PART TWO: GENERATIONAL DOMINANCE
To further explore this idea of a “changing of the guard,” let’s take an in-depth look at tennis generations, with an emphasis on more recent generations.
A Stroll Through The (Active) Generations
In the previous installment, I equated the term “Next Gen” with those players born between 1994-98, and the “Millenial Gen” as those born from 1999-2003. Again, these are artificial demarcations. In some sense, Dominic Thiem—born September 1993—belongs more with Next Gen than he does with the “Lost Gen” (1989-93). In truth, there are no distinct generations, just new players arriving every year. On the other hand, it does seem that players can be grouped in cohorts, so the generations offer us a handy perspective for looking at the evolution of the game.
Currently, the oldest player with any ATP points is Toshihide Matsui, born on April 19, 1978. Meaning, he’s actually of the pre-Federer generation (b. 1974-78), by my five-year spans. Or to put it another way, he’s closer to Gustavo Kuerten (b. 1976) than Roger Federer (b. 1981). But given that you’ve probably never heard of him, and that his career high ranking is #261, to find someone that we all
have heard of, we have to go to Ivo Karlovic at #200.The 42-year old Dr Ivo was born in February of 1979, and thus on the older side of Generation Federer (1979-83) but after a late career spike that saw him finish 2016 with his highest year-end ranking (#20), he seems to be (finally) fading.
On the other side of the spectrum, there are several 16-year-olds with ATP points, but to find someone with significant points, we go to 18-year-old Carlos Alcaraz Garfia (b. 2003), ranked #38 and the highest ranked teenager (#14 Jannik Sinner turned 20 a month ago). The next highest ranked teenager is 19-year old Lorenzo Musetti at #57; the next highest ranked 18-year old is #133, Holger Nodskov Rune, who is a week older than Alcaraz. Alcaraz, Musetti, and Rune are the only players born in 2002 or later who are ranked in the top 250.
If you’re wondering, the highest ranked 17-year old is the French Arthur Fils, born in June of 2004 and all the way down at #676. As a general rule, a ranking outside of the top 200 denotes players who aren’t even yet on the Challenger circuit, so there’s no reason to pay too close attention to Fils. It is interesting to note that he defeated one Bernard Tomic in the first qualification round at Roland Garros, before falling to Marc Polmans in his next match.
So, the span of active ATP players—who are actually on the ATP circuit, or close to it—could be said to run from 18 to 42, or 1979 to 2003. Or really, 18-40, unless Karlovic’s ranking increases substantially. That gives us five generations to consider. Here are the top ten ranked players, by generation:
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As you can see, Roger’s generation is all but done – he’s the only player who turns 38 or older in the top 100 and, to be frank, is mainly holding onto that top 10 ranking due to the strange ranking rules currently in place. For the ATP Race rankings, he’s at #61. Of his generation, the only other big title winner left is Tommy Robredo, ranked outside the top 300. If you’re wondering, Robredo’s last appearance was losing in the 2021 Wimbledon qualifications to the #144 player, Tomas Machac.
Djokodal Gen is hanging on, although outside of Rafa and Novak, only a few guys are hanging out on the edge of the top 20, though there are still ten players in the top 50. Meaning, they too are aging out. Stan Wawrinka (currently #47) and Andy Murray (currently #116) are shadows of their former selves, Tomas Berdych has retired, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (#93) is likely not far behind, Marin Cilic (#40) has seriously faded and Juan Martin del Potro hasn’t played in over two years, his last event being Queen’s Club in June of 2019 (after defeating Denis Shapovalov in R32, he withdrew).
Lost Gen is…well, lost Gen. The top players, outside of Thiem (who is on the edge of that generation), are far down the rankings, with Kei Nishikori outside of the top 50. Meaning, other than Thiem, there are no serious Slam contenders, and we don’t yet know how Dominic will come back from his wrist injury.
Next Gen is clearly dominant, with the the best overall rankings of the five generations. Not only do they have five of the top seven rankings, but four more in the top 20. Meaning, they comprise 45% of the top 20. Only Daniil Medvedev has won a Slam, but Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Karen Khachanov, and Hubert Hurkacz have all won big titles. Consider that’s already more players (five) who have won big titles than all of Lost Gen (Dimitrov, Sock, and Thiem).
The Millenial Gen is rising, with three players on the edge of the top 10, and one of their youngest members in the top 40, and several others on the rise.
A large percentage of top players were born in the 1996-98 range, with six of ten top 10 players born in those three years. The other four are Federer (1981), Nadal (1986), Djokovic (1987) and Thiem (1993). Furthermore, ten of the top 14 were born in 1996 or later, with Felix Auger-Aliassime (b. 2000), Denis Shapovalov (b. 1999), Hubert Hurkacz (b. 1997), and Jannik Sinner (b. 2001) rounding out #11-14.
Or to put that in even more striking terms, of the top 14, the fifth oldest player is Daniil Medvedev, born in 1996. Meaning, 10 of the top 14 players (71%) are 25 years or younger.
To put all of that information in another visual aid, here’s another chart:
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This chart clearly illustrates that the top of the rankings has migrated ore centrally to players born in the mid-90s, that is, Next Gen. The Times They Are A Changin.
Focus Players
Let’s take a slightly different angle. Below is a list of the players by birth year, from 1927 to the present, who have won at least 6 majors—Amateur, Pro, or Open Era Slams:
1927: Frank Sedgman (8)
1928: Pancho Gonzales (14)
1930: Tony Trabert (7)
1934: Ken Rosewall (23)
1936: Roy Emerson (12)
1938: Rod Laver (19)
1944: John Newcombe (7)
1952: Jimmy Connors (8)
1956: Bjorn Borg (11)
1959: John McEnroe (7)
1960: Ivan Lendl (8)
1964: Mats Wilander (7)
1966: Stefan Edberg (6)
1967: Boris Becker (6)
1970: Andre Agassi (8)
1971: Pete Sampras (14)
1981: Roger Federer (20)
1986: Rafael Nadal (20)
1987: Novak Djokovic (20)
A few things to note. One, from 1927 to the present, no two 6+ major winners have been born in the same year. Two, the gaps in years between the 6+ major winners are: 0, 1, 3, 1, 1, 5, 3, 2, 0, 3, 1, 0, 2, 0, 9, 4, 0.
Meaning, the longest gap—by far—was between Sampras and Federer, a span of nine years (1972-80) with no 6+ major winners. The sixteen other gaps are between 0-5 years, with 14 of 17 gaps between 0-3 years. The average gap is 2.1 years.
Novak Djokovic, born in 1987, is the youngest player to win 6+ majors. For the first time in tennis history, there is no active player aged 32 or younger with 6+ major titles. Even more startling, only four players aged 32 and younger have won majors, all of them singletons, and two of them turning 32 this month.
This will, of course, inevitably change. But given the lay of the land right now, it seems that the first year which could yield a 6+ major winner is 1996, with Daniil Medvedev. So, unless Thiem comes back even better than before, we’re looking at an 8+ year gap. If Medvedev doesn’t win 6 majors, the next possible candidates are probably Alexander Zverev (b. 1997) and Stefanos Tsitsipas (b. 1998).
In other words, we’re looking at a gap similar as that between Sampras and Federer, when multi-Slam winners were Sergi Bruguera (born in 1971, same as Sampras), Patrick Rafter (1972), Yevgeny Kafelnikov (1974), Gustavo Kuerten (1976), Marat Safin (1980) and Lleyton Hewitt (1981, a few months before Federer).
Or to put all of that pictorially, here is the final, fanciest chart yet:
View attachment 5428
To clarify the above chart, the graph itself includes all Slam winners by birth year, with one cell per Slam. The names listed below the graph are all multiple majors winners (2+), and the key explains the color-coding.
The area for the players born in the 1930s is a bit exaggerated, because it includes both Amateur and Pro Slams. If they had been consolidated, some of those graph pillars would be lower (probably most notably Roy Emerson).
After Laver’s 1938 group, the pillars are greatly reduced in size, with smaller peaks for 1952 (Connors and Vilas), 1956 (Borg), 1959 and ’60 (McEnroe and Lendl, respectively), the great trio of Northern Europeans in 1964-67 (Wilander, Edberg, and Becker), and then 1970 (Agassi and Courier) and 1971 (Sampras).
After 1971, there is a long period with no players winning more than 3 Slams, that being Gustavo Kuerten in 1976, until 1981 (Federer), then another gap until 1986 and ’87 (Nadal and Djokovic, respectively).
As you can see, the chart terminates in 2000, but as mentioned, there is now one player born as late as 2003 (Carlos Alcaraz Garfia) in the top 40. But the “dark space” after Djokovic is rather striking, speaking of the sheer dominance of Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic, and also the weakness of the players born in the first half of the 90s. As the next few years progress, we should expect to see the latter half of that decade fill out with more color and extended into the 21st century.
Final Thoughts
One big takeaway from all the above is that we’re past due for another 6+ major winner. As mentioned, the oldest best candidate is Daniil Medvedev, born in 1996 (again, Thiem, who just turned 28, is probably unlikely to reach 6).
In the next part we will look more in-depth at the younger generations and attempt to predict who—at least based on past precedents—is most likely to take up the mantle of “all-time great,” or at least win multiple Slams.
