Is Rafa in Decline?

[Federberg]

It may be that Rafa declines rapidly, but I rather suspect it's going to be because he has fewer options to win than someone like Roger, and less to do with his physicality. For example he's moving around pretty well right now.. just a thought

 

[El Dude]

I have to agree. Doesn't mean I don't like El Dude's efforts though. History rhymes, but we're talking about human beings here. Everyone's different, and times are different too. For the record my comment about Borg vs Connors was more to do with how they left the game. Quitting or fighting..

I agree too, and just to be clear I didn't say otherwise. See the post above yours for further clarification.

It may be that Rafa declines rapidly, but I rather suspect it's going to be because he has fewer options to win than someone like Roger, and less to do with his physicality. For example he's moving around pretty well right now.. just a thought

Interesting thought. But wouldn't the loss in even a slight bit of physicality have exponential impact on his "fewer options"? I mean, if he wasn't losing physicality than he should be able to remain in prime form, but the combination of a slightly loss in movement, perhaps not caring quite as much, and fewer options, would lead to a domino effect.

 

[Federberg]

^Perhaps. But the main problem is that he's more reliant on defence than Roger, so loss of physicality will have a bigger impact. But Rafa is an all time great with the skill set to use other options if he so chooses. That's the champion thing. That's what Roger has had to do to remain relevant. Rafa will have to do the same

 

[DarthFed]

^Perhaps. But the main problem is that he's more reliant on defence than Roger, so loss of physicality will have a bigger impact. But Rafa is an all time great with the skill set to use other options if he so chooses. That's the champion thing. That's what Roger has had to do to remain relevant. Rafa will have to do the same

Agreed. I think Rafa is moving decently these past couple weeks yet he has still been blown out by Stan and Murray. At the end of the day so much of Rafa's success is built on getting decent depth and getting his topspin to kick up very high. If he doesn't have one of those his forehand becomes attackable and if he doesn't have either his shots are like meatballs begging to be blasted. Adding back some muscle (he has lost a lot of muscle mass since he was 19-23) would help his forehand but possibly hurt his knees.

He still has great tennis left in him but he has already run into the problem Roger has...piecing it together for 2 straight weeks or even 1.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

when rafa starts shanking those cc/dtl in/out forehands like he did v stan then you know problems are mounting.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Should I put my Mike One cap on and say Rafa is as good as ever? Fast as a cat, moving incredibly, he's just facing much tougher clay competition. Stan and Triple F would've taken him 5 years ago!

Sounds more like Cali to me.

 

[brokenshoelace]

It may be that Rafa declines rapidly, but I rather suspect it's going to be because he has fewer options to win than someone like Roger, and less to do with his physicality. For example he's moving around pretty well right now.. just a thought

Nadal's main reason behind his decline is the loss in physicality and movement, which in turn gives him fewer options to win. Are his options now any different than his options in 2010? He just doesn't move as well.

And make no mistake about it, Nadal moving "fine" now, while true, is relative. He's moving fine compared to his 29 year old wear-and-tear'd self. Compared to his prime, his movement is sub-par, as is his stamina.

This is not a chicken and egg thing. These same matches Nadal loses now when he's not feeling the ball well, he used to win them with regularity by defending like a madman, turn it into a physical battle, work his way back into the match, and slowly get back his feel for the ball. He can't do that anymore.

 

[El Dude]

If you're right, Broken, it is amazing what a difference a year makes. While a year ago Rafa hadn't had as good a year as 2013, he had still won Madrid, still made the finals of two other Masters, and then won Roland Garros. This year in his 10 tournaments he's only made two finals, with only one title - Argentina, an ATP 250 event. Manacor, we have a problem.

Here's a somewhat disturbing stat. After winning Roland Garros last year, Rafa is 32-14 including 7-5 in the rest of 2014 and 25-9 this year. That's a 70% win pct, or 69.6% to be exact. That's a typical winning percentage for second tier players like Tsonga, Berdych, and Ferrer - or Roger in 2013 (73%).

All that said, I think his bounce-back potential in 2016 is high. Not likely to prior levels, but I could see the clay court season of 2016 being a bit of an "Indian Summer" for him and then, hopefully, he'll be able to sustain a slower decline for two or three years. We shall see.

I must say that, as a tennis fan, this year's Roland Garros is one of the most anticipated tournaments in quite some time. Should be very interesting. Despite wanting to see a new champ, there's part of me that wants to see Rafa shut the naysayers up with a decisive victory. Just a part of me!

 

[brokenshoelace]

If you're right, Broken, it is amazing what a difference a year makes. While a year ago Rafa hadn't had as good a year as 2013, he had still won Madrid, still made the finals of two other Masters, and then won Roland Garros. This year in his 10 tournaments he's only made two finals, with only one title - Argentina, an ATP 250 event. Manacor, we have a problem.

Here's a somewhat disturbing stat. After winning Roland Garros last year, Rafa is 32-14 including 7-5 in the rest of 2014 and 25-9 this year. That's a 70% win pct, or 69.6% to be exact. That's a typical winning percentage for second tier players like Tsonga, Berdych, and Ferrer - or Roger in 2013 (73%).

All that said, I think his bounce-back potential in 2016 is high. Not likely to prior levels, but I could see the clay court season of 2016 being a bit of an "Indian Summer" for him and then, hopefully, he'll be able to sustain a slower decline for two or three years. We shall see.

I must say that, as a tennis fan, this year's Roland Garros is one of the most anticipated tournaments in quite some time. Should be very interesting. Despite wanting to see a new champ, there's part of me that wants to see Rafa shut the naysayers up with a decisive victory. Just a part of me!

Well, last year, he wasn't coming off any substantial time off. He had just had a great year in 2013 and his momentum was cut short with the injury at the AO which affected his confidence and movement for a while after.

Now, you're talking about 12 extra months of mileage, injuries, struggles to recapture form, poor results, etc... So yeah, it's going to be worse.

Anyway, the reason behind the decline are obvious. Watch videos of Nadal in his prime, watch videos of Nadal from even last year's RG final (to use a match he actually won, against a quality opponent too), and the main differences are not the way he hits his ground strokes or serve. It's the way he moves.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Sure Rafa doesn't move as well as he did before but it's still better than the majority of the players on the ATP. Rafa decline is due also his confidence and lack of concentration during points he needs to be more aggressive. Rafa isn't converting bps at the high rate or standards of his prime which was very evident during his lost to Stan, Milos, Verdasco and the Fog. Therefore , Rafa isn't the player to fear because he isn't striking the ball with a purpose. To be a grand slam champion you have to strike every ball with an intent on breaking down the opposition defense. Rafa these days is resigned to the state of just putting the ball back in play. This is what Stan capitalized on in the Rome qtr and AO final a last year.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Sure Rafa doesn't move as well as he did before but it's still better than the majority of the players on the ATP. Rafa decline is due also his confidence and lack of concentration during points he needs to be more aggressive.

You don't compare a player to others to see if he's declining. You compare him to himself. Nadal's movement declined compared to what it used to be and in turn, it affected his results. By very definition he declined.

Now, is his confidence and concentration an issue? Sure. But those don't come out of the blue. There's a clear reason behind his loss of confidence.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Sure Rafa doesn't move as well as he did before but it's still better than the majority of the players on the ATP. Rafa decline is due also his confidence and lack of concentration during points he needs to be more aggressive.

You don't compare a player to others to see if he's declining. You compare him to himself. Nadal's movement declined compared to what it used to be and in turn, it affected his results. By very definition he declined.

Now, is his confidence and concentration an issue? Sure. But those don't come out of the blue. There's a clear reason behind his loss of confidence.

Rafa's movement is about the same as it was at this time last year which was good enough to defend his title against Novak, Rafa has stated it's a confidence issue that he foolish admit to the world in January this year, he said he is playing nervously during those pressure points or situation, nervous has nothing to do with movement. IMO

 

[Fiero425]

Sure Rafa doesn't move as well as he did before but it's still better than the majority of the players on the ATP. Rafa decline is due also his confidence and lack of concentration during points he needs to be more aggressive.

You don't compare a player to others to see if he's declining. You compare him to himself. Nadal's movement declined compared to what it used to be and in turn, it affected his results. By very definition he declined.

Now, is his confidence and concentration an issue? Sure. But those don't come out of the blue. There's a clear reason behind his loss of confidence.

Rafa's movement is about the same as it was at this time last year which was good enough to defend his title against Novak, Rafa has stated it's a confidence issue that he foolish admit to the world in January this year, he said he is playing nervously during those pressure points or situation, nervous has nothing to do with movement. IMO

Tennis like any sport is all about confidence! You don't have to be injured to have a crisis and esp. in tennis, without confidence in play, you can't win! :nono :angel: :dodgy:

 

[tented]

Sure Rafa doesn't move as well as he did before but it's still better than the majority of the players on the ATP. Rafa decline is due also his confidence and lack of concentration during points he needs to be more aggressive.

You don't compare a player to others to see if he's declining. You compare him to himself. Nadal's movement declined compared to what it used to be and in turn, it affected his results. By very definition he declined.

Now, is his confidence and concentration an issue? Sure. But those don't come out of the blue. There's a clear reason behind his loss of confidence.

Rafa's movement is about the same as it was at this time last year which was good enough to defend his title against Novak, Rafa has stated it's a confidence issue that he foolish admit to the world in January this year, he said he is playing nervously during those pressure points or situation, nervous has nothing to do with movement. IMO

But I think he's nervous because (among other things) his movement isn't what it used to be, and he's still trying to figure out what to do about it, how to make adjustments based on less good movement. As I told someone recently, it's like he needs to downshift, but is having trouble finding the gear.

 

[Fiero425]

You don't compare a player to others to see if he's declining. You compare him to himself. Nadal's movement declined compared to what it used to be and in turn, it affected his results. By very definition he declined.

Now, is his confidence and concentration an issue? Sure. But those don't come out of the blue. There's a clear reason behind his loss of confidence.

Rafa's movement is about the same as it was at this time last year which was good enough to defend his title against Novak, Rafa has stated it's a confidence issue that he foolish admit to the world in January this year, he said he is playing nervously during those pressure points or situation, nervous has nothing to do with movement. IMO

But I think he's nervous because (among other things) his movement isn't what it used to be, and he's still trying to figure out what to do about it, how to make adjustments based on less good movement. As I told someone recently, it's like he needs to downshift, but is having trouble finding the gear.

Rafa "stripped" those gears years ago playing the way he does; counterpunching and being defensive! Getting into senseless battles with players not in his class has finally caught up to him IMO! Against Murray he started attacking the net, but you always felt it was in desperation rather than a mindset change! All these older players need to start moving forward more; esp. when the opponent in on the run floating a weak shot back! :nono :angel: :dodgy:

 

[the AntiPusher]

Rafa's movement is about the same as it was at this time last year which was good enough to defend his title against Novak, Rafa has stated it's a confidence issue that he foolish admit to the world in January this year, he said he is playing nervously during those pressure points or situation, nervous has nothing to do with movement. IMO

But I think he's nervous because (among other things) his movement isn't what it used to be, and he's still trying to figure out what to do about it, how to make adjustments based on less good movement. As I told someone recently, it's like he needs to downshift, but is having trouble finding the gear.

Rafa "stripped" those gears years ago playing the way he does; counterpunching and being defensive! Getting into senseless battles with players not in his class has finally caught up to him IMO! Against Murray he started attacking the net, but you always felt it was in desperation rather than a mindset change! All these older players need to start moving forward more; esp. when the opponent in on the run floating a weak shot back! :nono :angel: :dodgy:

I agree, Rafa has wasted and expanded a lot of energy against lesser players when he should have just pounded them off the court. Here is my take on his movement.. there are times in a match when Rafa sees that his opponent is hitting a slice ball down the line to his backhand, Rafa sprints to that side of the court, runs around his backhand to take control of the point by hitting an inside out forehand to his right handed opponent's fh to take control of the point. this is usually a good indicator that he is confident in his movement but the unfortunately he isn't that thrilled about hitting his backhand. I never have heard Rafa mention his felt his movement wasn't where it needs to be.

 

[herios]

Sure Rafa doesn't move as well as he did before but it's still better than the majority of the players on the ATP. Rafa decline is due also his confidence and lack of concentration during points he needs to be more aggressive.

You don't compare a player to others to see if he's declining. You compare him to himself. Nadal's movement declined compared to what it used to be and in turn, it affected his results. By very definition he declined.

Now, is his confidence and concentration an issue? Sure. But those don't come out of the blue. There's a clear reason behind his loss of confidence.

Rafa's movement is about the same as it was at this time last year which was good enough to defend his title against Novak, Rafa has stated it's a confidence issue that he foolish admit to the world in January this year, he said he is playing nervously during those pressure points or situation, nervous has nothing to do with movement. IMO

In the last few weeks his statements indicate almost a resignation saying "I know I am not as good as I used to be". He is not talking about nervousness anymore.

 

[Front242]

You don't compare a player to others to see if he's declining. You compare him to himself. Nadal's movement declined compared to what it used to be and in turn, it affected his results. By very definition he declined.

Now, is his confidence and concentration an issue? Sure. But those don't come out of the blue. There's a clear reason behind his loss of confidence.

Rafa's movement is about the same as it was at this time last year which was good enough to defend his title against Novak, Rafa has stated it's a confidence issue that he foolish admit to the world in January this year, he said he is playing nervously during those pressure points or situation, nervous has nothing to do with movement. IMO

In the last few weeks his statements indicate almost a resignation saying "I know I am not as good as I used to be". He is not talking about nervousness anymore.

Pretty much, yup.

''I am ready to accept the challenge,'' Nadal said. ''If I go to Roland Garros (and) I lose (and) I don't play well, life continues. It's not the end of the world. I won so many times there. I don't want to (win) 15 Roland Garros. That's for sure. It's normal that I can lose. Losing is part of life.''

But, he added: ''I am sure that I can be competitive.''

http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2015/05/federer-beats-berdych-to-reach-italian-open-semifinals/54897/#.VVjb-UZm50I

 

[the AntiPusher]

Rafa's movement is about the same as it was at this time last year which was good enough to defend his title against Novak, Rafa has stated it's a confidence issue that he foolish admit to the world in January this year, he said he is playing nervously during those pressure points or situation, nervous has nothing to do with movement. IMO

In the last few weeks his statements indicate almost a resignation saying "I know I am not as good as I used to be". He is not talking about nervousness anymore.

Pretty much, yup.

''I am ready to accept the challenge,'' Nadal said. ''If I go to Roland Garros (and) I lose (and) I don't play well, life continues. It's not the end of the world. I won so many times there. I don't want to (win) 15 Roland Garros. That's for sure. It's normal that I can lose. Losing is part of life.''

But, he added: ''I am sure that I can be competitive.''

http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2015/05/federer-beats-berdych-to-reach-italian-open-semifinals/54897/#.VVjb-UZm50I

I never seen an athlete such as Rafa say the things he does, it seems as though the Rafa fans warrior has lost a lot of his hunger, damn.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Sure Rafa doesn't move as well as he did before but it's still better than the majority of the players on the ATP. Rafa decline is due also his confidence and lack of concentration during points he needs to be more aggressive.

You don't compare a player to others to see if he's declining. You compare him to himself. Nadal's movement declined compared to what it used to be and in turn, it affected his results. By very definition he declined.

Now, is his confidence and concentration an issue? Sure. But those don't come out of the blue. There's a clear reason behind his loss of confidence.

Rafa's movement is about the same as it was at this time last year which was good enough to defend his title against Novak, Rafa has stated it's a confidence issue that he foolish admit to the world in January this year, he said he is playing nervously during those pressure points or situation, nervous has nothing to do with movement. IMO

Why are we limiting this conversation to last year though? That's what I don't get. And I'm not only addressing this at you, but most here. It seems like to understand if he's declining, people want to compare him to last year, which was a sub-par year regardless.

To see if he's declined, we compare him to his prime years, not a year in which he was already on a decline.