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With Rafa's loss today, all of a sudden there's a real possibility he won't be able to repeat #1 this year. Novak has been flying up the ranks and, if he wins the US Open, will be well-situated to be #1 by year's end.
We'll have a better sense in a few days, but here are the current (after the Rafa-del Potro SF, but before Kei-Novak) Race to London Rankings:
1. 7480 Nadal
2. 5165 Djokovic (5645 if he wins SF, 6245 if he wins F)
3. 4910 Del Potro (5710 if he wins F)
4. 4800 Federer
5. 4365 Zverev
Remaining tournaments:
ATP Finals (up to 1500 points)
Two Masters (1000 pts): Shanghai, Paris
Four ATP 500 (although only two playable): Beijing/Tokyo; Vienna/Basel
Seven ATP 250 (although only three playable): St Petersburg, Metz, Chengdu, Shenzhen, Moscow, Stockholm, Antwerp
Or in order, with big titles in bold:
Sept 17: 250 - St Petersburg, Metz
Sept 24: 250 - Chengdu, Shenzhen
Oct 1: 500 - Beijing, Tokyo
Oct 8: 1000 - Shanghai
Oct 15: 250 - Moscow, Stockholm, Antwerp
Oct 22: 500 - Vienna, Basel
Oct 29: 1000 - Paris
Nov 12: 1500 - ATP Finals
Presumably most of the top players will play 1-2 ATP 500s, 1-2 Masters, and the WTF, for a maximum of 4500 points at stake at medium and big tournaments. Here is how the five players in the running generally play, or are projected to play:
NADAL: Depends upon how serious his injury is. Traditionally this is his weakest portion of the year. Last year he played and won Beijing, went out in the QF of Paris and then hung up his racket for the year.
DJOKOVIC: I think he'll play as much as he can, entering two ATP 500s, both Masters, and the WTF.
DEL POTRO: I think it depends upon if he wins the USO or not. If he does it will be hard not to eye the YE1, especially with the confidence of defeating Rafa and (presumably) Novak. So let's wait and see. Either way, he probably has a relatively full schedule.
FEDERER: His chances of YE1 are virtually none. He's 2,680 points behind Rafa. Even if Rafa is out for the year, he'd have to out-play by anything from 370 to 1450 points. Right now the best-case reasonable scenario is #3.
ZVEREV: No chance, really, not unless he sweeps the two Masters and Finals, and he'd still need to see Novak struggle.
My projected finish:
1. Djokovic
2. Nadal
3. Del Potro
4. Federer
5. Zverev
It probably is down to Rafa and Novak, and I think Novak pulls it off. If he loses to Kei, I might be singing a different tune, but he'd still have a chance: while 2315 behind Rafa is a lot to make up with 4500 points on the line, if Rafa isn't fully healthy he can do it.
We'll have a better sense in a few days, but here are the current (after the Rafa-del Potro SF, but before Kei-Novak) Race to London Rankings:
1. 7480 Nadal
2. 5165 Djokovic (5645 if he wins SF, 6245 if he wins F)
3. 4910 Del Potro (5710 if he wins F)
4. 4800 Federer
5. 4365 Zverev
Remaining tournaments:
ATP Finals (up to 1500 points)
Two Masters (1000 pts): Shanghai, Paris
Four ATP 500 (although only two playable): Beijing/Tokyo; Vienna/Basel
Seven ATP 250 (although only three playable): St Petersburg, Metz, Chengdu, Shenzhen, Moscow, Stockholm, Antwerp
Or in order, with big titles in bold:
Sept 17: 250 - St Petersburg, Metz
Sept 24: 250 - Chengdu, Shenzhen
Oct 1: 500 - Beijing, Tokyo
Oct 8: 1000 - Shanghai
Oct 15: 250 - Moscow, Stockholm, Antwerp
Oct 22: 500 - Vienna, Basel
Oct 29: 1000 - Paris
Nov 12: 1500 - ATP Finals
Presumably most of the top players will play 1-2 ATP 500s, 1-2 Masters, and the WTF, for a maximum of 4500 points at stake at medium and big tournaments. Here is how the five players in the running generally play, or are projected to play:
NADAL: Depends upon how serious his injury is. Traditionally this is his weakest portion of the year. Last year he played and won Beijing, went out in the QF of Paris and then hung up his racket for the year.
DJOKOVIC: I think he'll play as much as he can, entering two ATP 500s, both Masters, and the WTF.
DEL POTRO: I think it depends upon if he wins the USO or not. If he does it will be hard not to eye the YE1, especially with the confidence of defeating Rafa and (presumably) Novak. So let's wait and see. Either way, he probably has a relatively full schedule.
FEDERER: His chances of YE1 are virtually none. He's 2,680 points behind Rafa. Even if Rafa is out for the year, he'd have to out-play by anything from 370 to 1450 points. Right now the best-case reasonable scenario is #3.
ZVEREV: No chance, really, not unless he sweeps the two Masters and Finals, and he'd still need to see Novak struggle.
My projected finish:
1. Djokovic
2. Nadal
3. Del Potro
4. Federer
5. Zverev
It probably is down to Rafa and Novak, and I think Novak pulls it off. If he loses to Kei, I might be singing a different tune, but he'd still have a chance: while 2315 behind Rafa is a lot to make up with 4500 points on the line, if Rafa isn't fully healthy he can do it.
