Novak's 2014 spring offensive and the battle for Paris

[brokenshoelace]

I highly doubt Rafa plays those small South American clay tournaments next year. Nole won AO and Dubai but his results, aside from MC, USO and Wimbledon, were generally woeful the rest of the year until Fall. Semis at IW, 4th round Miami, 4th round Madrid, Quarter Rome, Semis at RG (not woeful there, but that was always the earliest he would lose) Semis in Canada, and quarters in Cincy). I don't picture him doing as terrible in most of those tournaments as he did this year. Meanwhile Rafa won IW, Toronto and Cincy which are huge surprises and carry as many points as 1.5 majors.

Nole will have a lot of opportunity to regain #1 by RG or USO next year even if he does lose to Nadal in the final of AO, which I don't think I'd bet on. Nole is a lot stronger at AO than USO where his resume is hardly great when you think about it.

I read over this the first time. You do realize he reached 4 straight finals at the US Open? 5 in total. Yes, he only won one. But 'hardly great'? That's a little harsh. It's probably his second best tournament after the AO of the slams of third best after the AO and the WTF.

I have to agree with this.

As I pointed out, Darth's standards are becoming ridiculous. Now if you don't want to refer to his resume at the US Open as "great" because he "only" won it once, that's fine. But "hardly great" is extremely harsh.

 

[Riotbeard]

So wait, does the season end right after RG? Because I'm pretty sure Nadal has 2000 points to gain at Wimbledon too. So saying "X amount of points" is the best Nadal can do is pretty selective when you decide to narrow it down to everything AFTER the US Open and BEFORE Wimbledon, while ignoring the up to 4000 points he can gain from those tournaments, while losing nothing. Oh and did I mention the 1000 he can gain in Miami?

Nadal does have a ton to defend, especially in the summer. I do expect Novak to wrestle away the number 1 ranking again at some point next year, especially since I don't expect Nadal to have quite the same insane North American summer. But, what you factor in just how many points he can gain from two majors, you'd realize that there's no reason to be so dismissive of those who rightly point out the points he can gain.

I think it's going to be quite a close battle.

PS: If I'm Nadal, I don't play the golden swing. I take time off after the Australian Open and just play IW and Miami.

I agree, I think it would be very short sighted for Rafa to go after Latin America.

 

[Denis]

So wait, does the season end right after RG? Because I'm pretty sure Nadal has 2000 points to gain at Wimbledon too. So saying "X amount of points" is the best Nadal can do is pretty selective when you decide to narrow it down to everything AFTER the US Open and BEFORE Wimbledon, while ignoring the up to 4000 points he can gain from those tournaments, while losing nothing. Oh and did I mention the 1000 he can gain in Miami?

Nadal does have a ton to defend, especially in the summer. I do expect Novak to wrestle away the number 1 ranking again at some point next year, especially since I don't expect Nadal to have quite the same insane North American summer. But, what you factor in just how many points he can gain from two majors, you'd realize that there's no reason to be so dismissive of those who rightly point out the points he can gain.

I think it's going to be quite a close battle.

PS: If I'm Nadal, I don't play the golden swing. I take time off after the Australian Open and just play IW and Miami.

BS, things are becoming a bit heated now. The OP was really not claiming anything about the rest of the season. Clearly, Wimbledon will be good to Nadal in terms of solidifying his ranking. I was only making a point as to when in my mind the no 1 spot might change hands and IMO it depends on a good spring campaign by Novak.

 

[huntingyou]

PS: If I'm Nadal, I don't play the golden swing. I take time off after the Australian Open and just play IW and Miami.

IW/Miami it's a death sentence for Rafa at this point of his career. There are always "issues" physically when he plays back to back slow as beach sand HC events just before the TOUGHEST part of the season for him.

Rafa has nothing to prove on hards and only much to lose. Outside of the AO to be quite honest (where he can make history and put another nail in the coffin for GOAT debate purpose).....Rafa doesn't need to do anything on hards besides showing up at the UO and spread out MS events. Yes, WTF would be nice but life it's tough.....Roger would like a Davis Cup and Olympic Gold as well but can't get them either.

If he has a brain, he would play Brazil and Acapulco and skip IW/Miami completly. If he has half a brain he would avoid one of the two like he did this year, I would prefer Miami just so I can see him in addition to it's the one missing from his CV.

 

[brokenshoelace]

PS: If I'm Nadal, I don't play the golden swing. I take time off after the Australian Open and just play IW and Miami.

IW/Miami it's a death sentence for Rafa at this point of his career. There are always "issues" physically when he plays back to back slow as beach sand HC events just before the TOUGHEST part of the season for him.

Rafa has nothing to prove on hards and only much to lose. Outside of the AO to be quite honest (where he can make history and put another nail in the coffin for GOAT debate purpose).....Rafa doesn't need to do anything on hards besides showing up at the UO and spread out MS events. Yes, WTF would be nice but life it's tough.....Roger would like a Davis Cup and Olympic Gold as well but can't get them either.

If he has a brain, he would play Brazil and Acapulco and skip IW/Miami completly. If he has half a brain he would avoid one of the two like he did this year, I would prefer Miami just so I can see him in addition to it's the one missing from his CV.

Skipping both IW and Miami is too extreme... No reason to be that overprotective. I understand why, but I just think don't think Rafa needs to become a part time player just yet.

 

[Didi]

As I pointed out, Darth's standards are becoming ridiculous. Now if you don't want to refer to his resume at the US Open as "great" because he "only" won it once, that's fine. But "hardly great" is extremely harsh.

To be fair to Darth, he's from Wisconsin and I got to know quite a lot of people from there when I was on vacation to attend a Packers Game in the famous Lambeau Field. For all the people and sports fan I talked to you are either a champion or a nobody. That attitude is not my cup of tea but it's the way it is and who can blame a city called title town. :grin:

 

[Riotbeard]

PS: If I'm Nadal, I don't play the golden swing. I take time off after the Australian Open and just play IW and Miami.

IW/Miami it's a death sentence for Rafa at this point of his career. There are always "issues" physically when he plays back to back slow as beach sand HC events just before the TOUGHEST part of the season for him.

Rafa has nothing to prove on hards and only much to lose. Outside of the AO to be quite honest (where he can make history and put another nail in the coffin for GOAT debate purpose).....Rafa doesn't need to do anything on hards besides showing up at the UO and spread out MS events. Yes, WTF would be nice but life it's tough.....Roger would like a Davis Cup and Olympic Gold as well but can't get them either.

If he has a brain, he would play Brazil and Acapulco and skip IW/Miami completly. If he has half a brain he would avoid one of the two like he did this year, I would prefer Miami just so I can see him in addition to it's the one missing from his CV.

Skipping both IW and Miami is a too extreme... No reason to be that overprotective. I understand why, but I just think don't think Rafa needs to become a part time player just yet.

Agreed. And I honestly find this kind of rafa fan refrain to be pretty ridiculous. The guy won more big hardcourt tournaments than clay this year. His knee is always going to be an issue, but the solution should be limiting non-essential play (like latin America) not skipping prominent hard court masters. Should he skip summer hards for post-Wimbledon European clay? Of course not. I would imagine 3-4 extra weeks of clay would be worse for his knees than one more week of hardcourts in the spring. It made sense to make his come back there. Less pressure, but he is back.

 

[Kieran]

In fairness, HuntingYou was disgusted when Rafa played IW last year and blames it for his Wimbledon defeat - if I'm not too far wrong - yet Rafa was The Man on hards this year and played everything after Wimbledon without strapping on his knees.

I'm not saying his knees are healed, but I am saying he can play hards successfully...

 

[huntingyou]

PS: If I'm Nadal, I don't play the golden swing. I take time off after the Australian Open and just play IW and Miami.

IW/Miami it's a death sentence for Rafa at this point of his career. There are always "issues" physically when he plays back to back slow as beach sand HC events just before the TOUGHEST part of the season for him.

Rafa has nothing to prove on hards and only much to lose. Outside of the AO to be quite honest (where he can make history and put another nail in the coffin for GOAT debate purpose).....Rafa doesn't need to do anything on hards besides showing up at the UO and spread out MS events. Yes, WTF would be nice but life it's tough.....Roger would like a Davis Cup and Olympic Gold as well but can't get them either.

If he has a brain, he would play Brazil and Acapulco and skip IW/Miami completly. If he has half a brain he would avoid one of the two like he did this year, I would prefer Miami just so I can see him in addition to it's the one missing from his CV.

Skipping both IW and Miami is too extreme... No reason to be that overprotective. I understand why, but I just think don't think Rafa needs to become a part time player just yet.

I never said part time player, he would be participating in the same number of events but instead of slave away at IW/Miami with a high probability of injury that will carry on to the clay season........he could just take Brazil and Acapulco. The big event that matters right after the AO it's RG when we are talking Rafa.

I didn't even mention SW19, obviously this tournament is not just a matter of ability but condition. IW/Miami followed by grueling clay season will lead to another big embarrassment in London and London trumps everything.

 

[huntingyou]

In fairness, HuntingYou was disgusted when Rafa played IW last year and blames it for his Wimbledon defeat - if I'm not too far wrong - yet Rafa was The Man on hards this year and played everything after Wimbledon without strapping on his knees.

I'm not saying his knees are healed, but I am saying he can play hards successfully...

Didn't say that, and it's not a matter of being successful on hards but scheduling wisely and being able to PEAK for the tournaments that count.

This is simple folks, after the AO the next slams is RG.....there are easy tournaments for Rafa on clay that he can dominate, get points and keep the confidence high while avoiding slow hards at IW/Miami. Is not like he needs another MS title and he will get more for sure on clay and maybe the summer HC season. I take those HC that are much faster with fewer matches than IW and Miami. Plus it makes sense because he would be trying to get ready for the UO.

 

[Front242]

Depends on the draw and nothing to do with playing IW/Miami and clay season imo. Sometimes you just meet a red hot opponent as Fed also did in Stakhovsky. Both Fed and Nadal could have won their matches if a few points had gone their way. They were both closely contested matches.

 

[huntingyou]

Depends on the draw and nothing to do with playing IW/Miami and clay season imo. Sometimes you just meet a red hot opponent as Fed also did in Stakhovsky. Both Fed and Nadal could have won their matches if a few points had gone their way. They were both closely contested matches.

It doesn't depend on the opponent, not in the first round. This is freaking Rafa......he looked like a club level player for the first time on grass; it was so painful to watch that I turned it off after the first set.

It's ALL about the body and specifically the knees.....if he can't bend comfortable during the first match he will get dispatch again regardless of who he play.

 

[Riotbeard]

Depends on the draw and nothing to do with playing IW/Miami and clay season imo. Sometimes you just meet a red hot opponent as Fed also did in Stakhovsky. Both Fed and Nadal could have won their matches if a few points had gone their way. They were both closely contested matches.

It doesn't depend on the opponent, not in the first round. This is freaking Rafa......he looked like a club level player for the first time on grass; it was so painful to watch that I turned it off after the first set.

It's ALL about the body and specifically the knees.....if he can't bend comfortable during the first match he will get dispatch again regardless of who he play.

You see things I don't when it comes to Rafa. He didn't play great, but it was a far cry from what you are saying IMO.

 

[DarthFed]

I highly doubt Rafa plays those small South American clay tournaments next year. Nole won AO and Dubai but his results, aside from MC, USO and Wimbledon, were generally woeful the rest of the year until Fall. Semis at IW, 4th round Miami, 4th round Madrid, Quarter Rome, Semis at RG (not woeful there, but that was always the earliest he would lose) Semis in Canada, and quarters in Cincy). I don't picture him doing as terrible in most of those tournaments as he did this year. Meanwhile Rafa won IW, Toronto and Cincy which are huge surprises and carry as many points as 1.5 majors.

Nole will have a lot of opportunity to regain #1 by RG or USO next year even if he does lose to Nadal in the final of AO, which I don't think I'd bet on. Nole is a lot stronger at AO than USO where his resume is hardly great when you think about it.

I read over this the first time. You do realize he reached 4 straight finals at the US Open? 5 in total. Yes, he only won one. But 'hardly great'? That's a little harsh. It's probably his second best tournament after the AO of the slams of third best after the AO and the WTF.

I am well aware he has made 4 straight finals there and he is 1 for 5 in the finals. From "greatness" perspective it is better to lose in semis than on the big stage. More to gain, more to risk. Off topic but it's the main reason I consider Sampras greater on grass than Roger (7 for 7 on the biggest stage of the sport with no failures). Nole has been easily swatted in 3 USO finals and the other one to Murray was also a very meek performance, something we obviously don't see in Australia.

 

[DarthFed]

As I pointed out, Darth's standards are becoming ridiculous. Now if you don't want to refer to his resume at the US Open as "great" because he "only" won it once, that's fine. But "hardly great" is extremely harsh.

To be fair to Darth, he's from Wisconsin and I got to know quite a lot of people from there when I was on vacation to attend a Packers Game in the famous Lambeau Field. For all the people and sports fan I talked to you are either a champion or a nobody. That attitude is not my cup of tea but it's the way it is and who can blame a city called title town. :grin:

What game did you go to Didi?

 

[brokenshoelace]

Nah, Nadal looked pretty awful against Darcis. It's one thing against Rosol, where despite not playing his best, he was still playing well enough to beat just about any other 2nd round opponent that day, but against Darcis he was pretty sub-par. Serve was all over the place, forehand was inconsistent, he was no conviction on his shots and moved poorly.

 

[Front242]

Depends on the draw and nothing to do with playing IW/Miami and clay season imo. Sometimes you just meet a red hot opponent as Fed also did in Stakhovsky. Both Fed and Nadal could have won their matches if a few points had gone their way. They were both closely contested matches.

It doesn't depend on the opponent, not in the first round. This is freaking Rafa......he looked like a club level player for the first time on grass; it was so painful to watch that I turned it off after the first set.

It's ALL about the body and specifically the knees.....if he can't bend comfortable during the first match he will get dispatch again regardless of who he play.

Point to note. Rafa has often been pure crap first week of Wimbledon and his knees seemed quite ok against everyone he played winning everything up to Wimbledon. Please. Pass the sick bag.

 

[huntingyou]

Depends on the draw and nothing to do with playing IW/Miami and clay season imo. Sometimes you just meet a red hot opponent as Fed also did in Stakhovsky. Both Fed and Nadal could have won their matches if a few points had gone their way. They were both closely contested matches.

It doesn't depend on the opponent, not in the first round. This is freaking Rafa......he looked like a club level player for the first time on grass; it was so painful to watch that I turned it off after the first set.

It's ALL about the body and specifically the knees.....if he can't bend comfortable during the first match he will get dispatch again regardless of who he play.

Point to note. Rafa has often been pure crap first week of Wimbledon and his knees seemed quite ok against everyone he played winning everything up to Wimbledon. Please. Pass the sick bag.

He made 5 consecutive finals but somehow he was pure crap the first week of those tournaments?

He lost in straight sets; forget about sick bag......the guy had no clue out there; couldn't adapt. You are Rafa hater anyways so I really don't care....I know what I'm talking about, clearly you don't