Miami Open, ATP Masters 2018

[Federberg]

Nice catch (@#$&#¥€£!!!!)

Anyway It surely took him more time to reach #1. I don't think he even got to #2 in 2008.

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Not sure you can hold that against him. He did have the top two players of the open era in front of him

 

[mrzz]

Not sure you can hold that against him. He did have the top two players of the open era in front of him

Well, It is not exactly against him... My point is that he only reached his absolute peak in 2011. Sure he was damn good in 2008. But he became a different beast three years later.

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[El Dude]

^Right. Novak was a really good player by 2007, when he was 19-20, but wasn't a truly great one until 2011 when he was 23-24.

Roger's ascent was a bit more gradual and he wasn't as good as Novak at 19-20 (2001), but he did become great a year or so earlier, in late 2003 or 2004 at age 22-23.

Rafa was like a supernova, with a meteoric rise to in 2005 at age 18-19, all within a few months. But he didn't become truly great on all courts until 2008 at age 21-22.

So I think the point here that you are making, @mrzz, which I agree with is that it took longer for Novak to go from very good to great than Roger and Rafa.

 

[Federberg]

I'm not sure I agree. I think Novak was great earlier, but unfortunately for him he had two all time beasts that were greater. His greatness became revealed in 2011 when the conditions became fertile for him

 

[El Dude]

Well, we'd have to look at who he was losing to early on. I'm fairly certain his overall level rose in 2011 - not just relative to Fedal. And of course Rafa fans don't like to admit this, but Rafa was still at his very best in 2011--no less than 2010--when Novak surpassed him.

That might be the main difference between Novak in 2007-10 vs. 2011 on: his ability beat Fedal.

 

[El Dude]

In other news, glad to see Tiafoe win again, and against Edmund, a pretty solid opponent. Several NextGenners won today to make it to 3R: Tiafoe, Coric, Shapo, Zverev.

 

[kskate2]

^^ You can add Khachanov to that list. He and Shapo are the only next genners to get out in straights today.

 

[Federberg]

Well, we'd have to look at who he was losing to early on. I'm fairly certain his overall level rose in 2011 - not just relative to Fedal. And of course Rafa fans don't like to admit this, but Rafa was still at his very best in 2011--no less than 2010--when Novak surpassed him.

That might be the main difference between Novak in 2007-10 vs. 2011 on: his ability beat Fedal.

That would be the definitive test

 

[El Dude]

Some follow-up numbers on Novak, for @Federberg.

From 2007-10, Novak was 6-11 vs. Roger, 7-15 vs. Rafa, or 13-26 overall (33%). In 2011 he was 10-1 (91%) vs both of them; from 2012-17, he was 26-16 (62%).

So obviously he jumped forward in a big way vs. Fedal in 2011, and then plateaued at a more moderate but still favorable level, compared to pre-2011.

What about vs. the field? From 2007-10, he was 258-47 (85%) vs. the non-Fedal field. In 2011 he was 60-5 (92%), and from 2012-17 he was 445-36 (93%).

So in other words, it is clear that he took a big step forward in 2011 and maintained it vs. the field. Fedal adjusted somewhat to this new higher level Novak after 2011, but not the field overall.

(These numbers should be close to accurate, but I can't claim they're perfect as I was in a rush and didn't double-check).

 

[Federberg]

That's very interesting. In my view, if you're getting 85% vs the field then you're already great. The only thing stopping you from winning the whole lot are the two monsters in front of you

 

[Federberg]

Looks like Roger's playing better ball than in IW based on the eye test

 

[DarthFed]

It stood to reason that if Roger had a bad tournament at IW he'd be awful in Miami. Was hoping he'd at least make the QF to keep the scumbag from #1 but now he's in a dog fight vs someone who hasn't been around for a long time.

 

[Front242]

Trouble with the Kokk. Never good

 

[Federberg]

It stood to reason that if Roger had a bad tournament at IW he'd be awful in Miami. Was hoping he'd at least make the QF to keep the scumbag from #1 but now he's in a dog fight vs someone who hasn't been around for a long time.

Yup. I shouldn't have used the eye test after a few games!

 

[kskate2]

I didn't know Chung is playing doubs w/ Shapo.

 

[El Dude]

Roger won only 27% of his second serves in the 2nd set. wtf.

 

[El Dude]

Wow, what a backhand to win that point from Roger.

 

[El Dude]

I haven't watched many matches of the last two tournaments, but of the several moments of Fed matches I've watched, there is one common feeling: Roger's opponents seem more impassioned, seem to want to win more than Roger does. I just wonder if every tournament just feels like leadup to Slams for Roger. At his level it must be so hard to care as much as he needs to care to win at lesser tournaments, even Masters.

 

[El Dude]

BIg Kokk has some firepower. Baby Delpo?

 

[Federberg]

Think that's a bit harsh on Roger. I didn't see any desire issues at IW. He just didn't play well. Here so far, it's always been a struggle for him in the early rounds. He gets away with it generally because he's so good