Miami Open, Miami, FL, 2025 - ATP 1000

[El Dude]

I do think Novak is capable of winning another Slam, but I think the odds are stacked against him, especially if and when Alcaraz goes into god-mode and Sinner comes back strong. The pups are cut from a different cloth than Next Gen (let alone Lost Gen) - they aren't as afraid of Novak, partially because Novak in 2025 isn't immortal like he was as recently as 2023, but partially because they just seem to have more stones (and perhaps more talent) than the Medvedev-Zverev-Tsitsipas-Rublev-Fritz crew.

And with each passing day, these guys get better and better. I'm guessing that it will be another year or two before Mensik finds his level, but he's definitely in the mix now. Fonseca and maybe Tien should be in a similar place sometime within the next year or so, if not sooner, and Fils has been playing better (though I expect him and Tien to be more second tier guys).

Novak was great as recently as a year and a half ago, at the end of 2023, and he's played well at times since then. But the writing is definitely on the wall. He turns 38 in less than two months, which is the age Roger turned in 2019, which was his last close-to-prime year. Now of course Roger got injured and we don't know how long he could have maintained that level, but injury is part of getting older. Rafa's last prime-ish year was 2022, when he was 35-36 - and he also finally fell to injury.

Novak is preternaturally immune to injury, but no one avoids Father Time. So if Rafa was essentially done at 36 and Roger at 38, I might given Novak an extra year or two--but no more than that. I think the best-case scenario is that he's the Old Man Agassi of the tour for 2024-26ish. Consider Agassi's Slam wins and losses 1999-2003:
Wins: A Medvedev, Martin, Kafelnikov, Clement, Schuettler.
Losses: Sampras, Sampras, Federer.

Meaning, he lost when he faced a great, won when he faced a lesser player - and two of those guys (Clement and Schuettler) weren't even really top 10 guys, but more there due to a weaker era.

So the question for Novak is, can he play well enough to defeat a Sinner or Alcaraz in a Slam final or will he need the Draw Gods to help him out? Even if the latter, he still has a chance. Alcaraz could go walk-about and be taken out early, and maybe Jannik comes back rusty. Maybe Novak faces Casper Ruud in the Roland Garros final, or Matteo Berrettini at Wimbledon. But the chances of meeting a Schuettler or Clement type in a Slam final is a lot less now than it was in 1999-2003.

 

[El Dude]

Not at all, but it becomes Tiring when a poster you know whom I am taking about always has to have a snipe at Rafa in all his postings, what he didnt win?when he was playing and now retired. Apparently Rafa still lives 'rent free' in his head

I love Fiero, but I've often teased him that he thinks if a player isn't peak Borg, he sucks.

Anyhow, that was the closest thing to a "wtf, you're an idiot" expression I could find from Rafa.

 

[Fiero425]

"Hey Rafa, does the fact that you never won Miami tarnish your record?"

View attachment 10016

Typical hypocritical BS! So many who "poo-poo" my pointing out Rafa's failures were the same people slapping Novak up the head about "NO OGM" until last yr.! Mission accomplished in the twilite of his career & the Fedal fans can't handle it! They have nothing to fall back on now! The #1 GOAT, BOAT, whatever moniker you want to throw out there has to boomerang around to hit Novak every time as he has the most complete resume out there w/ multiple championships at every venue! That is something no other player; esp. Rafa w/ NO YEC after all those yrs. on the tour! How does that happen? It took Novak 5 or 6 chances to get his Olympic Gold Medal! Rafa had a lot more opportunities to get a YEC & went bust! I love it! I have no shame in gloating over it! My great apprec. & satisfaction is w/ him busting the faces of all those people out there who undermined him from the start, calling him out character-wise, including Fedal, Roddick, even Kygrios who's come around!

 

[El Dude]

Typical hypocritical BS! So many who "poo-poo" my pointing out Rafa's failures were the same people slapping Novak up the head about "NO OGM" until last yr.! Mission accomplished in the twilite of his career & the Fedal fans can't handle it! They have nothing to fall back on now! The #1 GOAT, BOAT, whatever moniker you want to throw out there has to boomerang around to hit Novak every time as he has the most complete resume out there w/ multiple championships at every venue! That is something no other player; esp. Rafa w/ NO YEC after all those yrs. on the tour! How does that happen? It took Novak 5 or 6 chances to get his Olympic Gold Medal! Rafa had a lot more opportunities to get a YEC & went bust! I love it! I have no shame in gloating over it! My great apprec. & satisfaction is w/ him busting the faces of all those people out there who undermined him from the start, calling him out character-wise, including Fedal, Roddick, even Kygrios who's come around!

Who are you talking to? I've been saying Novak is the GOAT for several years now - really even going back to 2015 or 2016, after he had that crazy run from the end of 2014 to mid-2016. IIRC, I at least opened the door. I didn't give him the undisputed GOAT crown until maybe 2021 or 2023, but I thought as far back as 2015 that he might end up surpassing Fedal. So to put you at ease so you stop vituperating in my direction, I think Novak is the singular GOAT, with Fedal being a close 2-3 in some order (I think they're essentially tied).

And yes - I do think that the YEC is probably the biggest missing component of Rafa's resume. He and Wilander are the only ATGs who don't have a title there. But...this doesn't as much tarnish his resume as it does not add to it. He is still one of the three greatest players of the Open Era, and there's a huge gap between those three and #4, who most people agree is Sampras (with a few nodding to Borg).

And Miami? It barely registers.

But more to the point: Why do you insist on picking on Rafa in order to boost Novak? Doesn't Novak's resume speak for itself? Does he need to push anyone down? I think the gap between him and Fedal is substantial enough--even if not huge--to not require that sort of comparison. The irony is that you're doing exactly what you claim others of doing.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Who are you talking to? I've been saying Novak is the GOAT for several years now - really even going back to 2015 or 2016, after he had that crazy run from the end of 2014 to mid-2016. IIRC, I at least opened the door. I didn't give him the undisputed GOAT crown until maybe 2021 or 2023, but I thought as far back as 2015 that he might end up surpassing Fedal. So to put you at ease so you stop vituperating in my direction, I think Novak is the singular GOAT, with Fedal being a close 2-3 in some order (I think they're essentially tied).

And yes - I do think that the YEC is probably the biggest missing component of Rafa's resume. He and Wilander are the only ATGs who don't have a title there. But...this doesn't as much tarnish his resume as it does not add to it. He is still one of the three greatest players of the Open Era, and there's a huge gap between those three and #4, who most people agree is Sampras (with a few nodding to Borg).

And Miami? It barely registers.

But more to the point: Why do you insist on picking on Rafa in order to boost Novak? Doesn't Novak's resume speak for itself? Does he need to push anyone down? I think the gap between him and Fedal is substantial enough--even if not huge--to not require that sort of comparison. The irony is that you're doing exactly what you claim others of doing.

If you are talking of Novak getting a GS title in 2025
I feel Miami has exposed Novak in a lot of ways, this is a tournament the best of 3 sets, he had a easy draw to the final and lost to Mensik in straight sets, his movement was off and Mensik returned his serve with ease

Do you expect him able to 'grind out' during RG, granted he does have a day off he has entered a lot of tournaments before RG maybe too many,he will be 38 years old, he is not the favorite in my eyes.

What do you expect from that 'poster' who has been pushing Novak down our throats forever People in glass houses Hey? lol!
He can give it out but dosent like receiving it!

 

[Fiero425]

Who are you talking to? I've been saying Novak is the GOAT for several years now - really even going back to 2015 or 2016, after he had that crazy run from the end of 2014 to mid-2016. IIRC, I at least opened the door. I didn't give him the undisputed GOAT crown until maybe 2021 or 2023, but I thought as far back as 2015 that he might end up surpassing Fedal. So to put you at ease so you stop vituperating in my direction, I think Novak is the singular GOAT, with Fedal being a close 2-3 in some order (I think they're essentially tied).

And yes - I do think that the YEC is probably the biggest missing component of Rafa's resume. He and Wilander are the only ATGs who don't have a title there. But...this doesn't as much tarnish his resume as it does not add to it. He is still one of the three greatest players of the Open Era, and there's a huge gap between those three and #4, who most people agree is Sampras (with a few nodding to Borg).

And Miami? It barely registers.

But more to the point: Why do you insist on picking on Rafa in order to boost Novak? Doesn't Novak's resume speak for itself? Does he need to push anyone down? I think the gap between him and Fedal is substantial enough--even if not huge--to not require that sort of comparison. The irony is that you're doing exactly what you claim others of doing.

It's not you; more the tennis world! If I see bullying of any sort, I see red! I can remember after all these yrs. Roger & A-Rod defaming & trying to undermine Novak's character! He obviously fixed the breathing & gluten issue & we saw the difference w/ great success right away! They've all come around & keep their fk'n mouthes shut now, but it's on vid for all to see! The great thing is NOVAK's a real mensch, who's a good guy, friendly (not standoff-ish or stupid like some on tour), is forgiving, & moves on! I'd of told those jerks like his old man does to "GTH!"

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

It's not you; more the tennis world! If I see bullying of any sort, I see red! I can remember after all these yrs. Roger & A-Rod defaming & trying to undermine Novak's character! He obviously fixed the breathing & gluten issue & we saw the difference w/ great success right away! They've all come around & keep their fk'n mouthes shut now, but it's on vid for all to see! The great thing is NOVAK's a real mensch, who's a good guy, friendly (not standoff-ish or stupid like some on tour), is forgiving, & moves on! I'd of told those jerks like his old man does to "GTH!"

Dont make me laugh go to the Social Media all Novak Fans are the Biggest Bullies out LOL! when Alcaraz and Sinner starting defeating Novak they all turn on their fans and still do to this very day, unless you dont pay homage to Novak you are Set Upon
They have a big chips on their shoulders like their Idol Novak
Thank goodness when Mensik played him in the final he left his " Novak is my idol" in the locker room
I forget their War Cry is Cry Me A River Amen
Also when was Novak diagnosed being a Celiac? I know a lot of players went on a gluten free diet Andy Murray was one and came off it quick smart,'
Being in the medical profession people went on gluten free diets because they thought it would make them lose weight? lol!, and most did for a little while and then went back to their diets of eating, being diagnosed a Celiac has a lot of repercussions, and it has to be supervised by a dietitican
I have been up close to Novak in Rome, he is too thin, he and his wife need to go to Macca's for a year or two

 

[El Dude]

It's not you; more the tennis world! If I see bullying of any sort, I see red! I can remember after all these yrs. Roger & A-Rod defaming & trying to undermine Novak's character! He obviously fixed the breathing & gluten issue & we saw the difference w/ great success right away! They've all come around & keep their fk'n mouthes shut now, but it's on vid for all to see! The great thing is NOVAK's a real mensch, who's a good guy, friendly (not standoff-ish or stupid like some on tour), is forgiving, & moves on! I'd of told those jerks like his old man does to "GTH!"

I can't really comment on that because, quite frankly, I don't care about the soap opera that is rival fandom. Fandom is often rather dumb - I detest when it leads to tribalism. We see it in sports and in politics - most people are more interested in being partisan then in standing by any principles.

 

[El Dude]

If you are talking of Novak getting a GS title in 2025
I feel Miami has exposed Novak in a lot of ways, this is a tournament the best of 3 sets, he had a easy draw to the final and lost to Mensik in straight sets, his movement was off and Mensik returned his serve with ease

Do you expect him able to 'grind out' during RG, granted he does have a day off he has entered a lot of tournaments before RG maybe too many,he will be 38 years old, he is not the favorite in my eyes.

What do you expect from that 'poster' who has been pushing Novak down our throats forever People in glass houses Hey? lol!
He can give it out but dosent like receiving it!

I remember thinking (and possibly saying) that if Novak won Miami, he was a legit contender at Roland Garros. For a hot moment, I even thought he was the favorite. He looked great, demolishing Musetti with some of his trademark moves.

But...I think you are right, as of now. There's still almost two months before Roland Garros, including three Masters and a handful of lesser tournaments. It is hard to say how much Novak has declined, vs. him just being older and taking longer to find his form. I still think he's a contender for RG, but he's going to have to time it right and/or receive help from the Draw Gods.

Right now I'd put him in the mix with the "everyone else" category of darkhorses. There's Alcaraz and Sinner, then a group that includes Zverev, Tsitsipas, Ruud, etc, and I'd put Novak somewhere amidst that group. But there's no clear #3 contender. If Sascha pulls his head out of his ass and/or Novak starts playing with a bit more verve, those are the two most likely to be #3, but right now they're all in a group of "Only if Alcaraz and Sinner stumble."

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I can't really comment on that because, quite frankly, I don't care about the soap opera that is rival fandom. Fandom is often rather dumb - I detest when it leads to tribalism. We see it in sports and in politics - most people are more interested in being partisan then in standing by any principles.

Being partisan is something I also agree with in sports eg tennis
Though when that poster comes on with bs regarding Novak that's when I will correct his posts every time or any other player for that matter

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I remember thinking (and possibly saying) that if Novak won Miami, he was a legit contender at Roland Garros. For a hot moment, I even thought he was the favorite. He looked great, demolishing Musetti with some of his trademark moves.

But...I think you are right, as of now. There's still almost two months before Roland Garros, including three Masters and a handful of lesser tournaments. It is hard to say how much Novak has declined, vs. him just being older and taking longer to find his form. I still think he's a contender for RG, but he's going tiio have to time it right and/or receive help from the Draw Gods.

Right now I'd put him in the mix with the "everyone else" category of darkhorses. There's Alcaraz and Sinner, then a group that includes Zverev, Tsitsipas, Ruud, etc, and I'd put Novak somewhere amidst that group. But there's no clear #3 contender. If Sascha pulls his head out of his ass and/or Novak starts playing with a bit more verve, those are the two most likely to be #3, but right now they're all in a group of "Only if Alcaraz and Sinner stumble."

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I agree at present there isn't any clear favourites we have just finished the hc season
I personally wait till Rome which gives how players are really travelling through out the clay season before Roland Garros
I want to see Alcaraz playing well at MC for once it hasnt been a happy hunting ground for him
Stef is the defending champion can he get his game together to me his best surface is clay
Zverev still remains a top headcase unless he can turn around his form and mental ability on the clay
Medvedev out of the top 10, he has points to defend this clay season

 

[Jelenafan]

Who are you talking to? I've been saying Novak is the GOAT for several years now - really even going back to 2015 or 2016, after he had that crazy run from the end of 2014 to mid-2016. IIRC, I at least opened the door. I didn't give him the undisputed GOAT crown until maybe 2021 or 2023, but I thought as far back as 2015 that he might end up surpassing Fedal. So to put you at ease so you stop vituperating in my direction, I think Novak is the singular GOAT, with Fedal being a close 2-3 in some order (I think they're essentially tied).

And yes - I do think that the YEC is probably the biggest missing component of Rafa's resume. He and Wilander are the only ATGs who don't have a title there. But...this doesn't as much tarnish his resume as it does not add to it. He is still one of the three greatest players of the Open Era, and there's a huge gap between those three and #4, who most people agree is Sampras (with a few nodding to Borg).

And Miami? It barely registers.

But more to the point: Why do you insist on picking on Rafa in order to boost Novak? Doesn't Novak's resume speak for itself? Does he need to push anyone down? I think the gap between him and Fedal is substantial enough--even if not huge--to not require that sort of comparison. The irony is that you're doing exactly what you claim others of doing.

Here is the brutal reality:

Federer & Nadal are no longer “relevant”; they have left the building.

When a player retires its emotional for a fan because they are no longer in the mix, as great as they were they are yesterday’s news.

So Fiero can praise Djokovic, but it makes no sense to say its only as a response to Fedal fandom.

Alas, The same thing will happen to Novak. Even if his career statistics are never surpassed , once he’s “gone” the 24 GS, double Masters, etc are in the past tense. Sinner, Alcaraz & company will be the actual tennis conversation .

 

[Fiero425]

Here is the brutal reality:

Federer & Nadal are no longer “relevant”; they have left the building.

When a player retires its emotional for a fan because they are no longer in the mix, as great as they were they are yesterday’s news.

So Fiero can praise Djokovic, but it makes no sense to say its only as a response to Fedal fandom.

Alas, The same thing will happen to Novak. Even if his career statistics are never surpassed , once he’s “gone” the 24 GS, double Masters, etc are in the past tense. Sinner, Alcaraz & company will be the actual tennis conversation .

Well that's easy for you to say, but out there on the internet, World-wide, fans are fighting feverishly for Fedal as Co-GOATs! The truly knowledgeable tennis fan knows better, but it's hard giving up that romance of "The Greatest Match Ever" at Wimbledon in 2008! I've proved it can be ignored as I couldn't tell you anything about that match except it went 5 sets! I was so bored of the Fedal Show by then & how they were elevated to God-Status! That was why I glommed onto Novak! I saw his potential & followed him to the top of the GAME for all time w/ records that may never be broken! I couldn't have been more entertained as Novak met Rafa in final after final in 2011 on, just beating him, even on his beloved clay!

 

[El Dude]

Can everyone just bow once at the altar of Novak so Fiero will STFU?

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Can everyone just bow once at the altar of Novak so Fiero will STFU?

Hell will have to freeze over first