Nole's Next Year

[El Dude]

lacatch might be right, but there's no way to know until it happens. I could see one scenario where the reign of the Big Four falls apart sooner than later, with rumblings this year and a regime change in 2015-16 (we've already seen Wawrinka win a Slam, and some key upsets to Rafa by Kyrgios and Andy by Dimitrov). I also see another scenario--equally, if not more likely--where Novak, Rafa, and maybe Andy win 75% of the Slams between them for the next few years and the current up-and-coming generation gets passed over until the next group comes into their own. It is really hard to say.

Either way, Moxie, I do think we'll enter a period of many different Slam winners at some point in the next five years. Over the next three years or so I think Novak, Rafa, Andy, Grigor, even Milos and one or two others, will win Slams (maybe Roger, but I'm doubtful). If we're looking at 2015-2017--the years Novak turns 28-30 and Rafa 29-31, that's 12 Slams. I would predict that Rafa and Novak win about half of those and the remaining 6 or so are won by 3-4, maybe 5 others. By the time we get to 2018 or 2019, we'll see a whole new generation--perhaps Kyrgios, Zverev, Coric, Garin, etc--rising to the top, with Novak, Andy, and maybe Rafa hanging around but not as dominant. Grigor, Milos and maybe one or two others (Ernests? Kei?) will be in the mix, but more as spoilers and contenders ala Berdych and Tsonga then legit candidates for the #1 spot. I suppose Grigor is the only one with a chance to surprise, but he's already 23.

But again, think of how Roger has played from 2010--the year he was 28-29--to the present, which is Rafa next year, Novak in 2016. Do we expect Rafa and Novak to be significantly better than Roger was in his plateau phase? Maybe, but it doesn't seem likely. The main difference, though, is while Roger had Rafa, Novak and Andy coming up after him, quickening his decline, Rafa, Novak and Andy have Milos, Grigor and...Kei? Ernests? coming up. Not nearly the same kind of challenge from a younger generation. So my point is, even as Rafa and Novak enter a new phase of their career and aren't quite what they were in their prime, their descent will be slower than Roger's because there isn't a powerful new generation rising to take those Slams away, or at least not to the degree that they did from Roger.

So Rafa and especially Novak might look better in their 28-32 plateau phase than Roger did, but it isn't because they will be better than Roger was, but because the generation coming up isn't as good. We have to honor and respect the fact that Roger has hung around with a peaking hungry, younger generation. I don't think any great player has really been able to do that, at least not past 27-28. A few--Lendl, Agassi, maybe Sampras--hung in there until around 29 or so, but eventually even they were surpassed by the younger generation.

 

[Moxie]

Ah Moxie---clinging to the vision that your hombre is still going to win many more slams When you say that "the big 3-4 still have a decent lock on at least getting most of the Slams for the next couple of years", you really are assuring yourself that NADAL will win several more and pass Federer. That time when the Big 4 (which is really not the Big 4 anymore) will no longer clean up is sooner than you think....

Actually, I thought we were having a more interesting conversation than that, even if it was a bit off-topic. (Topic being Nole's next year.) When I say that "the big 3-4 still have a decent lock on at least getting most of the Slams for the next couple of years," I'm saying that Djokovic, Murray and Nadal will feature, though I don't think Federer will, frankly. However, I think that the others will take a big slice of the Majors in the next 2 years. If you add Del Potro into the mix, my point is that it doesn't leave a lot of Majors for the also-rans to scoop up.

That doesn't mean that I think that Nadal will win enough to pass Federer. I'm talking about the group as a force against the young guard.

 

[herios]

I am with lacatch here. The posters here are clinging here on the Big 4, while it is now quite some time since they dominated the slams as a group.
in the last several slams, in the final phase (SF), there were max 2 of the big 4:
Last time there were at least 3 out of them in the final phase was at AO2013, in the last 6 slams there were either 2 or only 1 of them there.
It is just a matter of time, and that is around the corner, when another Wawrinka will emerge. I bet next year will be a different GS winner than the usual suspects again, at least once.
And who will that be, no, not a teenager. I still think the tennis today has become a game of mature players.

 

[Moxie]

I am with lacatch here. The posters here are clinging here on the Big 4, while it is now quite some time since they dominated the slams as a group.
in the last several slams, in the final phase (SF), there were max 2 of the big 4:
Last time there were at least 3 out of them in the final phase was at AO2013, in the last 6 slams there were either 2 or only 1 of them there.
It is just a matter of time, and that is around the corner, when another Wawrinka will emerge. I bet next year will be a different GS winner than the usual suspects again, at least once.
And who will that be, no, not a teenager. I still think the tennis today has become a game of mature players.

"It is now some time since they (the Big 4) has dominated as a group." Really? I get that they are no longer guarding the gates as well as they did, and that the also-rans are battering at the door. However, was it not still Federer in that the last major final? And Djokovic who won? And, while Wawrinka is the only one to break through in a Major in 5 years, it's not like he's lighting up the circuit.

I like your prediction that the next surprise could come from a more mature player, rather than a kid. Though I'd guess it would be Dimitrov…middle-years guy, not a 28-30 year old.

 

[Kieran]

Ah Moxie---clinging to the vision that your hombre is still going to win many more slams When you say that "the big 3-4 still have a decent lock on at least getting most of the Slams for the next couple of years", you really are assuring yourself that NADAL will win several more and pass Federer. That time when the Big 4 (which is really not the Big 4 anymore) will no longer clean up is sooner than you think....

I think I've read this post every year for the last 5 years. In other words, even pre-dating the so-called Big 4. But let's drop the pretense: it's a Big 3.

And let's be clear who's doing most of the winning.

It's a Big 2.

Federer is part of the Big 3 by dint of his record, his ability to nab a major if Rafa is out injured and Nole falls asleep, and his ranking. Murray is not a Big Anything - but if he wins a major this year, he's legitimately back in as a Big Boy.

As for Rafa, every time he gets injured, the doom bells toll. I remember it as far back as 2007: he'll burn out, he'll be like Borg, there's no way he'll last long as a champion. Currently, he's won a major ten seasons in succession - and we're still counting. And since a consensus is forming that it's a mature players game, well hey, there ya go! He's now heading into his maturity. At the rate Rafa wins majors, it would be a brave man or a fool who'd write him off.

Currently, only Stan has a major that doesn't belong to Rafa-Rog-Nole-Andy.

Going back as far as 2009.

Will that last forever? Of course not. But predicting that "nothing lasts forever" is on a par with stating that "night follows day." In other words, it's not actually saying anything at all...

 

[herios]

I am with lacatch here. The posters here are clinging here on the Big 4, while it is now quite some time since they dominated the slams as a group.
in the last several slams, in the final phase (SF), there were max 2 of the big 4:
Last time there were at least 3 out of them in the final phase was at AO2013, in the last 6 slams there were either 2 or only 1 of them there.
It is just a matter of time, and that is around the corner, when another Wawrinka will emerge. I bet next year will be a different GS winner than the usual suspects again, at least once.
And who will that be, no, not a teenager. I still think the tennis today has become a game of mature players.

"It is now some time since they (the Big 4) has dominated as a group." Really? I get that they are no longer guarding the gates as well as they did, and that the also-rans are battering at the door. However, was it not still Federer in that the last major final? And Djokovic who won? And, while Wawrinka is the only one to break through in a Major in 5 years, it's not like he's lighting up the circuit.

I like your prediction that the next surprise could come from a more mature player, rather than a kid. Though I'd guess it would be Dimitrov…middle-years guy, not a 28-30 year old.

Really. Roger is there but he is not winning. Last Slam or master win was 2 years ago for him. Murray has not made a final in a year as well.
There are only 2 who are doing all the winning at the moment, as Kieran just pointed out.

As far as who will be the next new winner of a slam, yes I think he will be someone younger than 28, but older than 22.

And I can totally see that tennis is entering again soon into that period where will be many GS winners who will not reach the 4 slams (1-3). They will start winning while the dominant players are still around, like some did while Sampras or Agassi both were still playing.

 

[El Dude]

And I can totally see that tennis is entering again soon into that period where will be many GS winners who will not reach the 4 slams (1-3). They will start winning while the dominant players are still around, like some did while Sampras or Agassi both were still playing.

Well that's just it: Who will be this eras Kafelnikovs, Krajiceks, Kordas, Kuertens, Moyas, Costas, Johannsons, etc? Those are the "in-between champions," guys who won Slams during the tidal shift between one era of dominance (Sampras and Agassi) and the next (Federer and then Nadal).

One difference, though, is that Sampras-Agassi weren't nearly as dominant as Federer-Nadal. From 1993-2000, a period of 8 years and 32 Slams, Sampras and Agassi won a total of 17 Slams or 53%. From 2004-2010, a period of 7 years and 28 Slams, Roger and Rafa won 24 Slams, or 86%. And then from 2011-2014, a period of almost 4 years and 15 Slams, Rafa and Novak have won 11 Slams, or 73%. Add in Roger and Andy and you've got 14 of 15 Slams, or 93%.

The point being, the dominance of the Big Two/Four (depending upon what year, and where you want to draw the line) has been much greater over the last 11 years than it ever was during the 90s. Sampras and Agassi, together, accounted for about half of Slam wins during their primes, while Rafa and Roger, then Rafa and Novak with a sprinkling of Roger and Andy, have accounted for about 90%.

I, for one, look forward to a bit more diversity!

 

[Kieran]

Yeah, we really need the field to grow a pair, they've been far too deferential and compliant these last ten years or so...

 

[herios]

One aspect I am curious about is how one of the potential future GS winners, Grigor will play and hold his ground once a top 8.
Here in Canada he will be for the first time ranked as such, so he better take advantage of it. Milos did a pretty good job all spring being ranked top 8 in the Big events. Now he plays as he belongs.

Back to topic, Nole better take advantage of this USO, as this is a great opportunity. He has momentum and he should focus and capitalize on it. His biggest wastes were here at the USO.

 

[Fiero425]

One aspect I am curious about is how one of the potential future GS winners, Grigor will play and hold his ground once a top 8.
Here in Canada he will be for the first time ranked as such, so he better take advantage of it. Milos did a pretty good job all spring being ranked top 8 in the Big events. Now he plays as he belongs.

Back to topic, Nole better take advantage of this USO, as this is a great opportunity. He has momentum and he should focus and capitalize on it. His biggest wastes were here at the USO.

I always considered it the Aussie Open with only one title, injuries during the event, and of course the times he's missed it altogether! :nono :angel:

 

[Front242]

Ah Moxie---clinging to the vision that your hombre is still going to win many more slams When you say that "the big 3-4 still have a decent lock on at least getting most of the Slams for the next couple of years", you really are assuring yourself that NADAL will win several more and pass Federer. That time when the Big 4 (which is really not the Big 4 anymore) will no longer clean up is sooner than you think....

I think I've read this post every year for the last 5 years. In other words, even pre-dating the so-called Big 4. But let's drop the pretense: it's a Big 3.

And let's be clear who's doing most of the winning.

It's a Big 2.

Federer is part of the Big 3 by dint of his record, his ability to nab a major if Rafa is out injured and Nole falls asleep, and his ranking. Murray is not a Big Anything - but if he wins a major this year, he's legitimately back in as a Big Boy.

Or his ability to reach a slam final and lose narrowly at almost 33 when Rafa was not injured but simply not good enough to make it past the 4th round of Wimbledon and most actually had Federer as the favourite there even with Roger close to 33 years old. He doesn't need Novak to play badly to win and was over the hill by years and yet still had 2 match points in both those successive US Open semis in 2010 and 2011 and frankly should've at least won one of them.

 

[Kieran]

Ah Moxie---clinging to the vision that your hombre is still going to win many more slams When you say that "the big 3-4 still have a decent lock on at least getting most of the Slams for the next couple of years", you really are assuring yourself that NADAL will win several more and pass Federer. That time when the Big 4 (which is really not the Big 4 anymore) will no longer clean up is sooner than you think....

I think I've read this post every year for the last 5 years. In other words, even pre-dating the so-called Big 4. But let's drop the pretense: it's a Big 3.

And let's be clear who's doing most of the winning.

It's a Big 2.

Federer is part of the Big 3 by dint of his record, his ability to nab a major if Rafa is out injured and Nole falls asleep, and his ranking. Murray is not a Big Anything - but if he wins a major this year, he's legitimately back in as a Big Boy.

Or his ability to reach a slam final and lose narrowly at almost 33 when Rafa was not injured but simply not good enough to make it past the 4th round of Wimbledon and most actually had Federer as the favourite there even with Roger close to 33 years old. He doesn't need Novak to play badly to win and was over the hill by years and yet still had 2 match points in both those successive US Open semis in 2010 and 2011 and frankly should've at least won one of them.

You even quoted me and then disagreed :lolz:

Nole was the dominant one in that final, brother. From the first through to Roger stealing the fourth, and then Nole winning the fifth.

Regardless, if Nole plays Roger in a slam, it shouldn't be going to five - it should be like the Oz semi...

 

[Front242]

^ Roger made an awful mess of that 3rd set TB and handed it to him. He made Novak the dominant player right there by going down 2 sets to 1 but he wasn't the dominant player till then. Who won the first set after all and as in many of their slam matches for that matter even after Roger has been well past it.

 

[DarthFed]

Why even bother responding to Kieran on this. A day before the final he was saying Roger should/would win and then Roger goes down and suddenly he did amazing to make it to 5 on GRASS vs. Novak. It's clear Kieran has always thought Roger is a scrub who just gets lucky time to time. Truth is Roger has no business losing to guys like Nole and Rafa on grass, and numbers/common sense backs that up.

 

[Moxie]

One aspect I am curious about is how one of the potential future GS winners, Grigor will play and hold his ground once a top 8.
Here in Canada he will be for the first time ranked as such, so he better take advantage of it. Milos did a pretty good job all spring being ranked top 8 in the Big events. Now he plays as he belongs.

Back to topic, Nole better take advantage of this USO, as this is a great opportunity. He has momentum and he should focus and capitalize on it. His biggest wastes were here at the USO.

I always considered it the Aussie Open with only one title, injuries during the event, and of course the times he's missed it altogether! :nono :angel:

I thought herios was talking about Nole there. I think you're talking about Nadal.

 

[nehmeth]

^^
:snigger Fiero doesn't discriminate; he'll take a shot at Rafa no matter what the thread/post is about. :snigger

 

[Kieran]

Why even bother responding to Kieran on this. A day before the final he was saying Roger should/would win and then Roger goes down and suddenly he did amazing to make it to 5 on GRASS vs. Novak. It's clear Kieran has always thought Roger is a scrub who just gets lucky time to time. Truth is Roger has no business losing to guys like Nole and Rafa on grass, and numbers/common sense backs that up.

Seriously? I said the word "should"?

I probably said "could" and you mistook it for something else.

Fact: Nole was the dominant player in the final - and so he "should" be, against a 32 year old. Roger showed his mettle in getting to five...

 

[Front242]

Most had Roger as the favourite before it started which is what is being discussed. Check the polls and other forums.

 

[Front242]

Roger in 4 was the dominant pick by everyone including you, Kieran

http://www.tennisfrontier.com/forum/showthread.php?tid=2670&pid=116095#pid116095

 

[Kieran]

Roger in 4 was the dominant pick by everyone including you, Kieran

http://www.tennisfrontier.com/forum/showthread.php?tid=2670&pid=116095#pid116095

Yep, I chose Roger to win, and I explained why. That isn't the same as saying he "should" win. That's a different matter. Nole rose to the occasion and won - as he "should", when playing an older guy. I didn't have much confidence in Nole going into that final...