They broke up the band...the Fab Four are history

[Luxilon Borg]

I suspect there might be a reunion tour next year at some point...a last hurray maybe...

Will they play the Garden?:clap

Maybe the O2 Arena in London?

Yes!!! And they can take the ferry there like Murray did!

Any more albums? I'm waiting for the Plastic Rafa Band...!

 

[brokenshoelace]

I just don't want Rafa to have a easy path next year though. Djokovic has been pretty inconsistent this year and his mind isn't on tennis right now

Rafa won't have easy path. First of all Novak will be back with body and mind in 2015. Also,
there are too many big hitters who can blow rafa away these days, at least in quick courts
such as Wimby and USO.

Nadal isn't getting blown away by a big hitter at the US Open. I actually think, based on the conditions, that Nadal is probably a big hitter's worst nightmare on a court like that, especially with the way his forehand operated in his last 3 appearances in New York. It took a Jesus-reincarnated Djokovic to beat him in 2011. Other than that, he's really looked pretty unstoppable. Now, obviously, we're talking about something that may or may not happen a year from now, and a lot depends on Nadal's form as well as that of other players. But on outdoor hards, especially faster outdoor hards, ironically enough, Nadal's forehand is actually tough to handle for big hitters. Cilic though, is interesting to me because he moves so well for his size so I'd be very interested in seeing that match-up.

Wimbledon is a different story. It's clearly become Nadal's most vulnerable slam.

 

[Federberg]

^I would agree with you in a final BS. The problem is... if what we've seen this year holds going forward. There are going to be lions and tigers in the draw from now on. That makes it less certain that any of the big 3 can get to do their stuff in a final. Imagine Rafa having to navigate a draw with Krygios, Cilic and Wawrinka. One after the other.. yes he can and should take them, but if the draw gets tougher like it looks like it's going to... wow!

 

[Kieran]

The extra week to prepare for Wimbledon will help Rafa. There's a reason why the Channel Slam is prohibitively rough. He gets an extra week to frolic in the surf and finally play a warm up event to his satisfaction. Last few seasons he's been showing the effects of the grind, on clay...

 

[the AntiPusher]

I just don't want Rafa to have a easy path next year though. Djokovic has been pretty inconsistent this year and his mind isn't on tennis right now

Rafa won't have easy path. First of all Novak will be back with body and mind in 2015. Also,
there are too many big hitters who can blow rafa away these days, at least in quick courts
such as Wimby and USO.

Nadal isn't getting blown away by a big hitter at the US Open. I actually think, based on the conditions, that Nadal is probably a big hitter's worst nightmare on a court like that, especially with the way his forehand operated in his last 3 appearances in New York. It took a Jesus-reincarnated Djokovic to beat him in 2011. Other than that, he's really looked pretty unstoppable. Now, obviously, we're talking about something that may or may not happen a year from now, and a lot depends on Nadal's form as well as that of other players. But on outdoor hards, especially faster outdoor hards, ironically enough, Nadal's forehand is actually tough to handle for big hitters. Cilic though, is interesting to me because he moves so well for his size so I'd be very interested in seeing that match-up.

Wimbledon is a different story. It's clearly become Nadal's most vulnerable slam.

Preach:clap

 

[DarthFed]

I just don't want Rafa to have a easy path next year though. Djokovic has been pretty inconsistent this year and his mind isn't on tennis right now

Rafa won't have easy path. First of all Novak will be back with body and mind in 2015. Also,
there are too many big hitters who can blow rafa away these days, at least in quick courts
such as Wimby and USO.

Nadal isn't getting blown away by a big hitter at the US Open. I actually think, based on the conditions, that Nadal is probably a big hitter's worst nightmare on a court like that, especially with the way his forehand operated in his last 3 appearances in New York. It took a Jesus-reincarnated Djokovic to beat him in 2011. Other than that, he's really looked pretty unstoppable. Now, obviously, we're talking about something that may or may not happen a year from now, and a lot depends on Nadal's form as well as that of other players. But on outdoor hards, especially faster outdoor hards, ironically enough, Nadal's forehand is actually tough to handle for big hitters. Cilic though, is interesting to me because he moves so well for his size so I'd be very interested in seeing that match-up.

Wimbledon is a different story. It's clearly become Nadal's most vulnerable slam.

Not to say he would lose to a big hitter or not be an overwhelming favorite but when is the last time he even faced a decent big hitter at the USO?

 

[brokenshoelace]

^I would agree with you in a final BS. The problem is... if what we've seen this year holds going forward. There are going to be lions and tigers in the draw from now on. That makes it less certain that any of the big 3 can get to do their stuff in a final. Imagine Rafa having to navigate a draw with Krygios, Cilic and Wawrinka. One after the other.. yes he can and should take them, but if the draw gets tougher like it looks like it's going to... wow!

In many ways, I hope so, since the less routine the path, the better. But, I'll say this: Nadal and Djokovic will be appearing in plenty of finals next year. I honestly don't expect the landscape to be that different. We tend to put too much stock in isolated results. Not saying what Nishikori and Cilic did isn't remarkable (of course it is), but I don't believe it'll lead to some more telling general picture narrative.

 

[Federberg]

^It's all speculation of course.. and I'm no fan of woulda coulda shoulda.. but we've seen this year what a zoned Nishikori can do against Rafa. And on his best surface no less. But it's not actually specific matchups I was making a point about. For me.. this year has done tremendous damage to the dominance of the Big 3. We saw it in 2007 with Roger. As soon as other players see that success is possible, they'll take bigger and bigger cuts at the established players. That doesn't mean it's over by a long shot. What it does mean is that we should no longer take it forgranted that we'll see Big 3 finals. But if we were to put money on what the most likely finals will be next year.. at any major or masters series.. it's clearly Rafa vs Novak. No doubt about it.

Interestingly, this makes Rogers ranking at the end of the year very interesting. If he sneaks in at no 2, then that could at least at the start of next year.. prevent Rafa vs Novak finals.

 

[brokenshoelace]

I just don't want Rafa to have a easy path next year though. Djokovic has been pretty inconsistent this year and his mind isn't on tennis right now

Rafa won't have easy path. First of all Novak will be back with body and mind in 2015. Also,
there are too many big hitters who can blow rafa away these days, at least in quick courts
such as Wimby and USO.

Nadal isn't getting blown away by a big hitter at the US Open. I actually think, based on the conditions, that Nadal is probably a big hitter's worst nightmare on a court like that, especially with the way his forehand operated in his last 3 appearances in New York. It took a Jesus-reincarnated Djokovic to beat him in 2011. Other than that, he's really looked pretty unstoppable. Now, obviously, we're talking about something that may or may not happen a year from now, and a lot depends on Nadal's form as well as that of other players. But on outdoor hards, especially faster outdoor hards, ironically enough, Nadal's forehand is actually tough to handle for big hitters. Cilic though, is interesting to me because he moves so well for his size so I'd be very interested in seeing that match-up.

Wimbledon is a different story. It's clearly become Nadal's most vulnerable slam.

Not to say he would lose to a big hitter or not be an overwhelming favorite but when is the last time he even faced a decent big hitter at the USO?

I remember him facing quite a few in the run-up to the US Open last year (Janowicz, Raonic, Berdych, Isner), but I don't think he played one at the US Open itself. Now granted, Nadal was playing some of his best ever hard court tennis but honestly, I think on courts where Nadal's forehand has a lot of action, big hitters will struggle as he'll move them around. This is different on courts that are more "dead" during the fall hard court season (hence Del Potro smacking him around in Shanghai).

 

[Federberg]

I would be really intrigued to see how Rafa does against Cilic v2.0. Big serving, big hitting, great movement. This is a different beast. The closest we've had to that is Del Potro, you might possibly add Wawrinka in there, but it's all about the belief. And for me, that's what is possibly changing. A lot of these guys had already bent over before a ball had been hit in anger before..

 

[brokenshoelace]

Plus "big hitters" is an abstract concept. When assessing the chances of Nadal falling to one at the US Open, we need to actually name them in order to formulate an informed opinion: Off the top of my head, I can think of Berdych, Tsonga, Cilic, Del Potro, Isner, Raonic, Janowicz (if he gets his act together), Gulbis (ditto)... I might be missing a few (I guess you can add Wawrinka).

Among the above, I think Raonic would struggle mightily (he can't serve Nadal off the court. It's not grass. Eventually Nadal will get a read and kill him in the rallies by exposing his movement, which is what happened in their previous meeting), Berdych is a foregone conclusion, Isner won't serve him off the court (and that would be his only chance), Tsonga isn't consistent enough to do it over 5 sets, neither are Gulbis or Janowicz, though Gulbis can be a nightmare match-up for Nadal if he plays well.

This leaves us with Cilic, Del Potro and Wawrinka. I think Del Potro is a threat to Nadal anywhere but slow hards, but he's a huge question mark and hasn't played consistently well or stayed injury free in a while. I maintain that Nadal is a nightmare match-up for Wawrinka, despite what the AO final and Nadal's back have to say, and there's a reason the H2H is what it is. Cilic remains the most interesting one.

 

[Federberg]

^Agreed the big threats are Cilic, Del Potro and Wawrinka. Possibly Gulbis has the moxie to pull it off. The key point is that the increasing belief these guys will have going forward will make them a threat. I do agree with your essential point that if you are a big hitter with suspect movement then that probably doesn't cut it against Rafa. These 3 have sufficiently good movement. But the proof is in the doing!

 

[brokenshoelace]

^^ I'm still adamant that an in form Nadal would routinely dispatch Wawrinka for reasons I've mentioned before, notably Stan's reliance on standing far back to take big cuts at the ball, allowing Nadal to move him around... But I would agree with the others.

 

[brokenshoelace]

The thing that gets me about this idea that Wawrinka is suddenly a huge threat to Nadal is this:

A year ago, nobody would have given Stan a chance. So what changed? If it's the fact that Wawrinka won a slam, matured, and has more belief, then sure. I'm sure that will raise his chances somewhat (just how much is debatable, since he still has a lot to overcome given who his opponent is and the nature of that match-up). If it's because he beat Nadal in the final and it would give him even more belief, then again, fair enough.

But the argument often raised is THE WAY Wawrinka beat Nadal. To me, that's the problem. Wawrinka had an all-time best performance. As in, he probably played the best tennis match of his career. When ANY top 15 player plays the best match of his career, he is going to win. Period. No questions asked.

You really think if Berdych has his best ever performance against Nadal, he wouldn't win? These players aren't separated by THAT much.

My point? You're not going to have an all-time great performance every day. And Wawrinka's 11 previous meetings with Nadal proved that anything less wasn't even enough to win a set. That's pretty important right there, and highlights how difficult the match-up is for Stan.

If I show you highlights of Tsonga's win over Nadal at the 2008 AO and you weren't aware of what happened afterwards, you'd think Nadal would never beat Tsonga in a match, ever. Of course, reality is different because Tsonga is not going to play like that every time, and anything less won't cut it.

There's a reason the really great players are who they are: They are able to beat each other without playing that great. Think of it this way: How many times have we vociferously argued about how say, Federer played so poorly because Nadal didn't even need to play his best to beat him. Or why Djokovic played poorly because Murray didn't have to do much to beat him, etc...

But do you ever say, Nishikori didn't have to play his best to beat Djokovic? Or Tsonga didn't have to play his best to beat Federer? No. Because most times, for these "lesser" players to have a chance against the truly great players, they HAVE to play their best, at least in majors. To me, this is actually not a good proposition: "play your best to have a chance." That doesn't sound like the odds are in your favor.

The point is, these are extremely "situational" events that don't happen often. As off now, Wawrinka's level at the AO is not the rule. Because he hadn't produced it consistently before or since. What he has done, is play very well for the better part of his career, and yet still came up short against these guys. That's far more telling to me.















































...and then there's the fact that Nadal injured his back in that match :snigger

 

[Federberg]

No disputing Rafa is a better player than any of those guys. That's not the point for me. The critical thing is the bleeding of belief in the dominance of the big 3. We saw it with Roger in 2007, and I'm speculating (and this is just speculation obviously) that going forward after the seismic events this year, the previously also rans are going to go into matches thinking that it can be done, while prior to this year they might have thought it was possible once in a blue moon. Now I suspect they'll believe they have a genuine shot. It's a subtle difference, but it could be huge. For the sake of tennis, I want that to be the case, even if it's against Roger. Most of the times, in the past, these guys have not played their best tennis against the top guys, I just think now there's a greater chance of that happening.

Will their best tennis beat the top guys most of the time? Probably not, there's a reason why Roger, Rafa and Novak are the big 3. Their best is betterer than everyone else's

 

[Luxilon Borg]

No disputing Rafa is a better player than any of those guys. That's not the point for me. The critical thing is the bleeding of belief in the dominance of the big 3. We saw it with Roger in 2007, and I'm speculating (and this is just speculation obviously) that going forward after the seismic events this year, the previously also rans are going to go into matches thinking that it can be done, while prior to this year they might have thought it was possible once in a blue moon. Now I suspect they'll believe they have a genuine shot. It's a subtle difference, but it could be huge. For the sake of tennis, I want that to be the case, even if it's against Roger. Most of the times, in the past, these guys have not played their best tennis against the top guys, I just think now there's a greater chance of that happening.

Will their best tennis beat the top guys most of the time? Probably not, there's a reason why Roger, Rafa and Novak are the big 3. Their best is betterer than everyone else's

As all top, super accomplished top players approach 30, it is impossible to maintain that singular focus. When they have an incredible legacy under their belts ..Fed, Nadal, etc, they are subconscious less disappointed when they lose and quite frankly it gets harder to sum up that win at all costs effort.

Only one player I know was as pissed about losing at 35 as at 25, and that is Connors.

 

[herios]

No disputing Rafa is a better player than any of those guys. That's not the point for me. The critical thing is the bleeding of belief in the dominance of the big 3. We saw it with Roger in 2007, and I'm speculating (and this is just speculation obviously) that going forward after the seismic events this year, the previously also rans are going to go into matches thinking that it can be done, while prior to this year they might have thought it was possible once in a blue moon. Now I suspect they'll believe they have a genuine shot. It's a subtle difference, but it could be huge. For the sake of tennis, I want that to be the case, even if it's against Roger. Most of the times, in the past, these guys have not played their best tennis against the top guys, I just think now there's a greater chance of that happening.

Will their best tennis beat the top guys most of the time? Probably not, there's a reason why Roger, Rafa and Novak are the big 3. Their best is betterer than everyone else's

I agree with you. BS is not buying into the new wave just yet, because he has too much faith in the status quo (which existed for the last several years).
There is not much mystery what happened here. The 3 ceiling punchers were all pretty good players with in roads in the 11-30, they recently entered in a new coaching arrangement (Norman, Chang and Ivanisevic) and they got from them what was missing in their game to take it to the new level.
There were technical changes, like Marin had improved his serve, tactical changes like to play more aggressively for Kei and mental changes.
Nobody in this forum predicted this last winter. They were all going how many slams each the big fabulous 4 will add in 2014 to their resume. 2 were stolen out of nowhere. There could be even more next year. That is why I am not even go to predict anything going forward. I will watch and see.
What happened here will make the youngers to work even harder because they saw it is possible.
The big 4 run its course. They will win more slams but they will have to split them with others. perhaps more hungrier.

 

[Billie]

We will see what happens to the new found belief of Nishikori and Cilic post this year's USO. Didn't people predict Wawrinka to rule the ATP and majors after his win in Australia at the beginning of the year?

I think that we will still see Nole, Rafa, Murray, Federer being the big threats in the majors for the next couple of years. The focus and determination to perform well week in and week out is not yet a sure thing for any other players. They will have to prove that they can compete at a highest level for at least a year before I jump on any kind of bandwagon. Sure somebody outside might shine for a week, or two weeks, but if Nole and Rafa especially come back next year with the determination and physically ready to battle, other players will have to match that and it won't be easy. Don't under-estimate these champions that are proven over the years.

 

[herios]

We will see what happens to the new found belief of Nishikori and Cilic post this year's USO. Didn't people predict Wawrinka to rule the ATP and majors after his win in Australia at the beginning of the year?

I think that we will still see Nole, Rafa, Murray, Federer being the big threats in the majors for the next couple of years. The focus and determination to perform well week in and week out is not yet a sure thing for any other players. They will have to prove that they can compete at a highest level for at least a year before I jump on any kind of bandwagon. Sure somebody outside might shine for a week, or two weeks, but if Nole and Rafa especially come back next year with the determination and physically ready to battle, other players will have to match that and it won't be easy. Don't under-estimate these champions that are proven over the years.

Murray a threat? At what? To break back into the top 8?:snigger

If Tsonga wins La Moselle in 2 weeks (he won it 3 times before), Murray drops out of the top 10!

 

[Billie]

Well the guy won 2 majors which is more than any other active player except the big 3. I really can't predict the future but I am not the person to dismiss anybody, even if I don't like a player. There might be new major winners next year but maybe there won't be. I am just saying that for me, the ones who did it more times than others will still be favourites until proven otherwise.

Even this year Rafa was in 2 major finals (won 1), Nole was in 2 major finals (won 1), Federer was in 1 final. Andy has had problems with his confidence and getting back to winning tough matches, but who is to say he won't break out of slump next year? I can't say it, but good for you if you can.