Miami Open - ATP : Predictions and bets

[masterclass]

Testosterone level is at the max
If this one pass, we will have to rename this friendly comp, "masterclass betting comp" !

Thiem - Djokovic will be good to watch.

Haha, This is why I'm not really a betting man.

I bet very infrequently, usually when I think I see something that gives me a solid chance at good odds.
If I bet 5 times/year in these circumstances, I usually hit 3-4 out of 5, which isn't too bad. If I bet a lot more, I'm sure I'd lose more than I'd win.

I almost bet out on Dimitrov yesterday, as I thought Murray has looked disinterested in IW and Miami, since the birth of his baby, but didn't trust Grigor not to choke, so I held back.
Turns out Murray played poorly enough to overcome any choking tendency by Dimitrov. So that was one opportunity lost.

As far as Djokovic-Thiem, it just looks to me that the ATP and media are in an all-out blitz to promote the young guns (see image).
Top players have been somewhat mysteriously falling left and right, and I won't.be surprised if the top one succumbs.
Whether it will be Thiem or not that does the job, I'm not sure. But I don't think Novak will win the title.

At any rate, I think a big shake up in the old order is coming.
Tennis is under the gun with bad press, match fixing & doping issues, lack of youth winning anything of note, and needs a different sort of shot in the arm to get the viewing public interested in the sport again and put the bad press behind them. This is especially true in the big tennis markets of the USA, Australia, and Europe, but also in the emerging markets of East Asia (China, Japan)..

Respectfully,
masterclass

 

[britbox]

Agreed masterclass - I think the next 18 months is going to see some of these younger guys seriously breaking out into the big leagues.

 

[Bert]

Haha, This is why I'm not really a betting man.

I bet very infrequently, usually when I think I see something that gives me a solid chance at good odds.
If I bet 5 times/year in these circumstances, I usually hit 3-4 out of 5, which isn't too bad. If I bet a lot more, I'm sure I'd lose more than I'd win.

I almost bet out on Dimitrov yesterday, as I thought Murray has looked disinterested in IW and Miami, since the birth of his baby, but didn't trust Grigor not to choke, so I held back.
Turns out Murray played poorly enough to overcome any choking tendency by Dimitrov. So that was one opportunity lost.

As far as Djokovic-Thiem, it just looks to me that the ATP and media are in an all-out blitz to promote the young guns (see image).
Top players have been somewhat mysteriously falling left and right, and I won't.be surprised if the top one succumbs.
Whether it will be Thiem or not that does the job, I'm not sure. But I don't think Novak will win the title.

At any rate, I think a big shake up in the old order is coming.
Tennis is under the gun with bad press, match fixing & doping issues, lack of youth winning anything of note, and needs a different sort of shot in the arm to get the viewing public interested in the sport again and put the bad press behind them. This is especially true in the big tennis markets of the USA, Australia, and Europe, but also in the emerging markets of East Asia (China, Japan)..

Respectfully,
masterclass

To be honest I don't know Thiem very well. I have followed his results and saw him coming but never watched him play a full match. I cannot say if he has a real chance or not, but I am not really a Nole's fan so I would be happy if he wins today. But sometimes Nole reminds me Federer as his best, when you feel that these guys can disconnect the brain, set an objective and just cruising to the title, playing incredibly on all decisive points and making break points, tie-breaks turn for them even in bad days.
In 2005-2006, I had the feeling that everyone playing Federer had a extra pressure as if they started with a handicap knowing that they wouldn't win any tie-breaks and lose 90 % of turning points.
That's the only reason why I don't really see how Nole can miss the title here

 

[britbox]

To be honest I don't know Thiem very well. I have followed his results and saw him coming but never watched him play a full match. I cannot say if he has a real chance or not, but I am not really a Nole's fan so I would be happy if he wins today. But sometimes Nole reminds me Federer as his best, when you feel that these guys can disconnect the brain, set an objective and just cruising to the title, playing incredibly on all decisive points and making break points, tie-breaks turn for them even in bad days.
In 2005-2006, I had the feeling that everyone playing Federer had a extra pressure as if they started with a handicap knowing that they wouldn't win any tie-breaks and lose 90 % of turning points.
That's the only reason why I don't really see how Nole can miss the title here

I don't think Thiem will win but it's not a bad punt given the odds... and he is going to be a future star... although I think based on what I've seen, clay will be his best surface.

 

[Billie]

Here we go, losing money rapidly, luckily it's imaginary money.

I'll put $10 on Simon and $20 on Nole tomorrow.

 

[Bert]

Last round results :

@britbox = +6 +61.1 = 67.1 $ (6/10)
@Moxie = 60.85 $ (4/11)
@Bert = +6.5 -5 + 124.38 = 125.88 $ (10/12)
@Billie = -10 +6.5 - 10 +95.4 = 81.9 $ (5/9)
@masterclass = -100 +100 = 0 $

Bad luck @masterclass. Thanks for having joined, it has been short... but intense We count on you for the next one !

 

[masterclass]

Last round results :

@britbox = +6 +61.1 = 67.1 $ (6/10)
@Moxie = 60.85 $ (4/11)
@Bert = +6.5 -5 + 124.38 = 125.88 $ (10/12)
@Billie = -10 +6.5 - 10 +95.4 = 81.9 $ (5/9)
@masterclass = -100 +100 = 0 $

Bad luck @masterclass. Thanks for having joined, it has been short... but intense We count on you for the next one !

Thiem certainly had many opportunities, Bert. Too bad he couldn't convert more than 1 of 15 break points. And that one was a DF by Novak, so Thiem was 0 for 15 in my book..

Some of that was due to Novak of course, but Thiem bottled way too many. After a while, even Novak was shaking his head smiling at Thiem's multitude of lost opportunities.

Djokovic was there to be had, so I don't feel badly about my bet at all.

Respectfully,
masterclass

 

[Bert]

Thiem certainly had many opportunities, Bert. Too bad he couldn't convert more than 1 of 15 break points. And that one was a DF by Novak, so Thiem was 0 for 15 in my book..

Some of that was due to Novak of course, but Thiem bottled way too many. After a while, even Novak was shaking his head smiling at Thiem's multitude of lost opportunities.

Djokovic was there to be had, so I don't feel badly about my bet at all.

Respectfully,
masterclass

I didn't watch the match but looking at the match's stats, both seem very close and Djokovic not in a great day (probably because of Thiem). Unlucky that he didn't manage to convert more break points. Thiem will definitely learn from this one, and won't miss as many opportunities twice.

 

[Bert]

Next Round : only two matches

 

[britbox]

$60 on Goffin

 

[Bert]

10$ on Simon

 

[Moxie]

$20 on Simon.

 

[Billie]

$10 on Kei and $10 on Nick.

 

[Bert]

Last round results :

@britbox = +48.6 +67.1 = 115.7 $ (7/11)
@Moxie = -20+60.85 = 40.85 $ (4/12)
@Bert = -10 + 125.88 = 115.88 $ (10/13)
@Billie = -10 +2.2 +81.9 = 74.1 $ (6/11)

Britbox's aggressive game is paying ! Few games remaining and he is back in the race Moxie and Billie saved their extra boost for the finish !

 

[Bert]

Next Round :

I go 10$ on Monfils and 10$ on Kyrgios. There should be one of them going through

 

[britbox]

$20 on Nishikori.

 

[Bert]

Last round results :

@britbox = +7.6 +115.7 = 123.3 $ (8/12)
@Moxie = 40.85 $ (4/12)
@Bert = -10 + 13.2 + 115.88 = 119.08 $ (11/15)
@Billie = +3.8 +13.2 +74.1 = 91.1 $ (8/13)

Everyone made money on this round. Best results for Billie who picks the 2 winners !

 

[Billie]

Last round results :

@britbox = +7.6 +115.7 = 123.3 $ (8/12)
@Moxie = 40.85 $ (4/12)
@Bert = -10 + 13.2 + 115.88 = 119.08 $ (11/15)
@Billie = +3.8 +13.2 +74.1 = 91.1 $ (8/13)

Everyone made money on this round. Best results for Billie who picks the 2 winners !

BB is pocketing some serious dough.

For tomorrow I'll bet $25 on Nole and $20 on Nick (I feel a bit adventurous):sith:

 

[Bert]

Next Round :

I bet 10$ on Kyrgios.

 

[britbox]

Kyrgios/Nishikori is a tough one and not one I would bet on with real cash....

I'll go small - $10 on Kei, but he could potentially get blown away by an in-form Nick.