The real story of Fedal H2H

DarthFed

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It isn't a myth that Nadal had Roger's number from the beginning. Re-watch that Miami '04 match. All of the issues are right there. Read it from that fellow that loves Fed so much that he wrote a book about it. (I've cited it other places here. He's a Fed fanatic.) The matches we're talking about went 5 sets, so Roger could have won them, but he didn't. I get tired of your inability to recognize that Rafa was 22 and at a peak in his career. Roger was out-played by a peaking player. End of story.

What part of the stats did you have problems comprehending? How does going 2-5 from 2004-2007 (Roger's strong years) constitute owning someone everywhere from the beginning?
 
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Moxie

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What part of the stats did you have problems comprehending? How does going 2-5 from 2004-2007 (Roger's strong years) constitute owning someone everywhere from the beginning?
I'm having a problem with your stats, tbh. '04-'07 they went 8-6 in favor of Nadal. The only time that Roger has even been close to being ahead, as you well know, is when they were 1-1 in '05. What am I missing with this "2-5?"
 

Moxie

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What part of the stats did you have problems comprehending? How does going 2-5 from 2004-2007 (Roger's strong years) constitute owning someone everywhere from the beginning?

I see what you did there. "Everywhere" I never said.
 

GameSetAndMath

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Let me repeat. This is not a GOAT thread. We are not talking about the records and accomplishments of the two players and comparing those records.


This is about how to directly compare two players. That is why we limit the data set to only those tourneys in which both entered. The purpose of the article is to argue that T2T is more meaningful than H2H (as the main purpose of playing tennis is to win tourneys if you can and to go deep if you cannot; it is never about defeating a single player) and to provide facts that Fed is ahead in T2T while he is lagging in H2H.
 

Nadalfan2013

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H2h isn't real... Clay isn't a surface... Topspin is moonball... 2008 Federer is old... What next from Fedfans? :facepalm: :banghead: :cuckoo: :help:
 

Moxie

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Let me repeat. This is not a GOAT thread. We are not talking about the records and accomplishments of the two players and comparing those records.


This is about how to directly compare two players. That is why we limit the data set to only those tourneys in which both entered. The purpose of the article is to argue that T2T is more meaningful than H2H (as the main purpose of playing tennis is to win tourneys if you can and to go deep if you cannot; it is never about defeating a single player) and to provide facts that Fed is ahead in T2T while he is lagging in H2H.
OK, then I'll just say what I said before, which apparently you missed:
Firstly, you have to say the analysis you cite is rather an apologia for the H2H, and targeted defense. What it doesn't do is make any fair points in favor of Nadal. Such as: It doesn't extract Outdoor HCs, which Nadal led by a lot until 2017, when Roger won 4 at a trot. Even with that, Rafa still leads 8-6. It also talks about Rafa failing to "make the date," which happened a lot on non-clay surfaces when Rafa was young and still finding his range off of clay. But there are significant moments of Roger not "making the date," especially at the USO. I'd count 3 significant ones since 2010, and there's a strong argument that Rafa would have won them all, or at least 2.

It makes the point that Roger won 14/14 tournaments when he played Rafa, and Rafa "only" won 17/23. But he still won more of them. I also find it very questionable the OP's (of the article from the other site) point that there was "no overlaps" of their peak years. I know we argue about 2008, etc. but that seems ridiculous to say at this point.
 

GameSetAndMath

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You are getting confused by other irrelevant details from the various posts in that forum. I could have easily stated the case in a clear and concise manner, expounding the virtues of T2T and considering total T2T without separating into various surfaces, various periods etc.
The only reason I did not do that was I did not want to indulge in plagiarism when someone else did the actual work.
 

GameSetAndMath

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What the hell have you been smoking?

Seriously, that post is interesting as it calculate the numbers we speculated a lot for years. Not exactly news, as Federer leads the major count, the weeks as number #1, and the overall titles won, so one should expect he won more tournaments they both played.

.

Perhaps you missed the main point of the article. We are not doing GOAT arguments here. We are doing direct comparison of two players.
Here we are throwing away all of the achievements of Federer in any tourney that Ralph did not play in. Similarly, we are throwing away all of the achievements of Ralph in any tourney that Roger did not play in (Obviously those achievements also count in GOAT arguments).

When you want to directly compare two players to figure who is better, a simple and direct measure is to focus on just the tournaments that both played in and see how many are won by each of them. As winning is not the only thing (it is not possible to win every tourney that you play in), then one can ask as to in how many tourneys Roger went deeper than Rafa. This is to figure out who is a better player in a direct comparison. This makes more sense than H2H (as H2H is dependent on various factors over which we perennially debate) as the main purpose of playing tennis is to win tourneys if you can or else go as deep as possible.
 

Moxie

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Roger wasn't old in 2008, but he did suck that year. Proof was in the results.
This is what is a main fallacy in your argument. Because Roger didn't beat Rafa, he "sucked." Couldn't possibly be that Rafa was just better. 2008. Roger was pretty damned good in 2007 and really good in 2009. Just sucked in 2008. If you'd just give over to the notion that Rafa was just better in that period that you hate, tennis history would make more sense. No more mono-gate. Nadal was great in 2010, and then Djokovic happened. I can complain that later 2011 was about Novak being in Rafa's head, too, but what happened is what happened.
 

The_Grand_Slam

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This is what is a main fallacy in your argument. Because Roger didn't beat Rafa, he "sucked." Couldn't possibly be that Rafa was just better. 2008. Roger was pretty damned good in 2007 and really good in 2009. Just sucked in 2008. If you'd just give over to the notion that Rafa was just better in that period that you hate, tennis history would make more sense. No more mono-gate. Nadal was great in 2010, and then Djokovic happened. I can complain that later 2011 was about Novak being in Rafa's head, too, but what happened is what happened.

Federer was terrible against the field also in 2008
 

Moxie

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Federer was terrible against the field also in 2008
Mediocre by his standards, but not terrible. Is the notion that he should never lose? What's the takeaway? Mono?
 

The_Grand_Slam

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Mediocre by his standards, but not terrible. What's the takeaway? Mono?

Not just mediocre but terrible.He was losing to guys who had never won matches against him in any other year.He struggled in slams as well but difficult to lose in B05

lack of efficient training blocks(affected by mono) .
 

Moxie

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Not just mediocre but terrible.He was losing to guys who had never won matches against him in any other year.He struggled in slams as well but difficult to lose in B05

lack of efficient training blocks(affected by mono) .
The early part of the year makes sense, when he had mono. But he began to pick up. He lost to Nadal in two tight sets in MC and 3 tight ones in Hamburg (then clay.) There was no reason to think that, at that point, he wasn't recovered from his mono and his lack of practice. Nadal blew him out of the water at RG, but basically because Nadal was having an amazing clay season. Fed won Halle and lost W to Nadal in 5. Again...no shame there. Look at Nadal's form, and how close they were the year before. Don't forget he won the USO, and some later losses were to Murray. It seems that the mono was a light case, and effected him in the early part of the season, but he seemed recovered enough to fight Nadal well in a couple of matches on clay. And he won a Major by Sept. The rest is just that sometimes you lose (like to Karlovic in 2 TBs in Cincy.) The only notion that he had a "horrible" year is that he lost so badly to Nadal at RG, when Nadal was having an amazing year on clay; at Wimbledon...well, that was coming. He didn't win Olympic Gold in singles, but he did win the USO. And the rest of the year wasn't unreasonable, if you're not a feddie. It's only a Fed-fan notion that it was a terrible year, and that it was because of mono. Look at the results, by tournament. If you think that his year was about mono and Nadal being in his head, you're buying into an internet trope and not actually looking at the results.
 

GameSetAndMath

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And I've argued why the thesis you cite is Federer-centric. You can see how it's slanted and hugely agenda-driven, right?

So, let me get this straight. Is it your contention that In order to favor Federer the article unreasonably supposes that the purpose of entering a tennis tourney is to win it? :scratch:
 
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Moxie

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So, let me get this straight. Is it your contention that In order to favor Federer the article unreasonably supposes that the purpose of entering a tennis tourney is to win it? :scratch:
No. What I'm saying is that the article makes a huge effort to demonstrate Federer's winning percentage in tournaments that they have both played in, which is rather funny, because you Feddies have tried to make the case that Roger's career isn't dependent only on his career vis a vis Nadal. While, at the same time, it doesn't take the time to say that, of the "dates" Rafa didn't make, he was very young and not yet fully formed on other surfaces. Or that the "dates" that Roger didn't make were more significant. It understates the case that Nadal has won more tournaments that both played in. Etc. You haven't addressed any points I've made in contra. You like this article and the case that it makes. You are refusing any specifics against.
 

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Well, speak to @mrzz about the clay losses and his theory. He has also wondered if Roger had won the Rome '06 final then things might have been different. I have argued that they wouldn't have.

Answering to both you and @DarthFed.

First,about 06.... I guess you guys are underestimating how one match, one set, and sometimes one point can affect the way you play in the next matches, sets and points. I will never say that surely the H2H would be turned upside down -- we know there are technical reasons playing here, but could it have influenced the outcome of a few other tight matches? Surely it could. Just like that drop shot to go up a double break in the first set of the 2011 RG final (out by half an inch). Can you imagine the giant wave of confidence a guy would be riding after beating Djokovic in the semi and beating Nadal 6x2 in the first set of the final? Again, Nadal does not gives matches away, but everyone who ever picked a racket knows that one point sometimes change completely the way you play for the next hour. So, back to 06, maybe that win would have prevented the change in approach in 2008... he could even have not made the final, or just not get routed that way. It all would impact in the W final. Anyway, Federer was clearly bellow his level from previous years in 2008. @El Dude has shown his stats against the field a thousand times. This does means he was a completely sucker (he was #2 in the world by year end), but he was a tad bellow his peak, Nadal was a tad above his previous years. Those little differences have a huge effect on tennis.

And I maintain the fact that the Nadal losses made Federer a better player (even if in a specific sense). Yes, the "process" going on led to the 2008/2009 bad losses against Nadal. But this is not what I am talking about. What I am saying is that I am sure it helped him to go through all the mediocre years from 2009 on (by his standards, even if with some occasional peaks) and just not retire. When he got to that phase in his career where great champions start to lose (and most cannot handle it), he already knew the feeling, he already knew how to look for answers. From a stubborn player who played without a coach and always tried to beat his adversaries playing their strengths rather than their weaknesses, from the tactically obedient guy we have from 2012/2013 on, the change is enormous. This change is not debatable. The cause of it, ok, is debatable, and my take is that great part of it is named Nadal.

Perhaps you missed the main point of the article

No, I got that. I just probably did not express my self decently. My point that all those numbers I cited where symptoms that the T2T would be in favor of Federer. And, yes, I agree that the T2T is more "complete" than the H2H.

@Moxie, maybe the (obvious) fact that the guy who compiled the stats is a Federer fan made the basic finding look more biased than it actually is. Imagine if (and this is a "neutral" what if) the guy just cut the crap and decided to post only the basic finding. Both entered X tournaments together, Federer won Y%, Nadal Z%, Y>Z. That's it, that's the simplicity that GSM is trying to make reference to.

The problem is not the stat, it is the conclusion you take out of it. Y>Z is clear, but John > Jake is a whole other story. Tennis players are not numbers. The first conclusion I take with some confidence is that Federer is a more complete player than Nadal -- because all those tournaments where played in different surfaces, against different players across different generations. Of course we can argue if conditions were different, the numbers would be different. If tennis were only played on clay (or grass) there would be no discussion whatsoever.
 

DarthFed

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This is what is a main fallacy in your argument. Because Roger didn't beat Rafa, he "sucked." Couldn't possibly be that Rafa was just better. 2008. Roger was pretty damned good in 2007 and really good in 2009. Just sucked in 2008. If you'd just give over to the notion that Rafa was just better in that period that you hate, tennis history would make more sense. No more mono-gate. Nadal was great in 2010, and then Djokovic happened. I can complain that later 2011 was about Novak being in Rafa's head, too, but what happened is what happened.

He sucked against everyone that year. He got blown out at AO by 20 year old Djokovic. Lost badly at Dubai to Murray. Lost 2 and 3 to Fish at IW. Lost to Roddick at Miami. Lost to Stepanek at Rome. Lost to Rafa at Wimbledon after winning 65 straight on grass. Lost to Simon in Toronto, lost to Ivo in Cincy, lost to Blake in easy straights at Olyonpics. Lost to Murray in Shanghai, pulled out of Paris with an injury and then didn't even qualify for YEC semis. The only year that's happened. Roger was better in 2009 than 2008 but he was considerably worse in 2009 than 2007. For Rafa I'd say he was quite a bit better in 2017 than he was in 2015 and 2016. These terrible years can happen.
 

DarthFed

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Answering to both you and @DarthFed.

First,about 06.... I guess you guys are underestimating how one match, one set, and sometimes one point can affect the way you play in the next matches, sets and points. I will never say that surely the H2H would be turned upside down -- we know there are technical reasons playing here, but could it have influenced the outcome of a few other tight matches? Surely it could. Just like that drop shot to go up a double break in the first set of the 2011 RG final (out by half an inch). Can you imagine the giant wave of confidence a guy would be riding after beating Djokovic in the semi and beating Nadal 6x2 in the first set of the final? Again, Nadal does not gives matches away, but everyone who ever picked a racket knows that one point sometimes change completely the way you play for the next hour. So, back to 06, maybe that win would have prevented the change in approach in 2008... he could even have not made the final, or just not get routed that way. It all would impact in the W final. Anyway, Federer was clearly bellow his level from previous years in 2008. @El Dude has shown his stats against the field a thousand times. This does means he was a completely sucker (he was #2 in the world by year end), but he was a tad bellow his peak, Nadal was a tad above his previous years. Those little differences have a huge effect on tennis.

And I maintain the fact that the Nadal losses made Federer a better player (even if in a specific sense). Yes, the "process" going on led to the 2008/2009 bad losses against Nadal. But this is not what I am talking about. What I am saying is that I am sure it helped him to go through all the mediocre years from 2009 on (by his standards, even if with some occasional peaks) and just not retire. When he got to that phase in his career where great champions start to lose (and most cannot handle it), he already knew the feeling, he already knew how to look for answers. From a stubborn player who played without a coach and always tried to beat his adversaries playing their strengths rather than their weaknesses, from the tactically obedient guy we have from 2012/2013 on, the change is enormous. This change is not debatable. The cause of it, ok, is debatable, and my take is that great part of it is named Nadal.



No, I got that. I just probably did not express my self decently. My point that all those numbers I cited where symptoms that the T2T would be in favor of Federer. And, yes, I agree that the T2T is more "complete" than the H2H.

@Moxie, maybe the (obvious) fact that the guy who compiled the stats is a Federer fan made the basic finding look more biased than it actually is. Imagine if (and this is a "neutral" what if) the guy just cut the crap and decided to post only the basic finding. Both entered X tournaments together, Federer won Y%, Nadal Z%, Y>Z. That's it, that's the simplicity that GSM is trying to make reference to.

The problem is not the stat, it is the conclusion you take out of it. Y>Z is clear, but John > Jake is a whole other story. Tennis players are not numbers. The first conclusion I take with some confidence is that Federer is a more complete player than Nadal -- because all those tournaments where played in different surfaces, against different players across different generations. Of course we can argue if conditions were different, the numbers would be different. If tennis were only played on clay (or grass) there would be no discussion whatsoever.

In regards to the Rome match to me it comes down to whether it would've affected the RG final that year. And I just don't think it would have mattered because Roger came out very confident in that match anyways. Won the first set 6-1 but then Nadal easily turned it around and won in 4 sets. If it was a situation where it was a back and forth match that Roger barely lost (like the Rome final) then I'd agree that a win in Rome may have led to a win at RG. Rafa was just already a lot better on clay than Roger was and the gap only got larger.
 
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Nadalfan2013

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The Nadalites often gloat about his H2H over the goat. But, they fail to understand that the purpose of playing tennis is to win tournaments and to go as deep as possible if you cannot win. So, what is really more important is to figure out how much percentage of the tournaments in which both Ralph and Roger participated are won by each one of them. Also, it will be of interest to gather data as to who went deeper than the other considering only the tourneys in which they both participated. These two measures are more important than
H2H even when you are trying to compare two players directly. Needless to say that in both of these
measures Federer comes out ahead easily.

I was planning to gather these data and create a big post about it. But, I ran into this OP in another forum. It has already been done by somebody else and I don't want to repeat it. But, it was done by that person around July 2017 or so and the data will not be current. But, I am sure it has not tilted heavily after that and so the data in that post still has some relevance.

Here is the link to that article which I am retitling as H2H my ass .
I hope this shuts down all the Nadalites from talking about H2H ever again.

giphy.gif
 
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