US OPEN early discussion

[herios]

Qualifications have started today.
Draw:

http://www.usopen.org/en_US/draws/index.html?promo=subnav&event=MQ

There are 4 top 100 players, all of whom were not as high ranked when the cut-off happened:
Sugita, Kravchuk, Khachanov and Monteiro.
Some veterans: Stepanek, Montanes, J. Melzer

 

[El Dude]

I don't know if it is because it is the last Slam of the year, or perhaps because it is the least "court-specialized" and most generic of the Slams (i.e. AO as slow hard, RG as slow clay, Wimbledon as fast grass, USO as medium hard), but it seems that the US Open is the most "anything goes" of the Slams--especially in recent years, since Roger stopped dominating. No one has won it two years in a row since Roger in 2004-08, with six different champions over the last eight years: Roger in 2008, del Potro in 2009, Rafa in 2010 and 2013, Novak in 2011 and 2015, Andy in 2012 and Cilic in 2014.

Obviously Novak and Andy are the favorites, and by a solid gap over the rest of the field, in my opinion. But there's some upset potential, especially from players like Cilic, Stan, and maybe Raonic or Nishikori. It is even vaguely possible that someone like Grigor Dimitrov builds upon his improved play of the last month or so and puts together a magical couple weeks (emphasis on "vaguely").

 

[herios]

On that note, that this is the most unpredictable slam in recent years, this is the slam who was won by the two active one slam winners and who are also the youngest among them: Delpo and Cilic.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are the odds of winning USO outright by some contenders.

1. Novak 11/10
2. Andy 2
3. Milos 16
4. JMDP 20
5. Man 25
6. Coughdrop 25
7. Beast 33
8. Samurai 44
9. Badboy 66
10. Thiem 90
11. Baby and Boxer100

 

[rafanoy1992]

Here are the odds of winning USO outright by some contenders.

1. Novak 11/10
2. Andy 2
3. Milos 16
4. JMDP 20
5. Man 25
6. Coughdrop 25
7. Beast 33
8. Samurai 44
9. Badboy 66
10. Thiem 90
11. Baby and Boxer100

Wow, I can not believe Del Potro is ahead of Wawrinka and Cilic! I understand he just reach the Olympics final match but a Slam is still a different animal. Also, as much I respect Ferrer, he should not be ahead of Nishikori in this list. Ferrer has struggled the whole year so I don't expect him to do well at the US Open.

 

[Front242]

Bookies must be smoking the good stuff if they think Del Potro has any shot of winning 7 best of 5 matches. Sure he did great at the Olympics but he played just 1 best of 5 match there and lost.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Here are the odds of winning USO outright by some contenders.

1. Novak 11/10
2. Andy 2
3. Milos 16
4. JMDP 20
5. Man 25
6. Coughdrop 25
7. Beast 33
8. Samurai 44
9. Badboy 66
10. Thiem 90
11. Baby and Boxer100

Wow, I can not believe Del Potro is ahead of Wawrinka and Cilic! I understand he just reach the Olympics final match but a Slam is still a different animal. Also, as much I respect Ferrer, he should not be ahead of Nishikori in this list. Ferrer has struggled the whole year so I don't expect him to do well at the US Open.

Is #7 Beast aka Rafa ?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are the odds of winning USO outright by some contenders.

1. Novak 11/10
2. Andy 2
3. Milos 16
4. JMDP 20
5. Man 25
6. Coughdrop 25
7. Beast 33
8. Samurai 44
9. Badboy 66
10. Thiem 90
11. Baby and Boxer100

Wow, I can not believe Del Potro is ahead of Wawrinka and Cilic! I understand he just reach the Olympics final match but a Slam is still a different animal. Also, as much I respect Ferrer, he should not be ahead of Nishikori in this list. Ferrer has struggled the whole year so I don't expect him to do well at the US Open.

Ferrer is usually called "Little Beast", as Beast is reserved for someone form Mallorca.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Where is Schwartzman man? This is his to lose...

I am expecting Stan to do something here if he survives the first week.

 

[Great Hands]

It seems to me that the no.1 thing that will impact who wins this USO is the state of Novak Djokovic's wrist.

If it's o.k. then he will almost certainly win the title. If it's not, then step forward Andy, as long as he's rested enough, or maybe Marin or Milos? Stan, Rafa, Kei and Delpo are outside chances, and I would expect at least some of these to at least get to the latter stages.

This USO feels intriguing to me, because the way the tournament will pan out seems quite uncertain at this point, which is a good thing...

 

[the AntiPusher]

Rafa should be twisting and turning in his bed at night about the prospects of a less than 100% mentally/physically (possibly) Novak.

 

[Kieran]

Rafa should be twisting and turning in his bed at night about the prospects of a less than 100% mentally/physically (possibly) Novak.

Kinda like novak then, in the last two years, at the prospect of facing Rafa...

 

[herios]

Here are the odds of winning USO outright by some contenders.

1. Novak 11/10
2. Andy 2
3. Milos 16
4. JMDP 20
5. Man 25
6. Coughdrop 25
7. Beast 33
8. Samurai 44
9. Badboy 66
10. Thiem 90
11. Baby and Boxer100

Wow, I can not believe Del Potro is ahead of Wawrinka and Cilic! I understand he just reach the Olympics final match but a Slam is still a different animal. Also, as much I respect Ferrer, he should not be ahead of Nishikori in this list. Ferrer has struggled the whole year so I don't expect him to do well at the US Open.

I cannot remember Rafa ever having so poor odds. I guess the frequent early elimination is catching up.

 

[El Dude]

He hasn't made it to the QF of any Slam in 15 months, and not past the QF in over two years.

If I had money to burn and were a betting man, I'd be tempted to put a few bucks on Stan, Cilic, Rafa, and Thiem. Stan because he's overdue to go Stanimal on the tour, Cilic because his recent performance warrants it, Rafa because he's Rafa, and Thiem because those odds are so low.

 

[Fiero425]

He hasn't made it to the QF of any Slam in 15 months, and not past the QF in over two years.

If I had money to burn and were a betting man, I'd be tempted to put a few bucks on Stan, Cilic, Rafa, and Thiem. Stan because he's overdue to go Stanimal on the tour, Cilic because his recent performance warrants it, Rafa because he's Rafa, and Thiem because those odds are so low.

This USO is as wide open as any of late! It takes me back to '85; Becker came out of nowhere to win Queens and BJK was commentating and thought he had a great chance to win Wimbledon! How could she know Curren would be "in the zone" taking out a "stupefied" & staggering McEnroe and an "overmatched" Connors, with frequently interrupted matches due to torrential rains? The choke of Jarryd who had a great chance to continue a Swedish tradition in winning on grass when he lost in semi to Boris helped a lot! :cover :nono

 

[GameSetAndMath]

It would be fun if Delpo wins after 7 years. lot

He has some improvement in non-slice backhand. He now has confidence by going deep in Rio and He is well rested as he did not play after that. Anything is possible.

 

[Carol]

Yes!

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Novak lost today.

 

[Carol]

Novak lost today.

Where? :huh:

 

[El Dude]

Cute, GS&M. He's not wrong, though - Novak did lose today.