Roger's Quest for #1 (and Rafa's QF exit implications)

[Moxie]

Roger's earned the benefit of the doubt on his track record, in terms of taking care of his body and knowing what is best. There was Canada last year, but how often does that happen?

I've also said to trust him and his team, but folks here have been against Rotterdam, and they weren't wrong about Montreal, in retrospect. What if, as I suggested above, Roger is getting impatient with his biological clock and forcing the issue? Tell me honestly: are you in favor of him playing Rotterdam, in terms of his approach to this year?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

It's fairly clear that Rafa having YE#1 oldest bothers you guys, since Roger is the Old Man of tennis. You'll just gigolo all the records, no matter the cost? Both his weeks at #1 and consecutive weeks at #1 have to be safe for some long time. But I get it: even one week at #1 now, and he's the oldest #1, at least over Andre. I find it strange that you're gaming for it so hard right now. With the point spread between Rafa and Roger at the top, it seems just a matter of time. Do you really think it's wise for him to push it so hard immediately?

Yes, unlike Darthfed I am completely in favor of Roger playing Rotterdam. This is because of two reasons.

1. There is no slam in the vicinity to mess up unlike last year.
2. It adds a safety net. If for some reason, Roger gets upset, he can still take another shot at #1 in Dubai.
On the other hand, if he does not play Rotterdam and plays only Dubai, if he gets upset in Dubai the
#1 may not materialize at all considering he is defending the titles in both IW and M.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Roger's earned the benefit of the doubt on his track record, in terms of taking care of his body and knowing what is best. There was Canada last year, but how often does that happen?

It happens every year.

 

[Moxie]

Yes, unlike Darthfed I am completely in favor of Roger playing Rotterdam. This is because of two reasons.

1. There is no slam in the vicinity to mess up unlike last year.
2. It adds a safety net. If for some reason, Roger gets upset, he can still take another shot at #1 in Dubai.
On the other hand, if he does not play Rotterdam and plays only Dubai, if he gets upset in Dubai the
#1 may not materialize at all considering he is defending the titles in both IW and M.

That's all clear. But you're still pushing him hard for the #1. I realize it's tantalizingly close, but, if he weren't that close, would you have him playing Rotterdam? I'm guessing no.

 

[El Dude]

I've also said to trust him and his team, but folks here have been against Rotterdam, and they weren't wrong about Montreal, in retrospect. What if, as I suggested above, Roger is getting impatient with his biological clock and forcing the issue? Tell me honestly: are you in favor of him playing Rotterdam, in terms of his approach to this year?

I think I said up-thread that I hope he plays it but don't think he will. Glad I was wrong.

His main goal is obviously winning more Slams. Does playing Rotterdam impact whether or not he'll play those Slams? I don't think so.

This situation is very different from Montreal, because that was right before the USO. The French Open isn't for three and a half months, and we don't know if he'll play. Rotterdam and the #1 ranking is relatively low-hanging fruit; even if he doesn't reach the final, it increases his chances of getting the #1 ranking at Dubai to virtually definite.

I say, why not? Being the oldest #1 is a pretty nice accomplishment.

What will be tricky is clay. If he plays 2-3 clay tournaments, he has a real shot at YE1, but also possibly decreases his chances of winning Wimbledon. Would he risk that? We shall see.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

That's all clear. But you're still pushing him hard for the #1. I realize it's tantalizingly close, but, if he weren't that close, would you have him playing Rotterdam? I'm guessing no.

See my post #4 in Roger's schedule for 2018 thread. I was pushing Roger to play Rotterdam as early as Nov. 17, 2017.

 

[Moxie]

I think I said up-thread that I hope he plays it but don't think he will. Glad I was wrong.

His main goal is obviously winning more Slams. Does playing Rotterdam impact whether or not he'll play those Slams? I don't think so.

This situation is very different from Montreal, because that was right before the USO. The French Open isn't for three and a half months, and we don't know if he'll play. Rotterdam and the #1 ranking is relatively low-hanging fruit; even if he doesn't reach the final, it increases his chances of getting the #1 ranking at Dubai to virtually definite.

I say, why not? Being the oldest #1 is a pretty nice accomplishment.

What will be tricky is clay. If he plays 2-3 clay tournaments, he has a real shot at YE1, but also possibly decreases his chances of winning Wimbledon. Would he risk that? We shall see.

It get the point that he's far away from the next Slams, but he's really close to the most recent one, and he did go 5 in the final. But, whatever...I hope it goes well for him. I agree that the clay will be a big question. He'll see how the next month+ goes. Maybe better to press on HCs and leave off clay, or at least until the latter tournaments.

 

[Moxie]

See my post #4 in Roger's schedule for 2018 thread. I was pushing Roger to play Rotterdam as early as Nov. 17, 2017.

I know you were, but not many others were in line with that. You have said, though, that it's a tough field.

 

[El Dude]

Here's a recap of the point situation.

NOW: Rafa 9760, Roger 9605 (Rafa +155)

Rotterdam (Feb 12): Neither played last year, so no points to defend. If Roger reaches the SF he gets 180 points and is ATP #1 on Feb 19 (+25 points over Rafa). If he reaches the final he's +145, if he wins it he's +345. He'd be #1 at least for two weeks, until the week after Acapulco/Dubai - and maybe longer.

Acapulco/Dubai (Feb 26): Rafa loses 300 points, while Roger loses 45. If Roger wasn't to play Rotterdam, that would put them at 9460 Rafa, 9560 Roger - with Roger up by 100 points. But Roger is playing Rotterdam, so any points there will only add to his lead. He could be anywhere from 120 to 600 points ahead. In other words, if he wins Rotterdam then Rafa can't retake #1 until Indian Wells.

Roger has to let Dubai know if he'll take a wildcard by Feb 19; the Rotterdam final is on the 18th. So I think his decision will be based upon how he feels on the night of his last match at Rotterdam, whether that is early or after the final.

 

[El Dude]

It get the point that he's far away from the next Slams, but he's really close to the most recent one, and he did go 5 in the final. But, whatever...I hope it goes well for him. I agree that the clay will be a big question. He'll see how the next month+ goes. Maybe better to press on HCs and leave off clay, or at least until the latter tournaments.

As I implied above, if I'm Roger I'm taking it tournament by tournament, even match by match - while also keeping his eye on the biggest prizes (Slams, especially Wimbledon and USO for him).

If he wins at Rotterdam and feels great, it might be tempting to go all in at Dubai, IW, and Miami, and hope to win at least two of them and possibly maintain his #1 ranking. If he finished Miami at #1 (unlikely, but possible), he could conceivably skip all of clay season without losing his #1 ranking. In fact, if he does well over the rest of hard season, he'll probably regain #1 at some point during clay without even playing.

 

[bajana]

Stupidity. And what are the chances he's practiced much if at all the last ten days since OZ? Just prepare for and play Dubai, better tournament for him anyways. Now he better not play Dubai too but if he crashes out early at Rotterdam I'm sure he will.

Already been reported that he's practiced 3 days before he and his team made the decision

 

[GameSetAndMath]

As I implied above, if I'm Roger I'm taking it tournament by tournament, even match by match - while also keeping his eye on the biggest prizes (Slams, especially Wimbledon and USO for him).

If he wins at Rotterdam and feels great, it might be tempting to go all in at Dubai, IW, and Miami, and hope to win at least two of them and possibly maintain his #1 ranking. If he finished Miami at #1 (unlikely, but possible), he could conceivably skip all of clay season without losing his #1 ranking. In fact, if he does well over the rest of hard season, he'll probably regain #1 at some point during clay without even playing.

To put any special effort in maintaining #1 is stupid idea. The thrill in #1 ranking now is just to get there. Once he gets there, I would want Roger to TOTALLY forget about ranking business until the USO is over.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here's a recap of the point situation.

NOW: Rafa 9760, Roger 9605 (Rafa +155)

Rotterdam (Feb 12): Neither played last year, so no points to defend. If Roger reaches the SF he gets 180 points and is ATP #1 on Feb 19 (+25 points over Rafa). If he reaches the final he's +145, if he wins it he's +345. He'd be #1 at least for two weeks, until the week after Acapulco/Dubai - and maybe longer.

Acapulco/Dubai (Feb 26): Rafa loses 300 points, while Roger loses 45. If Roger wasn't to play Rotterdam, that would put them at 9460 Rafa, 9560 Roger - with Roger up by 100 points. But Roger is playing Rotterdam, so any points there will only add to his lead. He could be anywhere from 120 to 600 points ahead. In other words, if he wins Rotterdam then Rafa can't retake #1 until Indian Wells.

Roger has to let Dubai know if he'll take a wildcard by Feb 19; the Rotterdam final is on the 18th. So I think his decision will be based upon how he feels on the night of his last match at Rotterdam, whether that is early or after the final.

No, No. Those kind of rules don't apply to Roger. Dubai folks will happily wait until the draw to give him a WC.

Rotterdam announcement came today, just five days before the tourney begins.

 

[Moxie]

You guys are like drug addicts. A lot is never enough. I'll be looking forward to the Rotterdam draw.

 

[Moxie]

Already been reported that he's practiced 3 days before he and his team made the decision

Oh, whew! Must be fine, then. I think that's what he laid in before Montreal. B-)

 

[El Dude]

To put any special effort in maintaining #1 is stupid idea. The thrill in #1 ranking now is just to get there. Once he gets there, I would want Roger to TOTALLY forget about ranking business until the USO is over.

I didn't say anything about "special effort in maintaining #1." Sitting out clay season is a lack of effort

 

[El Dude]

No, No. Those kind of rules don't apply to Roger. Dubai folks will happily wait until the draw to give him a WC.

Rotterdam announcement came today, just five days before the tourney begins.

Well, the article you linked above gave a date, so blame the writer.

 

[DarthFed]

Already been reported that he's practiced 3 days before he and his team made the decision

Well that's good at least. It means they were likely leaning towards playing this for at least a few days now. I still don't like it as playing Dubai is "letting it come to him", no extra, meaningless tournaments like this. The problem I see is that if he doesn't get #1 here he will play Dubai for it and then we are talking a lot of tennis if he plays IW and Miami and still wants to try his luck on clay this season.

 

[bajana]

Oh, whew! Must be fine, then. I think that's what he laid in before Montreal. B-)

Not sure if you're just being sarky here, but since he probably won't be playing until Wednesday, that gives him a clear additional 6 days of practice, and since he's never done the practice til you drop routine of at least one other player, I guess it will be enough - or to use your word "fine"

 

[bajana]

Well that's good at least. It means they were likely leaning towards playing this for at least a few days now. I still don't like it as playing Dubai is "letting it come to him", no extra, meaningless tournaments like this. The problem I see is that if he doesn't get #1 here he will play Dubai for it and then we are talking a lot of tennis if he plays IW and Miami and still wants to try his luck on clay this season.

The Rotterdam TD says he was contacted right after AO, and alerted there was interest in a WC, to be confirmed later after practice and assessment. The problem with Dubai was always going to be the time line between Dubai and the travel to get to the Exho.. As for trying his luck on clay this season, I'd be shocked if Fed went within a mile of a clay court