Novak's Place Among the All-Time Greats

[El Dude]

First, congrats to Novak on his 10th Slam. I should probably do an article on this, but I thought I'd share this. The question is: where does Novak now rank among the all-time greats?

Earlier this year I came up with a simple system to rank all-time greats. I looked at two factors: Year-end #1 and #2 rankings and Slam wins and runner's up. I gave points like so:

Rankings
Year-end #1 (lone): 3 points
Year-end #1 (shared): 2 points
Year-end #2: 1 point

Slams
Amateur win: 2 points
Pro win: 2 points
Open Era win: 3 points
runner up (any): 1 point

It isn't a perfect system, but it is a nice quick and dirty way to rank the all-time greats. Please don't think of this as a definitive approach, just one possible lens to look through when trying to rank the all-time greats.

Anyhow, before the year Novak had 38 points and was tied with Andre Agassi at #13. Now that he's won 3 Slams, with one Runner-up and has secured the year-end #1, he has accrued 13 more points and has 51, which makes him jump past not only Agassi but McEnroe, Budge, Borg, Connors, and Lendl to #8.

Yup, that's right. In this ranking system, Novak is the 8th greatest player of all time and clearly he isn't done yet. Here are the top 15:

1. Federer 81
2. Rosewall 78
3. Laver 75
4t. Sampras 65
4t. Gonzales 65
6. Nadal 62
7. Tilden 60
8. Djokovic 51
9. Lendl 49
10t. Connors 47
10t. Borg 47
12. Budge 41
13. McEnroe 39
14. Agassi 38
15. Perry 37

So here's the thing. With another year like this one, he'll jump past Tilden and...Rafa Nadal. Now of course that assumes that Rafa has another "nothing" year in 2016, and it also assumes that Novak can equal this, his second career year. But I think even if he comes back to earth a bit next year (likely) and wins "only" two Slams and one runner-up, to go along with another year-end #1 ranking, he would finish with 61 points - just behind Rafa. Even if Rafa wins a Slam and gets 3-5 more points, Novak will be closing fast.

The point being, Novak has a really good chance of surpassing Rafa not after next year, but after 2017 or, at the latest, 2018. This assumes that Novak can maintain elite level for several more years and that Rafa will do no more than a mild resurgence. But the point is, it is almost inevitable that Novak will surpass Rafa - at least in this ranking system.

Novak also has a very good chance of passing Gonzales and Sampras. Depending upon how he ages he'll probably finish somewhere in the upper 60s to mid-70s. I don't think he can catch Roger, even if Roger never wins another Slam (which doesn't seem likely at this point), but Roger might gain several more points and finish in the mid-80s - a tall order for Novak to reach, given that he's 28. But he very well could finish his career among the four greatest ever...at least according to this system.

So yeah, Novak is pretty good.

 

[Fiero425]

This is dated Nov. '14 saved on one of my blogs:

Top 20 Greatest Players of All Time (Yet Another Take) - GOAT?

I was just looking at pre-ATP rankings for players and was surprised to see that players like Jack Kramer had finished (alone or tied) #1 six times. I decided to create a quick ranking system based upon 2 things to determine true greatness:

* Year-end #1 rankings: 3 points for solo; 2 points for shared
* Majors won: 2 points for pre-Open Era Grand or Pro Slams; 3 points for Open Era Slams

The Top 20 players of all time according to 1 system.

1. Federer 66
2. Laver 62
3. Rosewall 61
4. Sampras 60
5. Gonzales 56
6. Nadal 51
7. Tilden 48
8. Borg 42
9. Connors 39
10. Lendl 36
11t. Budge 34
11t. W Renshaw 34
13. McEnroe 33
14. Perry 31
15t. Kramer 30
15t. Djokovic 30
17. Agassi 27
18t. Vines 25
18t. Cochet 25
18t. Newcombe 25

1) Whatever you think of the exact order, I think it has the Top 10 players rightly in the Top 10. Novak has a chance of sneaking in there and edging Lendl out in another year or 2, but right now it works.

2) TBH, the accuracy of the next 10 gets decreasingly reliable as I didn’t research absolutely everyone. But I think the next 10 is mainly right, although maybe 1 or 2 players weren’t accounted for. It is really hard to research 19th century players. Also right off the edge of the list would be players like Stefan Edberg, Mats Wilander, Bobby Riggs, Roy Emerson, etc.

3) While many think Nadal has surpassed Sampras, this system likes Pete quite a bit more b/c of those year-end #1's.

4) This system rightly honors perhaps the most underrated historical great player, Pancho Gonzales, who is underrated b/c his peak was in the Pro Slam era and he only won 2 Grand Slams while winning 15 Pro Slams. Pancho was the best player of the 50s and finished #1 a record 8 times.

5) Yes, Federer's #1. Sorry Roger Haters, just about any system is going to place him as the GOAT or at least the greatest of the Open Era. Rafa may pass him, although according to this system Roger would have to remain stagnant (a distinct possibility) and Rafa would have to have 5 more Slam wins and/or year-end #1′s to tie him – a tall order, but possible. But for now I think Roger deserves his place.

Is this you as well? Since Nole has won 3 more MAJORS this season, he will definitely be moving up no matter who's calculating the numbers! lol!

 

[Fiero425]

I just can't get over this "GOLDEN AGE" of tennis with these great players dominating the majors and Masters 1000 events! We had anointed Sampras as the GOAT even without a FO final on his resume, but had acquired 14 GS titles; leading the way for the men! That all changed less than 10 years ago with ascension of Federer, Nadal, & Djokovic! They have each reached double digits and are still playing! They've won 3 majors in a season; Roger 3 X's, Nole twice, and Nadal in '13! They all lead the way in Masters 1000 titles and own most if not ALL of the records involving them! After all is said and done, it looks as if Federer will hold on as the GOAT for the foreseeable future with 17 GS titles! After Nole reaching 10 with this USO title, #2 on the list is up for grabs needing to pass Nadal and Sampras at 14 each! It's doable! We'll see! What a time to be a fan! ;-)

 

[atttomole]

I think that Djokovic can reach at least 16 slams. Given how solid his game is now, I think he can get another 3 in 2016. He looks like he is too good for everybody right now. Only the Staminal can make him uncomfortable.

 

[Fiero425]

From March '15:

***Top 20 Greatest Players of All Time (Yet another take) (active)*

Year-end #1 (sole): 3 pts
Year-end #1 (shared): 2 pts
Year-end runner up: 1 pt
Slam (Open Era): 3 pts
Slam (Amateur): 2 pts
Slam (Pro): 2 pts
Slam (Runner-up): 1 pt

1. Federer 79*
2. Rosewall 78
3. Laver 75
4t. Gonzales 65
4t. Sampras 65
6. Nadal 62*
7. Tilden 60
8t. Connors 49
8t. Lendl 49
10. Borg 47
11t. Budge 41
11t. Djokovic 41*
13. McEnroe 39
14. Agassi 38
15. Perry 37
16. Renshaw 36
17t. Larned 31
17t. Edberg 31
19t. Vines 30
19t. Wilander 30
21t. Wilding 29
21t. Cochet 29
23t. Kramer 28
23t. Newcombe 28
25t. L Doherty 27
25t. Riggs 27
25t. Emerson 27
28. Sedgman 26
29t. R Doherty 25
29t. Lacoste 25
29t. Becker 25
32. Segura 23
33. Vilas 21
34. Courier 20

Updated this list to reflect AO. ...Novak went from being tied w/ McEnroe to being tied w/ Connors and Renshaw and on the cusp of the top 10. Another Slam win puts him ahead of Lendl. I think he's got a good chance of passing at least Borg and Tilden before he's through. W/ a big year in 2015 or 2 pretty good years in 2015-16, Rafa could join Federer, Rosewall and Laver in a career Big 4 - a "Goat Quartet" (Goatet?).

Note that this system doesn't like Borg as some others. I really like how it has Connors and Lendl tied and so high - these 2 don't always get their due. The last 5-10 ranks are very sketchy and not very accurate in that there are a few players that I haven't calculated that might sneak in.

 

[Mile]

In this list, I would put all pre 80' out. That time, world wasn't such globalized like today. They even did not travel so much. Today, all the best World posses gather on one place instantly, that day... that was a bit different.

How about some from 1950-60... when was direct flight EU-Australia, or how many flight was there on the route. There was more done by ships than planes.

Its interesting fact, no one reconsider or doesn't think about it, a logistics !

 

[El Dude]

Fiero425, you're clogging the thread with past versions of the same list! Anyone coming in will be confused. The first one you posted was the first version. The second one added in year-end #2s and Slam runner's up. The one I posted is an updated version of the second one - same system, but updating Novak and Roger.

 

[Denis]

lol @ Fiero

I like the list E.D.

 

[Moose]

Novak's place in history? I think it is too early to say. But I think he has the potential to rival/pass Roger.

A couple of years ago, a lot of people thought Rafa would challenge/surpass Fed's 17 Slam titles. The way he looks now, I think Nadal is done winning Slams.

So it will be interesting to see if Novak is more Roger or Rafa. Roger is an athletic, crafty player. Rafa is a bull, who muscles and hustles his way to titles (I'm not saying he isn't a smart player, I'm saying my belief is his game is built more on his physicality).

Novak is smart and physical. Easily the best defender I have ever seen, and I've been watching tennis for the last 45 years. I am concerned about his body potentially betraying him, given how physical his game can be. At the same time, I think he could play his style of tennis, and win Slams, well into his mid-30s.

If he stays healthy, he can easily win 3 Slams each of the next two years. Roger is aging out, Rafa is just not at the top of his game, Murray just seems to have peaked, Stan can challenge, but I don't see him in the same league consistently. And there is no one who poses an immediate threat (though I am hoping Thiem and Coric keep stepping up).

Plus, Novak likes to play (and win) the Masters events. I'm pretty sure he will tie/pass Rafa next year with the most Masters 1000s as well.

If he stays healthy, Novak goes down in history in the same breath as Roger, Rosewall and Laver. With between 15-20 Slams.

 

[El Dude]

One thing Novak has going for him, but might also put a shadow on his record, is the weak field of younger players. Novak reached his peak in 2011 when Roger was past his prime (although still great), and while he had to contend with a peak Rafa for a few years, and Andy at his best, over the last two years--and presumably for a couple years going forward--there isn't as much top competition as there was in 2013 and before.

The point being, if Novak remains healthy and in peak form AND no one steps up to elite form AND Rafa doesn't regain his form, then Novak could really clean up for 2016-17. Novak fans will be pleased, but as a fan of tennis I really hope that someone steps up and challenges him - it would make for much more interesting tennis!

 

[dante1976]

Just take a look who for example "challenge" Fed for his first 10 slams

Federer first 10 slam wins:

Philippoussis 
Marat Safin 
Andy Roddick 
Lleyton Hewitt 
Andy Roddick 
Andre Agassi 
Marcos Baghdatis 
Rafael Nadal 
Andy Roddick 
Fernando González 

Djokovic first 10 slam wins:

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 
Andy Murray 
Rafael Nadal 
Rafael Nadal 
Rafael Nadal 
Andy Murray 
Roger Federer 
Andy Murray 
Roger Federer 
Roger Federer 

This list actually shows a lot about "weak eras"

 

[Denis]

Just take a look who for example "challenge" Fed for his first 10 slams

Federer first 10 slam wins:

Philippoussis 
Marat Safin 
Andy Roddick 
Lleyton Hewitt 
Andy Roddick 
Andre Agassi 
Marcos Baghdatis 
Rafael Nadal 
Andy Roddick 
Fernando González 

Djokovic first 10 slam wins:

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 
Andy Murray 
Rafael Nadal 
Rafael Nadal 
Rafael Nadal 
Andy Murray 
Roger Federer 
Andy Murray 
Roger Federer 
Roger Federer 

This list actually shows a lot about "weak eras"

Can I triple like this post?

 

[herios]

One thing Novak has going for him, but might also put a shadow on his record, is the weak field of younger players. Novak reached his peak in 2011 when Roger was past his prime (although still great), and while he had to contend with a peak Rafa for a few years, and Andy at his best, over the last two years--and presumably for a couple years going forward--there isn't as much top competition as there was in 2013 and before.

The point being, if Novak remains healthy and in peak form AND no one steps up to elite form AND Rafa doesn't regain his form, then Novak could really clean up for 2016-17. Novak fans will be pleased, but as a fan of tennis I really hope that someone steps up and challenges him - it would make for much more interesting tennis!

RG final was not interesting enough for you??:devil
I assume you liked that as opposed to Wimbledon and USO final

 

[DarthFed]

Just take a look who for example "challenge" Fed for his first 10 slams

Federer first 10 slam wins:

Philippoussis 
Marat Safin 
Andy Roddick 
Lleyton Hewitt 
Andy Roddick 
Andre Agassi 
Marcos Baghdatis 
Rafael Nadal 
Andy Roddick 
Fernando González 

Djokovic first 10 slam wins:

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 
Andy Murray 
Rafael Nadal 
Rafael Nadal 
Rafael Nadal 
Andy Murray 
Roger Federer 
Andy Murray 
Roger Federer 
Roger Federer 

This list actually shows a lot about "weak eras"

Geriatric Federer is being held as some enormous competition which is misleading. Aside from that you really just have Nadal and the semi-great Murray.

 

[Denis]

^ I can see that. But before Jo he did beat Roger in his prime in 2008. Same in 2011 at the US Open. Murray is still better than Federer's entire list with the exception of Safin, Nadal, and Agassi who was well on his way out.
So basically Novak wins this 7 - 2.

 

[DarthFed]

2011 Roger was already well past his prime. He did nothing that year aside from win YEC. Murray is barely better than Hewitt and Roddick. Anyways correct me if I'm wrong but a washed up 34 year old is Djoker's main competition right now.

 

[nehmeth]

Anyways correct me if I'm wrong but a washed up 34 year old is Djoker's main competition right now.

Darth, he's the freakin' Brett Favre of tennis! :snicker

 

[DarthFed]

^ So can we expect him to send some pics to Djokovic's wife?

 

[Mile]

2011 Roger was already well past his prime. He did nothing that year aside from win YEC. Murray is barely better than Hewitt and Roddick. Anyways correct me if I'm wrong but a washed up 34 year old is Djoker's main competition right now.

True, but pa'a is hiting hard. his game became more clever due to lack of physical shortage which with years. Something quite opposite what Rafa do (did). So old mans back is still OK, while Nadal destroyed his body. Playing with head is more important. But Djoker has both, head and the body, that few kilograms less gona have huge impact in Djokers benefit. No muscles, aerobic and light body.

 

[El Dude]

RG final was not interesting enough for you??:devil
I assume you liked that as opposed to Wimbledon and USO final

Well you may be surprised to find that I don't actually cheer against Novak or any player, except when they are playing Roger. Well, that's not entirely true - I generally like to see Andy and Rafa lose, but don't bear them any animosity.

When Roger isn't playing I tend to root for the under-dog, so yeah, I liked seeing Stan win Roland Garros. So the only reason I root against Novak is not because I don't like him, I actually do (except for when he goes all macho and thrusts into the air), but because he's the top-dog, and i like to see the underdog win.