Novak's 2014 spring offensive and the battle for Paris

[Denis]

They were 1 - 1 on clay last year and Nadal just barely eeked out his victory at the French. I would not be so sure of your predictions. Anyway, I am holding you to them. You can hold me to mine too of course: RG will decide whether we have a new no 1.

 

[nehmeth]

Kind of dumb to mock what Kieran wrote. It's no more of a stretch than what you conjecture - maybe less when you think about it. They played one of the toughest battles ever in Oz in 2012. Who's to say after the way Ralf beat up Nole on the American hard courts that he won't go to Oz and do the same there?

Kieran is saying Nadal will win all events up to RG. Basically an improvement of Novak's 2011 start. You think that is realistic? :s

I'm definitely not making such a claim for Novak. Just pointing out he has 2180 points less to defend up till RG with half of the tourneys played on hards. And I think Novak has a good chance on clay too.

And I'm saying after being bullied all over the hardcourts by Rafa this summer, and the way Novak wilted during the biggest challenges, it's not wise to make so much out of this year end run.

When I watched Rafa practicing in Canada and saw the way he was striking the ball, I got a horrible sinking feeling in my stomach - it was going to be bad, and not just in that tournie. If Novak doesn't find some answers and thinks this "year end Rafa" will be the guy that shows up in Oz, he will get his arse handed to him there too.

 

[nehmeth]

They were 1 - 1 on clay last year and Nadal just barely eeked out his victory at the French. I would not be so sure of your predictions. Anyway, I am holding you to them. You can hold me to mine too of course: RG will decide whether we have a new no 1.

Rafa didn't barely eek out his victory. Nervous Novak was unable to win the first set and chunked the ball when he still had chances to win at the end. Ralf had the stones when it counted, our guy did not.
If this little year end run makes you forget that, then you have a lot of disappointment ahead my friend.

 

[Denis]

Well we'll see. It's true that the indoor and year-end stuff is a not a great indication of things. But I am not saying that. I didn't refer to the last two wins in this thread. Novak has a couple of 2R and 4R losses until RG and of course, there he lost in the semis. Irrespective of how they do when they meet each other Novak has quite some room to pick up points before meeting Nadal. Room that Nadal only realistically has at Oz as I don't see him defending the points of those tourney's that he used as a warm up.

 

[Denis]

They were 1 - 1 on clay last year and Nadal just barely eeked out his victory at the French. I would not be so sure of your predictions. Anyway, I am holding you to them. You can hold me to mine too of course: RG will decide whether we have a new no 1.

Rafa didn't barely eek out his victory. Nervous Novak was unable to win the first set and chunked the ball when he still had chances to win at the end. Ralf had the stones when it counted, our guy did not.
If this little year end run makes you forget that, then you have a lot of disappointment ahead my friend.

9-7 in a fifth set in the tourney he owns? And Novak could have played much better. Again: room for improvement. I do not expect him to win, but I do see opportunities.

 

[nehmeth]

Well we'll see. It's true that the indoor and year-end stuff is a not a great indication of things. But I am not saying that. I didn't refer to the last two wins in this thread. Novak has a couple of 2R and 4R losses until RG and of course, there he lost in the semis. Irrespective of how they do when they meet each other Novak has quite some room to pick up points before meeting Nadal. Room that Nadal only realistically has at Oz as I don't see him defending the points of those tourney's that he used as a warm up.

He will have some room to gain points on clay, but he also has MC to defend, so he could lose there. He needs to do well at IW and Miami to pick up points. But he'd also have to make the final of RG and win Wimbledon and the U.S. Open to gain any points from those tourneys.

That is a big ask of any player. Really.

 

[Denis]

Well we'll see. It's true that the indoor and year-end stuff is a not a great indication of things. But I am not saying that. I didn't refer to the last two wins in this thread. Novak has a couple of 2R and 4R losses until RG and of course, there he lost in the semis. Irrespective of how they do when they meet each other Novak has quite some room to pick up points before meeting Nadal. Room that Nadal only realistically has at Oz as I don't see him defending the points of those tourney's that he used as a warm up.

He will have some room to gain points on clay, but he also has MC to defend, so he could lose there. He needs to do well at IW and Miami to pick up points. But he'd also have to make the final of RG and win Wimbledon and the U.S. Open to gain any points from those tourneys.

That is a big ask of any player. Really.

First of all, Im not talking about Wimbledon and the US Open. Im talking about the tourney's leading up to RG as a potential opportunity to take over the no 1 spot after that tournament.

Outside AO, MC and RG there is really not much to defend. You're being overly and unnecessarily pessimistic. Even if Nadal beats Novak a fair share of times, the no 1 spot is certainly not out of reach. It's close and Novak has a bigger window of opportunity than Nadal.

 

[nehmeth]

Well we'll see. It's true that the indoor and year-end stuff is a not a great indication of things. But I am not saying that. I didn't refer to the last two wins in this thread. Novak has a couple of 2R and 4R losses until RG and of course, there he lost in the semis. Irrespective of how they do when they meet each other Novak has quite some room to pick up points before meeting Nadal. Room that Nadal only realistically has at Oz as I don't see him defending the points of those tourney's that he used as a warm up.

He will have some room to gain points on clay, but he also has MC to defend, so he could lose there. He needs to do well at IW and Miami to pick up points. But he'd also have to make the final of RG and win Wimbledon and the U.S. Open to gain any points from those tourneys.

That is a big ask of any player. Really.

First of all, Im not talking about Wimbledon and the US Open. Im talking about the tourney's leading up to RG as a potential opportunity to take over the no 1 spot after that tournament.

Outside AO, MC and RG there is really not much to defend. You're being overly and unnecessarily pessimistic. Even if Nadal beats Novak a fair share of times, the no 1 spot is certainly not out of reach. It's close and Novak has a bigger window of opportunity than Nadal.

Denis, if I seem pessimistic, it's only to counterbalance your overzealous fandom with reason. Yes, Novak has a chance to take over #1. He could also come up short. Murray could come back stronger than ever and torch the field. Rafa with two good knees will have to be knocked off his perch as #1 and I'm just saying, it's not going to be as easy as you think.

 

[Denis]

Where did I see it was going to be easy? :huh: My whole point is that there are opportunities here and that Rafa's task defending his points looks harder than Novak's task defending his. Hence my prediction that at RG we will see a battle for the no 1 spot.

 

[Denis]

Overzealous fandom btw? :nono

Not once did I say that Novak is going to repeat 2011 or something like that. I was just crunching numbers and I'm not going to repeat them.

 

[Kieran]

Rafa took seven months off injured and RG was his first best of five tourney in almost a year. He was woeful in the first week, better in the second and still should have dispatched Novak in four.

And Novak had set his stall out to take RG this year.

I base my Oz prediction on the fact the Nole barely eked out a victory there against a Rafa who was on a losing streak against him.

Oh, and the fact that Rafa has actually won Oz...

 

[DarthFed]

I highly doubt Rafa plays those small South American clay tournaments next year. Nole won AO and Dubai but his results, aside from MC, USO and Wimbledon, were generally woeful the rest of the year until Fall. Semis at IW, 4th round Miami, 4th round Madrid, Quarter Rome, Semis at RG (not woeful there, but that was always the earliest he would lose) Semis in Canada, and quarters in Cincy). I don't picture him doing as terrible in most of those tournaments as he did this year. Meanwhile Rafa won IW, Toronto and Cincy which are huge surprises and carry as many points as 1.5 majors.

Nole will have a lot of opportunity to regain #1 by RG or USO next year even if he does lose to Nadal in the final of AO, which I don't think I'd bet on. Nole is a lot stronger at AO than USO where his resume is hardly great when you think about it.

 

[huntingyou]

The way I look at the early battle for #1 next year makes more sense than the OP and it's easier to discuss as well.

Take Winter/Spring HC Season:

Rafa has 1750 points (Brazil, Acapulco, IW) vs Novak who has 3000 points (AO, Dubai, IW, Miami)

Novak can do better of course, he did in 2011 but Rafa for sure can do MUCh better and he doesn't need all the tournaments. Actually, he will skip one HC between IW and Miami and play Acapulco instead. If Rafa win OZ then forget about the #1 ranking until the summer HC season.

Clay Season:

Rafa has 5100 vs Novak 1900

Big opportunity for Novak but at this point, still Rafa's PLAYGROUND. If Novak defend OZ then he will have a chance to get the #1 by winning RG as well. It's possible but Rafa has a better chance at OZ than Novak at RG.

Grass:

Rafa ZERO points vs Novak 1200

No need to discuss. Rafa needs to manage his schedule by either skipping Barcelona or Madrid and hope to avoid grueling battles on clay in order to give his knees a chance to adapt. If not I won't be shock to see another 1rd exit.

Rafa for sure will lose the #1 rank during he summer HC season, I expect Novak to be an excellent hunter and knock him off. The question will be WHO won the slams by then? If Rafa leads Novak 2 to 1 or 1 to 0 then I like his chances to get it back during the fall. If Novak instead leads Rafa 2 to 1 or 1 to 0 in Slams....then he will keep it and it would be another great year for the Serb regardless of what happens at the UO. We might have a new winner anyways (Murray, Delpo?, Fed?)

 

[Denis]

The way I look at the early battle for #1 next year makes more sense than the OP and it's easier to discuss as well.

Take Winter/Spring HC Season:

Rafa has 1750 points (Brazil, Acapulco, IW) vs Novak who has 3000 points (AO, Dubai, IW, Miami)

Novak can do better of course, he did in 2011 but Rafa for sure can do MUCh better and he doesn't need all the tournaments. Actually, he will skip one HC between IW and Miami and play Acapulco instead. If Rafa win OZ then forget about the #1 ranking until the summer HC season.

Clay Season:

Rafa has 5100 vs Novak 1900

Big opportunity for Novak but at this point, still Rafa's PLAYGROUND. If Novak defend OZ then he will have a chance to get the #1 by winning RG as well. It's possible but Rafa has a better chance at OZ than Novak at RG.

Grass:

Rafa ZERO points vs Novak 1200

No need to discuss. Rafa needs to manage his schedule by either skipping Barcelona or Madrid and hope to avoid grueling battles on clay in order to give his knees a chance to adapt. If not I won't be shock to see another 1rd exit.

Rafa for sure will lose the #1 rank during he summer HC season, I expect Novak to be an excellent hunter and knock him off. The question will be WHO won the slams by then? If Rafa leads Novak 2 to 1 or 1 to 0 then I like his chances to get it back during the fall. If Novak instead leads Rafa 2 to 1 or 1 to 0 in Slams....then he will keep it and it would be another great year for the Serb regardless of what happens at the UO. We might have a new winner anyways (Murray, Delpo?, Fed?)

There is no early battle. Nadal will hold on to his no 1 position early in the season. You just pointed it out yourself. Much more points to defend for Novak. Hence, there is no point discussing it for the change in no 1 spot.

A good showing at Oz is crucial for both of them of course, since there are a lot of points to be gathered there. But it will not immediately have an impact on the ranking. This will come during the spring.

 

[huntingyou]

There is no early battle. Nadal will hold on to his no 1 position early in the season. You just pointed it out yourself. Much more points to defend for Novak. Hence, there is no point discussing it for the change in no 1 spot.

A good showing at Oz is crucial for both of them of course, since there are a lot of points to be gathered there. But it will not immediately have an impact on the ranking. This will come during the spring.

There is an early battle and whatever happens at OZ has huge implications. Just because the ranking won't change after OZ it doesn't mean we can't discuss it. Is not just AO but Dubai/IW/Miami for Novak and Acapulco/IW or Miami for Rafa as well.

 

[Denis]

There is no early battle. Nadal will hold on to his no 1 position early in the season. You just pointed it out yourself. Much more points to defend for Novak. Hence, there is no point discussing it for the change in no 1 spot.

A good showing at Oz is crucial for both of them of course, since there are a lot of points to be gathered there. But it will not immediately have an impact on the ranking. This will come during the spring.

There is an early battle and whatever happens at OZ has huge implications. Just because the ranking won't change after OZ it doesn't mean we can't discuss it. Is not just AO but Dubai/IW/Miami for Novak and Acapulco/IW or Miami for Rafa as well.

We don't disagree there. But Novak will not get to the no 1 spot until the spring at the very earliest. Your breakdown does show neatly who is defending which points at what part of the season.

 

[Denis]

I highly doubt Rafa plays those small South American clay tournaments next year. Nole won AO and Dubai but his results, aside from MC, USO and Wimbledon, were generally woeful the rest of the year until Fall. Semis at IW, 4th round Miami, 4th round Madrid, Quarter Rome, Semis at RG (not woeful there, but that was always the earliest he would lose) Semis in Canada, and quarters in Cincy). I don't picture him doing as terrible in most of those tournaments as he did this year. Meanwhile Rafa won IW, Toronto and Cincy which are huge surprises and carry as many points as 1.5 majors.

Nole will have a lot of opportunity to regain #1 by RG or USO next year even if he does lose to Nadal in the final of AO, which I don't think I'd bet on. Nole is a lot stronger at AO than USO where his resume is hardly great when you think about it.

I read over this the first time. You do realize he reached 4 straight finals at the US Open? 5 in total. Yes, he only won one. But 'hardly great'? That's a little harsh. It's probably his second best tournament after the AO of the slams of third best after the AO and the WTF.

 

[Kieran]

That's right, Denis. Plus, semi-finals in 2008 and 2009. He's been consistent at Flushing Meadows since first reaching the final as a calf in 2007...

 

[Riotbeard]

Well we'll see. It's true that the indoor and year-end stuff is a not a great indication of things. But I am not saying that. I didn't refer to the last two wins in this thread. Novak has a couple of 2R and 4R losses until RG and of course, there he lost in the semis. Irrespective of how they do when they meet each other Novak has quite some room to pick up points before meeting Nadal. Room that Nadal only realistically has at Oz as I don't see him defending the points of those tourney's that he used as a warm up.

He will have some room to gain points on clay, but he also has MC to defend, so he could lose there. He needs to do well at IW and Miami to pick up points. But he'd also have to make the final of RG and win Wimbledon and the U.S. Open to gain any points from those tourneys.

That is a big ask of any player. Really.

First of all, Im not talking about Wimbledon and the US Open. Im talking about the tourney's leading up to RG as a potential opportunity to take over the no 1 spot after that tournament.

Outside AO, MC and RG there is really not much to defend. You're being overly and unnecessarily pessimistic. Even if Nadal beats Novak a fair share of times, the no 1 spot is certainly not out of reach. It's close and Novak has a bigger window of opportunity than Nadal.

Denis, if I seem pessimistic, it's only to counterbalance your overzealous fandom with reason. Yes, Novak has a chance to take over #1. He could also come up short. Murray could come back stronger than ever and torch the field. Rafa with two good knees will have to be knocked off his perch as #1 and I'm just saying, it's not going to be as easy as you think.

Quit asking Denis to wait till noon to predict the sun will rise . He might be wrong, but I remember no shortage of threads predicting rafa will ascend mount olympus to punch zues in the gut and usurp his thrown after he won RG, which he wins every year (so hardly a reason to predict a return to #1).

I also think you can read something into a 22 match win streak with 2 routine wins over a rafa, who clearly did want to win the wtf this year, even if he couldn't quite put together his best and make it more competitive. Rafa had no desire to give ground back to Djokovic no matter what the surface.

 

[brokenshoelace]

So wait, does the season end right after RG? Because I'm pretty sure Nadal has 2000 points to gain at Wimbledon too. So saying "X amount of points" is the best Nadal can do is pretty selective when you decide to narrow it down to everything AFTER the US Open and BEFORE Wimbledon, while ignoring the up to 4000 points he can gain from those tournaments, while losing nothing. Oh and did I mention the 1000 he can gain in Miami?

Nadal does have a ton to defend, especially in the summer. I do expect Novak to wrestle away the number 1 ranking again at some point next year, especially since I don't expect Nadal to have quite the same insane North American summer. But, what you factor in just how many points he can gain from two majors, you'd realize that there's no reason to be so dismissive of those who rightly point out the points he can gain.

I think it's going to be quite a close battle.

PS: If I'm Nadal, I don't play the golden swing. I take time off after the Australian Open and just play IW and Miami.