Roland Garros / French Open 2023 [Men] - Grand Slam

[PhiEaglesfan712]

The more I think about it, Alcaraz is going to win this one rather easily. If Djokovic struggled against the likes of Musetti and Tsitsipas in 2021, I just can't see him 2 years later beating this version of Alcaraz.

 

[Fiero425]

Novak has proven himself again and again and again. Really hard to take sides against him on clay. But, Carlitos is showing some mettle and that confidence at that age is really irreplaceable--a young Pete, a young Nadal (not so much Nole or even Roger until 22 by way of comparison) had that swagger, that self-belief they were largely invincible. Alcaraz knows this is his time. Can he handle "the moment" against one of the greatest to ever play? It is a tall task and Novak is a known quantity--nobody is going to blow him out and particularly not a young whippersnapper! LOL. It should be riveting stuff from the first service either way.

I can see the hypocrisy rearing its ugly head! When Federer was the senior player, Novak got no credit for beating an old man just 5-6 years older! Now there's a bigger gap of 15-16 years and I don't hear the same BS! Some haters think Carlito will win easily! We'll see if reactions are consistent! I doubt it either way!

 

[Fiero425]

The more I think about it, Alcaraz is going to win this one rather easily. If Djokovic struggled against the likes of Musetti and Tsitsipas in 2021, I just can't see him 2 years later beating this version of Alcaraz.

You're not taking into consideration the winning streak Novak was on! He wasn't dropping many matches and getting much rest! He was not only winning majors in bunches, he was adding to his Masters record as well up until then! Winning too much can be a curse and it catches up w/ you eventually! He may not have liked being banned in the States the last couple seasons, but I think it'll help his longevity!

 

[Nadalfan2013]

The more I think about it, Alcaraz is going to win this one rather easily. If Djokovic struggled against the likes of Musetti and Tsitsipas in 2021, I just can't see him 2 years later beating this version of Alcaraz.

But don’t forget this:

Superstar Novak Djokovic's physiotherapist mixes 'dodgy' drink for him

Novak Djokovic suffered a shock defeat to Danish Teenager Holger Rune in the Paris Masters final on Sunday night, but a video of his physio mixing him a drink is what really got fans talking.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Jelenafan]

I can see the hypocrisy rearing its ugly head! When Federer was the senior player, Novak got no credit for beating an old man just 5-6 years older! Now there's a bigger gap of 15-16 years and I don't hear the same BS! Some haters think Carlito will win easily! We'll see if reactions are consistent! I doubt it either way!

Well, are you claiming that Novak is declining because of age, so you want him to retire? Because if he continues to play on the tour nobody is going to give him a senior pass discount.

It was annoying when Federer fans used the age excuse and its embarrassing if you start using it with Novak.

Im giving Carlos the edge on this match and that’s not a slight on Novak ( probably would give Novak the edge on grass and H/C would be a tossup) . One reason I’m doing so is because the surface is red clay, and Carlitos has won 2 red clay tournies as a warmup to Roland Garros and his form has been very good and he hasn't been over extended physically which is a factor. His legs should be fresh which is a scary proposition. The biggest leap forward is the Alcatraz serve, at IW last year it was consistently attackable but this year he's hitting his spots more & mixing it up more. I like the attack he has shown on the clay, and he's closing points off brutally.

In a weird way he plays The red clay aggressively as a hard court but unlike everyone else who attempts to do it, its not to compensate for chinks in his game (compare with practically every American who tries to do that at the FO) He can grind it out if he has to because he looks supremely conditioned, and usually Novak has a huge edge on younger opponents who cannot hang.

Just as in the NBA Kareem’s sky hook was nigh indefensible, i think the Alcaraz drop shop is getting close to that point. Nobody else tees off on a FH with such power to then feather the next FH with a buttery “just there” dropshot from any position in the court, even from behind the baseline. Other players seem to have a split second when they decide but with Carlos it’s almost instinctual & free flowing, and free flowing is not something i usually connect with drop shots. It has to drive his opponents insane and if any surface is drop shot heaven it is red clay. Once again he doesn’t do it to compensate for lack of power ( see many French players) or exhausted in a rally ( see many many players) but as an offensive tool in his arsenal.

So Fiero, while my prediction may be off, after all he is playing an all time great in 23 Slam winner Novak, there are factors to favor Carlos without simply being “hatred” of Novak.

But again, let’s retire the “age” factor, its getting old. ; )

 

[don_fabio]

One or more posters mentioned how crucial it is for Novak to start well this match, possibly win that 1st somehow. I have to agree with this. I'm too lazy to check a few pages back, but if Alcaraz starts beating Nole easily, this could also turn into a beatdown. It happened to Nole against Rafa in 2020. Novak can afford to start however he likes against Zverevs and Tsitsipases, but feel like can't afford to play from behind here, Alcaraz can run over the opponents once he is in a command, you give him a small finger, he takes a whole hand.

 

[Nadalfan2013]

One or more posters mentioned how crucial it is for Novak to start well this match, possibly win that 1st somehow. I have to agree with this. I'm too lazy to check a few pages back, but if Alcaraz starts beating Nole easily, this could also turn into a beatdown. It happened to Nole against Rafa in 2020. Novak can afford to start however he likes against Zverevs and Tsitsipases, but feel like can't afford to play from behind here, Alcaraz can run over the opponents once he is in a command, you give him a small finger, he takes a whole hand.

Alcaraz will send Djokovic into retirement. It will not be pretty.

 

[Fiero425]

Well, are you claiming that Novak is declining because of age, so you want him to retire? Because if he continues to play on the tour nobody is going to give him a senior pass discount.

It was annoying when Federer fans used the age excuse and its embarrassing if you start using it with Novak.

Im giving Carlos the edge on this match and that’s not a slight on Novak ( probably would give Novak the edge on grass and H/C would be a tossup) . One reason I’m doing so is because the surface is red clay, and Carlitos has won 2 red clay tournies as a warmup to Roland Garros and his form has been very good and he hasn't been over extended physically which is a factor. His legs should be fresh which is a scary proposition. The biggest leap forward is the Alcatraz serve, at IW last year it was consistently attackable but this year he's hitting his spots more & mixing it up more. I like the attack he has shown on the clay, and he's closing points off brutally.

In a weird way he plays The red clay aggressively as a hard court but unlike everyone else who attempts to do it, its not to compensate for chinks in his game (compare with practically every American who tries to do that at the FO) He can grind it out if he has to because he looks supremely conditioned, and usually Novak has a huge edge on younger opponents who cannot hang.

Just as in the NBA Kareem’s sky hook was nigh indefensible, i think the Alcaraz drop shop is getting close to that point. Nobody else tees off on a FH with such power to then feather the next FH with a buttery “just there” dropshot from any position in the court, even from behind the baseline. Other players seem to have a split second when they decide but with Carlos it’s almost instinctual & free flowing, and free flowing is not something i usually connect with drop shots. It has to drive his opponents insane and if any surface is drop shot heaven it is red clay. Once again he doesn’t do it to compensate for lack of power ( see many French players) or exhausted in a rally ( see many many players) but as an offensive tool in his arsenal.

So Fiero, while my prediction may be off, after all he is playing an all time great in 23 Slam winner Novak, there are factors to favor Carlos without simply being “hatred” of Novak.

But again, let’s retire the “age” factor, its getting old. ; )

I couldn't care less about the age disparity! If you're out there, you need to compete and not use any excuses! I was one who thought Federer held his own and didn't go down to lesser players until 2020-21! For goodness sake, he had 2 MP's to win his 9th Wimbledon in 2019! That had nothing to do w/ age and it PO'd me BIG TIME when the Novak haters tried to use it as a reason! I find Carlos to be the future of men's tennis along w/ Rune! As much as I like them both, Novak needs this FO just to put himself ahead of the tennis gods of Fedal! Everything will be gravy then and he can retire happy that he gave it his all! He's still holding on for now and I'll try to appreciate him like the Fedal fans out there who didn't want them to leave the tour prematurely! Novak just won another AO and is in the SF of the FO! Why should he think of retiring? I'll give him a good 2 years to add to his resume!

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I couldn't care less about the age disparity! If you're out there, you need to compete and not use any excuses! I was one who thought Federer held his own and didn't go down to lesser players until 2020-21! For goodness sake, he had 2 MP's to win his 9th Wimbledon in 2019! That had nothing to do w/ age and it PO'd me BIG TIME when the Novak haters tried to use it as a reason! I find Carlos to be the future of men's tennis along w/ Rune! As much as I like them both, Novak needs this FO just to put himself ahead of the tennis gods of Fedal! Everything will be gravy then and he can retire happy that he gave it his all! He's still holding on for now and I'll try to appreciate him like the Fedal fans out there who didn't want them to leave the tour prematurely! Novak just won another AO and is in the SF of the FO! Why should he think of retiring? I'll give him a good 2 years to add to his resume!

The way Roger lost the 2019 Wimbledon was the worst thing to happen. I'm 100% convinced that Roger would have retired on that high had he won that final. The only reason Roger continued on was to see if he could go out on winning a slam, and he did until his body gave out after 2021 Wimbledon. I kind of wished that Roger would have never returned after the pandemic, and his last match would have been the loss to Djokovic in the semifinals of the 2020 AO. That would have been a much more respectable ending than whatever Federer's 2021 season was.

 

[Fiero425]

The way Roger lost the 2019 Wimbledon was the worst thing to happen. I'm 100% convinced that Roger would have retired on that high had he won that final. The only reason Roger continued on was to see if he could go out on winning a slam, and he did until his body gave out after 2021 Wimbledon. I kind of wished that Roger would have never returned after the pandemic, and his last match would have been the loss to Djokovic in the semifinals of the 2020 AO. That would have been a much more respectable ending than whatever Federer's 2021 season was.

I've been saying for years Roger hung on too long! His ego just wouldnt allow it! I first thought his Wimbledon win in 2012 was a good time, then after 2017, but again, he just wouldn't retire and he's paid for it! It really wasn't worth those 3 extra majors! He's now a firm #3 all time! If he had left a couple years earlier, we could have utilized the "what if" years down the line! IMO he hurt his legacy permanently giving Nadovic the pedestal he used to share with Nadal! He really messed up w/ a losing record to both of them!

 

[kskate2]

Well, are you claiming that Novak is declining because of age, so you want him to retire? Because if he continues to play on the tour nobody is going to give him a senior pass discount.

It was annoying when Federer fans used the age excuse and its embarrassing if you start using it with Novak.

Im giving Carlos the edge on this match and that’s not a slight on Novak ( probably would give Novak the edge on grass and H/C would be a tossup) . One reason I’m doing so is because the surface is red clay, and Carlitos has won 2 red clay tournies as a warmup to Roland Garros and his form has been very good and he hasn't been over extended physically which is a factor. His legs should be fresh which is a scary proposition. The biggest leap forward is the Alcatraz serve, at IW last year it was consistently attackable but this year he's hitting his spots more & mixing it up more. I like the attack he has shown on the clay, and he's closing points off brutally.

In a weird way he plays The red clay aggressively as a hard court but unlike everyone else who attempts to do it, its not to compensate for chinks in his game (compare with practically every American who tries to do that at the FO) He can grind it out if he has to because he looks supremely conditioned, and usually Novak has a huge edge on younger opponents who cannot hang.

Just as in the NBA Kareem’s sky hook was nigh indefensible, i think the Alcaraz drop shop is getting close to that point. Nobody else tees off on a FH with such power to then feather the next FH with a buttery “just there” dropshot from any position in the court, even from behind the baseline. Other players seem to have a split second when they decide but with Carlos it’s almost instinctual & free flowing, and free flowing is not something i usually connect with drop shots. It has to drive his opponents insane and if any surface is drop shot heaven it is red clay. Once again he doesn’t do it to compensate for lack of power ( see many French players) or exhausted in a rally ( see many many players) but as an offensive tool in his arsenal.

So Fiero, while my prediction may be off, after all he is playing an all time great in 23 Slam winner Novak, there are factors to favor Carlos without simply being “hatred” of Novak.

But again, let’s retire the “age” factor, its getting old. ; )

You're far too generous. Make that 22 until otherwise notified.

 

[Jelenafan]

I've been saying for years Roger hung on too long! His ego just wouldnt allow it! I first thought his Wimbledon win in 2012 was a good time, then after 2017, but again, he just wouldn't retire and he's paid for it! It really wasn't worth those 3 extra majors! He's now a firm #3 all time! If he had left a couple years earlier, we could have utilized the "what if" years down the line! IMO he hurt his legacy permanently giving Nadovic the pedestal he used to share with Nadal! He really messed up w/ a losing record to both of them!

Don’t you think retirement is extremely personal? Someone doesn’t retire because of their legacy vis-a-vis Opponent XYZ. Look at Barty, she was mentally burned out at age 25 & retired and it was “right” for her, legacy be damned.-

Pete Sampras retired on a high ( 2002 5th USO) but later expressed regret he didn't give Wimbledon one last go.

Serena tried to get that last #24 Slam until she visibly was no longer physically able to hang with the younger players players. Hardly think her legacy was diminished.

Personally, IMO Federer knew it was probaly over at the time he elected to do the last surgery. For all we know Rafa may know his chances coming back from this hip surgery are slim, also.

No retirement timing is perfect but regrets are just part & parcel of living.

OTOH the totally misunderstood early retirement was Borg’s in 1981, Borg himself has said he never intended to walk away permanently, just take a sabbatical. Unfortunately ITF politics contributed to his not returning as planned & maybe by then Borg was too burned out to care enough anymore.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Novak has proven himself again and again and again. Really hard to take sides against him on clay. But, Carlitos is showing some mettle and that confidence at that age is really irreplaceable--a young Pete, a young Nadal (not so much Nole or even Roger until 22 by way of comparison) had that swagger, that self-belief they were largely invincible. Alcaraz knows this is his time. Can he handle "the moment" against one of the greatest to ever play? It is a tall task and Novak is a known quantity--nobody is going to blow him out and particularly not a young whippersnapper! LOL. It should be riveting stuff from the first service either way.

Carlitos game has matured at the level Pete's did around the same age. It took Rafa, Roger and Novak some time to get there meaning before they completely mastered all the strokes. Does this means that Carlitos is more talented than those 4? F#c# No but it means that he has reach the peak of his talent at a younger age.

 

[El Dude]

Carlitos game has matured at the level Pete's did around the same age. It took Rafa, Roger and Novak some time to get there meaning before they completely mastered all the strokes. Does this means that Carlitos is more talented than those 4? F#c# No but it means that he has reach the peak of his talent at a younger age.

You think Carlos is already at his best? I'd like to think that he still has some room to grow, but I haven't watched him as much as many. I do agree that he's incredibly polished for someone his age, and is closer to his peak level than, say, Holger Rune is.

Of course we won't know for some years, of course. I know I may over-use Elo, but it may prove useful for giving a rough sense of when a player was at their very best. Here's the age different top players reached their peak Elo (minimum 2300 Elo):

33: Rosewall (6/68)
32: Ashe (3/76)
31: Laver (9/69)
30: Nastase (9/76), Ferrer (2/13), Okker (4/74)
29: Murray (11/16)
28: Novak (1/16)
27: Nadal (9/13), Newcombe (8/71)
26: McEnroe (4/85), Connors (10/78), Lendl (3/86), Smith (5/73)
25: Federer (3/07), Vilas (12/77), Agassi (9/95), Gottfried (3/77), Medvedev (1/22)
24: Borg (7/80), Wilander (10/88), Gerulaitis (6/79), Zverev (11/21)
23: Roche (3/69)
22: Sampras (5/94), Edberg (11/90)
21: Becker (11/89), Courier (6/92)
20: Del Potro (9/09)

Obviously Medvedev and Zverev aren't done and have a chance of reaching a new peak; Medvedev is currently at 2287, not far from his peak of 2316 so could surpass it with a strong second half of the year at the age of 27. And Rosewall and Laver might have had higher Elos before the Open Era. And of course Ashe is an outlier, with that excellent run towards the end of his career.

But as you can see, the bulk of players peak in the age 24-26 range, with a wider range of 21-30 that encapsulates everyone but a single outlier on either side (Ashe and Del Potro). Only Del Potro peaked at age 20 - and that is probably due to his injury-plagued career. The next four were all early bloomers, like Alcaraz, but even Borg and Wilander didn't peak until age 24, and Elo says Rafa was at his very best in 2013 (which I agree with).

Among other top players who peaked at 21 or younger, Ivanisevic, Hewitt and Roddick peaked at 21. Kent Carlsson peaked at 20, but was on a lower level. Andrei Medvedev peaked at age 19, but he was more of a second tier guy.

The point being, Alcaraz almost certainly has another octave. He could peak in the next year or two, but probably isn't there yet.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Tennis Abstract has Rafael Nadal's peak ELO as Madrid 2009: http://tennisabstract.com/reports/atp_elo_ratings.html

It also has Carlos Alcaraz's peak ELO as 2022 RG, though that should be changing soon.

 

[El Dude]

Tennis Abstract has Rafael Nadal's peak ELO as Madrid 2009: http://tennisabstract.com/reports/atp_elo_ratings.html

It also has Carlos Alcaraz's peak ELO as 2022 RG, though that should be changing soon.

Yeah, they use a different formula than Ultimate Tennis Statistics, which is what I use.

 

[the AntiPusher]

You think Carlos is already at his best? I'd like to think that he still has some room to grow, but I haven't watched him as much as many. I do agree that he's incredibly polished for someone his age, and is closer to his peak level than, say, Holger Rune is.

Of course we won't know for some years, of course. I know I may over-use Elo, but it may prove useful for giving a rough sense of when a player was at their very best. Here's the age different top players reached their peak Elo (minimum 2300 Elo):

33: Rosewall (6/68)
32: Ashe (3/76)
31: Laver (9/69)
30: Nastase (9/76), Ferrer (2/13), Okker (4/74)
29: Murray (11/16)
28: Novak (1/16)
27: Nadal (9/13), Newcombe (8/71)
26: McEnroe (4/85), Connors (10/78), Lendl (3/86), Smith (5/73)
25: Federer (3/07), Vilas (12/77), Agassi (9/95), Gottfried (3/77), Medvedev (1/22)
24: Borg (7/80), Wilander (10/88), Gerulaitis (6/79), Zverev (11/21)
23: Roche (3/69)
22: Sampras (5/94), Edberg (11/90)
21: Becker (11/89), Courier (6/92)
20: Del Potro (9/09)

Obviously Medvedev and Zverev aren't done and have a chance of reaching a new peak; Medvedev is currently at 2287, not far from his peak of 2316 so could surpass it with a strong second half of the year at the age of 27. And Rosewall and Laver might have had higher Elos before the Open Era. And of course Ashe is an outlier, with that excellent run towards the end of his career.

But as you can see, the bulk of players peak in the age 24-26 range, with a wider range of 21-30 that encapsulates everyone but a single outlier on either side (Ashe and Del Potro). Only Del Potro peaked at age 20 - and that is probably due to his injury-plagued career. The next four were all early bloomers, like Alcaraz, but even Borg and Wilander didn't peak until age 24, and Elo says Rafa was at his very best in 2013 (which I agree with).

Among other top players who peaked at 21 or younger, Ivanisevic, Hewitt and Roddick peaked at 21. Kent Carlsson peaked at 20, but was on a lower level. Andrei Medvedev peaked at age 19, but he was more of a second tier guy.

The point being, Alcaraz almost certainly has another octave. He could peak in the next year or two, but probably isn't there yet.

You think Carlos is already at his best? I'd like to think that he still has some room to grow, but I haven't watched him as much as many. I do agree that he's incredibly polished for someone his age, and is closer to his peak level than, say, Holger Rune is.

Of course we won't know for some years, of course. I know I may over-use Elo, but it may prove useful for giving a rough sense of when a player was at their very best. Here's the age different top players reached their peak Elo (minimum 2300 Elo):

33: Rosewall (6/68)
32: Ashe (3/76)
31: Laver (9/69)
30: Nastase (9/76), Ferrer (2/13), Okker (4/74)
29: Murray (11/16)
28: Novak (1/16)
27: Nadal (9/13), Newcombe (8/71)
26: McEnroe (4/85), Connors (10/78), Lendl (3/86), Smith (5/73)
25: Federer (3/07), Vilas (12/77), Agassi (9/95), Gottfried (3/77), Medvedev (1/22)
24: Borg (7/80), Wilander (10/88), Gerulaitis (6/79), Zverev (11/21)
23: Roche (3/69)
22: Sampras (5/94), Edberg (11/90)
21: Becker (11/89), Courier (6/92)
20: Del Potro (9/09)

Obviously Medvedev and Zverev aren't done and have a chance of reaching a new peak; Medvedev is currently at 2287, not far from his peak of 2316 so could surpass it with a strong second half of the year at the age of 27. And Rosewall and Laver might have had higher Elos before the Open Era. And of course Ashe is an outlier, with that excellent run towards the end of his career.

But as you can see, the bulk of players peak in the age 24-26 range, with a wider range of 21-30 that encapsulates everyone but a single outlier on either side (Ashe and Del Potro). Only Del Potro peaked at age 20 - and that is probably due to his injury-plagued career. The next four were all early bloomers, like Alcaraz, but even Borg and Wilander didn't peak until age 24, and Elo says Rafa was at his very best in 2013 (which I agree with).

Among other top players who peaked at 21 or younger, Ivanisevic, Hewitt and Roddick peaked at 21. Kent Carlsson peaked at 20, but was on a lower level. Andrei Medvedev peaked at age 19, but he was more of a second tier guy.

The point being, Alcaraz almost certainly has another octave. He could peak in the next year or two, but probably isn't there yet.

Great Post @El Dude El Dude.. Excellent stats.. Let's continue to keep our eyes on Holger who's game should transfer to grass very nicely. I think once he learns to come in behind his serve he is going to be able to raise his level to where he can consistently compete on the 2nd weekend of a GS fortnight. His talent is SPECIAL like Kyrgios but not the same zipcode if you know what I mean.

 

[El Dude]

Great Post @El Dude El Dude.. Excellent stats.. Let's continue to keep our eyes on Holger who's game should transfer to grass very nicely. I think once he learns to come in behind his serve he is going to be able to raise his level to where he can consistently compete on the 2nd weekend of a GS fortnight. His talent is SPECIAL like Kyrgios but not the same zipcode if you know what I mean.

Yes, agreed. I've felt for awhile that Rune could have a sneaky high upside - maybe even higher than Alcaraz's. But he's less likely to reach it, whereas Alcaraz seems like a lock for a spot in the top 3 for the next decade - barring injury, of course.

The next 5-10 years may involve different players rising to peaks, with Alcaraz being a steady high plateau that different players have to meet to win a big one. Meaning, Alcaraz will define the era, even if one or two others have periods of time that are even higher. Just speculating, of course.

 

[Moxie]

Well, are you claiming that Novak is declining because of age, so you want him to retire? Because if he continues to play on the tour nobody is going to give him a senior pass discount.

I honestly don't know where he was going with that "hypocrisy" business, either. Everyone on here acknowledges the age difference. And anyone who used to complain about "geriatric Fed" losing to Novak no longer posts here.

It was annoying when Federer fans used the age excuse and its embarrassing if you start using it with Novak.

Age is a factor, there's no denying that. I just don't know what @Fiero425 is complaining about.

Im giving Carlos the edge on this match and that’s not a slight on Novak ( probably would give Novak the edge on grass and H/C would be a tossup) . One reason I’m doing so is because the surface is red clay, and Carlitos has won 2 red clay tournies as a warmup to Roland Garros and his form has been very good and he hasn't been over extended physically which is a factor. His legs should be fresh which is a scary proposition. The biggest leap forward is the Alcatraz serve, at IW last year it was consistently attackable but this year he's hitting his spots more & mixing it up more. I like the attack he has shown on the clay, and he's closing points off brutally.

In a weird way he plays The red clay aggressively as a hard court but unlike everyone else who attempts to do it, its not to compensate for chinks in his game (compare with practically every American who tries to do that at the FO) He can grind it out if he has to because he looks supremely conditioned, and usually Novak has a huge edge on younger opponents who cannot hang.

Just as in the NBA Kareem’s sky hook was nigh indefensible, i think the Alcaraz drop shop is getting close to that point. Nobody else tees off on a FH with such power to then feather the next FH with a buttery “just there” dropshot from any position in the court, even from behind the baseline. Other players seem to have a split second when they decide but with Carlos it’s almost instinctual & free flowing, and free flowing is not something i usually connect with drop shots. It has to drive his opponents insane and if any surface is drop shot heaven it is red clay. Once again he doesn’t do it to compensate for lack of power ( see many French players) or exhausted in a rally ( see many many players) but as an offensive tool in his arsenal.

Excellent assessment of Carlos's chances in match tomorrow.

 

[Moxie]

You think Carlos is already at his best? I'd like to think that he still has some room to grow, but I haven't watched him as much as many. I do agree that he's incredibly polished for someone his age, and is closer to his peak level than, say, Holger Rune is.

I agree with you that Alcaraz has room to improve. Aside from anything else, he's only just turned 20. He's got a big arsenal, already, but he's so young. I'm not sure it's a good guess to say he's closer to his peak than Rune is, but that's a scary thought. Rune does still have a lot to work on, even though his ceiling seems high: mentality and fitness being the first issues.