I haven't felt confident about Roger since before Wimbledon. If he wins this one perhaps he really has got something on Rafa. Frankly I'm expecting Rafa to win
I think Rafa has more at stake than Roger does. He doesn't like Roger winning the last 4 on the trot any more than he liked it when Djokovic was beating him like a drum 7 times in a row. He really thought he had Roger's number, so you know he's going to leave his left kidney on court trying to stop Roger's streak.
Plus, I keep seeing all of these "Who's the Player of the Year - Nadal or Federer" stories and it seems to me like Nadal, with a 2,360 point lead, would have that locked down, but a number of people have chosen Roger because of the H2H this year. Roger skipped the entire clay court season and basically spotted Nadal 5,680 points...and yet he only trails him 2,360 points going into the final while playing 5 fewer tournaments. Plus, Roger's H2H against the Top 10 is better than Nadal's.
And since I'm a Fed Fan...I'll pick Roger just on principle. I don't know that he's unlocked the key to his matchups with Nadal - but I think he's ceased caring about their H2H numbers while Nadal's ego demands that the H2H remain in solidly in his favor for the GOAT debate - especially if he never wins another Slam (said hypothetically because there's always the French Open).