Novak v 3.0 beta - preview

[DarthFed]

Though I agree with what Mastoor says, the word "improvement" needs a bit more longer time span and a bigger sample size. Nole had a great serving week and a net game this last 2 weeks, especially against Delpo, but he has to keep it up for at least half a season for me to buy it as a solid improvement. Maybe he will. Maybe his net game has improved forever, but until I see him do it for a good chunk of the season, I will say "He had a good volleying week".

Exactly. Nole has perhaps the worst overheads I've seen on the ATP tour and that is no exaggeration. And for someone who is not looking to come into net that much, the overheads become an even bigger deal. We've seen it play a big factor in big losses (think RG '13 and Olympics '08 for starters). It will take more than a good week to point out noticeable improvement.

The other thing about Nole the last 2 years goes beyond what shots he can and can't hit. He has brought his worst stuff to the biggest stages. He won AO where his game is way above everyone else, but the ones that are close to 50-50 he has been going down too easy. A resurgence in the Fall here can help him get going again but it's safe to say this AO has potential long-term implications if he fails to defend it.

Which ones? I can think of couple of matches with Rafa that were 50-50 or perhaps close to that that he lost easily, but I can't think of any other. I also know opposite examples like MC final that they played equally until last 2 games or WTF final last year against Fed (his last big match) that was also around equal until crescendo of Nole's game finally steamrolled Fed to nonchance.

I'd say Wimbledon '12 and '13, USO '13 and even RG '13 were thought to be close to 50-50 going in if not slight edge Nole everywhere except RG '13. USO '12 he was considered clear favorite vs. Murray for obvious reasons. I'd say all of those except RG '13 were pretty miserable performances. WTF and MC final are much different type of pressures than major finals and semis.

 

[Moxie]

Novak is definitely looking on very fine form in the last 2 tournaments, and seems to have his focus and mojo going. Perhaps knowing he was going to lose his #1 ranking kicked him into high gear. I read that he is speaking outright that he wants to get his 2011 level back. He's looking fearsome for the rest of the season, for sure.

I read some people noticing how No1e started playing better since he realised he must drop down to #2 while at the same time Rafa started dropping down his this year form, so they concluded that being #1 must be a huge burden for any player. I'd say this change just coincides with one guy being exhausted and another one being more focused on tennis than he ever was this year.

Well of course, there's another way of looking at that, which says that Rafa has gotten what he came for - 2 summer HC MS titles, the US Open and the world #1 spot - and is winding down his season. Personally, I doubt he's as motivated now as he was at Flushing Meadows, for example, whereas Nole is playing as he did last year in Asia, in a place he loves, for fans who love him and it's brought the best out of him.

In other words, their relative form and results this time of year are not indicative of a major shift in power...

he isn't winding down his season..he was destroyed by del potro, that's not winding down its destruction. why play just to lose.

and he never won the wtf and he is going for a 6th masters.

Del Potro played a superb match, so nothing gets taken away from that. I'm sure that Rafa wasn't playing to lose. However, it's not unreasonable to see a drop in intensity after a year like he's had, esp. after a Slam win. Djokovic suffered the same late in 2011. The record 6th masters is not a selling point, I wouldn't think. He already has more than anyone. Focus for the WTFs would be.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Actually, if people just bothered to look at the tennis instead of claiming that the world was coming to an end because Novak's results were on a decline, they'd have noticed that he has served better this year than he has in pretty much his entire career. Yes, other aspects of his game didn't click as well, but he's been serving excellent all year round, not just in Shanghai or Beijing. Watch his Wimbledon run all the way to the final.

As far as his net game goes, yeah, keep singing its praise until he misses the next overhead at a crucial time. His net game looks the same. He still does some things well, and some things mediocre by his standards (around the net that is). His high success rate is due to excellent approaches, not unlike Nadal.

"To many, No1e's service was better than his childhood idol's."

Okay, who are these "many" you speak of, because I'm pretty sure they know nothing about tennis, or happen to be lacking something essential between the ears. Novak's childhood idol was Sampras, and no, his serve, not this past week, not the week before, not next week, and not in a million years will be better, or remotely close to being as good as that of his childhood idol.

Agreed about his execution of his down the line backhand though. It's usually his bread and butter, but it's been a shot that has gone missing in key moments this year. Recapturing the feel on that particular shot can only do him good in the future.

Service wise it is opinion or just gut feeling of some of his fans, but I tell you what, they often make quite good No1emeter. I wish i read Nadal's answer on No1e's serve in post match interview after the Beijing final, if there was one. My impression was that his service in the final was better than ever.

I don't know whole lot about technicalities as you know, so I wonder what is mediocre in No1e's volleys and what could possibly be mediocre if someone's net game is with 90% success rate or better.

About the serve, I actually agree that it looked better than ever (more or less) in that particular match, but as far as improvement goes, it's been looking great for the better part of the year, and thus, the improvement had started way before the Beijing Open.

As far as the net game goes, the high success rate is due to his generally terrific approach shots. His dexterity and flexibility help him around the net, and he possesses great reflexes. However, technically, his positioning in the forecourt leaves a lot to be desired. He doesn't deal with high volleys all that well, his forehand volley in general is quite shaky, and his overheads are abysmal by any player's standards.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Novak is definitely looking on very fine form in the last 2 tournaments, and seems to have his focus and mojo going. Perhaps knowing he was going to lose his #1 ranking kicked him into high gear. I read that he is speaking outright that he wants to get his 2011 level back. He's looking fearsome for the rest of the season, for sure.

I read some people noticing how No1e started playing better since he realised he must drop down to #2 while at the same time Rafa started dropping down his this year form, so they concluded that being #1 must be a huge burden for any player. I'd say this change just coincides with one guy being exhausted and another one being more focused on tennis than he ever was this year.

Can't believe I'll say this but I agree, in full.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Novak is definitely looking on very fine form in the last 2 tournaments, and seems to have his focus and mojo going. Perhaps knowing he was going to lose his #1 ranking kicked him into high gear. I read that he is speaking outright that he wants to get his 2011 level back. He's looking fearsome for the rest of the season, for sure.

I read some people noticing how No1e started playing better since he realised he must drop down to #2 while at the same time Rafa started dropping down his this year form, so they concluded that being #1 must be a huge burden for any player. I'd say this change just coincides with one guy being exhausted and another one being more focused on tennis than he ever was this year.

Well of course, there's another way of looking at that, which says that Rafa has gotten what he came for - 2 summer HC MS titles, the US Open and the world #1 spot - and is winding down his season. Personally, I doubt he's as motivated now as he was at Flushing Meadows, for example, whereas Nole is playing as he did last year in Asia, in a place he loves, for fans who love him and it's brought the best out of him.

In other words, their relative form and results this time of year are not indicative of a major shift in power...

I think we're all 3 saying versions of the same thing. I don't think Rafa is "exhausted," Mastoor, but I think that Kieran's notion of each player being at different places in their motivation is not wrong. However, I don't think Mastoor was even trying to say it was a 'major shift in power.' Too early for that. And I also don't think we'll see that again, with these two.

Yeah. "Exhausted" isn't necessarily the right term as it implies physical fatigue, but it's more or less a combination of the things Mastoor said and a Kieran mentioned above. That, plus the fact that this is Nadal's worst surface.

 

[NADAL2005RG]

Nadal would probably have some mental fatigue by now, given how many finals he's played this year. Lots of sustained big match pressure to put on the brain. He doesn't look exhausted physically (although his level of pain may have increased since August). I think regardless of what he's feeling physically or mentally, he'll recognize this year as the ideal opportunity to win the World Tour Finals, so his mental state will be very eager in the final event of the year. Nadal did a great job of avoiding marathons during the 9 matches of the Asian swing (only played one 3-setter, and it was 2-6 6-4 6-1 vs Fognini, and the next day was the 4-2 match when Berdych retired).

 

[isabelle]

I've just read that Nole refused a WC for Valencia, he probably wants to save some energy to defend his Masters crown

 

[bobvance]

Also, he's brittle. I mean, he can be a tough guy with a huge roar, but he can be meek. He can be overcome, and this is what he needs to get back, because the difference in 2011 was mainly mental: he just wouldn't go away and this gave him the confidence to stay out there and undermine Nadal. I like your post and I think it all remains to be seen, and hopefully these two great players will both raise the level of the sport - again - and that you'll actually hang around after Nole's losses, as well as his victories, because the forum needs balance and the view of many fans, not just fans of Fedal...

I agree that the biggest difference between Novak today and in 2011 is mental. I think that marathon match at the AO really took a mental toll on Novak and it's almost like he said "If that's what I have to do to beat Rafa it's not worth it." This might offend Rafa fans but I think Novak is the better player at this point while Rafa has more will and is a better winner.

 

[NADAL2005RG]

Also, he's brittle. I mean, he can be a tough guy with a huge roar, but he can be meek. He can be overcome, and this is what he needs to get back, because the difference in 2011 was mainly mental: he just wouldn't go away and this gave him the confidence to stay out there and undermine Nadal. I like your post and I think it all remains to be seen, and hopefully these two great players will both raise the level of the sport - again - and that you'll actually hang around after Nole's losses, as well as his victories, because the forum needs balance and the view of many fans, not just fans of Fedal...

I agree that the biggest difference between Novak today and in 2011 is mental. I think that marathon match at the AO really took a mental toll on Novak and it's almost like he said "If that's what I have to do to beat Rafa it's not worth it." This might offend Rafa fans but I think Novak is the better player at this point while Rafa has more will and is a better winner.

I agree Djokovic is the better player physically. Djokovic is less-injured, has more reserves of physical stamina, and is more flexible (known for gymnastic ability). Nadal is winning because he has more tennis skills.

 

[Front242]

Also, he's brittle. I mean, he can be a tough guy with a huge roar, but he can be meek. He can be overcome, and this is what he needs to get back, because the difference in 2011 was mainly mental: he just wouldn't go away and this gave him the confidence to stay out there and undermine Nadal. I like your post and I think it all remains to be seen, and hopefully these two great players will both raise the level of the sport - again - and that you'll actually hang around after Nole's losses, as well as his victories, because the forum needs balance and the view of many fans, not just fans of Fedal...

I agree that the biggest difference between Novak today and in 2011 is mental. I think that marathon match at the AO really took a mental toll on Novak and it's almost like he said "If that's what I have to do to beat Rafa it's not worth it." This might offend Rafa fans but I think Novak is the better player at this point while Rafa has more will and is a better winner.

I agree Djokovic is the better player physically. Djokovic is less-injured, has more reserves of physical stamina, and is more flexible (known for gymnastic ability). Nadal is winning because he has more tennis skills.

Sorry but that part I've bolded is just so wrong in every way. If he has better tennis skills how do you explain 2011? Look, they trade wins often these days and I'd say their tennis abilities are very much dead even actually and on any given day either guy can win but to say Nadal has better tennis skills is just plain wrong. Novak's 2 handed BH is a deadly shot and really only middle of this year have I seen Nadal improve his BH to what it is now. Nadal has a better net game but novak proved his was good last week also. Consistently though Nadal is the better player at the net. Djokovic was killing Nadal in the US open with his inside out FH when it was clicking so they're definitely evenly matched. I think the past 2 years you see a definite mental edge in Nadal's favour. That's what's winning him matches and not more tennis skills. But a lot of the time matches between these two swing on a few points and one service break. Novak was running away with set 3 in the USO but Nadal showed grit, determination and great mental strength to get back on track in that set and took the match by the horns. Nadal's mental strength has won him endless matches and it's what he's most famous for imo rather than "more tennis skills". Of course he has considerable skills but they don't eclipse Djokovic's. They're two evenly matched opponents and momentum, confidence are what determines the outcome in many of their encounters.

 

[NADAL2005RG]

^ I'll agree to disagree on the tennis skills.

 

[DarthFed]

Front, you are talking to someone who thinks Rafa's backhand and return of serve are better than Murray's. No doubt he feels the same way regarding Nole. Rafa has the greatest serve, return of serve, backhand, forehand and net game ever. No one could hope to be a tenth as skilled.

 

[NADAL2005RG]

Front, you are talking to someone who thinks Rafa's backhand and return of serve are better than Murray's. No doubt he feels the same way regarding Nole. Rafa has the greatest serve, return of serve, backhand, forehand and net game ever. No one could hope to be a tenth as skilled.

The actual "return" shot itself, I've never said Nadal did better than Murray. But obviously Nadal's return game is better than Murray's, because the numbers all prove that. Nadal breaks serve more than Murray. And I said Nadal's backhand is a bigger weapon (produces the more extreme angles and flashy winners) than Murray's backhand, but I also said Murray's backhand is far more consistent. And the rest, is all you. Just use direct quotes next time.

 

[Denis]

Front, you are talking to someone who thinks Rafa's backhand and return of serve are better than Murray's. No doubt he feels the same way regarding Nole. Rafa has the greatest serve, return of serve, backhand, forehand and net game ever. No one could hope to be a tenth as skilled.

Yeah, it's just eye-litter.

 

[DarthFed]

Got to love the backtracking. You said that Nadal does everything better than Murray. There isn't a single thing about Nadal's backhand that is better than Murray's. It is not a bigger weapon at all. And only now are you saying Nadal's "return game" is better. If Rafa does break more over the last 4-5 years I am betting it is by a very small margin and it might have something to do with his better baseline game, especially on clay where serve barely matters.

 

[NADAL2005RG]

Yes, Nadal does everything better than Murray. Nadal holds serve better, Nadal breaks serve better, Nadal is a better baseliner, Nadal is even a better net player. That's what I mean by everything. I've already explained this before, so quit wasting time.

And I never said Nadal's return shot was better than Murray's return shot. I specifically said his return game. Read it and weep if you want, but this is not what the forum is for. This is the biggest problem with internet forums, people "playing the man" instead of the ball. I respond to tennis issues, not poster issues.

 

[nehmeth]

"in your opinion"

 

[Front242]

Yes, Nadal does everything better than Murray. Nadal holds serve better, Nadal breaks serve better, Nadal is a better baseliner, Nadal is even a better net player. That's what I mean by everything. I've already explained this before, so quit wasting time.

And I never said Nadal's return shot was better than Murray's return shot. I specifically said his return game. Read it and weep if you want, but this is not what the forum is for. This is the biggest problem with internet forums, people "playing the man" instead of the ball. I respond to tennis issues, not poster issues.

Murray's got a great net game and his angled volleys are insane a lot of the time. Not to say Nadal's aren't great too as they are, but I don't think I'd consider Nadal's net game better either personally. About even.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

djokovic needs to sort his head out.

all these spells where he goes mentally AWOL are inexplicable.

 

[NADAL2005RG]

Murray's got a great net game and his angled volleys are insane a lot of the time. Not to say Nadal's aren't great too as they are, but I don't think I'd consider Nadal's net game better either personally. About even.

True, a popular vote on the subject of which player has the better net game would be about even.