First of all, nice post Cali - good to see you around.
Kieran said:
"If Nadal is fit and hungry, he'll win the French."
I think we could also say "If Djokovic is focused and aggressive, he'll win the French." Or more realistically, a combination of Nadal having nagging physical issues and Novak channelling his 2011 competitive self would give Novak the title.
The consensus seems to be that at this point Novak is a better hard and grass player and Nadal better on clay. But the gap is narrowing; has narrowed really, since a few years ago, so that the edge is mainly mental. If Nadal isn't 100% he might lose enough confidence that a relaxed-yet-focused Novak could take it from him.
On the other hand, part of me loves the idea of some surprise winner in 2015 who just plays lights out for the whole tournament. I don't see it....yet.
rafanoy1992 said:
That's why I don't buy that Djokovic will catch Nadal or Nadal will break Federer's record. In sports, there comes a time where physically you just can't compete at a high level every single day. In Tennis, that number is the age 30. When male tennis players turned 30 years old, it is just a different animal compared to when he was 25 years old.
Not to nit-pick...hmm, well to nit-pick a bit...but historically there's a slight drop from "peak" to "plateau" sometime in the 26-27 range with massive decline usually coming in the 31-32 range. But it seems like most great players are able to hold a plateau level until sometime in the 30-32 range, when things often fall apart rapidly.
The point being, that would give Nadal 13 more Slams and Novak and Andy 17 more before turning 32 - plenty of opportunities for Nadal at least to win 3-4 more, although I don't see Novak catching Rafa or Roger but Pete is a possibility. But of course every player is different. One of those three could pull an Andre Agassi on us, or one could lose motivation, or one in particular could simply fall apart. And of course the fact that the next generation who should be in their prime--Nishikori, Raonic, Dimitrov, Tomic, etc--are simply not up to the task to de-throne the current elites. For that we probably have to look at the generation after that--Kyrgios, Coric, Zverev, etc.
So let's look at the year-end ages for various players grouped by generation:
2015
Federer 34
Nadal 29, Djokovic, Murray 28
Nishikori 26, Raonic 25, Dimitrov 24
Kyrgios 20, Coric 19, Zverev 18
(Hard to believe Kei turns 26 at the end of the year!)
2016
Federer 35
Nadal 30, Djokovic/Murray 29
Nishikori 27, Raonic 26, Dimitrov 25
Kyrgios 21, Coric 20, Zverev 19
2017
Federer 36
Nadal 31, Djokovic/Murray 30
Nishikori 27, Raonic 26, Dimitrov 25
Kyrgios 22, Coric 21, Zverev 20
2018
Federer 37
Nadal 32, Djokovic/Murray 31
Nishikori 28, Raonic 27, Dimitrov 26
Kyrgios 23, Coric 22, Zverev 21
If Nishikori's generation was going to take over it would have happened by now, which helps Nadal, Djokovic and Murray potentially in padding their achievements. I have a feeling that it will be a combination of the current top players getting older and the younger generation coming into its own that will see the baton passed sometime in the 2017-19. The next couple years will likely see further dominance by the current elite, with the occasional upset or darkhorse taking a Slam or Masters, and then 2017 (or 2016-18) could be a wild and woolly transition year where every tournament is up for grabs, with 2018 or 2019 being the year that the young guys are firmly in charge.
Should be an interesting next few years!
