Always a pleasure to read your graphs and stats
@El Dude. Hopefully nothing puts you down and away from tennis like unfortunate events 2 years ago (let's just skip mentioning the names..)
It is indeed very blank after Big 3 dominance and it seems like it is coming to an end, slowly but surely. What strikes me the most is how far the next gen have come in terms of rankings, I think this year has brought a big shift of momentum and as I previously mentioned it can only get better for them in terms of big tournaments and slams count. It would help a lot to their case if next year at this time they have 2 slams more in their pocket.
It is still hard to predict how slams will be collected amongst the most promising young guys, but I can see the next era much closer to Edberg/Wilander/Becker than the Big 3, at least it points in that direction so far. That will also leave some room for a guys like Berettinni who will have a chance without the brutal big 3 always around.
Yes, agree on all accounts (and thanks).
I'll go into it my next part (or the one after that; I think this will be four parts), but I suspect the same: of the guys we know the names of (basically, top 100 or even 200), maybe a couple win 5+ Slams, but then half a dozen win 1-4 Slams. Meaning, it is going to be really spread out, more like the late 90s/early 00s or 80s.
I mean, if nothing else, it is a simple matter of logic. Rafa and Novak can only win so many more Slams, and there are reasons to think that they have <5 left between the two of them.
I'll plagiarize and simplify some of thoughts that I'll put onto paper, but consider a few things:
1) Let's say Rafa and Novak win 4 more between the two of them. It may be more, but only a bit more, and it may be less. But 4 is one full year's worth, probably spread over two or maybe three years.
2) The "Slam-winning window" seems to have extended a bit, with players peaking a bit later. This is a bit exaggerated by the Big Three, but let's say the new decline age is somewhere between 30 and 33, vs. 28-30ish in the 70s-00s.
3) That means, for future Slam contenders:
- Thiem turns 30 in 2023, 33 in 2026
- Medvedev and Berretini turn 30 in 2026, 33 in 2029
- Zverev, Rublev, and Hurkacz turn 30 in 2027, 33 in 2030
- Tsitsipas and Ruud turn 30 in 2028, 33 in 2031
- Shapovalov turns 30 in 2029, 33 in 2032
- Auger-Aliassime and Korda turn 30 in 2030, 33 in 2033
- Sinner turns 30 in 2031, 33 in 2034
- Musetti turns 30 in 2032, 33 in 2035
- Alcaraz turns 30 in 2033, 33 in 2036
Plus other possible guys who might emerge, especially on the younger side.
But that means that even "old men" Medvedev and Berretini have 20 Slams through the year they turn 30 years old, and 32 Slams through the year they turn 32. And it increases from there, with Alcaraz having 48 and 60 Slams, respectively.
Now let's assume a few things:
- All of the Slams through 2030 are won by the above players, but Rafa and Novak (4 total), plus we'll add in a "surprise" 4. Let's also assume that some of the younger guys keep winning Slams past 2030, but we'll leave that aside.
2022-30 = 9 years x 4 = 36 Slams
- 4 for Rafa and Novak = 32 Slams
- 4 for surprise/unknown players = 28 Slams
Now if we take those 28 Slams and divide them by the 14 players above we get an average of 2 Slams each. Some will win more, some less, some none.
Now I'm sure some Rafa or Novak diehard will come in and say they're going to win another 6 or 7, and the other guy 3 or 4, so 10 more total. But I highly doubt it. I mean, it
could happen, but it seems less and less likely. My 4 seems like a good over/under; I could see 6 more between the two, but I could also see only 2.
And maybe there are no surprise players that emerge, or at least not until later on. And of course Alcaraz ill only be 27 in 2030, Sinner 29, and FAA 30...so those guys could win a few more (if they end up being Slam winners).
Anyhow, a long-winded way of saying: the young guys will in bunches of Slams, dozens between guys that we already know about. It is just a matter of who and how much each.