Nadal turns 28 at FO 14. How many more slams will he win?

[StantheMan]

This is indeed an important question for Rafa in the GOAT debate.

Consider these daunting facts:

1. In the last 30 years only 15 of 121 GSs have been won by players aged 28 years or older.
2. Since 1984 only 4 players ie Agassi, Sampras, Lendl and Federer have been able to win more than.
1 after age 28.


http://www.forbes.com/sites/allenstjohn/2014/01/26/did-rafael-nadals-australian-open-loss-cost-him-a-chance-to-top-roger-federer-as-the-greatest-of-all-time/


My guesstimate is that Nadal probably only has at most 2 or 3 more GSs in him. Maybe that is why he was crying after his loss in the AO 2014 final. Nadal probably realizes that his chance to equal or beat Roger's slam record flew out the window last weekend.

 

[Moxie]

However, Rafa has always tracked Federer on the Slam count, and he is still on the same track, by age.

 

[Front242]

No one plays by rule books from stats. He may win none, he may win 3, he may win 6. Who knows. And don't forget there's always the (albeit slim) possibility Federer wins another. Maybe Murray and Djokovic go on a tear. and deprive everyone of these next few. It's anyone's guess.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

As I mentioned in some other thread, AO 2014 is the 37th slam that Nadal has
played and it is the 19th final he has reached. This translates to saying that he reaches
the finals of about half of the slams he plays in. While I have not checked the record
books, it is no brainer to realize that this is a high success ratio.

To boot, once he reaches the finals, he wins it about 2/3 of time. His record
in GS finals is 13-6 (3 losses to Djokovic,2 to Fed and 1 to Stan).

So, net result seems to be that he wins in 1/3rd of slams that he participates in.
Assuming he plays 15 more slams, with that ratio he would take 5 more slams.
That would make his tally 18. However, to play in 15 slams will probably require
a period of 20 slams for Nadal as he often misses slams due to various injuries.
That 20 slams translates to 5 years. So, it would take Rafa 5 more years to
surpass a (static) Fed.

However, as I mentioned before, the success rate is bound to decrease with age.
So, it may be unreasonable to expect that he would get the same success rate in future
as he did in the past (which is what the above analysis assumes).

Fed has clearly demonstrated that he is back by his almost vintage performance
at AO'14. Even though he also demonstrated that he cannot solve Nadal Problem
by his miserable play in the semifinals, he does not have to necessarily solve Nadal problem
to win another GS. He may win it in some slam in which Nadal does not even enter
or he may win it in slams in which Nadal is taken out by some other heavy hitter.
So, at any rate it is certainly conceivable that Fed will get at least one more slam
(if not more).

So, this thing will be neck and neck until both retire and we all fans should
like that as it gives us something to talk about.

Also, I think even though Nadal is much younger, it might be the case the
both Fed and Nadal retire at about the same time. This is because Nadal's body
has gone through a lot over the years and he most probably cannot last that longer.

I also have another feeling that when Nadal's body deteriorates, his decline
will be very fast and dramatic. When he gets there, he is not going to spend one year
in 3-4 rankings, another year in 5-6 ranking, another year in 7-8 rankings, another
year in top 10 etc. I think his decline will be very fast and the duration between
outside of top 4 to outside of top 16 will probably be just one year for Nadal.

 

[DarthFed]

However, Rafa has always tracked Federer on the Slam count, and he is still on the same track, by age.

Roger had 15 just before turning 28. Rafa basically has a chance (and of course an excellent chance) of getting #14 as he turns 28.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

I would say 3 more likely, 4 more possible. Either 2 more RGs and a hard court slam, or 2 more RGs, 1 hard and 1 more Wimby. Wimby has not been kind to him last couple of years, but he gets past the first week, anything is possible.

 

[DarthFed]

Well to my mind he has won 13 too many, I'm sure he'll piss me off and win a bunch more...

 

[Front242]

:laydownlaughing:snigger

 

[TsarMatt]

I can see him winning at least 3-4 more.

 

[El Dude]

While I agree with Front242, its fun to speculate. I think he'll win 4 more and finish with 17.

 

[atttomole]

I can see him winning at least 3-4 more.

I see at least 5 more slams from Nadal, and 2 from Federer.

 

[Front242]

I can see him winning at least 3-4 more.

I see at least 5 more slams from Nadal, and 2 from Federer.

Would be pretty hilarious if Rafa won 5 first and then no more and thought he had the record in the bag and then Fed won 2 more just before retiring :laydownlaughing I'd piss myself.

 

[atttomole]

I can see him winning at least 3-4 more.

I see at least 5 more slams from Nadal, and 2 from Federer.

Would be pretty hilarious if Rafa won 5 first and then no more and thought he had the record in the bag and then Fed won 2 more just before retiring :laydownlaughing I'd piss myself.

I also think it will be very close between them, so they have to decide carefully when to retire. They play as long as they can stand on their feet.

 

[Front242]

Well, there can be only one..

 

[Mog]

As I mentioned in some other thread, AO 2014 is the 37th slam that Nadal has
played and it is the 19th final he has reached. This translates to saying that he reaches
the finals of about half of the slams he plays in. While I have not checked the record
books, it is no brainer to realize that this is a high success ration.

To boot, once he reaches the finals, he wins it about 2/3 of time. His record
in GS finals is 13-6 (3 losses to Djokovic,2 to Fed and 1 to Stan).

So, net result seems to be that he wins in 1/3rd of slams that he participates in.
Assuming he plays 15 more slams, with that ratio he would take 5 more slams.
That would make his tally 18. However, to play in 15 slams will probably require
a period of 20 slams for Nadal as he often misses slams due to various injuries.
That 20 slams translates to 5 years. So, it would take Rafa 5 more years to
surpass a (static) Fed.

However, as I mentioned before, the success rate is bound to decrease with age.o
So, it may be unreasonable to expect that he would get the same success rate in future
as he did in the past (which is what the above analysis assumes).

Fed has clearly demonstrated that he is back by his almost vintage performance
at AO'14. Even though he also demonstrated that he cannot solve Nadal Problem
by his miserable play in the semifinals, he does not have to necessarily Nadal problem
to win another GS. He may win it in some slam in which Nadal does not even enter
or he may win it in slams in which Nadal is taken out by some other heavy hitter.
So, at any rate it is certainly conceivable that Fed will get at least one more slam
(if not more).

So, this thing will be neck and neck until both retire and we all fans should
like that as it gives us something to talk about.

Also, I think even though Nadal is much younger, it might be the case the
both Fed and Nadal retire at about the same time. This is because Nadal's body
has gone through a lot over the years and he most probably cannot last that longer.

I also have another feeling that when Nadal's body deteriorates, his decline
will be very fast and dramatic. When he gets there, he is not going to spend one year
in 3-4 rankings, another year in 5-6 ranking, another year in 7-8 rankings, another
year in top 10 etc. I think his decline will be very fast and the duration between
outside of top 4 to outside of top 16 will probably be just one year for Nadal.

Very good post GSM.
Covered it from all angles and possibilities.
Rafa's destination distance to reach 17GS record has gone bit farther after the AO loss
At the moment he is the only one who can do it but will get more difficult because Nole, Murray and some others could be in his way to stop him. We will see.
I think he will have up to 3 more. His age year by year and injuries could also be the factors

 

[brokenshoelace]

28.

 

[Moxie]

:lolz: Perhaps OP should keep trying to get a different answer.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

how many more majors ?..dunno, could be a few, could be one or zero..who knows ?..

be interesting to see how this 'back spasm' thing plays out..was it an unluckily timed one off event or the start of something more sinister. it will have an effect on his potential to win majors..if the latter, and what of his seemingly recovered knee(s) ?.

someone is going to have to play some mental tennis to stop rafa at the French open in the next year or three at least.

 

[Front242]

how many more majors ?..dunno, could be a few, could be one or zero..who knows ?..

be interesting to see how this 'back spasm' thing plays out..was it an unluckily timed one off event or the start of something more sinister. it will have an effect on his potential to win majors..if the latter, and what of his seemingly recovered knee(s) ?.

someone is going to have to play some mental tennis to stop rafa at the French open in the next year or three at least.

Depends on whether he's a full on clone of the hunchback of Notre Dame by then or not I guess.

 

[nehmeth]

I say 4.

But for the back going out on him, he may well have tied Sampras at 14 last Sunday. Pretty sure he will reach 14 at the French. I'd like to see him tie Fed wherever Fed ends his slam count. That will make the Sampras/Fed "goat debates" of 2008 look like tea time with a bunch of little girls and their dolls.