Tokyo Olympics 2021 - 24th July to 1st August 2021

[GameSetAndMath]

The common thing to Olympics and Pandemics is that it involves all nations. This time we have both together in Tokyo 2021. As a result players will be subjected to bubble, restrictions on team size and the matches will be played with no fans.

Andy Murray is the two time defending champion having won in both 2012 and 2016. As such he has been given a legacy entry.

A link to the entry list is given below. Many players have withdrawn. Even though some players' names appears in this list they may still withdraw (such as Novak, Federer and some others). Who do you think will win this year? Do you think an asterisk should be attached to all the medals this time in view of the pandemic and large number of withdrawals of significant players?

It starts on 24th July, less than two weeks from today.

Here is the Official Entry List that was last updated on 9th July 2021.

You can see the entry list for Men's Singles Event in a compact form here.

There are 58 direct entries, 5 continental entries (meant to accommodate countries whose players could not get entry in a direct manner) and 1 legacy entry (Sir Andy).

Six matches, all matches only three sets long and normal (not super) tie breakers in all sets at 6-6 (including the third set).

 

[GameSetAndMath]

TOKYO, July 12 (Reuters) - Olympic host city Tokyo entered a new state of emergency on Monday, less than two weeks before the Games begin amid worries about whether the measures can stem a rise in COVID-19 cases.

Organisers last week announced that spectators would be banned from nearly all venues. Spectators from abroad were already banned months ago, and officials are now asking residents to watch the Games on TV to keep the movement of people, which could spread contagion, to a minimum.

Opinion polls have consistently shown the Japanese public is concerned about going ahead with the Games during the pandemic.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

If you want to know how terrible this year's Olympics is read on.

There are 58 direct entrants. If this were an ATP tournament with 58 direct entries, the top 58 ranked players will participate. However, as this is Olympics, there is a restriction of maximum of four players per country and so some players would not get in to Olympics due to this rule. Further, due to pandemics, bubble and no fans situation, many players have withdrawn. As a result, the organizers have to go all the way to a player by name Kamil (from Poland) ranked #112 just to fill the 58 direct entries. Even in a grand slam event, Kamil would not get a direct entry as the cut off in grand slams is at #104 (128 minus 16 qualifier minus 8 wildcards).

...........and people wonder why Olympics is considered weaker than ATP 1000s.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Tokyo is in High Emergency for the 2 weeks of the Olympics meaning restaurants and bars will close at 8pm,alcohol is banned in bars and restaurants, ( they banned spectators last week from attending).

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Tokyo is in High Emergency for the 2 weeks of the Olympics meaning restaurants and bars will close at 8pm,alcohol is banned in bars and restaurants, ( they banned spectators last week from attending).

Now, we know why Kyrgios withdrew.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are the odds for different players winning Olympics (the odds are given in American style).

Player	ATP Ranking	Odds
Novak Djokovic	1	-112
Daniil Medvedev	2	+300
Stefanos Tsitsipas	4	+400
Alexander Zverev	5	+600
Andrey Rublev	7	+1100
Roger Federer	9	+1400
Jannik Sinner	23	+1500
Matteo Berrettini	8	+2000
Aslan Karatsev	24	+2000
Felix Auger-Aliassime	15	+2500

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Note: Shapo is not going to Olympics.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Goffin announced today that he won't be going either (as he has not yet recovered from his injuries).

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Some Players known NOT participating in Olympics: Rafa, Thiem, Shapo, Nick, Stan, RBA, Ruud, Isner, Opelka, Fritz, Garin

Some Players who have confirmed their participation: Med, Tits, Sasha, Rublev, Khachanov, Andy, Evans, Tiafoe, Berrettini, Schwartzman, De Minaur, Auger-Aliassime, Cilic, Monfils, Hurkacz, Humbert, Fucsovics, Nishikori, Bublik, Karatsev, Carreno Busta, Davidovich Fokina.

Some players sitting on the fence: Novak, Fed.

 

[El Dude]

I imagine Novak will play - this should be a pretty easy accomplishment to add to his resume. Looks like a glorified ATP 500 to me.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Breaking News: Federer says he will not be participating in Olympics as he “experienced a setback" with his knee during the grass-court season.

Hope it is minor, whatever it may be.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Roger still intends to play a lead up tournament before the USO,I feel he has made the right decision not attending the Olympics,if his knee is still bothering him,quite frankly with Tokyo in a 'state of emergency' with rising COVID cases daily,personally I would not want to go.Roger is to go into rehab for his knee.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I imagine Novak will play - this should be a pretty easy accomplishment to add to his resume. Looks like a glorified ATP 500 to me.

Ya, it is indeed a glorified 500. However, Novak is prone to upsets in 3 set matches. All matches in Olympics including the matches with a medal at stake are 3 set matches. So, an upset is possible. There is no room to recover if he does a walkabout.

Having said that the upsets in lower level tournaments happened to Novak because he was only semi-seriously playing them (at least this year). Given that this is Olympics with a gold medal (that he does not have) at stake, he may seriously play. If he does that there is no reason to think that he cannot win this one.

 

[Moxie]

If you want to know how terrible this year's Olympics is read on.

There are 58 direct entrants. If this were an ATP tournament with 58 direct entries, the top 58 ranked players will participate. However, as this is Olympics, there is a restriction of maximum of four players per country and so some players would not get in to Olympics due to this rule. Further, due to pandemics, bubble and no fans situation, many players have withdrawn. As a result, the organizers have to go all the way to a player by name Kamil (from Poland) ranked #112 just to fill the 58 direct entries. Even in a grand slam event, Kamil would not get a direct entry as the cut off in grand slams is at #104 (128 minus 16 qualifier minus 8 wildcards).

...........and people wonder why Olympics is considered weaker than ATP 1000s.

In fairness, you are comparing a pandemic year to normal years, right?

 

[Moxie]

Ya, it is indeed a glorified 500. However, Novak is prone to upsets in 3 set matches. All matches in Olympics including the matches with a medal at stake are 3 set matches. So, an upset is possible. There is no room to recover if he does a walkabout.

Having said that the upsets in lower level tournaments happened to Novak because he was only semi-seriously playing them (at least this year). Given that this is Olympics with a gold medal (that he does not have) at stake, he may seriously play. If he does that there is no reason to think that he cannot win this one.

You and I were debating on another thread if Novak would be wise to go. For sure, there's no reason to think he can't win. However, if many of the people on these forums are to be believed and the Olympics is an anomaly in the structure and the unpredictability of outcome, there is a big risk that Novak takes in going there. Yes, he's very popular in Asia and tends to do well there. But who knows how the draws shake out. And, as you say, the Bo3 format favors upset. My personal theory is that the loss in Rio was part of Djokovic's mental decline in 2016. For sure, he won't feel like he "needs" the Olympic Gold as much as he may have thought in 2016, he still wants it, if he goes there. He's unlikely to have a dangerous floater like delPotro first round this year. But say he gets to the SFs and gets upset? That could happen. Then he'll have gone half way around the world for nothing. Personally, I hope he goes and dampens his squib for the US Open. But if I were on his team, I'd counsel him to keep his eyes on the prize, which is the CYGS.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

You and I were debating on another thread if Novak would be wise to go. For sure, there's no reason to think he can't win. However, if many of the people on these forums are to be believed and the Olympics is an anomaly in the structure and the unpredictability of outcome, there is a big risk that Novak takes in going there. Yes, he's very popular in Asia and tends to do well there. But who knows how the draws shake out. And, as you say, the Bo3 format favors upset. My personal theory is that the loss in Rio was part of Djokovic's mental decline in 2016. For sure, he won't feel like he "needs" the Olympic Gold as much as he may have thought in 2016, he still wants it, if he goes there. He's unlikely to have a dangerous floater like delPotro first round this year. But say he gets to the SFs and gets upset? That could happen. Then he'll have gone half way around the world for nothing. Personally, I hope he goes and dampens his squib for the US Open. But if I were on his team, I'd counsel him to keep his eyes on the prize, which is the CYGS.

I would recommend him to go. If he wins, well and good. If he loses, no big deal and actually a positive thing as it acts like a relief from the pressure he faces.

Sort of like losing MonteCarlo etc before winning RG. He can lose Olympics and then come and win USO.

 

[Moxie]

I would recommend him to go. If he wins, well and good. If he loses, no big deal and actually a positive thing as it acts like a relief from the pressure he faces.

Sort of like losing MonteCarlo etc before winning RG. He can lose Olympics and then come and win USO.

If it works out that way. But I don't see how not winning Olympic Gold acts as any kind of a steam-valve. The comparison to MC-RG makes no sense to me. Novak is chasing history, and he knows it. The only reason to go to Tokyo is to get the Golden career slam, or, ideally, the Golden Grand Slam, which only Steffi Graf has. If he goes to Tokyo, he increases the pressure on himself. He would be going for only one reason. Anything short of Olympic Gold will have been a waste of emotional energy.

Or, let's say he does win it. Still, a lot of emotional energy spent and a half a world away of jet-lag to get over. Is he riding a wave of confidence? Or running on emotional fumes. In 2016, after winning (finally) RG, he lost to Sam Querrey in R3 at Wimbledon in an emotionally flat performance. Serena Williams, who I would argue had less in the way of competition, and more in the way of confidence, at the time, couldn't get over the hump at the USO (2015) when she was 2 matches away from the real Grand Slam.

If Novak pulls it all off, then good for him. But I think he risks a lot if he goes to Tokyo.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

If it works out that way. But I don't see how not winning Olympic Gold acts as any kind of a steam-valve. The comparison to MC-RG makes no sense to me. Novak is chasing history, and he knows it. The only reason to go to Tokyo is to get the Golden career slam, or, ideally, the Golden Grand Slam, which only Steffi Graf has. If he goes to Tokyo, he increases the pressure on himself. He would be going for only one reason. Anything short of Olympic Gold will have been a waste of emotional energy.

Or, let's say he does win it. Still, a lot of emotional energy spent and a half a world away of jet-lag to get over. Is he riding a wave of confidence? Or running on emotional fumes. In 2016, after winning (finally) RG, he lost to Sam Querrey in R3 at Wimbledon in an emotionally flat performance. Serena Williams, who I would argue had less in the way of competition, and more in the way of confidence, at the time, couldn't get over the hump at the USO (2015) when she was 2 matches away from the real Grand Slam.

If Novak pulls it all off, then good for him. But I think he risks a lot if he goes to Tokyo.

I don't think travelling long distances is a problem for people with tons of money like Novak. They can go using private jets. They don't have to worry about getting a ticket in sale price and packing to economize etc. Also, the jet lag is a non-issue as there are full four weeks of gap between end of Olympics and start of USO.

Let me put it this way. If he loses at USO, he might have regret that he missed Olympics just for USO and finally did not get anything.

On the other hand, I don't see any serious problems if he tries Olympics and could not succeed.

Forgetting even the CYGS aside, USO is difficult to win generally speaking. There were only 12 slams won by Non-big three members since Fed first won Wimbledon in 2003. Of these 12, 6 came at USO and that too by six different players: Roddick, Stan, Murray, JMDP, Cilic, Thiem. So, it appears that USO is sort of an equalizer and thus puts Novak at a disadvantage. But, I don't think it has anything to do with he participating or not in Olympics.

Serena for sure lost that USO all by herself and the pressure. It is difficult for me to compare the mental strength of Novak and Serena. I don't think we can say for sure that Serena has more mental strength than Novak. After all Novak grew up in war-torn countries and amid lot of hardships. So, it is possible he has more mental strength.

 

[Moxie]

I don't think travelling long distances is a problem for people with tons of money like Novak. They can go using private jets. They don't have to worry about getting a ticket in sale price and packing to economize etc. Also, the jet lag is a non-issue as there are full four weeks of gap between end of Olympics and start of USO.

Let me put it this way. If he loses at USO, he might have regret that he missed Olympics just for USO and finally did not get anything.

On the other hand, I don't see any serious problems if he tries Olympics and could not succeed.

Forgetting even the CYGS aside, USO is difficult to win generally speaking. There were only 12 slams won by Non-big three members since Fed first won Wimbledon in 2003. Of these 12, 6 came at USO and that too by six different players: Roddick, Stan, Murray, JMDP, Cilic, Thiem. So, it appears that USO is sort of an equalizer and thus puts Novak at a disadvantage. But, I don't think it has anything to do with he participating or not in Olympics.

Serena for sure lost that USO all by herself and the pressure. It is difficult for me to compare the mental strength of Novak and Serena. I don't think we can say for sure that Serena has more mental strength than Novak. After all Novak grew up in war-torn countries and amid lot of hardships. So, it is possible he has more mental strength.

Sure Novak's travel can be made to be comfortable, within bounds. But there is also the Olympics bubble to be in, and Novak is proclaimed as one who doesn't like it. You also completely ignore my point as to what happens if he makes the effort and comes up empty-handed, which is possible. This would be a mental blow, which he doesn't need right now. There is one thing that would make the trip to Tokyo worthwhile, and every other outcome that could make it an emotional blow, IMO. If you don't see that as a statistical negative for him, then we disagree. As I said, I hope he goes, because I think it lessens his chances of winning the USO.

It's not that difficult, if you ask me, to compare Serena's mental strength, throughout most of her career, to that of Novak. It's only been since coming back from maternity leave, being older and trying to get the one more Major that has proven more than she can cross. To date. Djokovic, on the other hand, has proven more than once, and including a 2-year walkabout, that he can fall to his own mental demons. If Serena in 2015 could trip 2 matches from the finish line, I'm inclined to think that Novak is likewise susceptible. He looks invulnerable right now, but so did Serena. And with much weaker competition at the time.

 

[don_fabio]

I believe Novak will not go to Olympics given the whole situation in the world and chasing 4th slam in one season. There will be Tsitsipas and Medvedev there and they can beat him in a 3 set match even if Novak comes switched on 100%. It's a fact, he is still ruling bo5, but bo3 is different and he could be upset.

I hope he doesn't go. He doesn't need this mental drain.