The Lost Generation of Nishikori, Raonic and Dimitrov.

[Moxie]

So do you think the window of opportunity has shifted?

17-25

to

20-28

to

24-32 now?

If that is the case, then they still might have some chances. But the biggest thing for me is not these guys but the guys coming up behind them. NRG just might get shoved out of the way if they keep messing around.

The peak is now anywhere between 24-30. Over 30, so far was only Ferrer, Estrella Burgos is apeculiar case.

And just to clear thing up, before I go to bed: Ferrer didn't peak over 30. He rather had 2 peaks, and the first one was in his mid-20s, the 2nd began around 29. Estrella Burgos IS a peculiar case, though.

 

[brokenshoelace]

It's a terrible generation. I've said it two years ago, said it last year, said it this year, caught flack each and every time, and yet, am proven right each and every time.

I'm trying to remember how much "flack" you've caught for it. (I could be wrong.) But aside from some wistfulness and occasional optimism about them from the general populace, and specific cheerleading from actual fans of theirs, (of which there are a limited number,) I think we've all been wondering what's up with this group. El Dude has been signaling it for years.

I've never wondered what's up with this group. They're just not that good.

Huntingyou swore left and right Dimitrov will win a major and the whole forums accused me of saltiness for saying Dimitrov isn't that impressive after he took Nadal to 3 sets in Monte Carlo a few years ago.

Federberg, recently, argued with me that he refuses to believe this is a weak generation and that the top guys are just that good (I agree with the second part, but they're not mutually exclusive).

Kieran famously claimed this generation is "no worse" than Safin/Nalbandian/Roddick and co...

And of course, there's the Great Nishikori Scare of 2014, in which he was the man to challenge the top 4, and my downplaying the notion meant that I'm just upset that he beat...erm, lost to Nadal in Madrid, somehow.

Herios swears Raonic is just slowly improving and will get there (it takes him more time to get from one side of the court to the other, just to serve).

It's not like I'm making this up...

 

[Fiero425]

It's a terrible generation. I've said it two years ago, said it last year, said it this year, caught flack each and every time, and yet, am proven right each and every time.

I'm trying to remember how much "flack" you've caught for it. (I could be wrong.) But aside from some wistfulness and occasional optimism about them from the general populace, and specific cheerleading from actual fans of theirs, (of which there are a limited number,) I think we've all been wondering what's up with this group. El Dude has been signaling it for years.

I've never wondered what's up with this group. They're just not that good.

Huntingyou swore left and right Dimitrov will win a major and the whole forums accused me of saltiness for saying Dimitrov isn't that impressive after he took Nadal to 3 sets in Monte Carlo a few years ago.

Federberg, recently, argued with me that he refuses to believe this is a weak generation and that the top guys are just that good (I agree with the second part, but they're not mutually exclusive).

Kieran famously claimed this generation is "no worse" than Safin/Nalbandian/Roddick and co...

And of course, there's the Great Nishikori Scare of 2014, in which he was the man to challenge the top 4, and my downplaying the notion meant that I'm just upset that he beat...erm, lost to Nadal in Madrid, somehow.

Herios swears Raonic is just slowly improving and will get there (it takes him more time to get from one side of the court to the other, just to serve).

It's not like I'm making this up...

I'm disappointed I didn't rate! :nono :ras: No one more opinionated than me! Of course I feel I'm right; most pros today are "gutless" and waste what talent they have! They're unable to finish most upsets of "The Big 4!" Quite a few are just physically fragile and are breaking down on an accelerated pace not seen before! At least Safin & Roddick won 2 and 1 majors respectively! Roddick probably should have won at least 1 of those 4 Wimbledon finals; esp. in '09 w/ an easy volley for a 2 sets to love lead! Roger was toast but for that missed opportunity in that 2nd set TB!

 

[herios]

So do you think the window of opportunity has shifted?

17-25

to

20-28

to

24-32 now?

If that is the case, then they still might have some chances. But the biggest thing for me is not these guys but the guys coming up behind them. NRG just might get shoved out of the way if they keep messing around.

The peak is now anywhere between 24-30. Over 30, so far was only Ferrer, Estrella Burgos is apeculiar case.

And just to clear thing up, before I go to bed: Ferrer didn't peak over 30. He rather had 2 peaks, and the first one was in his mid-20s, the 2nd began around 29. Estrella Burgos IS a peculiar case, though.

You mentioned Ferrer's double peak not once. However, his second peak, is higher and more sustained than the first peak. His ranking was #3 (not #4 like in 2008) and also his second peak includes a GS final and a Master win. Definitely beats his first peak.

 

[El Dude]

Sorry, Broken, I'm not buying it. Everything you cited could be interpreted as just varying shades of gray. No one that I can remember didn't view this as a poor generation, but it is just a matter of degree.

By the way, I think SOMEONE will win a Slam. I mean, it has to happen eventually, right? Maybe Grigor gets sick of sucking and gets his shit together and peaks in his late 20s. By then--3 to 5 years from now--presumably Novak and Andy will have declined at least somewhat and while the next generation looks stronger, it may not have ultra dominant players like Roger, Rafa and Novak. In other words, once the Big Four really decline as a group, we might see a Wild West for a few years before the Kyrgios, Coric, Zverev group more fully asserts itself.

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[Kirijax]

Sorry, Broken, I'm not buying it. Everything you cited could be interpreted as just varying shades of gray. No one that I can remember didn't view this as a poor generation, but it is just a matter of degree.

By the way, I think SOMEONE will win a Slam. I mean, it has to happen eventually, right? Maybe Grigor gets sick of sucking and gets his crap together and peaks in his late 20s. By then--3 to 5 years from now--presumably Novak and Andy will have declined at least somewhat and while the next generation looks stronger, it may not have ultra dominant players like Roger, Rafa and Novak. In other words, once the Big Four really decline as a group, we might see a Wild West for a few years before the Kyrgios, Coric, Zverev group more fully asserts itself.

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Someone will win a Slam, but will it come from these three? I'm having my doubts about Nishikori and Raonic but Dimitrov stills strikes me as a sleeping giant. He has so much talent and I would be shocked if he ended up another Gasquet or even a Berdych. He just changed coaches so maybe that will help.

 

[herios]

I would like to see Grigor getting back on track, but sleeping giant???

uzzled:huh:

 

[Kirijax]

I would like to see Grigor getting back on track, but sleeping giant???

uzzled:huh:

Well, haha, ok. Depends on your definition of giant. We're so used to the Fedalovics that unless they win half a dozen Slams, they are small fry. One or two slams possible by Mr. Sugarpova maybe?

 

[El Dude]

Sorry, Broken, I'm not buying it. Everything you cited could be interpreted as just varying shades of gray. No one that I can remember didn't view this as a poor generation, but it is just a matter of degree.

By the way, I think SOMEONE will win a Slam. I mean, it has to happen eventually, right? Maybe Grigor gets sick of sucking and gets his crap together and peaks in his late 20s. By then--3 to 5 years from now--presumably Novak and Andy will have declined at least somewhat and while the next generation looks stronger, it may not have ultra dominant players like Roger, Rafa and Novak. In other words, once the Big Four really decline as a group, we might see a Wild West for a few years before the Kyrgios, Coric, Zverev group more fully asserts itself.

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Someone will win a Slam, but will it come from these three? I'm having my doubts about Nishikori and Raonic but Dimitrov stills strikes me as a sleeping giant. He has so much talent and I would be shocked if he ended up another Gasquet or even a Berdych. He just changed coaches so maybe that will help.

Yeah, I agree. Raonic would need a lot of help to win a Slam - his game is just too limited. But he also could do a Colic, so I wouldn't count him out.

Nishikori should be the top contender but he's just so fragile. I can definitely see him winning a Master's, but not sure he has the fortitude to win a Slam....like Milos, he needs a lot of help.

As far as talent and game goes, Grigor is the most gifted. But the Baby Gasquet appellation really hits home. Still, as I said above I could see him having some kind of wake-up call in the next couple years and being really strong in his late 20s.

David Goffin kind of seems like the Ferrer of the group - maximizing modest talent. I don't see him winning a Slam, but he seems to work hard and you just never know.

If we're talking about players born from 1989 to 1993, there aren't really any other serious candidates for a Slam. Tomic? Haha. I suppose Jack Sock is a distant possibility, not unlike Goffin.

Dominic Thiem and Jiri Vesely look more like future second tier players to me, but are worth considering. Both born in 1993, they're on the young side of this generation, sort of bookending it with Nishikori, Paire, and Klizan, all of whom were born in 1989.

So in groups of likelihood of winning a Slam, I'd rank this generation as follows:

1. Best contenders, if things break right - Nishikori, Raonic, Dimitrov
2. Possible but we haven't seen enough yet - Vesely, Thiem
3. Unlikely but dark horse candidates - Goffin, Sock, Pospisil
4. Yeah, right - Tomic, Kudla, Delbonis
5. Not a chance but worth mentioning - Paire, Klizan, Janowicz, Young, Harrison, Donskoy, Lajovic

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[isabelle]

Let's see what Dimitrov does with a new decent coach. Rasheed was a big mistake

 

[herios]

Let's see what Dimitrov does with a new decent coach. Rasheed was a big mistake

Rashed was OK for a fitness coach, but he needs someone else, to teach him strategy.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Sorry, Broken, I'm not buying it. Everything you cited could be interpreted as just varying shades of gray. No one that I can remember didn't view this as a poor generation, but it is just a matter of degree.

Federberg flat out said he doesn't think they're a weak generation and Kieran equated them to the Federer generation. It's not for you to buy. It's a fact.

 

[Kieran]

Kieran famously claimed this generation is "no worse" than Safin/Nalbandian/Roddick and co...

Noooooo, I said they were "as effective" as the chump change and rollover jackpots Roger cheaply discarded a decade ago. Or as ineffective, take, your pick.

Nick would want to watch himself, he's becoming an idiot. Okay, he's only 20, so he can come through, and he's younger than the lads we're talking about. Grigor is the real star flop of these boys. El Dude sold him to me a couple years back, but I kep' the receipt.

Okay, back to sleep for me...

 

[mrzz]

Put on the group that does not rate the Nishikori, Raonic and Dimitrov that high, given current evidence. But they still have time...

But I see no evidence either that the "next" generation will fare better. Ok, Kyrgios may be the youngest player in years to... I do not recall, whatever has he done, but I am still far from convinced that he is a future great player.

Maybe there are a few lost generations in a row....

 

[El Dude]

Put on the group that does not rate the Nishikori, Raonic and Dimitrov that high, given current evidence. But they still have time...

But I see no evidence either that the "next" generation will fare better. Ok, Kyrgios may be the youngest player in years to... I do not recall, whatever has he done, but I am still far from convinced that he is a future great player.

Maybe there are a few lost generations in a row....

Well there is no sign yet of a massive breakthrough, but give them time - the 1994-98 generation is young, turning age 17-21 this year. But there are promising signs that, at the least, they'll be better than the 1989-93 crew, maybe substantially so.

Kyrgios just turned 20, Coric, Chung, Zverev, Donaldson and Kokkinakis are 18, then you have 17 year olds Kozlov and Tiafoe worth keeping an eye on. As I've written about before, there hasn't been a great (6+ Slam) player who hadn't broken through as elite before their 22nd birthday, although most are already top 10 by 20 or so.

These guys have time. Coric in particular doesn't look far from a breakout, and Kokk and Zverev have really impressed of late. I think Kyrgios has a good chance of finishing the year in the top 20 with Coric not far behind. By the end of next year we could have half a dozen 20-21 year olds in the top 30.

All this talk makes me want to do a series of blogs on generations. I have some time opening up soon and once I finish the "national careers" series, I'll get on it.

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[El Dude]

Put on the group that does not rate the Nishikori, Raonic and Dimitrov that high, given current evidence. But they still have time...

But I see no evidence either that the "next" generation will fare better. Ok, Kyrgios may be the youngest player in years to... I do not recall, whatever has he done, but I am still far from convinced that he is a future great player.

Maybe there are a few lost generations in a row....

Well there is no sign yet of a massive breakthrough, but give them time - the 1994-98 generation is young, turning age 17-21 this year. But there are promising signs that, at the least, they'll be better than the 1989-93 crew, maybe substantially so.

Kyrgios just turned 20, Coric, Chung, Zverev, Donaldson and Kokkinakis are 18, then you have 17 year olds Kozlov and Tiafoe worth keeping an eye on. As I've written about before, there hasn't been a great (6+ Slam) player who hadn't broken through as elite before their 22nd birthday, although most are already top 10 by 20 or so.

These guys have time. Coric in particular doesn't look far from a breakout, and Kokk and Zverev have really impressed of late. I think Kyrgios has a good chance of finishing the year in the top 20 with Coric not far behind. By the end of next year we could have half a dozen 20-21 year olds in the top 30.

All this talk makes me want to do a series of blogs on generations. I have some time opening up soon and once I finish the "national careers" series, I'll get on it.

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[DarthFed]

The peak is now anywhere between 24-30. Over 30, so far was only Ferrer, Estrella Burgos is apeculiar case.

And just to clear thing up, before I go to bed: Ferrer didn't peak over 30. He rather had 2 peaks, and the first one was in his mid-20s, the 2nd began around 29. Estrella Burgos IS a peculiar case, though.

You mentioned Ferrer's double peak not once. However, his second peak, is higher and more sustained than the first peak. His ranking was #3 (not #4 like in 2008) and also his second peak includes a GS final and a Master win. Definitely beats his first peak.

There is no "second peak" here. Ferrer is flat out better and even more physically fit in his 30's than he was in his 20's. It is shocking to say the least. I can't think of anyone else even close to it that I've seen since I started watching tennis.

 

[herios]

Kyrgios just turned 20, Coric, Chung, Zverev, Donaldson and Kokkinakis are 18, then you have 17 year olds Kozlov and Tiafoe worth keeping an eye on.

For the record, Kokkinakis is 19.

 

[DarthFed]

Years or inches?

 

[herios]

There is no "second peak" here. Ferrer is flat out better and even more physically fit in his 30's than he was in his 20's. It is shocking to say the least. I can't think of anyone else even close to it that I've seen since I started watching tennis.

Wawrinka is closing on pulling the Ferrer. If he sustains his form one more year, he might do it. At this point, I am not counting him out to win another slam in the near future. Actually I am more positive in his chances, than Nadal's. ...I know my last statement could ignite some fireworks