Let's just put it this way: at this point Roger has a better chance of reaching the final than Rafa. Consider their likely paths:
Roger: Mischa Zverev should be easy, and his s&v won't hold up against Roger; Stan Wawrinka (or Tsonga) has beaten Roger, and recently, but Roger still holds the edge overall
Rafa: Gael Monfils - probably an easy win for Rafa, but you never know; Milos Raonic is very dangerous and probably a 50-50 matchup for Rafa; Grigor Dimitrov is playing the best tennis of his life (with apologies to Goffin and Bautista Agut)
But we really could be looking at a Fedal final, and if it is then it is probably going to be the last one ever. Roger won't reach the FO final, and Rafa won't reach Wimbledon final. Maybe US Open? But this seems like a perfect storm scenario that won't come again...
And we're still probably going to see Stan vs. Milos. I'm personally hoping for Roger vs. Grigor, but Roger vs. Rafa would be epic, if scary.