Indian Wells - ATP : Predictions and bets

Bert

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Hi everyone,

I am starting this new thread to talk about match analysis, predictions and betting for those who are into it.
With Indian Wells starting, I am sure that we will have plenty of passionate discussions and many opposite opinions to share :)

The draw is not known yet, so that's the perfect time for a summary of what we've learnt from the previous weeks and what we expect in this tournament.

Here my analysis and the players I will keep an eye on for betting purposes.

On the positive note :
One player that I will follow is Taylor Fritz. He played well in the past weeks, new comer in the Top100, may upset some better ranked players.
JM Del Potro. Happy to see him back on the tour. He had a WC here, may have a hard draw but he showed in Delray Beach that he hasn't lose his tennis.

These two players don't have a good ranking. They may have a hard draw and play high ranked players very early. The odds will be very interesting for them and they can definitely have good wins.

Kyrgios. We can discuss about his faked illness not to play Davis Cup, but better to discuss his very good form these last weeks. Interesting to note that in Dubai, he was the underdog against Berdych (even if he smashed him a week before). Maybe the same for Indian Wells, and good bets may be done probably after the first 2 or 3 rounds when he will play top players and when we know about his fitness :)

Querrey. He seems to be very close to his best and plays better than his actual ranking.

On a negative note :
Nadal. No one can contest he is not at his best anymore. But he is Nadal. That means for bookies, he will be the favourite quite often. May be some very interesting odds for his opponents and interesting bets to do, especially if he plays hardcourt players (e.g Fritz, Querrey ?), top 20-40 players in confidence (e.g Cuevas ?), Del Potro ?

Tsonga. He is not doing a good start this season but most of all, for the first time since he is pro, he decided to go to South America on clay instead of the usual European Indoor tournaments after AO. He played (badly) two tournaments on clay before meeting his French fellas in Guadeloupe for Davis Cup on a extra-slow, wet, heavy clay. Will be curious to see how fast he can switch to harcourt pace.

And we have to keep in mind the recently injured players who may not be 100% this week : Raonic, Tomic, Berdych, Kyrgios (?)...

Once again, this is my opinion from a betting point of view, that's why I am not talking about Djokovic, Murray, Nishikori, Thiem, etc... who are not of any interest for betting at least during the first week.

What do you think guys ?
 
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Carol

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Sincerely I don't like too much the predictions because how many times we get surprised for the results and more after this past year and beginning of this one where we haven't seen too much good game by many of them due to different reason. I hope to start to see something different and more competitive, everything depends of them and not what we want or wish :dance3:
 

Bert

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We all love watching good tennis, cannot agree more with you !

I wanted to start this thread because there are many people interested in betting who cannot find good or impartial analysis of tennis matches. On a forum like this one, I'm sure that there are many passionate people who follow tennis on a very regular basis and can provide valuable information. The idea was more to have a place in which we can find sharp analysis to make our own opinion.

Having said that, I agree that a prediction is a prediction... with its part of uncertainty... just thinking about yesterday discussions about Sharapova's press conference :)
 
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Billie

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Is Nick going to play? I am now really interested to see what he'll do. Injured or not injured, that is the question.:hoops:
 

Moxie

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Is Nick going to play? I am now really interested to see what he'll do. Injured or not injured, that is the question.:hoops:
Same with Djokovic. You said his shoulder, and Tennis.com says his thigh. @Bert, you might make some money to think that Novak won't make it to the final Sunday.
 

Bert

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On the bookmakers' side, they do not seem too worried about Djokovic not winning.
Odds (before draw ceremony) for Indian Wells title are : Djokovic 1.7 / Murray 5.5 / Wawrinka 8 and Nishikori 12.
Kyrgios 18. (same as Nadal)
 

Moxie

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I like your post, though I'm not so good about betting odds, so I can't really help you. But if you want to make a winning bet, don't you want the inside intel on how a top player might have longer odds than they are given? So that was my offer.

Otherwise: I wouldn't make too much of Querrey. Kyrgios: I don't think the illness was the issue so much as the back or hip. That may be ok, and if it is, I would look out for him. Everyone will be looking at where Del Potro lands in the draw, and how he does. Taylor Fritz could make a run, and Frances Tiafoe also got a WC in. The American future.

Raonic is still a worry and Berdy retired this weekend, but I didn't realize that Tomic was claiming injury. Anyway, Djokovic is on the "hampered" list; Murray looked good this weekend as did Nishikori, even though Andy beat him. As to Rafa...who knows where his game is? He likes IW, and it has liked him, so finger's crossed.
 
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Bert

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@Moxie Yes you're right. If Djokovic is not 100%, it has definitely to be kept in mind to pick the other guy when relevant.

I don't know Tiafoe well. Do you think he can win a match in the main draw ?

I usually don't bet on the tournament winner as I find it too risky. I prefer to bet on matches. Maybe I can select 2 or 3 interesting games each day so we can discuss and analyse them all together ?
 

Moxie

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Tiafoe is very young. Barely 18. But he's strong, confident and talented. If he were drawn against the right opponent, I think he could win a round. I think we'll have to see the draw, now, before we can help you to bet on the early rounds. But Tiafoe and Fritz could surely be your dark horses to win a first round. Especially as it is in the US. They're going to get a lot of local support.
 

Bert

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@Moxie First Round confrontation between Tiafoe and Fritz ! You cannot tell now you are not gifted for predictions :)

DelPotro plays a qualifier in a first round and if he wins, will play Berdych in the 2nd round. Looking forward to it !!
 
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Moxie

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@Moxie First Round confrontation between Tiafoe and Fritz ! You cannot tell now you are not gifted for predictions :)

DelPotro plays a qualifier in a first round and if he wins, will play Berdych in the 2nd round. Looking forward to it !!
Hahaha! That's not what I had in mind, but it's one way to be right. One of them will get through the first round. I have to guess it will be Fritz, but I will be rooting for Tiafoe.
 

Bert

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masterclass

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[1]Djokovic vs. [7]Tsonga
----------------------------------------------------------[1]Djokovic vs. [9]Isner
[16]Simon vs. [9]Isner

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------[9]Isner vs. [2]Murray

[8]Gasquet vs. [10]Cillc
---------------------------------[8]Gasquet vs [3]Wawrinka
Fritz vs. [3]|Wawrinka

----------------------------------------------------------[3]Wawrinka vs. [2]Murray

[WC] Del Potro vs. [12]Raonic
--------------------------------[WC] Del Potro vs. [2]Murray
[13]Monfils vs. Murray


:drums:
:drums:
:drums:
:drums:
:drums:
:drums:
:drums:


Andy "WellsRay" Murray, OBE
c4aaa635b4b80498a943babec01063de.jpg



P.S. Third round lefty "pim pam pum" send off for Rafa. :eek: Toni says their game is too fast for him.

Respectfully,
masterclass
 

Moxie

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Verdasco? We shall see if lightening strikes there again.
 

masterclass

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Or Klizan. They are both lefties that have used their power to beat Rafa from behind in their last matches.
If he keeps leaving his balls on a platter for them, they'll eat him up.

Somehow, I think he'll get past elders Muller/Burgos in the 2nd round.

Respectfully,
masterclass
 

britbox

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@Moxie Yes you're right. If Djokovic is not 100%, it has definitely to be kept in mind to pick the other guy when relevant.

I don't know Tiafoe well. Do you think he can win a match in the main draw ?

I usually don't bet on the tournament winner as I find it too risky. I prefer to bet on matches. Maybe I can select 2 or 3 interesting games each day so we can discuss and analyse them all together ?

That's sounds good Bert. Do you want to pick 2 or 3 and we'll have a go.
 

Bert

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That's sounds good Bert. Do you want to pick 2 or 3 and we'll have a go.

There is still one round of qualification for men so first round will be tomorrow. The odds are not known yet but there are 3 matches on my radar :)

Gulbis - Garcia-Lopez : 5w / 6l this season for both players, GL has a better ranking but for me this is a 50/50 just curious to see the odds. I don't like to bet on Gulbis, I am wrong all the time :)

Youzhny - Bedene : Youzhny played and won 3 challengers and qualified for Dubai main draw but lost in 1R. Bedene didn't have significant wins except against injured
Karlovic. Odds may be very interesting because not easy to set in my opinion. Would give a slight advantage to Bedene.

Fritz - Tiafoe : 100% USA match. I would see Fritz to win. Odds may be low (around 1.2) but some other bets (2 or 3 sets) may be interesting.

Game list for Thursday is not complete yet (will be complete after last round of qualif) but exciting matcheswill come from Friday.
 

britbox

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OK, I'm playing with $100 virtual money for the start of the tournament, and will see what I end up with.

$10 on Fritz to match my real bet (below) to beat Tiafoe.

I can't see the odds for some of these matches yet, so will give it 24 hours and then virtual bet on the others.

I'm also playing with $20 bucks real money and have just put $10 on Fritz at 1.18.