Post-Draw USO Poll

[DarthFed]

Nasty draw for a struggling Novak but there are a couple things that could work in his favor. Del Po might not be 100% and if Berd reaches Murray he has a very good chance at an upset. Murray handled the wind much better than Tomas last year but I had the feeling it'd be a lot tougher in more calm conditions. If Novak has to go through an in form Del Po and then Murray I don't think he will reach the final. I don't think he would beat Murray period right now.

Nadal has a couple guys who can challenge him in his half but it's hard picturing anyone beating him. Roger's form, fitness and the fact he has no belief vs. Rafa means he isn't much of a threat if they meet in the QF. Isner and JJ would make Rafa worry but they aren't winning 3 sets either.

 

[ClayDeath]

huge opportunity for the clay warrior.

he is going to have to capitalize.


a chance for #13 is within sight.


it wont be easy but nothing ever is for the clay warrior. he has to work very hard for his wins.

 

[Srini]

I think its Rafa's time to get #13. In this form he can pretty much go through anyone but it would have been really tough if he had to go through both Murray and Djokovic. Draw made it somuch more easier. For him playing Roger in Quarters is perfect because the result is never in doubt but at the same time he gets to practice with an elite player, setting him up perfectly for later rounds.

And I am not looking forward to a Fedal match, not when Rafa is super hot and Roger is playing the way he is.

 

[ClayDeath]

nadal got a huge boost in his confidence from being able to snatch both montreal and cinci.

even in his prime he was not able to do that. but somehow it happened.

and now a beast has been reborn. and this beast smells blood.


I was just looking at the isner vs nadal cinci final highlights:

nadal is on the verge of finding his forehand of death again. that alone will give him a lot of confidence.

he will slowly figure out his backhand as well. when one wing is going well, it takes a little bit of pressure off the other wing.

 

[tented]

The qualifying rounds produce 16 qualifiers. If you look at last year's draw, sure enough there are 16 qualifiers. However, in this year's draw there are slots for 17. Is this because an extra spot was created by Fish (or someone else) withdrawing?

Also, does anyone know how the 17th person would be selected? It would have to be one of the 16 runners-up, right? So I guess the guy who won the most sets/games/points?

I realize most people will consider this to be a picayune concern, but I'm hoping someone has the answers anyway.

 

[tented]

Ryan Harrison has awful luck. Once again, he has to play a top seed in the first round - Rafa.

He has run into top guys in the first two rounds quite often over the last few years:

2013 AO - R64 = Djokovic
2012 USO - R64 = JMDP
2012 Wimbledon - R64 = Djokovic
2012 AO - R128 = Murray
2011 Wimbledon - R64 = Ferrer
2011 RG - R128 = Soderling (#5 seed)

 

[Johnsteinbeck]

oh dear lord - i love Daveed, but the Ferrer quarter is a joke, i'm sorry. chance to shine for JJ? who knows. probably not.

 

[Kieran]

oh dear lord - i love Daveed, but the Ferrer quarter is a joke, i'm sorry. chance to shine for JJ? who knows. probably not.

I think so. And the more experience JJ gets at this level, the greater his hunger will become...

 

[Front242]

I think its Rafa's time to get #13. In this form he can pretty much go through anyone but it would have been really tough if he had to go through both Murray and Djokovic. Draw made it somuch more easier. For him playing Roger in Quarters is perfect because the result is never in doubt but at the same time he gets to practice with an elite player, setting him up perfectly for later rounds.

And I am not looking forward to a Fedal match, not when Rafa is super hot and Roger is playing the way he is.

Before that Cincy match I'd agree but if that wasn't a once off performance then his current level is far from poor. He could just have easily have won that match in straight sets if he hadn't thrown in that muck service game at 4-4 in set 2. Also form changes from tournament to tournament and some peak during slams and some before. Impossible to tell form even from match to match. Any player can be super hot one day and flat as a pancake the next. Gulbis anyone lol? I actually thought that Cincy match between Fed and Nadal was a breath of fresh air given Roger's problems of late and if he continues playing well like that he'll have his chances against anyone. Just gotta hope he throws in less muck service games out of nowhere.

 

[Kieran]

Good post, Front - glad to see a Fedfan who's not downsizing too rapidly...

 

[shawnbm]

^ I have no doubt that Djokovic and Murray will come in more focussed than they were in the tune-up season. They're well-aware of when they need to peak.

I'll say this about Nadal, though: in 2010, he saw his chance at the USO looking good, and he leapt on it. (Federer had just lost in QFs at FO and Wimby, for the first times in years. Novak and Andy were not looking esp. good, at least until the tune-ups, and Del Potro, the defending champ, was not going to play.) Right now, riding a confidence high, and with a pretty good draw, he will be aware that, if he's ever going to win the USO again, it maybe had better be now. The opportunity will not be lost on him, and he, and Federer, are as opportunistic as they come.

When Fed won the FO in 2009 (aided by Solderling saga) and completed the career GS, after losing to Nadal 4 times in a row at the French Open (once in SF and thrice in finals), I, as well as most people, had the feeling that Nadal would suffer a similar ordeal of reaching the final multipltimes at USO and failing to finish the deal by completing his career GS due to USO becoming his holy grail. Also, keep in mind that by that time he has not even reached the final of USO in addition to him generally tapering off in the second half of the year. However, Nadal grabbed the USO, as Moxie pointed above in an opportunistic (i use this term in a positive way here) manner, while no one noticed. So, the media did not have long years to highlight Nadal's holy grail and create a drama out of it. Also, the pundits, big and small such as ourselves, did not get to look into our crystal balls and come up with wise predictions of, if and when Nadal will complete the career GS and have lengthy debates over it.

So, Nadal actually stole it when no one was looking. On the contrary Fed completed it under intense media spotlight caused by his prior multiple failures at FO and also by the additional pressure created by Nadal's loss (with a now or never feel to it). What a contrast in completion of two most recent CAREER GS by Men.

I found this to be an insightful post in trying to draw a contrast between how Federer and Nadal navigated their ways to the career slam. For Rafa, the big one was SW19 in 2008--you know he was feeling it when the champ came back from two sets down. But he held on and won.

 

[the AntiPusher]

oh dear lord - i love Daveed, but the Ferrer quarter is a joke, i'm sorry. chance to shine for JJ? who knows. probably not.

You have to think that the absence of JowillieTs may have help his quarter, IDK but this section is such a cup cake walk.. This is best opportunity for a grand slam noname such as Gulbis or whomever to finally break thru.. I doubt it will happen, Daveed will be there the final weekend

 

[Emma]

Federer can only play a set and half very well at this stage against the top guys and some other players.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The qualifying rounds produce 16 qualifiers. If you look at last year's draw, sure enough there are 16 qualifiers. However, in this year's draw there are slots for 17. Is this because an extra spot was created by Fish (or someone else) withdrawing?

Also, does anyone know how the 17th person would be selected? It would have to be one of the 16 runners-up, right? So I guess the guy who won the most sets/games/points?

I realize most people will consider this to be a picayune concern, but I'm hoping someone has the answers anyway.

In that case, the spot goes to one of the 16 runner ups at RANDOM. That is
why they are called LUCKY losers.

On a serious note, the reason why they do it that way is to prevent the collusion
attacks. Suppose players A and B are playing and suppose A has no chance of winning
the match and everything is in control of B. Then B could just throw away a set or thro
away more games and thus promote A's chances of placing in the main draw, if
the criteria of number of sets or number of games are used.

With one of the 16 runner ups being randomly chosen to be placed in the
main draw, the collusion attack is thwarted.

 

[sid]

I'm going with Murray to win the USO.Last year in the USA he did nothing in the Masters & went on to win the USO.I know this might not go down well.Nadal i don't think will win the USO after Winning 2 b2b Masters,that's a big ask & could be a step to far.I think other tennis players will peak,where Nadal could run out of gas.Sorry to all Nadal fans but that's how i see it this year.I don't think Murray's Draw is that bad,if Stan's backhand is working,who knows thay might meet.Stan to Tomas looks a harder section than Murray's & thay could be burnt out by then.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

If My guy is not going to play the final, then I would like a Rafa-Murray final. They have not played since Murray became a man , so to speak, and I am interested in seeing the dynamics of that match-up now, especially when they are both in form.

The qualifying tournament has some interesting results so far. Delbonis, the first seed , lost in the first round of the qualies 6-4, 6-2. The dude is ranked 57 and he had to play this and lost in the first round. Sad...There is a Miloslav Mecir, who lost to Go Soeda in the second round...any relation? Karlovic beat Golubev. Dancevic and Young are still in it, although I have no hope for D.Young at all.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

oh dear lord - i love Daveed, but the Ferrer quarter is a joke, i'm sorry. chance to shine for JJ? who knows. probably not.

I think so. And the more experience JJ gets at this level, the greater his hunger will become...

It would be fun watching Ferrer vs. JJ match. Little beast is very good at running
from left corner to right corner as many times as needed to win a point. But, JJ would
make him run forward and backward, with his game of hitting drop shots on every
alternate stroke.

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[GameSetAndMath]

The latest odds as per bet365.

Rafa --- 1.75
Djokovic --- 2.00
Murray --- 3.33
Federer --- 11.00
Del Potro --- 12.00

Fed fans, invest $100,000 on Fed and get a profit of more than a million dollars, if he wins.

Full odds, from multiple agencies.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/us-open/mens/mens-us-open/winner

p.s. There is a separate forum called ``Vegas@Frontier'' if you want to discuss
gambling aspects of tennis. However, I am posting this here to aid those people
(such as me), who have not voted in this poll yet.

 

[ClayDeath]

andy murray has just one vote and he is the defending champion.

he also just finished winning Wimbledon.

 

[Moxie]

The latest odds as per bet365.

Rafa --- 1.75
Djokovic --- 2.00
Murray --- 3.00
Federer --- 11.00
Del Potro --- 12.00

Fed fans, invest $100,000 on Fed and get a profit of million dollars extactly, if he wins.

Full odds, from multiple agencies.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/us-open/mens/mens-us-open/winner

p.s. There is a separate forum called ``Vegas@Frontier'' if you want to discuss
gambling aspects of tennis. However, I am posting this here to aid those people
(such as me), who have not voted in this poll yet.

I don't know much about betting odds, but it seems they've changed drastically since Roger's Cup and Cincy. I suppose that would be usual, but still, these betting odds people seem like fair-weather friends to me.