It's Dec 1, 2018...What happened?

[Busted]

Good effort @Busted - enjoyed the read.

Lots of expectations on Novak hitting the heights again, not just by you but most posters. I'm not so convinced - I'll gauge it more at the AO, but realistically he's been out a long time (I'm not really counting his bit-part role last year before injury)... we haven't seen the top drawer version of Novak for at least a year and a half.

It wouldn't surprise me if he had some average results early doors and then aggravated old injuries again. That shoulder better remain in tact if he's going to make the inroads people expect. I want to see him back in the mix again... I just think it will take time. If he stays fit then I think his best chance of a slam will be at the USO... I think the AO will be too early for him.

Every year we think that some young guns might make a break through... but the time is ripe here and now.... I'll take a punt and bet one of them wins a major this year.

The thing about Djokovic compared to Federer is - there are far fewer parts to his game and therefore fewer things that can go wrong in his return. If he's healthy, fit and mentally ready - he''ll be money by the time the AO rolls around. He's supposed to play 2 warm up events beforehand - an XO and Doha. So he should have worked out some of the kinks by the AO. I doubt either Federer or Nadal will want him in their half - especially in the early rounds. Djokovic's first tourney is Doha and even after 6 months off he should be able to defend that title (other players in the draw - Thiem, Berdych, Tsonga, Gasquet, Carreno Busta, Verdasco) and build confidence and momentum heading into Melbourne. If he defends he goes into the AO ranked #11 or 12. If he doesn't make the final he could be ranked anywhere from 16-20. I'd put money on him hitting the ground running and not wanting to be seeded any lower than 12. and hope for a decent draw.

Re: Young guns making a breakthrough? I think Federer said it best after he won Wimbledon - the changing of the guard is still at least "a few years away." The young guys will move up the rankings...but I don't think any of them will win a Slam in 2018 unless they get lucky like Dimitrov and the draw is decimated by injuries and early losses by the big 4-5.

 

[Busted]

Thanks to the Heaven that your predictions is just a wish and not a reality. What I understand a little bit more is what you have said about Federer, you should pray for he would do a good 2018 and winning something, otherwise it will be his last one playing. And about Novak I doubt he can stop Nadal

Huh? Listen, I'm a realist. Roger's going to be 37. The chances of him repeating his year last year are 40-60.

Re: Nadal beating Djokovic? Maybe on clay - and only if Djokovic is still struggling mentally and physically. As a little reminder: Nadal couldn't even beat Federer this year.

 

[Carol]

Huh? Listen, I'm a realist. Roger's going to be 37. The chances of him repeating his year last year are 40-60.

Re: Nadal beating Djokovic? Maybe on clay - and only if Djokovic is still struggling mentally and physically. As a little reminder: Nadal couldn't even beat Federer this year.

So do you think Novak will be back like in 2011? not even in his dreams it doesn't matter how much help is trying to find or in 2015 when Nadal was struggling physically and mentally too?. Nadal has not beaten Federer this year...and? Goffin has beaten Nadal and Federer too but let's go to pass that page......

 

[Moxie]

Good effort @Busted - enjoyed the read.

Lots of expectations on Novak hitting the heights again, not just by you but most posters. I'm not so convinced - I'll gauge it more at the AO, but realistically he's been out a long time (I'm not really counting his bit-part role last year before injury)... we haven't seen the top drawer version of Novak for at least a year and a half.

It wouldn't surprise me if he had some average results early doors and then aggravated old injuries again. That shoulder better remain in tact if he's going to make the inroads people expect. I want to see him back in the mix again... I just think it will take time. If he stays fit then I think his best chance of a slam will be at the USO... I think the AO will be too early for him.

Every year we think that some young guns might make a break through... but the time is ripe here and now.... I'll take a punt and bet one of them wins a major this year.

Everyone is looking to see how Novak comes back, for sure. But given how Federer, particularly, came back at 35 after 7 months, it's not hard to imagine Djokovic could storm back at 30. And we did glimpse the old Djokovic in Rome for a couple of days. (QF and SF. That was about it, I think.) However, given that so many of his issues seemed to be on the mental/motivational side, and with all of the upheaval in his life and team, it's hard to imagine all of the moving parts snapping back into place quickly enough for the AO title.

 

[Moxie]

Huh? Listen, I'm a realist. Roger's going to be 37. The chances of him repeating his year last year are 40-60.

Re: Nadal beating Djokovic? Maybe on clay - and only if Djokovic is still struggling mentally and physically. As a little reminder: Nadal couldn't even beat Federer this year.

If you're a realist, you have to know that Roger's chance of repeating last year are not 40-60. He hadn't won a Major for 4-1/2 years before this year. The chances that he wins 2 next year are, by history, almost nil.

But you do severely underestimate Nadal. And over-estimate Djokovic, based on how he's been for 18 months +. Nadal is the #1 ranked player, in case it has escaped your notice. The notion that he couldn't "even" beat Federer is a little coy. I thought that Fed fans were crowing about how Roger had found the formula to do it. In any case, Roger was by most estimations the best men's player of 2017, by a hair. So why would it be bad that Rafa didn't beat him, especially? Or an indicator that Rafa is going to have the poor 2018 that you predict? Roger and Rafa have shown, once again, that they are the players to beat. Everyone coming back from injury will have some ground to make up. We'll see how they've recovered, physically, and how they get their confidence back...not just with other players, but with their own bodies.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

If you're a realist, you have to know that Roger's chance of repeating last year are not 40-60. He hadn't won a Major for 4-1/2 years before this year. The chances that he wins 2 next year are, by history, almost nil.

But you do severely underestimate Nadal. And over-estimate Djokovic, based on how he's been for 18 months +. Nadal is the #1 ranked player, in case it has escaped your notice. The notion that he couldn't "even" beat Federer is a little coy. I thought that Fed fans were crowing about how Roger had found the formula to do it. In any case, Roger was by most estimations the best men's player of 2017, by a hair. So why would it be bad that Rafa didn't beat him, especially? Or an indicator that Rafa is going to have the poor 2018 that you predict? Roger and Rafa have shown, once again, that they are the players to beat. Everyone coming back from injury will have some ground to make up. We'll see how they've recovered, physically, and how they get their confidence back...not just with other players, but with their own bodies.

Moxie, idk about 2 majors. But his chances of winning 1 is absolutely not zero, and that might be true about winning 2 slams too. He is the best player on grass and hards right now. Although Djokovic and Murray are going to be there, I doubt they can challenge Roger much on hards. I for one, believe this might be a good time for Roger to turn back the clocks and beat Djokovic a few times, also Murray.

Actually, AO is a pretty fast court right now and Djokovic or Murray wouldn't find it particularly easy to stop Roger there. Nadal knows already. Wimbledon will suit Roger again but that is where a good challenge from Djokovic could come.

Overall, I don't see chances of Roger winning 2 slams as zero. There are some chances. But, that doesn't mean it's not going to require a lot of doing.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Roger and Rafa are expected to do well right from the start. By doing well, I mean producing a good level of tennis. Also, there is possibilities of witnessing really top-notch big 4 tennis next year. At least, I hope.

 

[Federberg]

Huh? Listen, I'm a realist. Roger's going to be 37. The chances of him repeating his year last year are 40-60.

Re: Nadal beating Djokovic? Maybe on clay - and only if Djokovic is still struggling mentally and physically. As a little reminder: Nadal couldn't even beat Federer this year.

I think you’re putting way too much stock in Novak. Only Fedal have shown a consistent ability to come back from the dead so to speak. This is Novak’s time to show he’s made of the same stuff. Until he does it I for one remain a sceptic. To do what both Rafa and Roger did last year takes more than just all time great level. It takes a once in a lifetime caliber. Novak has not proved he’s made of the same mental stuff so the first half of the year return to form just seems like extremely low likelihood to me. I’m waiting for New York

 

[DarthFed]

If you're a realist, you have to know that Roger's chance of repeating last year are not 40-60. He hadn't won a Major for 4-1/2 years before this year. The chances that he wins 2 next year are, by history, almost nil.

But you do severely underestimate Nadal. And over-estimate Djokovic, based on how he's been for 18 months +. Nadal is the #1 ranked player, in case it has escaped your notice. The notion that he couldn't "even" beat Federer is a little coy. I thought that Fed fans were crowing about how Roger had found the formula to do it. In any case, Roger was by most estimations the best men's player of 2017, by a hair. So why would it be bad that Rafa didn't beat him, especially? Or an indicator that Rafa is going to have the poor 2018 that you predict? Roger and Rafa have shown, once again, that they are the players to beat. Everyone coming back from injury will have some ground to make up. We'll see how they've recovered, physically, and how they get their confidence back...not just with other players, but with their own bodies.

So basically you're calling out Busted for being unrealistic because she thinks Roger can have another great season. Wasn't Roger old AF this year? Wasn't that historically unprecedented? You are just assuming/hoping he's going to turn into garbage, but don't call someone out for thinking it might not play out that way. Let's not compare Roger at 36 to past greats because he is a different breed and nutrition and perhaps evolution has clearly helped athletes age compared to even 10 years ago. For Roger the only things I worry about are injury and motivation. I think Mirka will keep his eyes where they are supposed to be, he can enjoy family life when his legacy is truly secure. The body is a different story, the only real bad sign is that he was struggling even though he only played 12 tournaments.

And then apparently it should all fall into place that Rafa dominates 2018 and Novak never becomes a good player again. I think people are dreaming that Nole remains terrible. Recent history tells us that the greats struggle in their late 20's and early 30's and then reset mentally and retool their games. Nole isn't going away, but if he does then what's stopping Roger from possibly repeating this year? If Nole remains weak then the competition this year will suck again unless Next Gen takes 3 steps forward or more.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Yes, we need to think conservatively about Novak. I mean, I guess he will have better chances starting from Wimbledon probably even clay season if it is to happen.

 

[Front242]

Will it be C-VAC who returns in 2018 or NO-VAC? THAT is the question.

 

[El Dude]

Everyone cheats but my favorite player!

 

[Front242]

Everyone cheats but my favorite player!

Well, so far there's no dirt with any substance on the Rodge, which can't be said for some of the other top players.

 

[Moxie]

Well, so far there's no dirt with any substance on the Rodge, which can't be said for some of the other top players.

Unless you use your own standards of implication, which is all you have on the others.

 

[Moxie]

So basically you're calling out Busted for being unrealistic because she thinks Roger can have another great season. Wasn't Roger old AF this year? Wasn't that historically unprecedented? You are just assuming/hoping he's going to turn into garbage, but don't call someone out for thinking it might not play out that way. Let's not compare Roger at 36 to past greats because he is a different breed and nutrition and perhaps evolution has clearly helped athletes age compared to even 10 years ago. For Roger the only things I worry about are injury and motivation. I think Mirka will keep his eyes where they are supposed to be, he can enjoy family life when his legacy is truly secure. The body is a different story, the only real bad sign is that he was struggling even though he only played 12 tournaments.

And then apparently it should all fall into place that Rafa dominates 2018 and Novak never becomes a good player again. I think people are dreaming that Nole remains terrible. Recent history tells us that the greats struggle in their late 20's and early 30's and then reset mentally and retool their games. Nole isn't going away, but if he does then what's stopping Roger from possibly repeating this year? If Nole remains weak then the competition this year will suck again unless Next Gen takes 3 steps forward or more.

I was mainly reacting to the "40-60," because I always find it funny how people put numbers to it, but, in fairness to her, she gave him a less than 50% chance. I've never said he'll turn into "garbage." I take your point that he's in new territory, and we've seen players carrying on good (to excellent) form later than expected.

I really do wish you'd stop putting words in my mouth. I have been, along with Britbox, Federberg and others, cautious about how Novak comes back, but even less than them, I think it's not if, but when, and, yes, how much. You're the guy that told me, last Spring, that it doesn't all come back at once. That it's likely to take some time. It didn't for Roger, obviously. I know that Fed fans think he's a different species, but the rest of us think he's a human like everyone else. Which means that if Fed can do it at 35, Novak could do it at 30. What gives many of us pause is how far he went off into the wilderness, and for how long. That said, and with Stan and Raonic now all-but-declared not fully fit for the AO, perhaps I was wrong to disdain @Busted's 40-60 prediction, also taking on board your points. I'm not completely intractable.

 

[Front242]

Unless you use your own standards of implication, which is all you have on the others.

Wrong. We know 100% Novak used the C-Vac machine which the ATP considered banning as it's against the spirit of sport. They didn't ban it so he kept using it. While not cheating because of this, it's still fake cardio and Roger has not used this and gets tired much easier. Novak went from having massive cardio problems in late 2010 and multiple retirements to being Superman in 2011 but feel free to think it had nothing to do with this.

 

[shawnbm]

^ Front has a point; I was never fond of that contraption and his use of it. It never seemed completely “right” that he was using that thing. It was never formally banned, but it certainly was a little odd at the time. Does he or anyone else use such a thing still?

 

[Moxie]

There's some retail version of the thing at the AO and lots of the players get into it. They did a piece on it on TV here. It's not banned, and I don't know how Front knows that Roger's never gotten into one. My problem with it, since it wasn't banned, was that it was expensive, and therefore not really available to all players. But that seems not to be the case in Melbourne, at least.

 

[shawnbm]

I did not see that piece on television. I did not know of tha availability of it during the event.

 

[roberto]

There's some retail version of the thing at the AO and lots of the players get into it. They did a piece on it on TV here. It's not banned, and I don't know how Front knows that Roger's never gotten into one. My problem with it, since it wasn't banned, was that it was expensive, and therefore not really available to all players. But that seems not to be the case in Melbourne, at least.

By that logic, less successful players who can't afford the entourage of coaches, physios, etc., that all top players have are also at a disadvantage. "Unfair" goes with the territory, unfortunately......