Novak's Place Among the All-Time Greats

[Denis]

Lol herios is having a field day with rafa's late misfortunes

I am just dumbfounded where is the belief coming from thinking that Rafa may come back where he once was. His misfortunes are mainly physical erosion and there is no remedy for that.
If he changes his tactics and strategy becoming an attacking player like Roger, yes, there will be significant improvement, but I don't think he will ever do that. He will insert some surprise appearances at the net as he already does, but those will always be opportunistic and not his main path to construct his points.

I'm with you herios, I think he is done too.

 

[DarthFed]

Lol herios is having a field day with rafa's late misfortunes

I am just dumbfounded where is the belief coming from thinking that Rafa may come back where he once was. His misfortunes are mainly physical erosion and there is no remedy for that.
If he changes his tactics and strategy becoming an attacking player like Roger, yes, there will be significant improvement, but I don't think he will ever do that. He will insert some surprise appearances at the net as he already does, but those will always be opportunistic and not his main path to construct his points.

I hate the bast'ad more than you but I'm dumbfounded that you think he will continue to be as awful as he was this year. God willing he continues to go down to the toilet but I think you're in for a rude surprise. I remember you thinking Roger would continue to play awful after 2013 for some reason. I expected better years more from him in 2014 and 2015 (as in a slam and/or YEC in 1 or both) and you figured he'd be out of the top 10. Well I hope you're right this time about Wafa.

 

[El Dude]

As "awful" as Rafa has been he's still #7 in the live rankings and has a chance of finishing as high as #5. Clearly that isn't up to his own standards, but if he can make some adjustments then I don't see why he can't return to the #2-4 range. Unless, of course, the physical erosion is so great that he truly is in a downward spiral.

To put it another way, while I don't think we'll ever see 2013 Rafa, we might see something better than 2015 Rafa.

 

[DarthFed]

There are many factors into a big dropoff like Rafa had in 2015 and Roger had in 2013. Only part of it is physical, a lot of it is mental (confidence issues, concentration in the big moments, even motivation perhaps).

Many people were concentrating on Roger's age and nagging back issues in 2013 while I feel that was only part of it. A big part of it was that Roger felt more content after the great year he had in 2012. His interview after losing to Tsonga in straights at the RG QF was telling. After a bad 2013 when everyone wrote him off the stage was set for him to be motivated to prove people wrong in 2014. Roger retooled parts of his game but you also see more fight from him now than 2013 and aside from the biggest matches he is digging in during the big moments. A similar stage is set for Rafa next year. If he does poorly next year he is probably done.

 

[Denis]

There are many factors into a big dropoff like Rafa had in 2015 and Roger had in 2013. Only part of it is physical, a lot of it is mental (confidence issues, concentration in the big moments, even motivation perhaps).

Many people were concentrating on Roger's age and nagging back issues in 2013 while I feel that was only part of it. A big part of it was that Roger felt more content after the great year he had in 2012. His interview after losing to Tsonga in straights at the RG QF was telling. After a bad 2013 when everyone wrote him off the stage was set for him to be motivated to prove people wrong in 2014. Roger retooled parts of his game but you also see more fight from him now than 2013 and aside from the biggest matches he is digging in during the big moments. A similar stage is set for Rafa next year. If he does poorly next year he is probably done.

I hope you're wrong...

 

[DarthFed]

So do I to put it mildly.

 

[Kirijax]

March: "If Rafa does poorly during the clay season he is probably done."

May: "If Rafa does poorly during the French Open he is probably done."

June: "If Rafa does poorly during the grass season he is probably done."

July: "If Rafa does poorly during the US Open Series he is probably done."

September: "If Rafa does poorly during the Davis Cup Group Playoffs he is probably done."

October: "If Rafa does poorly during the WTF he is probably done."

November: "If Rafa does poorly during the exhibition matches he is probably done."

December: "If Rafa does poorly during the off season he is probably done."

January: "If Rafa does poorly during the 2016 season he is probably done."

December 2018: "If Rafa does poorly during the clay Challenger Season he is probably done."



As for Djokovic, I would actually give him a 50-50 chance to pull off the Golden Slam next year. He looks that solid.

 

[herios]

As "awful" as Rafa has been he's still #7 in the live rankings and has a chance of finishing as high as #5. Clearly that isn't up to his own standards, but if he can make some adjustments then I don't see why he can't return to the #2-4 range. Unless, of course, the physical erosion is so great that he truly is in a downward spiral.

To put it another way, while I don't think we'll ever see 2013 Rafa, we might see something better than 2015 Rafa.

While he could go up to 2-4, he could also go even lower. Time will tell in which direction he will go. I can see him replacing David Ferrer, being a collector of the smaller clay events (250 and 500) with the occasional master finals and slam SF. As we saw, that was enough for David to maintain a top 8 position up to 32 years.
However David was a very good distance runner. That is where I am curious how Rafa will be going forward in comparison to David. How well his running ability will held up. This year I saw not one instance that fatigue played a factor.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

I think when it is all said and done we will have the clear picture but a top 5 is not out of the question. And as far as I am concerned, he is the best overall returner I have ever seen. I am still giving the edge to Roger in the "best BIG server returner" category.

 

[Denis]

I think when it is all said and done we will have the clear picture but a top 5 is not out of the question. And as far as I am concerned, he is the best overall returner I have ever seen. I am still giving the edge to Roger in the "best BIG server returner" category.

This is the main reason I took a liking for the guy, he reminded me of Agassi (my childhood favorite).

 

[El Dude]

While he could go up to 2-4, he could also go even lower. Time will tell in which direction he will go. I can see him replacing David Ferrer, being a collector of the smaller clay events (250 and 500) with the occasional master finals and slam SF. As we saw, that was enough for David to maintain a top 8 position up to 32 years.
However David was a very good distance runner. That is where I am curious how Rafa will be going forward in comparison to David. How well his running ability will held up. This year I saw not one instance that fatigue played a factor.

I can't see Rafa being content with that. It is one thing to be David Ferrer as David Ferrer, it is quite another to go from being Rafael Nadal to becoming David Ferrer.

If Rafa can't bounce back into the top 3 or 4, I think a more likely decline phase would be him minimizing his schedule around clay season for another couple years, but not doing a lot else.

 

[herios]

There are many factors into a big dropoff like Rafa had in 2015 and Roger had in 2013. Only part of it is physical, a lot of it is mental (confidence issues, concentration in the big moments, even motivation perhaps).

Many people were concentrating on Roger's age and nagging back issues in 2013 while I feel that was only part of it. A big part of it was that Roger felt more content after the great year he had in 2012. His interview after losing to Tsonga in straights at the RG QF was telling. After a bad 2013 when everyone wrote him off the stage was set for him to be motivated to prove people wrong in 2014. Roger retooled parts of his game but you also see more fight from him now than 2013 and aside from the biggest matches he is digging in during the big moments. A similar stage is set for Rafa next year. If he does poorly next year he is probably done.

You are right, I was wrong about Roger and I will admit it anytime. But the reason I misjudged him is the fact that I put too much weight to his age, when he took his dip in 2013. I did not realize how much the back injury combined with the change of racquet. Those two factors contributed essentially to his bad year.
Now, Rafa says he is healthy and he gave up on the racquet change. His situation is quite different. That is why I am circumspect about his rebound.

 

[El Dude]

Back to Novak, even after he drops a notch he really could continue winning a Slam or two into his 30s considering the field. I see him winning many more Slams post-28 than Roger did (only 2 so far). Roger's Slam titles dropped off so precipitously because two things happened: his slight decline from 2007-09 continued so that he reached a lower plateau in 2010, and during that time Rafa began his peak phase and Novak and Andy established themselves as elite players.

Even if Novak drops a bit in 2016 and going forward, if he can maintain a high level he can really rack up some Slams because there are no equivalent young elites coming up. Where Roger had Rafa, Novak and Andy, Novak has Kei, Milos, and Grigor. That's what I meant by Novak having it comparatively easy in his late 20s than Roger had it during the same period of time.

So if there are no surprises from the "Lost Generation" (players born 1989-93), and none of the young pups born 1994 and later blossoms early, then I could see Novak winning 6-8 Slams over the next three years. But of course it is probably unlikely that we won't at least see some surprises.

 

[Front242]

While he could go up to 2-4, he could also go even lower. Time will tell in which direction he will go. I can see him replacing David Ferrer, being a collector of the smaller clay events (250 and 500) with the occasional master finals and slam SF. As we saw, that was enough for David to maintain a top 8 position up to 32 years.
However David was a very good distance runner. That is where I am curious how Rafa will be going forward in comparison to David. How well his running ability will held up. This year I saw not one instance that fatigue played a factor.

I can't see Rafa being content with that. It is one thing to be David Ferrer as David Ferrer, it is quite another to go from being Rafael Nadal to becoming David Ferrer.

If Rafa can't bounce back into the top 3 or 4, I think a more likely decline phase would be him minimizing his schedule around clay season for another couple years, but not doing a lot else.

I'd love him to minimize his schedule around clay season and not do much else. He won how many big clay titles this year and that clay season earned him how many points? :snicker Sounds like a plan!

 

[GameSetAndMath]

GS This is the one mostly talked about in the other thread. It looks like if Rafa remains static, Novak will surely reach him at the very least even with a conservative estimate of 2 slams in 2016, 1 more in 2017 and 1 more sometime before his career ends.


Let us now consider some other aspects of Novak to consider.

# of WTF/YEC titles He is dangerously close to Roger and might reach and/or surpass him. Roger has 6 and Novak has 4 right now. If we give 2015 and 2016 WTF titles to Novak (which is highly probable), he would already equal Roger.

YE #1: Again, he is dangerously close. This was achieved only 5 times by Roger and 3 times by Rafa. Of course, Pete has 6. This year is Noak's 4th year ending #1. He is a shoe-in for 2016 and an almost shoe-in for 2017. So, it looks like Novak can surpass Fed and equal Pete (though not in consecutive years) in this regard.

Weeks at #1: This may be most difficult. He current has 164 weeks at #1. Add 16 more weeks to that as he is guaranteed to be #1 until next season starts and then it becomes 180. If he can remain #1 for two more years, which is difficult but not impossible, it becomes 290 and then he is very close to Roger.

It may be time to spike Novak's bread with some gluten. :devil

 

[DarthFed]

^ The first one on the horizon is YEC. I'd say Nole has a very good chance to at least equal Roger's record there as it is a dream court for him. Realistically Roger's best chance to keep that record is to somehow win it this year and it's tough to see anyone beating Nole there.

Year end #1, Nole should at least reach 5, but we know the landscape can change very fast. He is not a shoe-in for next year and he is very far from it in 2017 when he will be turning 30 years old.

Similar for week end #1. One thing for certain is barring injury he will be #1 for a very large part of 2016 as it would take a lot of tournaments for anyone to catch up to him with all the points he has.

Slams...well they already have a separate thread on that and that's the biggest one of them all. If he reaches 17 and beyond he will have aged better than anyone in any sport that I've seen except maybe, and I mean maybe Michael Jordan.

 

[Billie]

Hello Frontierers

Nole already equalled Fed's count of majors won after age 28 in only 4 months, just saying

 

[Kirijax]

Hello Frontierers

Nole already equalled Fed's count of majors won after age 28 in only 4 months, just saying

Long time no see Billie. Congrats on Djokovic's win. He's moving on up!

 

[Billie]

Hello Frontierers

Nole already equalled Fed's count of majors won after age 28 in only 4 months, just saying

Long time no see Billie. Congrats on Djokovic's win. He's moving on up!

Hi Kirijax! Thank you, I had a lot to do with his win

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Year end #1, Nole should at least reach 5, but we know the landscape can change very fast. He is not a shoe-in for next year and he is very far from it in 2017 when he will be turning 30 years old.

To finish year end #1, you have to be the consistent player throughout the year. You don't really have to win 3 GS or for that matter even 2 GS. Given that Novak has a steady and consistent game, I am more sure that he will equal or surpass Roger on this than him (Novak) surpassing Rafa in GS count.