Taking Stock of the Big Five - Predictions going forward

[Federberg]

One of the reasons why Djokovic may have less star power is how the careers of the three have panned out. Federer and Nadal dominated when Djokovic was still learning how to play the game, and he was still dealing with health issues. During that time, Federer and Nadal played so many matches (mostly on clay courts) when Federer was number 1 and Nadal was chasing him. Further, the two were monopolizing slams, creating a great rivalry. That dominance made for a great story, with the notoriety of both players soaring. Djokovic came later to the show, which made it difficult for him to reach the popularity of the other two. I guess if Nadal and Djokovic had dominated earlier, Federer would have struggled to find space in the popularity contest. It is also about timing.

That's a valid point. First mover probably has a great deal to do with it. But I wonder if contrasting styles don't also have an influence..

 

[atttomole]

That's a valid point. First mover probably has a great deal to do with it. But I wonder if contrasting styles don't also have an influence..

If you mean the contrasting styles of Roger and Rafa;yes, they may have an influence. They are so different from each other as tennis players, and fans seem to like that contrast.

 

[Moxie]

The contrast also makes great copy, so sportswriters love them too. That's what made them, in part, a great rivalry. But you are right, imo, that coming in later had an impact on Novak's popularity. The tennis fan world was already divided in two when he came up. There were only so many that would change their loyalty, or new fans to be had.

 

[Andy22]

1. Rafael 22 slams 102 titles . 2. Roger federer 22 slams 115 titles. 3. Djokovic 19 slams 86 titles.

 

[Andy22]

1. Rafael 22 slams 102 titles . 2. Roger federer 22 slams 115 titles. 3. Djokovic 19 slams 86 titles.

ROGER: Taking advantage of the weakened elite, with none of the younger generations really stepping forward. He'll never have a better chance than 2018 to pad his stats, but should be good for 2019 and even 2020-21. I think he wins at least two more Slams, maybe as many as four, but I'll stick with two more for now (one in 2018, one in 2019). Prediction: 22 Slams, ~110 titles.

RAFA: The hip is a concern, maybe moreso than we think. But he's come back before and deserves the benefit of the doubt. I don't think he wins more than than two more, though. Predicting: 18 Slams, ~90 titles.

NOVAK: The hardest player on this list to prediction. If he finds himself again he could win 4-5 more, or he could win none. While he looks lost out there, he is one of the greatest of all time so I'm going to guess he comes back and wins more. I'll go with three. Prediction: 15 Slams, ~80 titles.

ANDY: I'm not optimistic. With Andy's style of play, a hip injury may spell the end of his elite status. Maybe he comes back, but I don't think he wins any more Slams. Consider that he'll have to play into form in the second half of 2018, then by 2019 you'll have more young players emerging...I could see him winning maybe a Masters or two, but think he'll be more of a #5-15 type, at best. Prediction: 3 Slams, ~50 titles.

STAN: Ditto Andy. I think the "Stanimal Era" is over. Maybe he wins a handful of ATP 500/250s, but that's about it. Prediction: 3 Slams, ~20 titles.

ROGER: Taking advantage of the weakened elite, with none of the younger generations really stepping forward. He'll never have a better chance than 2018 to pad his stats, but should be good for 2019 and even 2020-21. I think he wins at least two more Slams, maybe as many as four, but I'll stick with two more for now (one in 2018, one in 2019). Prediction: 22 Slams, ~110 titles.

RAFA: The hip is a concern, maybe moreso than we think. But he's come back before and deserves the benefit of the doubt. I don't think he wins more than than two more, though. Predicting: 18 Slams, ~90 titles.

NOVAK: The hardest player on this list to prediction. If he finds himself again he could win 4-5 more, or he could win none. While he looks lost out there, he is one of the greatest of all time so I'm going to guess he comes back and wins more. I'll go with three. Prediction: 15 Slams, ~80 titles.

ANDY: I'm not optimistic. With Andy's style of play, a hip injury may spell the end of his elite status. Maybe he comes back, but I don't think he wins any more Slams. Consider that he'll have to play into form in the second half of 2018, then by 2019 you'll have more young players emerging...I could see him winning maybe a Masters or two, but think he'll be more of a #5-15 type, at best. Prediction: 3 Slams, ~50 titles.

STAN: Ditto Andy. I think the "Stanimal Era" is over. Maybe he wins a handful of ATP 500/250s, but that's about it. Prediction: 3 Slams, ~20 titles.

I think you are most likely going to be wrong about Andy Murray not winning, any more slams, Murray will likely win one more even with all he's injury's.

 

[El Dude]

I think you are most likely going to be wrong about Andy Murray not winning, any more slams, Murray will likely win one more even with all he's injury's.

Maybe, who knows. But my thinking is that with the rising young players and Fedal still hanging around, Andy pretty much has to return to peak form to win Slams. That’s doubtful considering his injury, but even if he does it won’t be until 2019 and then he’ll be turning 32 and age will be more and more of a factor. I’d probably give him 10-20% of winning another.

 

[Andy22]

Maybe, who knows. But my thinking is that with the rising young players and Fedal still hanging around, Andy pretty much has to return to peak form to win Slams. That’s doubtful considering his injury, but even if he does it won’t be until 2019 and then he’ll be turning 32 and age will be more and more of a factor. I’d probably give him 10-20% of winning another.

. Well my thinking is that Murray still beats the rising stars at 80% of his best, I Agree its going be hard if nadal, federer around. I would give Murray a 50/50 chance of winning one with upsets, but we will see.