If back in 2018…

[Moxie]

I completely forgot that I had posted here, and revisited my own posts, with a good tad of surprise! I am a little shocked about how consistent I am being...

But as I read mine, I read yours posts as well. You, @El Dude and @Jelenafan make very good points about Alcaraz. You are on the safe side of the bet, this is very clear to me.

But now I understood my own reasoning, which comes from the spirit of this thread. Jelenafan was clever to point out something that everyone was quite sure about in 2018, which simply did not happen. Everyone is quite sure now about the future of Sinner/Alcaraz...

Again, the safe bet is for them to keep dominating. But we know in tennis nothing is a given... On top of it all, I always root for the unlikely (except when I am on a plane).

Yes, you get bonus points for consistency! As you say, no one knows the future, which this thread is a good reminder of, so why not be bold? And clearly, you have a feeling about this one.

I wouldn't say that "everyone is quite sure now about the future of Sinner/Alcaraz," but it IS the safe bet that they'll still be playing Top 5 tennis in 5 years, given talent, temperament and their ages. But, as you also say, @Jelenafan's point of this post was that a bet that seemed safe 5 years ago...and a modest one, at that...that just one of those 4 players would at have a Slam in 5 years, didn't come true. So the contrarian prediction has its merits, for sure.

 

[El Dude]

Here's a silly exercise. Alcaraz is 21, at the end of 2029, he'll be 26 and 7 months. So where were the ATGs at that age?

I won't go into all the details, but I looked at the 6+ Slam winners of the Open Era, starting with Connors and ending (for now) with Djokovic. Looking at where they were at age 26 and 7 months, and one-third were either done as top players or at the very end of their primes; one-third still had a few good years left; and one-third had tons of prime left. Like so:

Early decline: Borg, McEnroe, Wilander, Edberg
Middle: Connors, Lendl, Becker, Sampras
Late decline: Agassi, Federer, Nadal, Djokovic

So pretty evenly split, with variations between. Of course we don't know how Alcaraz will age. We can note that the most recent greats all had great longevity, but it is hard to know if they were anomalies or setting new norms. But I think chances are very good that Alcaraz will still be in pirme form in 2029 and for at least a few years to come.

 

[mrzz]

Let's see. One thing I would add is that, as time passes by, the games get more and more physical. With new technologies, the attention to details -- and it's direct impact on what people train -- gets bigger. So the continuous physical and mental stress only gets larger. It won't surprise if top level athletes start quiting at younger ages, specially if they find alternative forms of generating income (publicity contracts, tv/streaming jobs, social media revenue).

 

[Moxie]

I feel I've distracted this conversation to this thread, when it belongs on the 2029 predictions thread. I'll respond to the above over there.