Nole's Next Year

[lacatch]

I'm curious about what people predict about Nole's likely performance during the next year. I think that the Wimbledon victory will help him big time, but am also a bit concerned about the impact of his recent marriage and upcoming baby. I'm just not sure that Nole will be able to compartmentalize his professional and personal lives and handle it as well as Federer....

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I think he has been with Jalena for so many years that marriage is just a technicality here.
The baby part is new though. But, too much is made out of these things. He will handle
everything fine.

In 2015, I will give him two slams.

 

[nehmeth]

Becoming a father is going to be huge for Novak. If there's anything a fan can learn from observation, he will want to be very much involved in the "process". In the day to day, I would venture that he will also be getting up at night to rock, cuddle and sing to their baby.
uzzled

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ednb5z_EF_0

Well hopefully not sing. :nono

During tournaments there are ways to ensure the routine remains on point with little distraction. Finally, there is the joy/pride factor of fatherhood, and that could well motivate him even more than being a dad would ever detract. We will see.

 

[TennisFanatic7]

Djokovic has a great chance to go into a really dominant phase of his career again here. Federer is fading, despite his best efforts, Murray is currently AWOL and Nadal hasn't looked too hot this year by his standards apart from at Roland Garros.

If his Wimbledon win allows Novak to shake his grand slam final demons, he is currently out on his own as the best player on tour and should be looking to take at least two majors next year.

 

[Kieran]

It's hard to know with Novak. I think the pattern of his career is set: he blows hot and cold. This will continue. Marriage will change him, and having a child will change him, but who knows if it's for the benefit of his tennis...

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

I think having a baby helps your volleys. I am serious. You want to finish your match quicker to go home to see your baby, so you have to finish points quicker, hence, volleys improve...:snigger

 

[nehmeth]

Djokovic has a great chance to go into a really dominant phase of his career again here. Federer is fading, despite his best efforts, Murray is currently AWOL and Nadal hasn't looked too hot this year by his standards apart from at Roland Garros.

If his Wimbledon win allows Novak to shake his grand slam final demons, he is currently out on his own as the best player on tour and should be looking to take at least two majors next year.

:clap :clap :clap

This would be an excellent outcome.

 

[Riotbeard]

I am more optomistic than I have been in the past. For one thing, wimbledon is a more mentally motivating slam win than AO that while good, for Novak probably feels more like holding your own territory than conquering someone else's. He should ride a wave confidence in to the USO and hopefully next year. I think he will handle fatherhood well. Let's not forget these people are super rice, they can be engaged parents without having to get up in the middle of the night during a tournament.

 

[Moxie]

I was looking for a thread about his wrist, specifically, but didn't find it. Billie posted this about Nole's wrist issues and his neck/disk issues, and subsequent surgeries.

http://www.b92.net/sport/tenis/vesti.php?yyyy=2014&mm=05&dd=23&nav_id=852055

It's very interesting. Get googletranslate to translate it for you. It appears that it wasn't the wrist, but the disks in the neck, and he's had some minor surgeries to correct it. Did I get that right, Billie?

 

[Billie]

I was looking for a thread about his wrist, specifically, but didn't find it. Billie posted this about Nole's wrist issues and his neck/disk issues, and subsequent surgeries.

http://www.b92.net/sport/tenis/vesti.php?yyyy=2014&mm=05&dd=23&nav_id=852055

It's very interesting. Get googletranslate to translate it for you. It appears that it wasn't the wrist, but the disks in the neck, and he's had some minor surgeries to correct it. Did I get that right, Billie?

yes Moxie, that is correct, that is in short what the article says.

 

[Moxie]

I was looking for a thread about his wrist, specifically, but didn't find it. Billie posted this about Nole's wrist issues and his neck/disk issues, and subsequent surgeries.

http://www.b92.net/sport/tenis/vesti.php?yyyy=2014&mm=05&dd=23&nav_id=852055

It's very interesting. Get googletranslate to translate it for you. It appears that it wasn't the wrist, but the disks in the neck, and he's had some minor surgeries to correct it. Did I get that right, Billie?

yes Moxie, that is correct, that is in short what the article says.

Good, thanks for the corroboration. Interesting that this wasn't reported in the English-language press, but more interesting is that this is the diagnosis/solution. It doesn't appear that it was about his wrist, at all.

 

[El Dude]

Well if we look at the Big Four as a tennis player with its own career, I think what we are seeing right now is the transition from peak to plateau, and that 2015 to maybe 2018 will be the plateau phase of the "career." I think we'll start seeing a Slam a year, maybe even two, taken by some other players - although it is hard to think of many players other than the Big Four that could win a Slam next year. But maybe one each year in 2014-15 or 2016 and two in 2017-18, with 2018 or 2019 being the year that more Slams than not are won by different players.

2018 is also the year that some of the excellent young pups--Zverev, Coric, Tiafoe, Garin--will be coming into that 20-22 age zone when players start hitting their stride. In 2018 Nick Kyrgios will be 23 and might already be an elite player. Dimitrov will be 26-27 and hopefully have a Slam trophy or two on his shelf.

All that said, I think Novak is the dominant player among the Big Four going forward. Rafa will have his moments, but won't consistently dominate. Things can only go in one direction for Roger, if at a slow rate of decline, and Andy is just all over the place and I question whether he has it in him to even win one more Slam. Certainly no more than 1-2, unless we see a massive transformation in his mentality.

So I think Novak is the favorite going into the USO and will win 1-2 Slams next year, which will give him 9-10 Slams total by the end of 2015 at the age of 28. It is hard to predict beyond that, but I think he ends with 11 or 12 Slams, maybe 13-14 in a best-case scenario. But in order to do that he'll have to win 3 Slams before the end of 2015, which would give him 10 halfway through his age 28 year.

Anyhow, what we don't know is how Novak will decline. It is hard to imagine him moving like he does into his 30s, but you never know. Once he loses a step or two in his movement he probably loses his #1-2 status and slips into the #3-5 range. But again, his outward decline will be slowed by a weak younger generation. But I think the window for the Big Four really starts to close in 2017-18, when "Generation Kyrzveric" starts to come into its own.

 

[nehmeth]

^^ E.D., I think I will save this one somewhere. It will be fun to see how the future stars step up in the next couple of years.

I wondered what your thoughts are with regard to a couple things...

- since Novak was very young, the stretching aspect has been an integral part of his regimen, with an eye toward longevity in the game.

- his eating habits, and lifestyle changes over the past few years.

Time eventually slows down everyone. I'm interested to see if these things he so wholeheartedly believes in will delay the inevitable.

 

[El Dude]

I think they will, nehmeth. He is gluten-free, right? That is huge. Maybe you can convince him to go dairy-free as well. But how we eat does impact our aging, and he obviously has an incredible fitness regime. Does he do yoga?

That said, speaking from personal experience, parenting ages us more quickly! And tennis, like any sport, is a game of inches, so little things can add up to a lot and then you have situations like Roger falling apart last year, second-guessing himself.

By the way, I hate going on record as saying that Kyrgios, Zverev, Coric, and maybe Garin and Tiafoe will be the next dominant group in the game, as it is just too early to tell. But someone has to do it, and they seem to be the best hope that is within range. I think a peak Dimitrov and Raonic, and maybe Vesely and Thiem, will challenge a declining Big Four, maybe even a plateau-ing Big Four, but they won't dominate.

 

[nehmeth]

^^ I'm not holding you to your projections E.D. :snigger

It will be fun to see how these young guys mature and see which ones (if any) have the "it" factor of the multi-slam champions we've been so privileged to watch for the past decade.

 

[Moxie]

^ I wonder that, too, or if it'll be several guys splitting them up over a period of time before the next "legend" comes along. I looked up the list of Slam winners and 'randomly' selected between 2000-2004. I counted 11 different winners in 20 events.

We might be going into a period like that again, as the Big Four fade, unless a new rockstar (or 3) emerges.

Surely, (most of) the Big 4 have a few more Slam titles in them. And if Del Potro can come back in some kind of shape, he might get a couple more. Which makes sense why Dimitrov may have waited too long to make his move, or why timing was against him. I agree that Raonic will only do so much. But when the top guys stop featuring, it'll be interesting to see who rises up.

 

[nehmeth]

^ I wonder that, too, or if it'll be several guys splitting them up over a period of time before the next "legend" comes along. I looked up the list of Slam winners and 'randomly' selected between 2000-2004. I counted 11 different winners in 20 events.

We might be going into a period like that again, as the Big Four fade, unless a new rockstar (or 3) emerges.

Great stat! Great idea to check it out... I never would have guessed it was that many different slam winners. :nono

.... wasn't your guy Marat one of those winners?? 2000 U.S. Open I believe.

 

[El Dude]

^ I wonder that, too, or if it'll be several guys splitting them up over a period of time before the next "legend" comes along. I looked up the list of Slam winners and 'randomly' selected between 2000-2004. I counted 11 different winners in 20 events.

We might be going into a period like that again, as the Big Four fade, unless a new rockstar (or 3) emerges.

Surely, (most of) the Big 4 have a few more Slam titles in them. And if Del Potro can come back in some kind of shape, he might get a couple more. Which makes sense why Dimitrov may have waited too long to make his move, or why timing was against him. I agree that Raonic will only do so much. But when the top guys stop featuring, it'll be interesting to see who rises up.

Moxie, I've posited much the same thing - that once the Big Four start to significantly decline, we'll undergo a (short?) era similar to the late 90s to early 00s between Sampras' peak and Federer's ascension in 2004. Now of course while Pete started declining around 1998 or so, Andre Agassi pulled up the slack a bit and had his best year in '99 and was #1 as late as 2003. But that might partially be because it was a weak era, with a generational gap. Consider that no 4+ Slam winner was born in the years between 1971 (when Pete Sampras was born) to 1981 (when Roger Federer was born). That is the largest gap among Open Era players. The closest was Gustavo Kuerten (1976), who won 3 Slams.

Right now the youngest 4+ Slam winner is, of course, Novak Djokovic, born in 1987. Usually the gap is five years or less. If you start with Ken Rosewall (1934) and you go all the way to Djokovic (1987), the gaps in birth years range widely, with Sampras-Federer being the longest (10 years), then Newcombe-Connors/Vilas (8 years), then Laver-Newcombe (6 years). All the other gaps are five years or less; here's the complete list from Rosewall to Djokovic:

Rosewall-Emerson (2 years)
Emerson-Laver (2 years)
Laver-Newcombe (6 years)
Newcombe-Connors/Vilas (8 years)
Connors/Vilas-Borg (4 years)
Borg-McEnroe (3 years)
McEnroe-Lendl (1 year)
Lendl-Wilander (4 years)
Wilander-Edberg (2 years)
Edberg-Becker (1 year)
Becker-Agassi/Courier (3 years)
Agassi/Courier-Sampras (1 year)
Sampras-Federer (10 years)
Federer-Nadal (5 years)
Nadal-Djokovic (1 year)

Among players born after Novak that have a chance of being a 4+ Slam winner, there aren't many serious contenders within five years. Del Potro is 1 year (1988), Raonic is 3 years (1990), Dimitrov 4 years (1991), and then you have Thiem and Vesely at 6 years (1993), Kyrgios at 8 years (1995), Coric and Garin at 9 years (1996), Zverev at 10 years (1997) and Tiafoe at 11 years (1998). One would think that, among those listed, we'll (hopefully!) have at least one 4+ Slam winner. Of course it could be someone whose name we don't even know yet - but those seem the most likely candidates.

 

[Moxie]

^ Dude, that's amazing organizing of stats. Know that I was channeling you when I even tried a puny look at a few years. But your list of gaps in age between multiple Slam winners explains my little guppy look at 2000-2004, given that the biggest gap was between Sampras and Federer. The big 3-4 still have a decent lock on at least getting most of the Slams for a couple of years, I'd wager. Given that, would you say that we're more likely to go into a period of multiple players winning Majors, after about 2016, or find a couple-3 who will dominate? It's hard to predict how the young group will do, of course. Nehmeth mention Safin, who was a big favorite of mine, in the list of 11 in that 20 Slam spread. He's a prime example of someone everyone thought would be the new best player…and then they wasn't.

Personally, I think, once the Big 4 can't reliably make SFs an Fs anymore, I'm expecting a period where we see a bunch of different guys win majors, and only get a few each. Unless someone turns into the fenom, or we get the superstar to be named later.

 

[lacatch]

Ah Moxie---clinging to the vision that your hombre is still going to win many more slams When you say that "the big 3-4 still have a decent lock on at least getting most of the Slams for the next couple of years", you really are assuring yourself that NADAL will win several more and pass Federer. That time when the Big 4 (which is really not the Big 4 anymore) will no longer clean up is sooner than you think....