What do you see going forward for Nadal?

[El Dude]

Rafa Nadal's struggles have been a big topic of conversation lately, with a wide range of views presented but seemingly a majority feeling that he'll bounce back somewhat, although probably not to peak levels. Now clearly we simply don't know - but the point here is to speculate, and I thought it would be interesting to put this into a poll. So vote away!

p.s. I don't mean to complete with the Sampras thread, but thought a poll would be good.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

It will be either option 2 or option 3.

 

[Riotbeard]

I am more and more leaning towards slight improvement and PROBABLY no more slams. I just think the longer it goes the harder it will be as more young player develop, and Novak and Andy are far more confident against him. It's no longer just getting back form. It will also be very difficult for him to instill fear back in the tour. He is just so far away from beating Novak or even Andy on their best days right now, that I think he has a long way to go. And unless, he turns it around in say the next week, it's going to be tough for him to build back confidence even in the fall, going into his traditionally worst quarter of the season.

Two months ago, I would have said 99% that he had another slam in him, but I just don't see any real progress in his game, and don't see much happening in the rest of the year. His best shot at one more slam IMO is next year's F.O., but with guys like Stan out there, Andy finally realizing his potential on clay, and not to mention Novak, it could be (outside of Rafa) one of the toughest set of contenders at the F.O. next year.

Nadal is guy where I would never say never, but right now, I really don't see it.

 

[nehmeth]

Somewhere between 2/3. He may take one more French, but would not be surprised if he didn't win any more. Magic genie or no, he has a better level in him than what he's playing now.

 

[El Dude]

I also agree with the 2/3 option - I guess I should have added another option, but 3 is the closest in that it could include another Slam whereas 2 is probably at least one more.

I think Rafa has the equivalent of Sampras' 2002 Wimbledon in him - either 2016 or 2017 at Roland Garros. My sense is Novak takes next year, but Rafa comes back and takes it in 2017 then sales off into the Mallorcan sunset.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Pretty much what GSM said.

 

[Puppet Master]

I am the only one that voted for option #5, and believe me, I wish I was wrong.
All this talk about confidence during 2015 is absurd. It has nothing to do with confidence anymore. It's just complete decline of each and every element in his game. Now realistically, we saw his 2014 RG level and as expected he crashed out early at Wimbo. I don't have much to say about this, but everything after that, has been like a nightmare and I am just waiting for someone to wake me up. I mean, when did SUCH a decline happen? He had the appendix surgery and I thought he would be up and running during '15 AO. All of you have to realise that he lost his #1 ranking right after last year's Wimbo, and he would have kept it if Fed won it. This fact seems insane to me at least.
And I watched him practice in Cincinnati on YouTube and I have to say, he was frustrated as hell. He doesn't seem like he can take the stress anymore and on top of all that he has lost quite a bit of interest and passion for the sport. Going down quietly seems like the next step, as hard as it is to say it. Why compete with all those big bad top 10 players, who make you nervous when you can go fishing in Mallorca.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Just read an article titled "Nadal is plummeting at a greater rate than anybody expected" on the Telegraph. I just want to point out that this is rubbish as people have been predicting the end for Nadal for years, dating back to 2009, and especially after his 7 months layoff in 2012. If anything he held up longer than one would have expected 3 years ago.

 

[Kieran]

Plummeting? He's just risen two places in the rankings... :snicker

 

[Carol]

Lol, funny the votes about he won't to win any more GS. Don't be too upset if he wins, ok? :snicker

 

[BIG3]

2 on clay.
3-4 on other surface.

 

[Front242]

^ Presume the above relates to the options in the poll and not potentially another 6 slams

 

[herios]

I am the only one that voted for option #5, and believe me, I wish I was wrong.
All this talk about confidence during 2015 is absurd. It has nothing to do with confidence anymore. It's just complete decline of each and every element in his game. Now realistically, we saw his 2014 RG level and as expected he crashed out early at Wimbo. I don't have much to say about this, but everything after that, has been like a nightmare and I am just waiting for someone to wake me up. I mean, when did SUCH a decline happen? He had the appendix surgery and I thought he would be up and running during '15 AO. All of you have to realise that he lost his #1 ranking right after last year's Wimbo, and he would have kept it if Fed won it. This fact seems insane to me at least.
And I watched him practice in Cincinnati on YouTube and I have to say, he was frustrated as hell. He doesn't seem like he can take the stress anymore and on top of all that he has lost quite a bit of interest and passion for the sport. Going down quietly seems like the next step, as hard as it is to say it. Why compete with all those big bad top 10 players, who make you nervous when you can go fishing in Mallorca.

He is ranked 8 in the world. Would have been 18 or 28, what would you say then?

 

[Puppet Master]

I am the only one that voted for option #5, and believe me, I wish I was wrong.
All this talk about confidence during 2015 is absurd. It has nothing to do with confidence anymore. It's just complete decline of each and every element in his game. Now realistically, we saw his 2014 RG level and as expected he crashed out early at Wimbo. I don't have much to say about this, but everything after that, has been like a nightmare and I am just waiting for someone to wake me up. I mean, when did SUCH a decline happen? He had the appendix surgery and I thought he would be up and running during '15 AO. All of you have to realise that he lost his #1 ranking right after last year's Wimbo, and he would have kept it if Fed won it. This fact seems insane to me at least.
And I watched him practice in Cincinnati on YouTube and I have to say, he was frustrated as hell. He doesn't seem like he can take the stress anymore and on top of all that he has lost quite a bit of interest and passion for the sport. Going down quietly seems like the next step, as hard as it is to say it. Why compete with all those big bad top 10 players, who make you nervous when you can go fishing in Mallorca.

He is ranked 8 in the world. Would have been 18 or 28, what would you say then?

Like Jim Henson said in the rap battle: We all have a time to go. I get that, but, do you really think a player of Nadal's calibre would float in the 15-50 range in the rankings? I am protesting because he doesn't need to be there yet. The fact that you said this to me, and you don't give a flying %u&k about Rafa is ironic to say the least. I've seen you complain about Novak making, what, 3-4 more errors than usual in his match against Paire, who is a talented dude and played great for a few games. Please. What the hell would you say if your guy was at #31 in the rankings?

 

[mrzz]

He'll start losing more and more, will fall beyond #100 in some months, and after struggling to win challengers he will be caught bribing an umpire. He will lose his temper and attack and ATP person, ending up in prison. His money will be made unavailable due to the investigations that will be taking place at the time, and his bail will be payed by Federer, who will cry on a press conference saying "I did it for the sport, but he is a great man, and no one should put his titles on doubt because of all of this."

 

[Carol]

He'll start losing more and more, will fall beyond #100 in some months, and after struggling to win challengers he will be caught bribing an umpire. He will lose his temper and attack and ATP person, ending up in prison. His money will be made unavailable due to the investigations that will be taking place at the time, and his bail will be payed by Federer, who will cry on a press conference saying "I did it for the sport, but he is a great man, and no one should put his titles on doubt because of all of this."

Yeah......and then you wake up :lolz:

 

[the AntiPusher]

/
I am the only one that voted for option #5, and believe me, I wish I was wrong.
All this talk about confidence during 2015 is absurd. It has nothing to do with confidence anymore. It's just complete decline of each and every element in his game. Now realistically, we saw his 2014 RG level and as expected he crashed out early at Wimbo. I don't have much to say about this, but everything after that, has been like a nightmare and I am just waiting for someone to wake me up. I mean, when did SUCH a decline happen? He had the appendix surgery and I thought he would be up and running during '15 AO. All of you have to realise that he lost his #1 ranking right after last year's Wimbo, and he would have kept it if Fed won it. This fact seems insane to me at least.
And I watched him practice in Cincinnati on YouTube and I have to say, he was frustrated as hell. He doesn't seem like he can take the stress anymore and on top of all that he has lost quite a bit of interest and passion for the sport. Going down quietly seems like the next step, as hard as it is to say it. Why compete with all those big bad top 10 players, who make you nervous when you can go fishing in Mallorca.

So you saying that Rafa has fallen off since his play at Hamburg? A course Rafa didn't play the top 10 ranked players on the ATP but his tennis was pretty good but not at a grand slam championship level. Give him time to get his confidence back where he needs it to be.

 

[mrzz]

He'll start losing more and more, will fall beyond #100 in some months, and after struggling to win challengers he will be caught bribing an umpire. He will lose his temper and attack and ATP person, ending up in prison. His money will be made unavailable due to the investigations that will be taking place at the time, and his bail will be payed by Federer, who will cry on a press conference saying "I did it for the sport, but he is a great man, and no one should put his titles on doubt because of all of this."

Yeah......and then you wake up :lolz:

You're lucky that I did not have the time to explain what happens to him in prison.

 

[Carol]

He'll start losing more and more, will fall beyond #100 in some months, and after struggling to win challengers he will be caught bribing an umpire. He will lose his temper and attack and ATP person, ending up in prison. His money will be made unavailable due to the investigations that will be taking place at the time, and his bail will be payed by Federer, who will cry on a press conference saying "I did it for the sport, but he is a great man, and no one should put his titles on doubt because of all of this."

Yeah......and then you wake up :lolz:

You're lucky that I did not have the time to explain what happens to him in prison.

And you are lucky that you are hidden behind the computer and not in front of me :emperor:

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Even though Rafa is in decline, he is still #8 in rankings and #7 in race. So, the feeling that he sucks here are caused partly due to expectations of fans on him. I think he can work his way into top 4 or better in time for the clay season of 2016 and try to have a good run there (i.e, half of the marbles out there on clay).

Leaving aside rankings and results, play wise, there are definitely two things he can improve.
1. His serve currently is abysmal. He can surely improve it. After all, serve is one shot over which a player has complete control. 2. He is hitting a lot of balls short and that can also be improved with more practice and confidence.

However, he is not going to get his movement bac to where it was in 2013 or before and so even when he "gets it back", he will be out of position many times. As a result, he will not be able to string together a series of tournament wins like before (recall that before, his pattern was to go on a winning spree once on). It will be alternating results of good run and then an unexpected loss. As an example, he might win MC, lose Barcelona in SF, Madrid in 3rd round, win Rome, Lose at SF in RG.

While I would not be surprised if he does not win another Slam, I am thinking he will probably win one more RG (most likely in 2016 as it generally becomes more difficult to win, the longer you are off).
While Roddick's position is that "he will probably never win a slam", my position is that "he will probably win one more slam".