Nitto ATP Finals, 2019, London

[Fiero425]

Nadal was far from his best, but even at his best , on this fast hc, and ziraffe serving that well, think he would lose anyways.
He will look better against the other two, they didn’t serve that well.
Still aiming for our dream F: Novak-Nadal

Well you can always dream! This is the way I wanted it to go; showing Nadal's ineptitude this time of the season! Nole deserve #1 IMO! :whistle:

 

[Moxie]

It's the God's honest Truth

He has more money than he can ever spend, and he doesn't even live a lavish lifestyle. Now, I'm sure he's happy to make money for his foundation so it can keep doing good work for kids in disadvantaged circumstances, but I doubt he'd play this tournament for any other reason than to try to win it and to get the YE#1. He's been forced to let his #1 go before, due to injury, and I'm betting that he didn't want to let this chance go without a fight.

 

[Moxie]

Well you can always dream! This is the way I wanted it to go; showing Nadal's ineptitude this time of the season! Nole deserve #1 IMO!

The surface doesn't suit his game, that is well-known, but he's not "inept." He still beats a lot of the field on indoor HC. Same as Roger esp. and Novak somewhat on clay. They've done well enough on it, but are more vulnerable. IF Novak gains back the #1 and ends the year as #1, then he will have deserved it. But he and Nadal had very close years, so it's really only your bias that makes it a clear choice - to you. Both won two majors, and Nadal made one more Major final than Novak did. Novak has one more title, but it was in Tokyo against basically no one.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

My commies kept saying if Novak wins everything now he secures the YE#1. The math doesnt add up, but these people tend to get the right info for these types of things.

What say you @GameSetAndMath

Yes, if Novak wins all his matches (can't lose even a single RR match) he secures #1 ranking.

Current lead of Rafa is 440 pts. Even if Rafa wins the next two matches and the semifinals, his lead would only improve to
440 + 2*200 + 400 = 1240.

But that can be overcome by Novak getting two more RR wins, SF win and F win (400 +400 +500 = 1300).

If Rafa loses one more match, Novak can afford to lose a RR match and still get to #1 by winning WTF.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

My prediction for today:

Daniil and Nadal in two sets.

You are on a roll. Got two out of two

 

[Moxie]

You are on a roll. Got two out of two

I could see why most picked Medvedev, though I did think Tsitsipas had a chance, as he tends to be more aggressive. Medvedev was today, but Tsitsipas was the better. He really needed that win, let's face it. At least one good thing happened today. Nothing against Daniil, but I have the Greek on my short list for future fave. Also thought Zverev could be trouble, but never expected that drubbing.

 

[calitennis127]

Both one two majors, and Nadal made one more Major final than Novak did. Novak has one more title, but it was in Tokyo against basically no one.

HOMONYM alert: both WON two majors.

 

[Moxie]

HOMONYM alert: both WON two majors.

Oops...thanks!

 

[calitennis127]

Well, that sucked. Really terrible Nadal. But very good Zverev, so good on him. His serving woes seem to be behind him.

I disagree. He was serving indoors without having to battle any of the elements and he still had spurts where he could not make a first serve to save his life. Even though I of course enjoyed seeing Nadal get pummeled like that, it never surprises me on an indoor hard court, and Zverev's game does not translate well to best-of-5 matches at the Slams outdoors.

That's the perfect court for him to beat Nadal, and to his credit, he took advantage of it. But we shouldn't read anymore into it than that.

 

[calitennis127]

Straight set loss too, which may matter in terms of getting into the semis. I think especially Medvedev has a good shot against Nadal.

Then still re yeno1 Novak still needs to beat them all, which is certainly not going to be easy.

Djokovic has a clear path to winning this event, and it's on him to take advantage of it. But it is not going to be easy. Both Thiem and Federer are going to give him some challenges, and assuming he is the 1 seed from his side, he will have a tough semi on his hands whether it is Medvedev or Zverev. I actually think Nadal might only be the third toughest match-up from his group for Djokovic, so Djokovic might prefer Nadal getting the 2 seed so he has to play him in the semi (assuming Nadal even makes it out of his group which after today is questionable).

The O2 court is terrible for Nadal's game, just terrible - especially against Djokovic. Tsitsipas might even be a tougher match-up for Djokovic on that court than Nadal is.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Rafa is the top dog in his group. The top player gets the advantage of playing the weakest player (based on rankings) first in RR matches.
So, theoretically speaking the other two matches (ignoring the match-up issues) are supposed to be tougher than today's match for Rafa.
That is the worst part of Rafa's loss.

On the other hand, Roger is not the top dog in his group and so he did not have the luxury of playing the weakest player first. He got a tough match right at the beginning.

 

[Moxie]

I disagree. He was serving indoors without having to battle any of the elements and he still had spurts where he could not make a first serve to save his life. Even though I of course enjoyed seeing Nadal get pummeled like that, it never surprises me on an indoor hard court, and Zverev's game does not translate well to best-of-5 matches at the Slams outdoors.

That's the perfect court for him to beat Nadal, and to his credit, he took advantage of it. But we shouldn't read anymore into it than that.

I'm not sure I'm reading anything more into it, either, though he really did have some yips on his serve, and he's much more confident with it now. His first serve percentage was pretty high, and only 2 DFs, which is a lot better than where he has been. I don't see why you say that his game doesn't "translate" to Bo5. He hasn't done well in it, but isn't that more mental than anything else? (It used to be fitness, but that really should be behind him now.) Does anyone's game not translate to Bo5? I think not doing well at majors is a different issue.

 

[Moxie]

Rafa is the top dog in his group. The top player gets the advantage of playing the weakest player (based on rankings) first in RR matches.
So, theoretically speaking the other two matches (ignoring the match-up issues) are supposed to be tougher than today's match for Rafa.
That is the worst part of Rafa's loss.

On the other hand, Roger is not the top dog in his group and so he did not have the luxury of playing the weakest player first. He got a tough match right at the beginning.

OK, I know you're trying to soften the blow on Roger's side, but Rafa did play the defending champ. Still, based on Rafa's performance today, I don't like his chances going forward. All UFEs and hardly any winners. And he was tentative all day.

 

[calitennis127]

I'm not sure I'm reading anything more into it, either, though he really did have some yips on his serve, and he's much more confident with it now. His first serve percentage was pretty high, and only 2 DFs, which is a lot better than where he has been. I don't see why you say that his game doesn't "translate" to Bo5. He hasn't done well in it, but isn't that more mental than anything else? (It used to be fitness, but that really should be behind him now.) Does anyone's game not translate to Bo5? I think not doing well at majors is a different issue.

I think his game is far too predicated on the serve and hitting big with the forehand.....there is no plan B or back-up to that. Indoors it's all well and good to be that way because the conditions are perfect and the bounces are never irregular. But what about when it is 90 degrees or it's windy? What about when the court is chewed up at Wimbledon? What about on clay when the points are longer? What about at the US Open when it's muggy and you're not in a groove? What about when you are having an error-prone day at the Australian Open and it's 95 degrees out?

Don't get me wrong, I think Zverev is talented. But I think he really has to work on his conditioning and his side-to-side quickness. He has moments where he is quick but more often than not he looks sluggish.

 

[calitennis127]

OK, I know you're trying to soften the blow on Roger's side, but Rafa did play the defending champ. Still, based on Rafa's performance today, I don't like his chances going forward. All UFEs and hardly any winners. And he was tentative all day.

I don't think he was tentative. He was simply uncomfortable and his timing was a little bit off. This court is too slow for him and it provides no kick at all with his topspin. At the US Open his topspin causes his shots to jump off the court more and almost skid at times. At the O2 his shots die and sit in the air. And after playing there so many times I don't really think there are any adjustments he can make to it. It just doesn't suit his game at all.

I also think Nadal likes some pace coming at him on hardcourts because he can just reflexively wack his shots back into play. At the O2 the ball dies and sits in the air unless it is hit flat at 90+ mph, in which case there is nothing that can be done with it on any court including this one.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

OK, I know you're trying to soften the blow on Roger's side.

Sorry, truth hurts.

Sasha may be the defending champ. But his level is nowhere near to his level last year.

 

[Moxie]

I think his game is far too predicated on the serve and hitting big with the forehand.....there is no plan B or back-up to that. Indoors it's all well and good to be that way because the conditions are perfect and the bounces are never irregular. But what about when it is 90 degrees or it's windy? What about when the court is chewed up at Wimbledon? What about on clay when the points are longer? What about at the US Open when it's muggy and you're not in a groove? What about when you are having an error-prone day at the Australian Open and it's 95 degrees out?

Don't get me wrong, I think Zverev is talented. But I think he really has to work on his conditioning and his side-to-side quickness. He has moments where he is quick but more often than not he looks sluggish.

Actually, I think his BH is his bigger shot than the FH. Obviously the serve has to work for him. He's a tall guy. He's fairly speedy, but could do with better footwork. As to his fitness, he needs to get stronger, but he's no wilting flower. The first time I saw him play live was at the USO '15, when he was 17, on a brutally hot, humid day, and he went 5 sets with Kohly, (and lost, 4-6 in the 5th.) Which is why I've always had faith in his future. Not sure why he hasn't gone deeper in Slams, to date, but I don't think it's for lack of ambition or talent.

 

[Moxie]

Sorry, truth hurts.

Sasha may be the defending champ. But his level is nowhere near to his level last year.

Funny, a lot of us thought that he's caught a new wave since the Laver Cup. Surely his serve is better than it was the first part of the year. And he beat Roger in Shanghai.

 

[Moxie]

I don't think he was tentative. He was simply uncomfortable and his timing was a little bit off. This court is too slow for him and it provides no kick at all with his topspin. At the US Open his topspin causes his shots to jump off the court more and almost skid at times. At the O2 his shots die and sit in the air. And after playing there so many times I don't really think there are any adjustments he can make to it. It just doesn't suit his game at all.

I also think Nadal likes some pace coming at him on hardcourts because he can just reflexively wack his shots back into play. At the O2 the ball dies and sits in the air unless it is hit flat at 90+ mph, in which case there is nothing that can be done with it on any court including this one.

I'm not sure of the difference between "tentative" and he was "uncomfortable and his timing was a bit off." Again with the court speed? By all accounts it's fast, not slow. But it definitely gives no kick for his topspin. And yes, kills whatever is generally difficult about his shots. Still, today he hit a lot short, and straight back at Zverev. He had no angles, and won very little off the FH, which is rare for him. Serve sucked. He needed more free points, or better point starters.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Funny, a lot of us thought that he's caught a new wave since the Laver Cup. Surely his serve is better than it was the first part of the year. And he beat Roger in Shanghai.

Sure, definitely he improved since the Laver cup. But, invoking defending champion clause is not much relevant considering he barely qualified for WTF this time at the last minute.