Novak v 3.0 beta - preview

[huntingyou]

you guys are boring.

in tennis there is only one winner, so no matter how the losing player actually performs, he will be judge as "something must be wrong"

If I didn't know better, you guys would have me believe Novak was strugling all year long with bad tennis. The guys is always the winner, the finalist or a semi-finalists. Very odd to find him losing before. I mean, nobody has been more consistent than this guy for the last three years.

If it wasn't for Rafa then Novak would have been a three time GS champion this year with 3 MS to boot and a pretty secure #1 ranking. Only two matches seperates Novak in your eyes from "he is a world beater" to "he is fragile, can't hit an overhead" or "he is a happy loser"

BS already said it, Novak hasn't serve better than this year and his return stats are still leading the tour or trailing Rafa. Could have he played better at the UO final? Yes he could have but often between great players, the other guy accross the net has somethinig to say about that. Please don't bring RG 5 set.....it should have been a routine Rafa victory in four sets; Novak out did himself by taking the match to a 5 set.

Finally, the fall season so far has't tell us anything different than we already knew. Novak is the best hardcourt player on tour, he loves the Asian courts and the people seem to boost his motivation a little bit more. Del Potro has been a pleasant surprise to say the least, Novak has been Novak all along.

 

[Riotbeard]

you guys are boring.

in tennis there is only one winner, so no matter how the losing player actually performs, he will be judge as "something must be wrong"

If I didn't know better, you guys would have me believe Novak was strugling all year long with bad tennis. The guys is always the winner, the finalist or a semi-finalists. Very odd to find him losing before. I mean, nobody has been more consistent than this guy for the last three years.

If it wasn't for Rafa then Novak would have been a three time GS champion this year with 3 MS to boot and a pretty secure #1 ranking. Only two matches seperates Novak in your eyes from "he is a world beater" to "he is fragile, can't hit an overhead" or "he is a happy loser"

BS already said it, Novak hasn't serve better than this year and his return stats are still leading the tour or trailing Rafa. Could have he played better at the UO final? Yes he could have but often between great players, the other guy accross the net has somethinig to say about that. Please don't bring RG 5 set.....it should have been a routine Rafa victory in four sets; Novak out did himself by taking the match to a 5 set.

Finally, the fall season so far has't tell us anything different than we already knew. Novak is the best hardcourt player on tour, he loves the Asian courts and the people seem to boost his motivation a little bit more. Del Potro has been a pleasant surprise to say the least, Novak has been Novak all along.

I am not sure I agree with this completely. Novak had not won a hard court title since dubai. He is the best hard court player but he didn't show it all the way through to the end of a tournament in quite some time. It means something, what that something is, is unclear. Is it a portent for next year, probably not, but it's the best signs of life from Novak (as far as closing out a tournament) in a while.

You gotta love the nerve of nadal2005rg, saying that this can't be used to predict next season, while at the same time, he reads nadal's facial expressions to predict the next two years of nadal's career. Blue shirt=2016 olympic gold medal.

 

[Kieran]

Ah Riotbeard, you're wrong there. You're being unfair. :nono

NADAL2005RG bases his infallible predictions on pure gut instinct. Something in his belly warned him that Rafa would lose at W this year, that Tyson would be beaten by Buster Douglas and that Kennedy was a fool to go to Dallas. A fool!

 

[NADAL2005RG]

Even though Nadal won Wimbledon in 2008 and 2010, there were warning signs that he could be upset early. So was pretty easy to have doubts about Wimbledon 2011/2012/2013. 2011 was Nadal's 2nd worst Roland Garros ever (Isner almost beat him, and Federer got close too), so that certainly created plenty of doubt at Wimbledon. Even when I forecast his slam total of 18-22, I completely leave out Wimbledon. Another Wimbledon title would be an unexpected bonus (not just because of his recent results, but also his statements about the low bounce making it too difficult to bend his knees enough). Whereas there is reason to believe he'll win more AO and USO titles.

If I didn't know better, you guys would have me believe Novak was strugling all year long with bad tennis.

I agree. Its odd that people react with surprise when Djokovic doesn't win the slams, and accuse him of being out of form or whatever. People should be use to it by now, considering the last time Djokovic won a slam title outside of Australia was 2011. Its getting predictable that he'll lose to Nadal or Murray if its not in Australia. Even in Australia, he took 6 hours to beat the lowest confidence version of Nadal EVER. Djokovic is an expert at beating the non-elite, that is all that is certain. Only 2011 was different, yet I think its obvious that Nadal playing too defensively (not enough depth, and too many crosscourt) was key to that. Nadal was more attacking in 2010, 2012 and 2013, so I think that is something worth looking into regarding Djokovic's results.

 

[Denis]

I agree with the posters that say it is mainly mental why he had (/is having) an outstanding year but not a 2011 year. He was a bit berattled and relatively unfocused at times. I do think he can do a 2011 again of course. In a way it is good that he is once again the hunter, might prove to be crucial for RG 2014.

Btw, his serve was already very very good during Wimbledon up until the final by this year.

PS good to see you posting here again Mastoor!

 

[NADAL2005RG]

People go by results too much, instead of the level of tennis. If Nadal didn't play at all in 2013, and Djokovic won 3 slams, people will say it was another 2011 (regardless of the level of tennis or the opposition).

 

[brokenshoelace]

Btw, his serve was already very very good during Wimbledon up until the final by this year.

Yup. He's actually having a career best year in terms of serving. I personally have never seen him win as many cheap points. His serve out wide on the ad court is clicking again (probably the hardest serve in tennis, since it needs to be hit flat and over the highest part of the net), and his serve down the T on the deuce court is just as good. He's always had the slider down out wide on the deuce court too, which only makes the one down the middle that much more effective. In general, it's not just a matter of pace and placement, but options. Novak this year, has been hitting pretty much every serve quite well, so it makes it difficult to read.

Of course, he's had less than stellar serving performances in key matches that have greatly affected his results though, no question about that. But on average, I'd say his serve is improved this year, a good few months before he traveled to Asia.

 

[DarthFed]

It's annoying that talk of Novak or Roger struggling in any way is seen as a diss on Rafa. Then every Rafa fan comes in here and talks about how said struggles are nonsense, Nole/fed shouldbe happy to be routinely pummeled in slam finals. Anyone with a decent set of eyes would call the USO and Wimbledon finals as very poor performances. Same with RG 12, Wimbledon 12 and USO 12. RG 13 may not fit in thAt but it is also telling that the defining moment of the match was something a 10 year old wouldn't do.

 

[huntingyou]

It's annoying that talk of Novak or Roger struggling in any way is seen as a diss on Rafa. Then every Rafa fan comes in here and talks about how said struggles are nonsense, Nole/fed shouldbe happy to be routinely pummeled in slam finals. Anyone with a decent set of eyes would call the USO and Wimbledon finals as very poor performances. Same with RG 12, Wimbledon 12 and USO 12. RG 13 may not fit in thAt but it is also telling that the defining moment of the match was something a 10 year old wouldn't do.

Nobody it's taking this as a diss on Rafa, it's just a matter of perspective and since the OP opened the doors for Novak's level of tennis discussion and what he can achieve again, then it's fairly justified to bring clarity from all sides....meaning those matches you guys are judging as bad tennis from Novak.

I already stated that Novak was less than stellar in the UO final and Wimbledon final, no doubt about it but tennis it's seldom play in a vacuum...unless your level it's such that it really doesn't matter what your opponent does.

Do me a favor, look at his results this year...tournament by tournament.

He won AO and Dubai, lost to JMDP in IW and had a bad showing at Miami. (looking towards the clay season perhaps?)

He plays one of his finest claycourt tennis in his career and dismantle Rafa at MC; cruise in Madrid and Rome with dissapointing performance. Novak is not Rafa on clay, losing to Berdych or even a youngster like Dimi it's not the end of the world.........it's clay after all. He did what he was suppossed to do at RG, faced Rafa with plenty in the tank left.......and despite being outplay thoughtout the match; somehow managed to force Rafa into a 5th set. The overhead at the net was bad BUT that wasn't a BP or GP.....it was DEUCE. (perspective my friends)

Goes to Wimbledon and looks like a world beater until Juan shows up. By now we should get used to these two to bring crazy tennis with ups and downs being the routine. Yes, his level against Murray was mediocre and perhaps the previous match took out a little bit out of him...........but Murray was a man on a mission and I see nothing wrong with Novak losing to the better player that day...be it straights or a 5 set marathon.

I know you are extremely biased when it comes to Rafa and his capabilities on a HC, the match at Montreal between these showcased Rafa playing basically at the highest level in the third set and TB to take the match. It could have gone the otherway...it was as close as IW 2011 and Miami 2011. I would love to see what you have to say in favor of rafa during those two losses.

UO final? Enough has been said..........I see it as Rafa taking his tennis and will to a level that only the very best of Novak could have derailed it, but if Novak can call on command his very best level then why play tennis on HC? He would be undefeated.

Asian Swing? The same player that we saw at the AO, Dubai, IW, Miami, ETC....you get the point? His execution it's a bit better, the court benefit his game and his attitude has been superb. The same old Novak.......best HC player on tour and one of the greatest that ever play the game on that surface.

 

[DarthFed]

It's annoying that talk of Novak or Roger struggling in any way is seen as a diss on Rafa. Then every Rafa fan comes in here and talks about how said struggles are nonsense, Nole/fed shouldbe happy to be routinely pummeled in slam finals. Anyone with a decent set of eyes would call the USO and Wimbledon finals as very poor performances. Same with RG 12, Wimbledon 12 and USO 12. RG 13 may not fit in thAt but it is also telling that the defining moment of the match was something a 10 year old wouldn't do.

Nobody it's taking this as a diss on Rafa, it's just a matter of perspective and since the OP opened the doors for Novak's level of tennis discussion and what he can achieve again, then it's fairly justified to bring clarity from all sides....meaning those matches you guys are judging as bad tennis from Novak.

I already stated that Novak was less than stellar in the UO final and Wimbledon final, no doubt about it but tennis it's seldom play in a vacuum...unless your level it's such that it really doesn't matter what your opponent does.

Do me a favor, look at his results this year...tournament by tournament.

He won AO and Dubai, lost to JMDP in IW and had a bad showing at Miami. (looking towards the clay season perhaps?)

He plays one of his finest claycourt tennis in his career and dismantle Rafa at MC; cruise in Madrid and Rome with dissapointing performance. Novak is not Rafa on clay, losing to Berdych or even a youngster like Dimi it's not the end of the world.........it's clay after all. He did what he was suppossed to do at RG, faced Rafa with plenty in the tank left.......and despite being outplay thoughtout the match; somehow managed to force Rafa into a 5th set. The overhead at the net was bad BUT that wasn't a BP or GP.....it was DEUCE. (perspective my friends)

Goes to Wimbledon and looks like a world beater until Juan shows up. By now we should get used to these two to bring crazy tennis with ups and downs being the routine. Yes, his level against Murray was mediocre and perhaps the previous match took out a little bit out of him...........but Murray was a man on a mission and I see nothing wrong with Novak losing to the better player that day...be it straights or a 5 set marathon.

I know you are extremely biased when it comes to Rafa and his capabilities on a HC, the match at Montreal between these showcased Rafa playing basically at the highest level in the third set and TB to take the match. It could have gone the otherway...it was as close as IW 2011 and Miami 2011. I would love to see what you have to say in favor of rafa during those two losses.

UO final? Enough has been said..........I see it as Rafa taking his tennis and will to a level that only the very best of Novak could have derailed it, but if Novak can call on command his very best level then why play tennis on HC? He would be undefeated.

Asian Swing? The same player that we saw at the AO, Dubai, IW, Miami, ETC....you get the point? His execution it's a bit better, the court benefit his game and his attitude has been superb. The same old Novak.......best HC player on tour and one of the greatest that ever play the game on that surface.

With all due respect to JMDP he is not a world beater and aside from 09 he has never been. He is now just currently making strides to getting back there. It is a large upset to see Nole lose to him and even struggle with him at Wimbledon in the semi. Nole had weak losses at Miami, Madrid and Rome but this isn't really about that. You can't just dismiss the type of performances we saw at Wimbledon and USO as "mediocre days" and his opponent being way too good. Those were deemed 50-50 matches or close to it and Novak barely had a pulse in either match. Same with Wimbledon 2012 vs. Roger where Nole looked awful in the 1st and almost disinterested in the 4th. The only decent performance was RG'13 and like I said...look what happened in the definitive moment.

Nole will have to figure it out, or he will be looking up the totem pole at 2-3 guys in the near future. The Asian swing and even YEC is more a band aid at this point.

 

[Mastoor]

Novak is definitely looking on very fine form in the last 2 tournaments, and seems to have his focus and mojo going. Perhaps knowing he was going to lose his #1 ranking kicked him into high gear. I read that he is speaking outright that he wants to get his 2011 level back. He's looking fearsome for the rest of the season, for sure.

I read some people noticing how No1e started playing better since he realised he must drop down to #2 while at the same time Rafa started dropping down his this year form, so they concluded that being #1 must be a huge burden for any player. I'd say this change just coincides with one guy being exhausted and another one being more focused on tennis than he ever was this year.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

djokovic has had some feeble performances like wimb, uso finals, a bit of mental burn out after being no1 for so long..also the weird implosion at rg sf,

also..he has that new bloke as part of his team, the ex coach of lendl ??, maybe whatever he is there for is helping to clear the clouds away from djokovics mental outlook.

 

[Mastoor]

Though I agree with what Mastoor says, the word "improvement" needs a bit more longer time span and a bigger sample size. Nole had a great serving week and a net game this last 2 weeks, especially against Delpo, but he has to keep it up for at least half a season for me to buy it as a solid improvement. Maybe he will. Maybe his net game has improved forever, but until I see him do it for a good chunk of the season, I will say "He had a good volleying week".

Exactly. Nole has perhaps the worst overheads I've seen on the ATP tour and that is no exaggeration. And for someone who is not looking to come into net that much, the overheads become an even bigger deal. We've seen it play a big factor in big losses (think RG '13 and Olympics '08 for starters). It will take more than a good week to point out noticeable improvement.

The other thing about Nole the last 2 years goes beyond what shots he can and can't hit. He has brought his worst stuff to the biggest stages. He won AO where his game is way above everyone else, but the ones that are close to 50-50 he has been going down too easy. A resurgence in the Fall here can help him get going again but it's safe to say this AO has potential long-term implications if he fails to defend it.

Which ones? I can think of couple of matches with Rafa that were 50-50 or perhaps close to that that he lost easily, but I can't think of any other. I also know opposite examples like MC final that they played equally until last 2 games or WTF final last year against Fed (his last big match) that was also around equal until crescendo of Nole's game finally steamrolled Fed to nonchance.

 

[Mastoor]

djokovic has had some feeble performances like wimb, uso finals, a bit of mental burn out after being no1 for so long..also the weird implosion at rg sf,

also..he has that new bloke as part of his team, the ex coach of lendl ??, maybe whatever he is there for is helping to clear the clouds away from djokovics mental outlook.

I don't even know if Fibak is still with the team because he wasn't in the box in China, only the old team members including Vajda, Miljan the physio and Gebhard the fitter. But Fibak was hired for service and net game among other things which improved so i guess he must be working with No1e even though he doesn't happened to be in the box.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

djokovic has had some feeble performances like wimb, uso finals, a bit of mental burn out after being no1 for so long..also the weird implosion at rg sf,

also..he has that new bloke as part of his team, the ex coach of lendl ??, maybe whatever he is there for is helping to clear the clouds away from djokovics mental outlook.

I don't even know if Fibak is still with the team because he wasn't in the box in China, only the old team members including Vajda, Miljan the physio and Gebhard the fitter. But Fibak was hired for service and net game among other things which improved so i guess he must be working with No1e even though he doesn't happened to be in the box.

they call it tennis maaaan. or something like that, I suppose he is a behind the scene sort of influence on djokovic.

 

[Kieran]

Novak is definitely looking on very fine form in the last 2 tournaments, and seems to have his focus and mojo going. Perhaps knowing he was going to lose his #1 ranking kicked him into high gear. I read that he is speaking outright that he wants to get his 2011 level back. He's looking fearsome for the rest of the season, for sure.

I read some people noticing how No1e started playing better since he realised he must drop down to #2 while at the same time Rafa started dropping down his this year form, so they concluded that being #1 must be a huge burden for any player. I'd say this change just coincides with one guy being exhausted and another one being more focused on tennis than he ever was this year.

Well of course, there's another way of looking at that, which says that Rafa has gotten what he came for - 2 summer HC MS titles, the US Open and the world #1 spot - and is winding down his season. Personally, I doubt he's as motivated now as he was at Flushing Meadows, for example, whereas Nole is playing as he did last year in Asia, in a place he loves, for fans who love him and it's brought the best out of him.

In other words, their relative form and results this time of year are not indicative of a major shift in power...

 

[Mastoor]

Actually, if people just bothered to look at the tennis instead of claiming that the world was coming to an end because Novak's results were on a decline, they'd have noticed that he has served better this year than he has in pretty much his entire career. Yes, other aspects of his game didn't click as well, but he's been serving excellent all year round, not just in Shanghai or Beijing. Watch his Wimbledon run all the way to the final.

As far as his net game goes, yeah, keep singing its praise until he misses the next overhead at a crucial time. His net game looks the same. He still does some things well, and some things mediocre by his standards (around the net that is). His high success rate is due to excellent approaches, not unlike Nadal.

"To many, No1e's service was better than his childhood idol's."

Okay, who are these "many" you speak of, because I'm pretty sure they know nothing about tennis, or happen to be lacking something essential between the ears. Novak's childhood idol was Sampras, and no, his serve, not this past week, not the week before, not next week, and not in a million years will be better, or remotely close to being as good as that of his childhood idol.

Agreed about his execution of his down the line backhand though. It's usually his bread and butter, but it's been a shot that has gone missing in key moments this year. Recapturing the feel on that particular shot can only do him good in the future.

Service wise it is opinion or just gut feeling of some of his fans, but I tell you what, they often make quite good No1emeter. I wish i read Nadal's answer on No1e's serve in post match interview after the Beijing final, if there was one. My impression was that his service in the final was better than ever.

I don't know whole lot about technicalities as you know, so I wonder what is mediocre in No1e's volleys and what could possibly be mediocre if someone's net game is with 90% success rate or better.

 

[Mastoor]

Novak is definitely looking on very fine form in the last 2 tournaments, and seems to have his focus and mojo going. Perhaps knowing he was going to lose his #1 ranking kicked him into high gear. I read that he is speaking outright that he wants to get his 2011 level back. He's looking fearsome for the rest of the season, for sure.

I read some people noticing how No1e started playing better since he realised he must drop down to #2 while at the same time Rafa started dropping down his this year form, so they concluded that being #1 must be a huge burden for any player. I'd say this change just coincides with one guy being exhausted and another one being more focused on tennis than he ever was this year.

Well of course, there's another way of looking at that, which says that Rafa has gotten what he came for - 2 summer HC MS titles, the US Open and the world #1 spot - and is winding down his season. Personally, I doubt he's as motivated now as he was at Flushing Meadows, for example, whereas Nole is playing as he did last year in Asia, in a place he loves, for fans who love him and it's brought the best out of him.

In other words, their relative form and results this time of year are not indicative of a major shift in power...

Probably, because they are both used to be in top positions in last 6 or more years and also the goal is always the same for either - #1.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

Novak is definitely looking on very fine form in the last 2 tournaments, and seems to have his focus and mojo going. Perhaps knowing he was going to lose his #1 ranking kicked him into high gear. I read that he is speaking outright that he wants to get his 2011 level back. He's looking fearsome for the rest of the season, for sure.

I read some people noticing how No1e started playing better since he realised he must drop down to #2 while at the same time Rafa started dropping down his this year form, so they concluded that being #1 must be a huge burden for any player. I'd say this change just coincides with one guy being exhausted and another one being more focused on tennis than he ever was this year.

Well of course, there's another way of looking at that, which says that Rafa has gotten what he came for - 2 summer HC MS titles, the US Open and the world #1 spot - and is winding down his season. Personally, I doubt he's as motivated now as he was at Flushing Meadows, for example, whereas Nole is playing as he did last year in Asia, in a place he loves, for fans who love him and it's brought the best out of him.

In other words, their relative form and results this time of year are not indicative of a major shift in power...

he isn't winding down his season..he was destroyed by del potro, that's not winding down its destruction. why play just to lose.

and he never won the wtf and he is going for a 6th masters.

 

[Moxie]

Novak is definitely looking on very fine form in the last 2 tournaments, and seems to have his focus and mojo going. Perhaps knowing he was going to lose his #1 ranking kicked him into high gear. I read that he is speaking outright that he wants to get his 2011 level back. He's looking fearsome for the rest of the season, for sure.

I read some people noticing how No1e started playing better since he realised he must drop down to #2 while at the same time Rafa started dropping down his this year form, so they concluded that being #1 must be a huge burden for any player. I'd say this change just coincides with one guy being exhausted and another one being more focused on tennis than he ever was this year.

Well of course, there's another way of looking at that, which says that Rafa has gotten what he came for - 2 summer HC MS titles, the US Open and the world #1 spot - and is winding down his season. Personally, I doubt he's as motivated now as he was at Flushing Meadows, for example, whereas Nole is playing as he did last year in Asia, in a place he loves, for fans who love him and it's brought the best out of him.

In other words, their relative form and results this time of year are not indicative of a major shift in power...

I think we're all 3 saying versions of the same thing. I don't think Rafa is "exhausted," Mastoor, but I think that Kieran's notion of each player being at different places in their motivation is not wrong. However, I don't think Mastoor was even trying to say it was a 'major shift in power.' Too early for that. And I also don't think we'll see that again, with these two.