Taking Stock of the Big Five - Predictions going forward

[El Dude]

ROGER: Taking advantage of the weakened elite, with none of the younger generations really stepping forward. He'll never have a better chance than 2018 to pad his stats, but should be good for 2019 and even 2020-21. I think he wins at least two more Slams, maybe as many as four, but I'll stick with two more for now (one in 2018, one in 2019). Prediction: 22 Slams, ~110 titles.

RAFA: The hip is a concern, maybe moreso than we think. But he's come back before and deserves the benefit of the doubt. I don't think he wins more than than two more, though. Predicting: 18 Slams, ~90 titles.

NOVAK: The hardest player on this list to prediction. If he finds himself again he could win 4-5 more, or he could win none. While he looks lost out there, he is one of the greatest of all time so I'm going to guess he comes back and wins more. I'll go with three. Prediction: 15 Slams, ~80 titles.

ANDY: I'm not optimistic. With Andy's style of play, a hip injury may spell the end of his elite status. Maybe he comes back, but I don't think he wins any more Slams. Consider that he'll have to play into form in the second half of 2018, then by 2019 you'll have more young players emerging...I could see him winning maybe a Masters or two, but think he'll be more of a #5-15 type, at best. Prediction: 3 Slams, ~50 titles.

STAN: Ditto Andy. I think the "Stanimal Era" is over. Maybe he wins a handful of ATP 500/250s, but that's about it. Prediction: 3 Slams, ~20 titles.

 

[mrzz]

STAN: Ditto Andy. I think the "Stanimal Era" is over. Maybe he wins a handful of ATP 500/250s, but that's about it. Prediction: 3 Slams, ~20 titles.

Wawrinka is a random variable. All scenarios are equally likely. The most important measure for him is how much longer he plays (that is, how many more hands he is dealt with waiting for that straight flush that came out three times already).

 

[britbox]

I'd give Djoker a 50% chance of winning zero slams here on in... but if he gets back on track he's got the game to win multiple majors in a single year.

Andy Murray... I'll go with zero more majors.

Roger... I thought he left a lot out there at the AO... but now I'm thinking it was the pressure of getting #20. He should be relaxed and with the field in a somewhat transitional state I think he'll win more.... maybe 2+

Rafa... Another 2

 

[Federberg]

not a clue. I hope Roger and Stan both win some more. Don't really care a hoot about any of the rest to be honest. I would far rather see some of the new guys start to win. I wouldn't presume to actually predict as anything can happen in sport. But it seems to me based on what's happened over the last few months that Roger and Rafa look like they have more majors in them, I can't say the same about any of the others. I would be far more optimistic about Stan if he hadn't parted ways with the coach who helped him to his success. I've always maintained with Novak that it would be easier to get a sense of his potential after the first half of the year, given his injuries it's probably better to wait until at least the USO to get a feel for what's happening with him. As for Andy, we need to see how successful the operation was. I don't think he's hampered by the mental issues Novak clearly has so to me it's just a physical thing

 

[Busted]

WTH...I'll give this a shot -

Roger - 22 Slams, 107 titles...retires after 2020 season

Nadal - 17 Slams, 82 titles (all future titles will be won only on clay)...retires after 2021 season

Djokovic - 14 Slams, 75 titles...retires after 2020 season (he says he wants to play until he's 35...but I don't see that happening)

Murray - 4 Slams, 52 titles...retires after 2022 season (he may have 1 more Wimbledon in him)

Stan - 3 Slams, 16 titles...retires after 2021 season (yes, that's right...I don't think Stan will ever win another tournament)

 

[Moxie]

Roger: Surely he's found some fountain of youth and is taking advantage of the reduced field. I think 2 more Majors for him. I can't be bothered with the titles count.

Rafa: I hope that injuries are an issue, and he has age on his side vis-a-vis Roger. Not sure he'll ever catch Roger, but I think he'll start beating him again.

Novak: He's a worry. His head and competitiveness have abandoned him. It's yet to be seen how he'll recover, but I think 3 more Majors for him, max.

Andy: Everyone is very worried that he had hip surgery. I'm among them. And Lendl has left him. I'm thinking he may have one more, but at a stretch.

Stan: I think he's done. Especially since he dumped Norman.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Novak hasn't won a slam for almost 2 years. It's so weird to think. But, his injuries explain it. I don't know if and when his elbow injury will really go away. By that time, he could be over 31 by then. Age is not a problem for these guys.

https://www.express.co.uk/sport/ten...-weird-Indian-Wells-defeat-tennis-news-latest

That article tells how weird Djokovic felt on court. So, it must be a lack of match practice really. If the injury doesn't come back, and he is able to get in match practice on his favourite type of courts, he should be good to go for the FO. But, that's really his best case scenario right now. At least, he should be ready for Wimbly or USO if everything goes right for him.

He can become top 10 or top 5 again. Something like top 3 will require a fine performance over a season. And, it's not going to be easy at all. It bears watching, mate.

 

[atttomole]

I don't have a clue either, but I will be bold and say Roger wins five more to reach 25 slams. As for the total number of titles, I guess he will finish with 108.

 

[Moxie]

Wow, that IS bold. 5 more titles. I think 0-2. This was the guy who didn't win a title for 4+ years. The back could go at any time. He's got the benefit now of so many top players being lame, but I don't think these halcyon days last forever. Or even much longer.

 

[atttomole]

The good days will obviously not last forever. I can tell you that I never thought Roger would reach 16 slams, but now he is at 20. Experts were predicting Roger's career trajectory by extrapolation of the career paths of the top players that came before him. As we have seen, Roger has defied all those predictions. Rafa has done the same.

 

[El Dude]

None of us have a clue, of course, but that's why its called speculation. I like your boldness, @attamole, but I highly doubt he wins 5 more Slams.

Wow, that IS bold. 5 more titles. I think 0-2. This was the guy who didn't win a title for 4+ years. The back could go at any time. He's got the benefit now of so many top players being lame, but I don't think these halcyon days last forever. Or even much longer.

Hater

 

[Moxie]

Hater

 

[Moxie]

None of us have a clue, of course, but that's why its called speculation. I like your boldness, @attamole, but I highly doubt he wins 5 more Slams.

It amuses me how short-term our memories are, and how much failure of imagination we suffer. 2017 was clearly going to be the year of Murray/Djokovic, until it wasn't. Djokovic was unbeatable and there was no one to take him down. Until he took himself down. Federer was done, until he wasn't. Nadal, perennially the guy who's career will be shortened by his playing style, becomes the oldest YE#1.

All we know is what we don't know.

 

[DarthFed]

Wow, that IS bold. 5 more titles. I think 0-2. This was the guy who didn't win a title for 4+ years. The back could go at any time. He's got the benefit now of so many top players being lame, but I don't think these halcyon days last forever. Or even much longer.

Only one of the injuries has really mattered and even then Djoker has played in every GS that Fed's won these past two seasons.

For Roger it is all about health and motivation. If he has that he will win many more. I wouldn't bet on 5 more but you never know.

 

[Moxie]

Only one of the injuries has really mattered and even then Djoker has played in every GS that Fed's won these past two seasons.

For Roger it is all about health and motivation. If he has that he will win many more. I wouldn't bet on 5 more but you never know.

I don't think motivation is a problem, up and until Mirka and the kids stop traveling with him. He could have become complacent a long time ago. I think he'll play to his physical abilities, and his family requirements.

 

[Chris Koziarz]

I don't have a clue either, but I will be bold and say Roger wins five more to reach 25 slams. As for the total number of titles, I guess he will finish with 108.

Your prediction gives him disproportionate number of GS among other titles. So far GS trophies constitute roughly 21% of his cabinet (20 out of 97). That percentage did not go up significantly last year: he won 2 GS among 7 titles, so 28%.
But from 2018 onward, you give him 6 GS (including the last AO that belongs to the past part of 2018) among 12 titles total (108 - 96, including Rotterdam that belongs to the past part of 2018), which is 50% (6 out of 12). That GS percentage jump in his cabinet from 20% to 50% is not justified from what I see. Why do you see it? Do you think he'll just stop playing other tourneys altogether and will concentrate on slams only? I don't see any signs of it so far. Or do you simply wish that Connors' record of 109 stand and want Fed to stop just shy of it at 108, while not minding Fed's GS record because it's already unprecedented?

 

[atttomole]

Your prediction gives him disproportionate number of GS among other titles. So far GS trophies constitute roughly 21% of his cabinet (20 out of 97). That percentage did not go up significantly last year: he won 2 GS among 7 titles, so 28%.
But from 2018 onward, you give him 6 GS (including the last AO open that belongs to the past part of 2018) among 12 titles total (108 - 96, including Rotterdam that belongs to the past part of 2018), which is 50% (6 out of 12). That GS percentage jump in his cabinet from 20% to 50% is not justified from what I see. Why do you see it? Do you think he'll just stop playing other tourneys altogether and will concentrate on slams only? I don't see any signs of it so far. Or do you simply wish that Connors' record of 109 stand and want Fed to stop just shy of it at 108, while not minding Fed's GS record because it's already unprecedented?

Remember Roger had not won a slam since 2012, and most of us thought he was done winning slams, but he has now won 3 of the last 5 slams, which is 60 % of the slams played since 2017. Statistics would not have predicted those numbers, considering Roger’s age. Roger is also winning in part because the field is weak, and if the field continues like this, I don’t see why he can not win another 5.

 

[Moxie]

Remember Roger had not won a slam since 2012, and most of us thought he was done winning slams, but he has now won 3 of the last 5 slams, which is 60 % of the slams played since 2017. Statistics would not have predicted those numbers, considering Roger’s age. Roger is also winning in part because the field is weak, and if the field continues like this, I don’t see why he can not win another 5.

Given that Roger is unlikely to win the next 5 in a row, and that he'll lose a few, you're projecting him well into 2020. The younger competition is going to have matured before then.

 

[atttomole]

Given that Roger is unlikely to win the next 5 in a row, and that he'll lose a few, you're projecting him well into 2020. The younger competition is going to have matured before then.

We have been waiting forever for the younger competition. That time will come, but it will be later than we think. I think Roger can play until he is 40, and he is not finished surprising us.

 

[Moxie]

We have been waiting forever for the younger competition. That time will come, but it will be later than we think. I think Roger can play until he is 40, and he is not finished surprising us.

That comment is not without merit, and not without sentimentality. While the middle generation has had nothing to say for itself, there are young players in the waiting who are actually on the brink. I'm only saying that what we see today is not what we'll see tomorrow.