Realistic scenario how Djokovic can end his career with 18 slams

[Front242]

I don't like to predict anything like that, for superstitious reasons...this is what Robbie Koening says:

Robbie's one of the best commentators out there but to quote him:

"NO WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYYYY! THAT'S RIDICULOUS!"

 

[britbox]

I must say, some of these commentators give out slams like sweets. Very fickle.

 

[Front242]

I must say, some of these commentators give out slams like sweets. Very fickle.

3 a year is totally not happening. Robbie's been smoking a bit too much of the good stuff methinks.

 

[Billie]

Well I wouldn't laugh so hard, just in case. You probably didn't give Nole 11 majors in 2011, but here we are. We'll see. I don't know what Robbie is smoking, but something ATP approved...methinks.

 

[TMF]

When Federer was winning slams during his prime, some people were thinking that he could end up with 20+ slams. But that never happened, because it only takes a slight in decline can stop a player from winning. I can see the same pattern here for Nole, his current form say he can win 18 slams, but eventually he will show down and will find it difficult to win. Statistically, player in his 30 don't win slams like in his 20s. Assuming if Noles get 3 more slam(big if) to end with 14 by the time he's 30, it's a tall order to win another 4 slams to reach 18.

 

[Denis]

When Federer was winning slams during his prime, some people were thinking that he could end up with 20+ slams. But that never happened, because it only takes a slight in decline can stop a player from winning. I can see the same pattern here for Nole, his current form say he can win 18 slams, but eventually he will show down and will find it difficult to win. Statistically, player in his 30 don't win slams like in his 20s. Assuming if Noles get 3 more slam(big if) to end with 14 by the time he's 30, it's a tall order to win another 4 slams to reach 18.

It didn't take a slight decline for Federer to stop winning, it took Nadal and Djokovic to stop Federer from winning. Djokovic owns these two now.

 

[Front242]

It didn't take a slight decline for Federer to stop winning, it took Nadal and Djokovic to stop Federer from winning. Djokovic owns these two now.

Federer is 34. Just a reminder since he only had a losing h2h since this year's AO and it took till he got old before this happened. Not exactly ownage there since 34 year old Roger beat him 3 times last year. With Nadal it's a different story, he clearly has no hope of beating Novak anymore imo.

 

[DarthFed]

It didn't take a slight decline for Federer to stop winning, it took Nadal and Djokovic to stop Federer from winning. Djokovic owns these two now.

Just delusional. Yeah that 34 year old currently ranked behind Murray and losing at slams badly to guys like Stan, Seppi, Gulbis, Stakhovsky, and Robredo in recent years is playing as well as ever. Talk about fanboy stuff

 

[Billie]

Just delusional. Yeah that 34 year old currently ranked behind Murray and losing at slams badly to guys like Stan, Seppi, Gulbis, Stakhovsky, and Robredo in recent years is playing as well as ever. Talk about fanboy stuff

I don't think Denis meant just last year. But post 2009, the ATP was mainly ruled by Rafa and Nole. 1 major for Federer during that time in 2012, where there were 4 different major winners. Can't be that Federer was old all this time. Without Rafa and Nole I think that Federer would have won a lot more majors than he had.

 

[Billie]

The fact is that Nole already did better than Rafa and Federer at the same age. Nobody said it would be easy, but that it is so impossible and to mock a respectful tennis commentator for expressing his opinion, I just don't understand that.

Whoever was predicting 20 slams for Federer, I don't know, it wasn't me. It was people's own fault to have underestimated Rafa, Nole and Andy at that time. I am not underestimating anybody, on the contrary I feel that anything can happen on any given day and any good player can beat even the best in the world. But I feel that Nole is in good position to play well for another 2-3 years, the most important thing is that he needs to stay healthy.

I am not greedy, I just want him to win FO this year. I don't expect him to make every final in all tournaments that he plays. Just to plan to peak at the right time.

 

[DarthFed]

I don't think Denis meant just last year. But post 2009, the ATP was mainly ruled by Rafa and Nole. 1 major for Federer during that time in 2012, where there were 4 different major winners. Can't be that Federer was old all this time. Without Rafa and Nole I think that Federer would have won a lot more majors than he had.

Roger won AO in 2010 and then his game fell off a cliff. He had a big resurgence in 2012 winning a slam and getting back to #1 at age 31 while Nole and Rafa were 25 and 26. But Roger wasn't going to be able to maintain that level for long. Now he is just good not great. Some people are amazed at his level for his age but I figured he'd be at least this good if not better. Some aspects of his game fell off a lot worse than they should have and that's why he hasn't done much since 2012.

It wasn't just being old for an elite tennis player (though 29 IS old for top guys) it's that he also had all the big records. Nole is trying to carve out his legacy while Roger already did as soon as he won #15 at Wimbledon 2009.

 

[Denis]

Roger won AO in 2010 and then his game fell off a cliff. He had a big resurgence in 2012 winning a slam and getting back to #1 at age 31 while Nole and Rafa were 25 and 26. But Roger wasn't going to be able to maintain that level for long. Now he is just good not great. Some people are amazed at his level for his age but I figured he'd be at least this good if not better. Some aspects of his game fell off a lot worse than they should have and that's why he hasn't done much since 2012.

It wasn't just being old for an elite tennis player (though 29 IS old for top guys) it's that he also had all the big records. Nole is trying to carve out his legacy while Roger already did as soon as he won #15 at Wimbledon 2009.

You equate game with results, without taking the game of others into consideration. It's one dimensional based on a fed fan perspective only. He was fine during 2010-2012, two other players just happened to be better.

 

[DarthFed]

From 2010 - 2012 he lost in QF of slams to Berdych twice, Soderling once, Tsonga once (after being up two sets to 0 at Wimbledon) and Nole at 2010 USO semis before he was a great player. And this was after 18 of 19 slam finals and 23 straight semifinals. Your theory really has no legs to walk on.

 

[Denis]

From 2010 - 2012 he lost in QF of slams to Berdych twice, Soderling once, Tsonga once (after being up two sets to 0 at Wimbledon) and Nole at 2010 USO semis before he was a great player. And this was after 18 of 19 slam finals and 23 straight semifinals. Your theory really has no legs to walk on.

Ah, it was that bad. I thought 2010 was better for him for some reason. He did lose 6 times during that stretch to Djokovic and Nadal at Slams. That's not insignificant over 12 Slams (of which he won 2). So 4 upsets basically.

 

[Billie]

From 2010 - 2012 he lost in QF of slams to Berdych twice, Soderling once, Tsonga once (after being up two sets to 0 at Wimbledon) and Nole at 2010 USO semis before he was a great player. And this was after 18 of 19 slam finals and 23 straight semifinals. Your theory really has no legs to walk on.

I think it is your own fault if you thought at that time that Federer would never lose and that Rafa and Nole would not improve. We can dance around this forever, the fact is the other two improved hugely, Rafa especially on hard courts and Nole in all other regards. Some years can be more and some years can be less successful for players, but they go on. Fed had back issues in 2010, if I remember correctly, these things can hamper a player. Rafa, Andy, Nole, even though younger than Fed, have had their health issues or periods when they were not at their best.

I don't think you ever answered me this before: what do you imagine Fed's slam count could have been without Rafa and Nole in his path (all the way up to today)?

Also what do you think Fed's count would have been if Rafa and Nole had been the same age as Federer and in their prime at the same time?

 

[DarthFed]

I never thought Roger "wouldn't" lose or that the other two wouldn't improve. The signs were there even in 2008 and 2009 where he was still playing excellent tennis but had come down a bit from his blistering years of 2004-2007. I didn't think he'd be ranked #1 at the end of 2010, it was clear by then that Rafa would be more likely to dominate the tour than an aging player who had just broken the sport's biggest record and had twins the prior year. Now if you told me he'd only win one slam after Australian Open 2010 I'd have been very surprised/disappointed. A big part of my surprise would be that Nole became such a dominating player when there were no signs of that in 2009 and 2010. The other part is that Roger really has blown tons of opportunities. I think he should've done better throughout the 2008-2016 period as a whole.

If Rafa and Nole were not in his way Roger probably would've gotten bored awhile ago and may have already retired after winning 20+ slams.

If all three were the same age and in their primes at the same time it is easy, all three would have less grand slams and would look a whole lot less great than they do now. Roger certainly would not have 4 AO's and Nole would not have won a combined 5 at Wimbledon and USO. Rafa probably wouldn't have eeked out 5 off of clay IMO.

 

[TMF]

You also have to factor in Nole's conversion ratio at all the slam appearances, and once he gets to the final, what will be his win/loss record. Currently, Nole is 11-19 in the final, that's 57.9% rate. At that rate, for him to win 18 slams he would have to make some 14 more slam finals. That's a lot to ask for a player at 29. Keep in mind Federer and Nadal conversion ratio at the slam went down since 2010-present because they have passed their prime. We would expect Nole's conversion rate to go down once he's start to decline.

 

[Mastoor]

You don't have to worry about it @TMF because Trociki predicts 6 or 7 more years of domination for No1e.

59% rate is his career percentage, but more relevant is that he won 4 of last 5 slams, which makes 80%.

Then calculation is simple : 80% of next 24 slams in next 6 years of domination is 19 more slams for No1e with his 11 so far - that is 30 slams altogether.

 

[Moxie]

You don't have to worry about it @TMF because Trociki predicts 6 or 7 more years of domination for No1e.

59% rate is his career percentage, but more relevant is that he won 4 of last 5 slams, which makes 80%.

Then calculation is simple : 80% of next 24 slams in next 6 years of domination is 19 more slams for No1e with his 11 so far - that is 30 slams altogether.

That is not only blatantly relying on an interested party: Troicki...no one's idea of a tennis commentator, but also a hilarious manipulation of statistics. Mastoor, that was kind of outrageous, even for you.

 

[Denis]

That is not only blatantly relying on an interested party: Troicki...no one's idea of a tennis commentator, but also a hilarious manipulation of statistics. Mastoor, that was kind of outrageous, even for you.

Mastoor's sense of humor is not for everyone I guess.