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Right now Novak seems invincible. Consider that Roger turns 34 in a few months, Rafa is struggling immensely and looking older than Roger, and Andy is...well, Andy. Consider that the next generation--which includes Kei Nishikori, Grigor Dimitrov, and Milos Raonic--is entering their mid-20s and not showing more than second tier talent level. But also consider that Novak (and Andy) turns 28 this year, and will eventually start to decline - probably in the next two or three years.
So let's fast forward. We can assume, or at least speculate elsewhere, that Novak is King of the Mountain for the next two or three years, with his left-overs going to Andy and a few others (barring a Rafa resurrection, but again - speculate elsewhere). Let's talk about when Novak's reign starts to be challenged. Who do you think it will be? And when?
So there are several related questions to consider:
1. When will Novak start to decline?
2. Who will challenge him for Slams and other big tournaments, and eventually the #1 ranking?
3. Will his reign end because he's old, or because of the greatness of the challenger(s) or a combination of both?
Of course this is all speculation, but let's have at it.
A few thoughts to get us started. As I've said before, in my "generational theory," tennis generations last roughly five years and can best be defined by birth years ending on a 9 and a 4. So for instance, Rafa, Novak and Andy are in the 1984-88 generation; Nishikori, Raonic, and Dimitrov are in the 1989-93 generation - a generation which begins with Nishikori (89) and ends with Jiri Vesely and Dominic Thiem (both 1993). Then we have the youngest generation on tour, the 1994-98 generation, which begins with Lucas Pouille (94), and includes Nick Kyrgios (95), Borna Coric, Hyeon Chung, Thanasi Kokkinakis, and Jared Donaldson (all 96), Alex Zverev (97) and ends with Stefan Kozlov and Francis Tiafoe (both 98).
Now consider that players seem to be peaking a bit later these days. Novak Djokovic was in the top 10 by the time he was around 20, but didn't reach his peak until he was 23-24 in 2011. Andy's trajectory was about a year later. In this regard, Nadal is a bit of an outlier, or a throw-back to an earlier era. We can also look at players like Tomas Berdych, David Ferrer, and Stanislas Wawrinka who are having their best years in their late 20s, even early 30s. So we could look at a player like Grigor Dimitrov, who just turned 24, and hope that he can get a bit better, but probably not much more.
Now let's look at Novak's (and Andy's) ages going forward, with their birthdays in May and thus mid-season - these are represented in parentheses in bold. Then let's look at the ages of various players over those years:
2015 (27-28): Nishikori (25-26), Raonic (24-25), Dimitrov (23-24), Vesely/Thiem (21-22), Kyrgios (19-20), Coric/Chung/Kokkinakis (18-19), Zverev (17-18), Kozlov/Tiafoe (16-17).
2016 (28-29): Nishikori (26-27), Raonic (25-26), Dimitrov (24-25), Vesely/Thiem (22-23), Kyrgios (20-21), Coric/Chung/Kokkinakis (19-20), Zverev (18-19), Kozlov/Tiafoe (17-18).
2017 (29-30): Nishikori (27-28), Raonic (26-27), Dimitrov (25-26), Vesely/Thiem (23-24), Kyrgios (21-22), Coric/Chung/Kokkinakis (20-21), Zverev (19-20), Kozlov/Tiafoe (18-19).
2018 (30-31): Nishikori (28-29), Raonic (27-28), Dimitrov (26-27), Vesely/Thiem (24-25), Kyrgios (22-23), Coric/Chung/Kokkinakis (21-22), Zverev (20-21), Kozlov/Tiafoe (19-20).
2019 (31-32): Nishikori (29-30), Raonic (28-29), Dimitrov (27-28), Vesely/Thiem (25-26), Kyrgios (23-24), Coric/Chung/Kokkinakis (22-23), Zverev (21-22), Kozlov/Tiafoe (20-21).
(If this looks familiar it is because I wrote up something similar a few months back).
Anyhow, it is interesting to line up the ages to get a sense of how old different players will be relative to each other. We don't know how Andy and Novak will age, as they haven't shown any signs of decline yet, and we don' know how many of the above players will develop or what their peak will be like (or when), but this gives us something to look at.
I think things could start getting interesting in 2017, when Novak and Andy turn 30 and you have Nishikori, Raonic, and Dimitrov "ripe on the vine" - past the point of hungry into starvation (assuming they haven't won anything big). A 23-year old Grigor Dimitrov looks anemic versus a 27-year old Novak Djokovic, but how will it look when Grigor is 26 and Novak 30? So all three, and perhaps one or two others of their generation, could be perpetual dark-horse candidates to upset the top guys. But then you have players like Kyrgios, Coric, and others coming more fully into their own.
Just looking at that chart above, my guess is that the Reign of Novak will continue largely unchallenged through 2016, but the cracks will start showing in 2017. By the time we get to 2018, we'll be seeing a regime change with the possible emergence of a new superstar or two that year. Certainly by 2019, Novak is unlikely to remain the top-dog. But I suspect he'll hang around the top 5 for another year or three, not unlike Roger once he hit his 30s.
Of course the bottom line is this: who knows? But what do you think?
So let's fast forward. We can assume, or at least speculate elsewhere, that Novak is King of the Mountain for the next two or three years, with his left-overs going to Andy and a few others (barring a Rafa resurrection, but again - speculate elsewhere). Let's talk about when Novak's reign starts to be challenged. Who do you think it will be? And when?
So there are several related questions to consider:
1. When will Novak start to decline?
2. Who will challenge him for Slams and other big tournaments, and eventually the #1 ranking?
3. Will his reign end because he's old, or because of the greatness of the challenger(s) or a combination of both?
Of course this is all speculation, but let's have at it.
A few thoughts to get us started. As I've said before, in my "generational theory," tennis generations last roughly five years and can best be defined by birth years ending on a 9 and a 4. So for instance, Rafa, Novak and Andy are in the 1984-88 generation; Nishikori, Raonic, and Dimitrov are in the 1989-93 generation - a generation which begins with Nishikori (89) and ends with Jiri Vesely and Dominic Thiem (both 1993). Then we have the youngest generation on tour, the 1994-98 generation, which begins with Lucas Pouille (94), and includes Nick Kyrgios (95), Borna Coric, Hyeon Chung, Thanasi Kokkinakis, and Jared Donaldson (all 96), Alex Zverev (97) and ends with Stefan Kozlov and Francis Tiafoe (both 98).
Now consider that players seem to be peaking a bit later these days. Novak Djokovic was in the top 10 by the time he was around 20, but didn't reach his peak until he was 23-24 in 2011. Andy's trajectory was about a year later. In this regard, Nadal is a bit of an outlier, or a throw-back to an earlier era. We can also look at players like Tomas Berdych, David Ferrer, and Stanislas Wawrinka who are having their best years in their late 20s, even early 30s. So we could look at a player like Grigor Dimitrov, who just turned 24, and hope that he can get a bit better, but probably not much more.
Now let's look at Novak's (and Andy's) ages going forward, with their birthdays in May and thus mid-season - these are represented in parentheses in bold. Then let's look at the ages of various players over those years:
2015 (27-28): Nishikori (25-26), Raonic (24-25), Dimitrov (23-24), Vesely/Thiem (21-22), Kyrgios (19-20), Coric/Chung/Kokkinakis (18-19), Zverev (17-18), Kozlov/Tiafoe (16-17).
2016 (28-29): Nishikori (26-27), Raonic (25-26), Dimitrov (24-25), Vesely/Thiem (22-23), Kyrgios (20-21), Coric/Chung/Kokkinakis (19-20), Zverev (18-19), Kozlov/Tiafoe (17-18).
2017 (29-30): Nishikori (27-28), Raonic (26-27), Dimitrov (25-26), Vesely/Thiem (23-24), Kyrgios (21-22), Coric/Chung/Kokkinakis (20-21), Zverev (19-20), Kozlov/Tiafoe (18-19).
2018 (30-31): Nishikori (28-29), Raonic (27-28), Dimitrov (26-27), Vesely/Thiem (24-25), Kyrgios (22-23), Coric/Chung/Kokkinakis (21-22), Zverev (20-21), Kozlov/Tiafoe (19-20).
2019 (31-32): Nishikori (29-30), Raonic (28-29), Dimitrov (27-28), Vesely/Thiem (25-26), Kyrgios (23-24), Coric/Chung/Kokkinakis (22-23), Zverev (21-22), Kozlov/Tiafoe (20-21).
(If this looks familiar it is because I wrote up something similar a few months back).
Anyhow, it is interesting to line up the ages to get a sense of how old different players will be relative to each other. We don't know how Andy and Novak will age, as they haven't shown any signs of decline yet, and we don' know how many of the above players will develop or what their peak will be like (or when), but this gives us something to look at.
I think things could start getting interesting in 2017, when Novak and Andy turn 30 and you have Nishikori, Raonic, and Dimitrov "ripe on the vine" - past the point of hungry into starvation (assuming they haven't won anything big). A 23-year old Grigor Dimitrov looks anemic versus a 27-year old Novak Djokovic, but how will it look when Grigor is 26 and Novak 30? So all three, and perhaps one or two others of their generation, could be perpetual dark-horse candidates to upset the top guys. But then you have players like Kyrgios, Coric, and others coming more fully into their own.
Just looking at that chart above, my guess is that the Reign of Novak will continue largely unchallenged through 2016, but the cracks will start showing in 2017. By the time we get to 2018, we'll be seeing a regime change with the possible emergence of a new superstar or two that year. Certainly by 2019, Novak is unlikely to remain the top-dog. But I suspect he'll hang around the top 5 for another year or three, not unlike Roger once he hit his 30s.
Of course the bottom line is this: who knows? But what do you think?
He's never going to decline. He will get the patent on the egg passed and reign forever. 
