Russia Politics Thread

Federberg

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tented

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it's not good, but when you benchmark it against developing market currencies that export oil it's well within the range of the past year. Look at the Nigerian Naira or Angolan kwanza. But I guess my saying that sort of proves the point, if that's what it needs to be compared to! :D
As someone who is most certainly not an economist, I’ll ask what are the implications of the ruble dropping so low?
 

Federberg

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In a conventional setting a weak currency is likely to be inflationary because of more expensive imports. I suspect they’re experiencing that. But as this isn’t exactly normal and consumption choices are restricted because of sanctions I suspect most of the impact is massive stress on their fiscal position as they’ve (1) substituted consumer goods where possible with domestic products (2) reduced government services like health care and education for defence production

So what that amounts to is that certainly outside of Moscow and St Petersburg citizens are probably experiencing a war economy with its associated deprivations. I imagine that Putin is doing everything he can to shield ethnic Russians from feeling the pain. Other parts of Russia are doubtless feeling it more. By the way this is possible because I think there’s a lot of leakage and sanctions are less tight than the West would hope. If Ukraine is able to really threaten the Black Sea shipping we might see a more dramatic impact on the ordinary Russian
 
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In a conventional setting a weak currency is likely to be inflationary because of more expensive imports. I suspect they’re experiencing that. But as this isn’t exactly normal and consumption choices are restricted because of sanctions I suspect most of the impact is massive stress on their fiscal position as they’ve (1) substituted consumer goods where possible with domestic products (2) reduced government services like health care and education for defence production

So what that amounts to is that certainly outside of Moscow and St Petersburg citizens are probably experiencing a war economy with its associated deprivations. I imagine that Putin is doing everything he can to shield ethnic Russians from feeling the pain. Other parts of Russia are doubtless feeling it more. By the way this is possible because I think there’s a lot of leakage and sanctions are less tight than the West would hope. If Ukraine is able to really threaten the Black Sea shipping we might see a more dramatic impact on the ordinary Russian
That provides a lot of insight. Thanks. I hadn’t thought of it in terms of how the economy is affecting day-to-day life beyond the big cities. Could we be headed towards another Russian revolution if Putin continues this suicide mission?
 

Federberg

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That provides a lot of insight. Thanks. I hadn’t thought of it in terms of how the economy is affecting day-to-day life beyond the big cities. Could we be headed towards another Russian revolution if Putin continues this suicide mission?
I don't think the organisational infrastructure exists for a revolution. The higher probability option is that someone or some group within the inner circle overthrows him, and he's quietly forced aside but left unharmed. After the Wagner group mutiny it has become apparent that support within the army, security services and inner circle is less strong that previously assumed. I imagine that right now you have a lot of wolves sniffing around trying to figure out who's loyal and who's willing to risk it for more power. At some point that will stop, and lines will be drawn and moves will be made. The lower probability event is that some of the republics from the far abroad take the chance to break away from Russia. That wouldn't be revolution but civil war. And there are terrifying global implications. I suspect this is one of the main reasons China has taken the stance it has. That sort of instability does no one any good, least of all Russia's giant neighbour... China.

The higher probability option will have zero impact on the Ukraine war. The lower probability scenario, probably ends the Ukraine war quickly with Ukraine subsequently quickly rushed into NATO. I don't see any revolution type scenario playing out, you can think of that option as the lottery option. That would involve a Navalny type mobilising the people. I don't think he has that deep a hold on the Russian people. Certainly not the non-ethno-Russians. So even that revolutionary option has potential civil war implications. In summary... it's a fucking mess
 
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Federberg

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The Russians are a united people, and tough to boot. There is only one winner in this "war" and it isn't the West. Generals in skirts don't win wars.
 

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The Russians are a united people, and tough to boot. There is only one winner in this "war" and it isn't the West. Generals in skirts don't win wars.
That’s true about generals in skirts. That kind of nonsense is a bad sign for the west. Also true about Russian people unified. All people oppressed by tyrants are united under the jackboot…
 

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A peace deal was scrapped thanks to Biden the warmonger sending Boris Johnson over to tell Ukraine not to sign anything. The amount of unnecessary blood on Biden's hands is immense. Young men sent to the meat grinder for nothing from both sides.
 

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A peace deal was scrapped thanks to Biden the warmonger sending Boris Johnson over to tell Ukraine not to sign anything. The amount of unnecessary blood on Biden's hands is immense. Young men sent to the meat grinder for nothing from both sides.

The warmonger is the man who started the war. Let’s not get all Monte Pythonesque and break into a verse of “All Hail the Tyrant”, or something similarly satirical…
 

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The warmonger is the man who started the war. Let’s not get all Monte Pythonesque and break into a verse of “All Hail the Tyrant”, or something similarly satirical…
Let's all be real here. NATO have been expanding eastwards towards Russia a long time now and Russia told them back off or we'll invade. Don't cod yourself to think the US wouldn't do the exact same thing if China or Russia started putting bases all around Mexico encircling with the capability to hit them from multiple angles. NATO were warned and now much of the world is paying for their stupidity and stubbornness.

This could have all been avoided by Biden, NATO and Boris fucking Johnson but, no, they'd rather make a mint sending Ukraine weapons to keep them in debt for the next 100 years without a single shit given for the massive amount of lives lost for nothing just in the hope it weakens Russia...

And they intend to rebuild Ukraine using dirty money from Blackrock and JP Morgan. A dirty, scheming plan to make a fortune out of it all and to hell with the poor dead Ukrainian and Russian soldiers and innocent bystanders.
 
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Kieran

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Let's all be real here. NATO have been expanding eastwards towards Russia a long time now and Russia told them back off or we'll invade. Don't cod yourself to think the US wouldn't do the exact same thing if China or Russia started putting bases all around Mexico encircling with the capability to hit them from multiple angles. NATO were warned and now much of the world is paying for their stupidity and stubbornness.

This could have all been avoided by Biden, NATO and Boris fucking Johnson but, no, they'd rather make a mint sending Ukraine weapons to keep them in debt for the next 100 years without a single shit given for the massive amount of lives lost for nothing just in the hope it weakens Russia...
Let’s be equally real here: free countries are entitled to join NATO, the EU and any damn thing they want to. And they did.

The problem for Putin is that he can’t see that the reason why they join NATO is because of him. If he stopped and wondered why everyone is in such a hurry to find safety after the decades of hell that was the Soviet Union, he might actually show signs of integrity.

Stop cheerleading for tyrants. You’re not their sort of person, either..
 

Front242

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Let’s be equally real here: free countries are entitled to join NATO, the EU and any damn thing they want to. And they did.

The problem for Putin is that he can’t see that the reason why they join NATO is because of him. If he stopped and wondered why everyone is in such a hurry to find safety after the decades of hell that was the Soviet Union, he might actually show signs of integrity.

Stop cheerleading for tyrants. You’re not their sort of person, either..
You're aware Boris Johnson Biden's puppet flew over to Kyiv to tell them not to sign a peace deal and that this could all have been avoided if not for Biden, right?

So by causing an avoidable war he's worse than Putin...
 
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Kieran

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You're aware Boris Johnson Biden's puppet fly over to Kyiv to tell them not to sign a peace deal and that this could all have been avoided if not for Biden, right?

So by causing an avoidable war he's worse than Putin...
It all should have been avoided if the vicious backward thinking tyrant had stayed in his own back yard.

Stop defending the worst types of people!
 

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It all should have been avoided if the vicious backward thinking tyrant had stayed in his own back yard.

Stop defending the worst types of people!
Like who. Biden? Doesn't get much worse admittedly. The US together with the UK blew the living shit out of Iraq based on a lie. Putin is nothing compared to them. They absolutely LOVE war. The US are arming Israel to the teeth to help with their leveling of Gaza. They have no morals.