They broke up the band...the Fab Four are history

[brokenshoelace]

No disputing Rafa is a better player than any of those guys. That's not the point for me. The critical thing is the bleeding of belief in the dominance of the big 3. We saw it with Roger in 2007, and I'm speculating (and this is just speculation obviously) that going forward after the seismic events this year, the previously also rans are going to go into matches thinking that it can be done, while prior to this year they might have thought it was possible once in a blue moon. Now I suspect they'll believe they have a genuine shot. It's a subtle difference, but it could be huge. For the sake of tennis, I want that to be the case, even if it's against Roger. Most of the times, in the past, these guys have not played their best tennis against the top guys, I just think now there's a greater chance of that happening.

Will their best tennis beat the top guys most of the time? Probably not, there's a reason why Roger, Rafa and Novak are the big 3. Their best is betterer than everyone else's

I agree with you. BS is not buying into the new wave just yet, because he has too much faith in the status quo (which existed for the last several years).
There is not much mystery what happened here. The 3 ceiling punchers were all pretty good players with in roads in the 11-30, they recently entered in a new coaching arrangement (Norman, Chang and Ivanisevic) and they got from them what was missing in their game to take it to the new level.
There were technical changes, like Marin had improved his serve, tactical changes like to play more aggressively for Kei and mental changes.
Nobody in this forum predicted this last winter. They were all going how many slams each the big fabulous 4 will add in 2014 to their resume. 2 were stolen out of nowhere. There could be even more next year. That is why I am not even go to predict anything going forward. I will watch and see.
What happened here will make the youngers to work even harder because they saw it is possible.
The big 4 run its course. They will win more slams but they will have to split them with others. perhaps more hungrier.

To be clear, I don't think there will be a status quo as in, the big 4 will dominate the way they used to. I think it's pretty clear that they won't anymore. However, I do think Nadal and Djokovic are the two best players in the world and will continue to be next year, and Federer is still more consistent than most. I currently have question marks about Murray as he hasn't been the same since the back injury. So yeah, with Murray's form and Roger's age, we won't have a top 4 status quo. But I do expect Nadal and Djokovic to dominate the hard court/clay slams. That's 3 out of 4. I'm not saying there won't be upsets along the way (in fact, I expect them), nor am I saying Nadal and Djokovic will play against each other in the finals all the time. But I do expect at least one of them to be present each time, and end up the winner.

 

[DarthFed]

^ I'd easily take that bet. Nole at USO is a far cry from Nole at AO, very beatable on fast hards and we see it more and more. I think USO is especially wide open going forward. I think Nole will win next AO but I wouldn't put him as favorite for USO.

 

[herios]

Well the guy won 2 majors which is more than any other active player except the big 3. I really can't predict the future but I am not the person to dismiss anybody, even if I don't like a player. There might be new major winners next year but maybe there won't be. I am just saying that for me, the ones who did it more times than others will still be favourites until proven otherwise.

Even this year Rafa was in 2 major finals (won 1), Nole was in 2 major finals (won 1), Federer was in 1 final. Andy has had problems with his confidence and getting back to winning tough matches, but who is to say he won't break out of slump next year? I can't say it, but good for you if you can.

He has more chances to win a slam surely. But while on this slump, the competition has gotten stronger and his return to the top might be tougher than most think. The more he gets lower his draws are getting harder. I am very curious what he will able to do in Shaghai. There will be no luxury to have a top 8 seed and he will have to get through many top 10 players, most likely, to get to a final. And that is where he struggled. The way he will get out of funk probably he will need to score consecutive wins over top 10 players, the way Kei and Marin did this week.

 

[lindseywagners]

Interestingly, after the initial shock..I have a strange sense of acceptance.

Yes, that is what usually happens, I suppose:

"The reality slowly washed over him: it was over - finally, irrevocably, irreversibly, no more tiebreaker reprieves or unexpected, unforced errors from his young opponent - and now he let the feeling have its way with him, for the reality never really hurts, not at first. At first, it's a welcome anesthetic."

http://tennisworld.typepad.com/tennisworld/2008/07/nadal.html

 

[Federberg]

We will see what happens to the new found belief of Nishikori and Cilic post this year's USO. Didn't people predict Wawrinka to rule the ATP and majors after his win in Australia at the beginning of the year?

I think that we will still see Nole, Rafa, Murray, Federer being the big threats in the majors for the next couple of years. The focus and determination to perform well week in and week out is not yet a sure thing for any other players. They will have to prove that they can compete at a highest level for at least a year before I jump on any kind of bandwagon. Sure somebody outside might shine for a week, or two weeks, but if Nole and Rafa especially come back next year with the determination and physically ready to battle, other players will have to match that and it won't be easy. Don't under-estimate these champions that are proven over the years.

I think what Cilic has done is of a different quality to Stan. He WON that title. Because of Rafa's injury I can't say Stan took it. That's not to disparage his achievement. But Cilic has every right to be really confident after that win. He straight setted his opposition from the quarters on. Very impressive!

 

[herios]

We will see what happens to the new found belief of Nishikori and Cilic post this year's USO. Didn't people predict Wawrinka to rule the ATP and majors after his win in Australia at the beginning of the year?

I think that we will still see Nole, Rafa, Murray, Federer being the big threats in the majors for the next couple of years. The focus and determination to perform well week in and week out is not yet a sure thing for any other players. They will have to prove that they can compete at a highest level for at least a year before I jump on any kind of bandwagon. Sure somebody outside might shine for a week, or two weeks, but if Nole and Rafa especially come back next year with the determination and physically ready to battle, other players will have to match that and it won't be easy. Don't under-estimate these champions that are proven over the years.

I think what Cilic has done is of a different quality to Stan. He WON that title. Because of Rafa's injury I can't say Stan took it. That's not to disparage his achievement. But Cilic has every right to be really confident after that win. He straight setted his opposition from the quarters on. Very impressive!

I think so too. His serve makes a lot of a difference. They explained what is different in his technique. His toss has changed. And he said, as soon as he tired it, he could feel the difference right away. That serve will be there to stay. The only thing will be what his rate of conversion on the first serve will be in his matches. But also he has a reliable kick second serve. Even Nishikori, as good a returner he is, had hard time with it. He will be a dangerous fella going forward.

 

[Federberg]

^I think a less tired Nishikori might have done better on the return. Still I'm not sure he would have been able to live with Cilic from the back of the court, and I'm not sure the dynamic would have changed much on Kei's serve. Boy the guy hits really hard and flat now. He always used to hit a safer ball. But he's done away with that too. I'm really eager to see him match up with Rafa now. That's going to be fascinating. He always gave Novak a tough time in the past anyway, but not so sure how he used to match up to Nadal

 

[DarthFed]

Stan's run was also remarkable as he beat the 3 time defending champion and was schooling Rafa even before he got hurt. I wouldn't short change him. But Cilic was playing beast tennis here, no doubt about it. It was very Marat Safin 2000 USO-like. The only difference is he badly beat the legend in the semi (Federer) instead of the final (Marat took apart Pete). So down the road it might not be thought of in a similar light as Safin's first GS win but it really should as it was mighty impressive. I will never warm up to the guy again for one obvious reason but it was incredible tennis. Amongst the best couple matches we've seen in a very long time.

 

[herios]

. I'm really eager to see him match up with Rafa now. That's going to be fascinating. He always gave Novak a tough time in the past anyway, but not so sure how he used to match up to Nadal

Cilic 1.0 had a very convincing win once over Rafa, in Beijing 2009: 6-1, 6-3.
In that event he defeated 2 top 8 players, Davydenko in quarters, Rafa in SF both in straight sets and he fell in the final to Nole 2-6, 6-7.

 

[Federberg]

^definitely don't mean to short change him. I'm just pointing out the difference in confidence you get from KNOWING you won it. Instead of questioning IF you would have been able to close it out with a fit Rafa. Certainly Stan's performances since then haven't made me think he sees himself as one of the big beasts yet

 

[Luxilon Borg]

Interestingly, after the initial shock..I have a strange sense of acceptance.

Yes, that is what usually happens, I suppose:

"The reality slowly washed over him: it was over - finally, irrevocably, irreversibly, no more tiebreaker reprieves or unexpected, unforced errors from his young opponent - and now he let the feeling have its way with him, for the reality never really hurts, not at first. At first, it's a welcome anesthetic."

http://tennisworld.typepad.com/tennisworld/2008/07/nadal.html

That about sums it up! Thanks for that!

 

[Luxilon Borg]

^I think a less tired Nishikori might have done better on the return. Still I'm not sure he would have been able to live with Cilic from the back of the court, and I'm not sure the dynamic would have changed much on Kei's serve. Boy the guy hits really hard and flat now. He always used to hit a safer ball. But he's done away with that too. I'm really eager to see him match up with Rafa now. That's going to be fascinating. He always gave Novak a tough time in the past anyway, but not so sure how he used to match up to Nadal

Nishikori's biggest tactical error, and Federer too, was overplaying the Cilic backhand.

 

[DarthFed]

I doubt Stan viewed it as a tainted victory really. He earned it and he beat the 3 time defending champ, a player way better on that surface than Rafa is. Stan has been up and down but considering Kei took out Nole easily it wasn't that awful of a loss in the QF for him this year. The only real terrible event was the French and the draw did him no favors there.

 

[Federberg]

^Maybe. I know from personal experience, beating someone who's hampered by injury vs crushing the opposition is a different feeling. This is nothing about the validity of the win. I'm just talking about the confidence boost you get

 

[Luxilon Borg]

What makes Cilic somewhat comparable to Stan is their overall record against the big four:

Cilic:

Vs:

Murray: 2-9

Federer: 1-5

Nadal: 1-2

Djokovic: 0-10


Wawrinka:

Vs:

Murray: 6-8

Federer: 2-13

Nadal: 1-12

Djokovic: 3-17

The numbers speak for them selves.

One number that stands out at me is that Cilic only played Nadal 3 times, as
opposed to Stan's 13.

 

[Federberg]

^The thing that sticks out the most for me is the sheer number of times Stan has competed against them. I guess that's reflected in the ranking. Stan has generally gone deep enough to challenge these guys. It's going to be interesting going forward!

 

[brokenshoelace]

Cilic is a much, MUCH more problematic match-up for Nadal than Stan.

 

[TennisFanatic7]

The big four have disbanded by the looks of it, though you wouldn't bet against them being the four "most likely" guys next year. We won't see them regain the stranglehold though, that's for sure.

I don't know if we'll see this sort of "looting" continue. These weeks were a big window of opportunity for the lesser players, with Rafa out injured, Djokovic on a bit of a come down from winning Wimbledon and potentially distracted by family matters, Murray with a lower rank and poor form. Federer was the only one playing pretty much as well as he really can at the moment, and he's played very well, but he's still 33 years old.

The difference that has occured here is that if you were to reach the quarter-finals of a slam in the past few years, you would encounter one road block in the form of a big four player and maybe you can beat him. If you do, then the other three are waiting in the semi finals ready to gobble you up. When Djokovic, Nadal, Federer and Murray were ranked 1-4, you were almost certainly going to face one of them by the last eight, anyway.

In this US Open, only Nole and Roger were seeded in the top four. I wonder if anybody has a statistic to hand regarding when was the last major without at least three of the "Big 4" in the top four seedings? Anyway, this meant that after Murray was drawn into the same quarter as Djokovic, there were two quarters of the draw without a big four member. Who came out of these two "empty" quarters? Kei Nishikori and Marin Cilic.

I think this tournament is a sign of things to come, but it won't come yet. Djokovic has all the tools required to become the dominant force on tour, especially on hard courts, from this point onwards, and Rafa is far from finished - we've seen fearless nobodies wipe him out at Wimbledon but at the other slams he hasn't had poor losses and the only near-top player to break through past him was Stan in Australia when Nadal was weakened by injury (not saying Wawrinka wouldn't have won that one anyway but we don't know). Murray can only really get better next year - probably - and Roger is still playing very well.

There's no doubting though that the pretenders will no longer feel as if there's a glass ceiling there and that will prevent the "big 4" from being able to win matches just by hanging in there and waiting for the pretender to doubt themselves and hand over the momentum. There are very interesting times ahead but my personal belief is that the "big four" will hoover up three of the slams next year if not all of them.

 

[Luxilon Borg]

The big four have disbanded by the looks of it, though you wouldn't bet against them being the four "most likely" guys next year. We won't see them regain the stranglehold though, that's for sure.

I don't know if we'll see this sort of "looting" continue. These weeks were a big window of opportunity for the lesser players, with Rafa out injured, Djokovic on a bit of a come down from winning Wimbledon and potentially distracted by family matters, Murray with a lower rank and poor form. Federer was the only one playing pretty much as well as he really can at the moment, and he's played very well, but he's still 33 years old.

The difference that has occured here is that if you were to reach the quarter-finals of a slam in the past few years, you would encounter one road block in the form of a big four player and maybe you can beat him. If you do, then the other three are waiting in the semi finals ready to gobble you up. When Djokovic, Nadal, Federer and Murray were ranked 1-4, you were almost certainly going to face one of them by the last eight, anyway.

In this US Open, only Nole and Roger were seeded in the top four. I wonder if anybody has a statistic to hand regarding when was the last major without at least three of the "Big 4" in the top four seedings? Anyway, this meant that after Murray was drawn into the same quarter as Djokovic, there were two quarters of the draw without a big four member. Who came out of these two "empty" quarters? Kei Nishikori and Marin Cilic.

I think this tournament is a sign of things to come, but it won't come yet. Djokovic has all the tools required to become the dominant force on tour, especially on hard courts, from this point onwards, and Rafa is far from finished - we've seen fearless nobodies wipe him out at Wimbledon but at the other slams he hasn't had poor losses and the only near-top player to break through past him was Stan in Australia when Nadal was weakened by injury (not saying Wawrinka wouldn't have won that one anyway but we don't know). Murray can only really get better next year - probably - and Roger is still playing very well.

There's no doubting though that the pretenders will no longer feel as if there's a glass ceiling there and that will prevent the "big 4" from being able to win matches just by hanging in there and waiting for the pretender to doubt themselves and hand over the momentum. There are very interesting times ahead but my personal belief is that the "big four" will hoover up three of the slams next year if not all of them.

Great read. Great post.

 

[Fiero425]

Officially due to an outsider winning a major, the rest of the ATP is no longer GUTLESS! Thank GAWD!! Keep it going!