Tracking the Race to London - 2014 WTF

[GameSetAndMath]

We have a standing thread to keep track of ranking changes. In the same spirit,
It would be fun to keep track of the top 8 spots in the race to London every week.
As all of you know, these will be players who will be invited to play WTF in November.

This is as of 10th Feb. Tomorrow, new list will come out. You would be surprised by
some of the names in the list right now. Monfils and FFF are there. You would
also be surprised by absences. Murray is conspicuous by absence. Of course,
it is too early in the year and this list will keep changing.

1 Wawrinka, Stanislas (SUI) 2,290
2 Nadal, Rafael (ESP) 1,450
3 Federer, Roger (SUI) 910
4 Berdych, Tomas (CZE) 875
5 Djokovic, Novak (SRB) 510
5 Fognini, Fabio (ITA) 510
7 Monfils, Gael (FRA) 490
8 Ferrer, David (ESP) 470

I hope somebody or other would post the top 8 from the race each
week to this thread to keep it alive.

 

[Kieran]

RE: Tracking the Race to London

Here we are, week 2 (17 February) :


Race To London

1 Wawrinka, Stanislas (SUI) 2,290
2 Nadal, Rafael (ESP) 1,450
3 Berdych, Tomas (CZE) 1,375
4 Federer, Roger (SUI) 910
5 Ferrer, David (ESP) 720
6 Cilic, Marin (CRO) 660
6 Fognini, Fabio (ITA) 660
8 Nishikori, Kei (JPN) 600

 

[masterclass]

RE: Tracking the Race to London

We also have the 2014 Top 10 Contest Thread.

I suggested that that thread be made a sticky, so we could have interesting discussion and keep track of the race rankings throughout the year, but it wasn't. :nono

Respectfully,
masterclass

 

[GameSetAndMath]

RE: Tracking the Race to London

Here we are, week 2 (17 February) :


Race To London

1 Wawrinka, Stanislas (SUI) 2,290
2 Nadal, Rafael (ESP) 1,450
3 Berdych, Tomas (CZE) 1,375
4 Federer, Roger (SUI) 910
5 Ferrer, David (ESP) 720
6 Cilic, Marin (CRO) 660
6 Fognini, Fabio (ITA) 660
8 Nishikori, Kei (JPN) 600

Wow, even Novak is not there. Three folks (Cilic, FFF, Nishikori) who are not in
current top 8 in rankings. Let us see how long they get to stay there.

 

[Kieran]

RE: Tracking the Race to London

Here we go, 24 February, race to London:

1 Wawrinka, Stanislas (SUI) 2,290
2 Nadal, Rafael (ESP) 1,950
3 Berdych, Tomas (CZE) 1,375
4 Cilic, Marin (CRO) 910
4 Federer, Roger (SUI) 910
6 Ferrer, David (ESP) 900
7 Fognini, Fabio (ITA) 750
8 Nishikori, Kei (JPN) 620
______________________________

For the record, Gulbis has moved into 10th, pushing Nole into 11th place. Obviously Djokovic is finished as a force and should retire!

 

[GameSetAndMath]

RE: Tracking the Race to London

Of couse, it is too early. But, one question is will we see Cilic in WTF this year?
He seems to steadily making progress.

 

[Kieran]

RE: Tracking the Race to London

Of couse, it is too early. But, one question is will we see Cilic in WTF this year?
He seems to steadily making progress.

Well, here's the ranking at 4th November 2013, the week before the WTF:

1 Nadal, Rafael (ESP) 12,030
2 Djokovic, Novak (SRB) 10,610
3 Ferrer, David (ESP) 5,800
4 Murray, Andy (GBR) 5,790
5 Del Potro, Juan Martin (ARG) 5,055
6 Berdych, Tomas (CZE) 3,980
7 Federer, Roger (SUI) 3,805
8 Wawrinka, Stanislas (SUI) 3,330

So, Stan qualified with 3330 points. Cilic already has 910, or more than a quarter of that. There's no saying how low the threshold will be this year, of course. Last year, Rafa and Nole gobbled up most of the MS & GS titles. This year has started with a lower spread for the top 2, and an outlier getting the 2-grand from Oz. This isn't science, but it could be open, with the 8th ranked place needing more than 4000 points.

In 2012, 8th spot (Tsonga) had 3490 points, and in 2011, 8th place (Tsonga) had only 2935 points...

 

[Front242]

RE: Tracking the Race to London

Going out on a limb here to say I think yet again Tsonga will fail to qualify for the WTF. I hope not as he's very good on that surface. But he seems to be a bit out of form and I'm not going by Gulbis' win at all as that was a very close scoreline, but even before that he hasn't been great. Granted injury late last year did slow his return to form, but I just think he'll slip down a bit more in the rankings. Hopefully not though as I like his game when he's playing well.

Maybe it's like a Samson thing, except in this case it's not cutting his hair that's messing with his performance but that damned awful hairdo he's got right now! Shave it off, Jo and get your mojo back! It looks dense!

 

[GameSetAndMath]

RE: Tracking the Race to London

I too think Tsonga will not make the cut again this year. But, I do want him there
and will be rooting for him to make it.

 

[Kieran]

RE: Tracking the Race to London

I don't care about Tsonga. Time to give someone else a shot. That guy is going nowhere... :nono

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

RE: Tracking the Race to London

I don't care about Tsonga. Time to give someone else a shot. That guy is going nowhere... :nono

he has got a one way ticket to Heartbreak Avenue.

 

[herios]

RE: Tracking the Race to London

Going out on a limb here to say I think yet again Tsonga will fail to qualify for the WTF. I hope not as he's very good on that surface. But he seems to be a bit out of form and I'm not going by Gulbis' win at all as that was a very close scoreline, but even before that he hasn't been great. Granted injury late last year did slow his return to form, but I just think he'll slip down a bit more in the rankings. Hopefully not though as I like his game when he's playing well.

For me, the match with Gulbis was a very good indication why Tsonga never achieved more in his career. His game is too uni dimensional. Big serve and big forehand, and that is about it. When he has an opponent with a similar big serve and another weapon with more variety like Ernest was, he will lose. His FH (best shot) has no variety, just hit it as hard as you can, and many times he is misfiring.
Ernest was able to do so much more with his BH (best shot): CC. DTL and well disguised drop shots.
There was a thread with top 10 for 2014 predictions and I dropped Jo out of that. I am staying by that prognosais.

 

[Front242]

RE: Tracking the Race to London

Yup, good analysis, herios. Agree on Tsonga dropping out of the top 10 and I'd dearly love to see Tommy Haas take his place in there.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

RE: Tracking the Race to London

It is too early. That never stops me from looking at my crystal ball.

No matter, how bad they may appear to play (remember Fed last year),
I think they have enough pedigree to say that all members of Big Four will
make the cut to WTF.

Wawrinka already has about 2300 points or so. I see that it is almost
impossible for him not to make the cut. Also, he will have special exemption
(as long as he finishes in top 20 or so, which he will) even if he did notmake
the regular cut by virtue of winning a Grand Slam.

Similarly Berdych is also doing good and it is hard to imagine him not
making the cut. Most of his losses are usually to folks ranked above him.

So, basically we are looking at two open spots in WTF this year.

I also, think there will be a very tight race among about 8 or so folks
to get these two spots and the fight for these spots will go on till the last
minute.

 

[secrettennisjunkie]

RE: Tracking the Race to London

I know Ferrer has taken a bit of a step back but given the amount he plays and his prowess on clay it is hard to imagine him falling outside the top 8. So really we are looking at only one open spot for Del Potro, Tsonga, Gasquet, etc to fight over. And depending on del Potro's wrist he is the leading contender. Then you wonder why it's hard for young players to break through.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

RE: Tracking the Race to London

STJ, Ferrer is also well known for generally not losing to people that he should not lose.
However, his style is also basically a grinding style. Hence, I expect him to lose ground
as he ages. He is over 30 and so I am not considering him as a shoe in at this time for
the WTF. However, I would certainly consider him as the #1 contender for one of
the two slots open (after the Big Four, the Man and the Bird have taken 6 spots).

 

[herios]

RE: Tracking the Race to London

STJ, Ferrer is also well known for generally not losing to people that he should not lose.
However, his style is also basically a grinding style. Hence, I expect him to lose ground
as he ages. He is over 30 and so I am not considering him as a shoe in at this time for
the WTF. However, I would certainly consider him as the #1 contender for one of
the two slots open (after the Big Four, the Man and the Bird have taken 6 spots).

Ferrer may have peaked, but eing over 30 means not much when we talk about him, in fact he is the lone player who peaked over 30 (last year).

 

[secrettennisjunkie]

RE: Tracking the Race to London

STJ, Ferrer is also well known for generally not losing to people that he should not lose.
However, his style is also basically a grinding style. Hence, I expect him to lose ground
as he ages. He is over 30 and so I am not considering him as a shoe in at this time for
the WTF. However, I would certainly consider him as the #1 contender for one of
the two slots open (after the Big Four, the Man and the Bird have taken 6 spots).

Ferrer is generally under-appreciated and I myself doubted him for a few years but he took his game to the next level and then stayed there. But with his age and his form during the last half of '13 I do expect to take a step back. But I don't think his step back from no. 3 or no. 4 in the world will mean he falls outside the top 8. But time will tell.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

RE: Tracking the Race to London

The stocks of both JMDP and DF are down at this time to make WTF due to
injuries. But, it is a long year and they can come back. Let us keep fingers
crossed.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

RE: Tracking the Race to London

Here are the projected race spots that will be released tomorrow. As all the matches
that will affect this are already over, this is the final one except that it will not be
officially released by ATP until tomorrow, Monday, the 3rd of March 2014.

1 Stanislas Wawrinka SUI 2290
2 Rafael Nadal ESP 1955
3 Tomas Berdych CZE 1675
4 Roger Federer SUI 1410
5 David Ferrer ESP 990
6 Grigor Dimitrov BUL 925
7 Marin Cilic CRO 910
8 Fabio Fognini ITA 750

Note that Fed is back in Top 4. Also, note that Baby Fed makes it to Top 8.

Andy, Novak and JMDP are not yet in Top 8.