked 9-16 or 16+, so it may not matter so much. (I may regret saying this if he keeps drawing Novak at the earliest opportunity ...)

AO draw could matter a lot in terms of how quickly he starts moving up the ranking, but it doesn't seem realistic to expect him to defend his SF points. Brisbane F + AO SF makes 870 points. If he dropped all of them, he'd be on 2130 - 870 = 1260 points, which on current rankings would drop him out of the top 32. Hopefully he won't drop quite that much, but even with a AO QF he'd be only on 1620, probably mid-20s in the rankings.

Then he has nothing to defend until the clay-court season, in which he's only got 270 points.

He could choose to play Dubai, and will have chances to get some serious points at IW/Miami (though perhaps it is doubtful that he'd play both). If he's going to have a chance to make it back to the top 8, then he should be able to at least make a few Masters semis, and getting back up into the top 16 by the French Open.

If he does achieve that, then he'll be in a good position until the rest of the year - assuming he manages to defend at least his Wimbledon SF. But here the SW19 seeding formula ought to help him, with last year's grass-court results and the previous year's final he should have a chance to be seeded top 8, and he'll still be a force to be reckoned with there.

So I don't see a problem with having him back in London at least one more year, *assuming* that he is and stays healthy. (Here's hoping ...)

Very nice post Jedi. Welcome to the Frontier and happy posting!

 

[El Dude]

Don't be grumpy, herios. I just listed as many players I could think of that have the talent and/or are in a period of strong improvement. I think it very, very unlikely that Edmund makes it, but...

I am not grumpy
Edmund is totally unproven. There is a huge gap between 40-45 range where he is at and the top 10.
It took two full years for Thiem to close that gap:

Ranking for Thiem:

21y 39
22y 20
23y 9 ( he will end probably 8 thanks to Rafa)

Do you see Edmund better than Thiem? I don't.

I get it - and as I said, I don't think Edmund will make the top 8. I just put him on the list as someone who has a "vague" chance...this really is a non-issue.

By the way, from what i can tell Thiem will finish #8, #7 if he defeats Raonic today and Cilic loses again.

 

[herios]

[By the way, from what i can tell Thiem will finish #8, #7 if he defeats Raonic today and Cilic loses again.

# 8 will be enough for him this year. Even that one is a gift from Rafa, Dominic should have been 9 ranked.

 

[Front242]

Some fans on tennis.com said they saw Roger practicing last week and he was looking incredible and in the poster's own words, "moving like he was 25". Carol will be delighted seeing as she thinks RoboRoger is faster than ever Time will tell I guess as to how good he'll be once he returns. Hoping to see Tommy Haas back next year too.

seriously, Haas with his crippled body should retire already. And if he really wants to play, there is the senior tour.

Just 3 years ago Haas with his crippled body made a monkey out of Djokovic at Miami. If he's able to play properly for a few tournaments next year, he might as well play. He said he wants to call it quits on his own terms and not due to injury so hopefully he gets his wish.