US Politics Thread

[britbox]

First of all this election will not be resolved on election night unless Biden wins Texas and Florida (then a reasonable but not definitive projection could be made) so I'm not sure why you're looking at that scenario. This is not what he said. If you don't understand the difference then I can't help you. He refused to commit to a peaceful transition of power if he loses. He is basically implying that even if he loses in a landslide he will not commit to a peaceful transfer of power. If you think that Biden will not concede if he has definitively lost then I don't know what world you living on.

Nobody will concede on the night - if you think they will then I don't know what world you are living on frankly. You'll have millions of unprecedented mail-in votes to plough through to begin with. Check out the Transition Integrity Project when you get chance and all the various game planning. This is not an election like the "good old days" brother... it's win at any cost and the stakes are high.

 

[britbox]

Federbergy is apparently too clueless to know that Hillary still has major influence at the higher levels of the Democratic Party. It’s also funny how he is completely silent on the news that Hunter Biden’s company took $3.5 million from the wife of the former mayor of Moscow. Wasn’t Tinfoil Federturd concerned about “Russia ties”? I guess not anymore.

As for the point about peaceful transition of power, here are some great recent tweets on that subject.....

Possibly all true, but semi-irrelevant. I respect you for speaking your mind and avoiding groupthink but I don't think you realize the precarious position the United States is in right now regarding global positioning. Trump has a lot of powerful enemies - Big Tech, Big Pharma, the petrodollar is on a fast track to running out of steam and his disdain of potential global allies is self-defeating. The United States is the weakest I've seen it in my lifetime.

 

[Federberg]

Nobody will concede on the night - if you think they will then I don't know what world you are living on frankly. You'll have millions of unprecedented mail-in votes to plough through to begin with. Check out the Transition Integrity Project when you get chance and all the various game planning. This is not an election like the "good old days" brother... it's win at any cost and the stakes are high.

Perhaps you misunderstood my comment. Of course no one is going to concede in election night. I brought up the scenario of Texas and Florida going to Biden as a low probability event which should mean that the numbers are massively in Biden's favour and electoral pundits would read that as a clear Biden win. Even in that unlikely scenario there would be no reason for Trump to concede as he would rightly want to see other results. Why did I mention Florida and Texas? Because they are one of the States that will have results on election night given the way those States count. For your edification those States permit the early count of mail in votes. I'm certainly not saying that would happen

 

[Federberg]

^And again... I repeat.. this is not about concession. You seem to be wilfully misunderstanding me. Trump refused to confirm that he would agree to a peaceful transfer of power. That is not about concession. It's more than that. If you don't understand that then I can't help you

 

[britbox]

Perhaps you misunderstood my comment. Of course no one is going to concede in election night. I brought up the scenario of Texas and Florida going to Biden as a low probability event which should mean that the numbers are massively in Biden's favour and electoral pundits would read that as a clear Biden win. Even in that unlikely scenario there would be no reason for Trump to concede as he would rightly want to see other results. Why did I mention Florida and Texas? Because they are one of the States that will have results on election night given the way those States count. For your edification those States permit the early count of mail in votes. I'm certainly not saying that would happen

I think Trump will hang on to Texas, but agree Florida is where it is at. Nobody will be conceding that one for sure.

 

[britbox]

^And again... I repeat.. this is not about concession. You seem to be wilfully misunderstanding me. Trump refused to confirm that he would agree to a peaceful transfer of power. That is not about concession. It's more than that. If you don't understand that then I can't help you

I'm absolutely not misunderstanding you. It's alarming. However, you need to understand that the same approach is being run by the Dems. Take a step back and acknowledge that it's a pretty sad situation all around. It reflects really badly on the United States. Particularly when they have interfered with foreign elections from a moral high ground over the last 40-50 years or so... that's been blown out of the water... but understand this... it's a two way street, not a one way street - in respect of both major US parties.

 

[Federberg]

I'm absolutely not misunderstanding you. It's alarming. However, you need to understand that the same approach is being run by the Dems. Take a step back and acknowledge that it's a pretty sad situation all around. It reflects really badly on the United States. Particularly when they have interfered with foreign elections from a moral high ground over the last 40-50 years or so... that's been blown out of the water... but understand this... it's a two way street, not a one way street - in respect of both major US parties.

you clearly are misunderstanding or attempting to be obtuse. Trump is the President. What the Dems is say is utterly irrelevant (although I would like you to show me one comment any Democrat has made about a scenario where Trump wins). Trump is the President. Do you not understand what that means? He is in power. He is the only one who can agree or refuse to agree to leave power peacefully. I can't believe I'm being forced to point this out. This is bat shit crazy

 

[britbox]

I would like you to show me one comment any Democrat has made about a scenario where Trump wins

"Joe Biden should not concede under any circumstances" - Hillary Clinton

Wasn't that reported in the Washington Post? Vary your news sources brother... I suggested that a long time ago.

 

[Federberg]

"Joe Biden should not concede under any circumstances" - Hillary Clinton

Wasn't that reported in the Washington Post? Vary your news sources brother... I suggested that a long time ago.

I read Hillary Clinton's comments. Sadly you are the one who is misinformed. She merely said that Biden should not concede on election night - November 3rd. We have just established that there wouldn't be a definitive result on that day. There is nothing comparable or controversial about that statement. If you think that that is the same as Trump not willing to accept a peaceful transfer of power then there is really no helping you...

 

[Jelenafan]

This seems to have been written eons ago, aka Nov 2019

Do TV Debates Sway Voters?

Presidential debates often result in memorable zingers and gaffes, but don't influence voters, says research by Vincent Pons.

hbswk.hbs.edu

Excerpts:

have only a negligible effect on voters’ candidate choice, according to new research from Harvard Business School. In fact, 72 percent of voters make up their minds more than two months before the election, often before candidates square off. And those who shift to a different candidate closer to the election don’t do it following TV debates.

A large fraction of voters change their minds during the campaign. The percentage of voters who had settled on a candidate rose by 15 percentage points, from 72 percent to 87 percent, during the two months before an election, indicating that the information received in this period matters overall.

While one of these candidates might square off with Trump at the podiums next year, the election’s winner will ultimately depend on a campaign’s ability to reach voters in person. Even in a high tech world, the best place to change the minds of voters, especially disenchanted voters, is on their doorsteps, Pons says.

Voters who dismiss the canned responses of a well-groomed candidate might listen to an activist from the same town or a similar background. And the fact that these canvassers tend to be unpaid volunteers makes these conversations even more meaningful.

Becuase of this pandemic scenario, just curious to opinions if these assumptions still hold. It would seem to me that most persons minds would be made up and it would be harder to sway them to change within this 2 month period due to much more limited personal campaigning or canvassing by volunteers.

IMO The biggest unknown factor, the Wild card so to speak, could be how both bases are able to get their side to register for mail in votes.

 

[Federberg]

This seems to have been written eons ago, aka Nov 2019

Do TV Debates Sway Voters?

Presidential debates often result in memorable zingers and gaffes, but don't influence voters, says research by Vincent Pons.

hbswk.hbs.edu

Excerpts:







Becuase of this pandemic scenario, just curious to opinions if these assumptions still hold. It would seem to me that most persons minds would be made up and it would be harder to sway them to change within this 2 month period due to much more limited personal campaigning or canvassing by volunteers.
The biggest unknown factor, the Wild card so to speak, could be how both bases are able to get their side to register for mail in votes.

I don't think the debates have much of an impact in the main. This time I think there is one potential effect debates could have. The Trump campaign has made a monumental error by creating such a low bar for Biden to pass over. They have made him out to be senile and incompetent. It's similar to the mistake the Carter made with Reagan. If there are independents who have doubts about Biden and he successfully navigates the debates that should be to his benefit. But I think that all of that might be secondary to the death of Justice Ginsberg. My sense is that a lot of the youth vote, particularly women in the 18 - 35 age range who historically haven't voted in significant numbers are likely to come out enthusiastically. It is entirely possible that current polling isn't going to accurately capture the Ginsberg effect. I suspect putting in a replacement Justice might be a Pyrrhic victory for Republicans. The backlash is likely to be fierce. I think we could be about to see a repeat of the 2018 mid-terms on steroids

 

[britbox]

I read Hillary Clinton's comments. Sadly you are the one who is misinformed. She merely said that Biden should not concede on election night - November 3rd. We have just established that there wouldn't be a definitive result on that day. There is nothing comparable or controversial about that statement. If you think that that is the same as Trump not willing to accept a peaceful transfer of power then there is really no helping you...

Can you provide a link to the full quote that mentioned November 3rd only.

 

[Federberg]

Can you provide a link to the full quote that mentioned November 3rd only.

you have to watch Showtime, but this give you the flavour...it's all about election night. What was it you said to me? Vary your news sources brother...

Reuters | Breaking International News & Views

Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage.

uk.reuters.com

 

[britbox]

you have to watch Showtime, but this give you the flavour...it's all about election night. What was it you said to me? Vary your news sources brother...

Reuters | Breaking International News & Views

Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage.

uk.reuters.com

you have to watch Showtime, but this give you the flavour...it's all about election night. What was it you said to me? Vary your news sources brother...

Reuters | Breaking International News & Views

Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage.

uk.reuters.com

It's obviously not because they are lawyered up already. By the way, if Trump is "narrowly" defeated on election night do you give him the same leeway not to concede?

 

[Federberg]

It's obviously not because they are lawyered up already. By the way, if Trump is "narrowly" defeated on election night do you give him the same leeway not to concede?

Absolutely. But that's quite beside the point. Again... I am forced to repeat myself. That was not what Trump was asked. He refused to say that he would support a peaceful transition of power. It stuns me that you don't comprehend the difference

 

[britbox]

Absolutely. But that's quite beside the point. Again... I am forced to repeat myself. That was not what Trump was asked. He refused to say that he would support a peaceful transition of power. It stuns me that you don't comprehend the difference

I've already acknowledged Trump is wrong on that issue. However, you know full well the Dems will not concede in any event, the court cases will begin and the mob will be out on the streets.

 

[britbox]

This seems to have been written eons ago, aka Nov 2019

Do TV Debates Sway Voters?

Presidential debates often result in memorable zingers and gaffes, but don't influence voters, says research by Vincent Pons.

hbswk.hbs.edu

Excerpts:

Becuase of this pandemic scenario, just curious to opinions if these assumptions still hold. It would seem to me that most persons minds would be made up and it would be harder to sway them to change within this 2 month period due to much more limited personal campaigning or canvassing by volunteers.

IMO The biggest unknown factor, the Wild card so to speak, could be how both bases are able to get their side to register for mail in votes.

I think they'll still have some relevance - a couple of percent could make all the difference in crucial swing states. Not just because of the people watching on the night, but how edited clips will feed into the campaign narratives. Biden is clearly most at risk from the TV debates. The fact he isn't doing any hard unscripted interviews outside softball friendly media isn't great preperation.

 

[calitennis127]

This is how vile the Democratic Party and its constituents actually are. They are showing their true colors for all to see:

 

[britbox]

This is how vile the Democratic Party and its constituents actually are. They are showing their true colors for all to see:

If the Dems win the election, does this sort of stuff peter out? I'm guessing it doesn't.

 

[calitennis127]

If the Dems win the election, does this sort of stuff peter out? I'm guessing it doesn't.

Partially, but not entirely. Some of this is definitely partisan rage over Trump being president - even though Republicans have virtually no representation or power in the places where incidents of police brutality are occurring. But there is a more profound rage present among the mob that isn’t going away. In fact, it is getting worse.

If you look at Portland and Minneapolis, for example, the mayors and governments of both cities are almost entirely Democrat, but the Antifa mobs are raging against the mayors there and demanding they resign. They don’t care that the Democratic mayors (Wheeler in Portland and Frey in Minneapolis) sympathize with them.

I would remind you that there were major riots and protests while Obama was president as well (Ferguson in 2014, Baltimore in 2015, Milwaukee and Charlotte in 2016). It has only intensified since Trump was elected, but he is far from the only target. The mobs are protesting against “the system” in cities where Democrats have total control.