How will Djokovic perform against the young generation in 2023?

[Jelenafan]

The Americans have a big bunch of 24/25 year olds, TaylorFritz, FrancisTiafoe, Maxine Cressy, Tommy Paul & Reilly Opelka who could do some damage.

These guys all grew up in juniors together & i get the feeling they feed off of each others successes as Americans.

 

[Moxie]

The Americans have a big bunch of 24/25 year olds, TaylorFritz, FrancisTiafoe, Maxine Cressy, Tommy Paul & Reilly Opelka who could do some damage.

These guys all grew up in juniors together & i get the feeling they feed off of each others successes as Americans.

Thanks for mentioning the burgeoning US men's field. I held off doing the whole group, but there's a lot going on there.

 

[El Dude]

I really hope to see American (men's) tennis rise again. There's no Sampras-Agassi-McEnroe on the horizon, and probably not even a Courier-Ashe-Smith, but maybe a Roddick (equivalent)?

I'm doing a study on tennis nation's and it is frankly depressing how much the US has fallen. No Slams since 2003 and only 5 Masters in the last 18 years. At least three of those have been in the last six years, though. That's progress, I guess!

Brooksby and Korda should be added to the list - but they're a bit younger. They both stalled a bit this year, but both had impressive moments last year. Top 10 American men:

9. Fritz, 25
19. Tiafoe, 24
32. Paul, 25
33. Korda, 22
34. Cressy, 25
38. Opelka, 25
41. Isner, 37
47. Nakashima, 21
48. Brooksby, 22
61. Giron, 29

Some youth there. Nakashima has quietly risen this year.

Also, 20-year old Ben Shelton made the top 100.

 

[Kieran]

I really hope to see American (men's) tennis rise again. There's no Sampras-Agassi-McEnroe on the horizon, and probably not even a Courier-Ashe-Smith, but maybe a Roddick (equivalent)?

I'm doing a study on tennis nation's and it is frankly depressing how much the US has fallen. No Slams since 2003 and only 5 Masters in the last 18 years. At least three of those have been in the last six years, though. That's progress, I guess!

Brooksby and Korda should be added to the list - but they're a bit younger. They both stalled a bit this year, but both had impressive moments last year. Top 10 American men:

9. Fritz, 25
19. Tiafoe, 24
32. Paul, 25
33. Korda, 22
34. Cressy, 25
38. Opelka, 25
41. Isner, 37
47. Nakashima, 21
48. Brooksby, 22
61. Giron, 29

Some youth there. Nakashima has quietly risen this year.

Also, 20-year old Ben Shelton made the top 100.

So this is a conversation on its own, but what’s the problem over there? You’ve fallen off the map completely since Sampras and Agassi. Not one great male player in over 20 years. How did you produce so many - and then stop?

 

[El Dude]

So this is a conversation on its own, but what’s the problem over there? You’ve fallen off the map completely since Sampras and Agassi. Not one great male player in over 20 years. How did you produce so many - and then stop?

Well, I think it goes back at least to Obama selling out to big banks, but also Clinton selling out to everyone, and before that....Oh, wait, you're talking about tennis.

Well, this is a good article from a year and a half ago: https://www.espn.com/tennis/story/_...021-rise-fall-hopefulness-american-men-tennis

I think it gives some indicators, without singling out one specific thing that is the singular cause of men's decline. But the overall view is that things look better now than they have in years (see my list above). The article is especially sweet on Korda, who has stagnated since, but still holds a lot of promise.

As I said above, I don't think anyone out there is going to be another Sampras or even Agassi, but the overall American men's field is more promising than it has been in years.

 

[tented]

So this is a conversation on its own, but what’s the problem over there? You’ve fallen off the map completely since Sampras and Agassi. Not one great male player in over 20 years. How did you produce so many - and then stop?

A significant factor, IMO, is the overemphasis of hard courts, and almost ignoring clay. The last time a US man won a big clay tournament was 2002: Agassi (Rome). You have to go all the way back to 1994 to find another: Sampras (also Rome). There haven’t even been American runners-up during this period! Just two Masters in the last 30 years. This isn’t a coincidence.

It also speaks to no US player being No. 1 since Andy Roddick, who only achieved that for a short time after winning the US Open. Considering clay accounts for 3/9 Masters and 1/4 Majors, if Americans continue to be unsuccessful on this surface, therefore allowing (mainly) Europeans to be successful, it will extremely difficult for someone from the US even to get to No. 1, nevertheless stay there for long.

 

[El Dude]

A significant factor, IMO, is the overemphasis of hard courts, and almost ignoring clay. The last time a US man won a big clay tournament was 2002: Agassi (Rome). You have to go all the way back to 1994 to find another: Sampras (also Rome). There haven’t even been American runners-up during this period! Just two Masters in the last 30 years. This isn’t a coincidence.

It also speaks to no US player being No. 1 since Andy Roddick, who only achieved that for a short time after winning the US Open. Considering clay accounts for 3/9 Masters and 1/4 Majors, if Americans continue to be unsuccessful on this surface, therefore allowing (mainly) Europeans to be successful, it will extremely difficult for someone from the US even to get to No. 1, nevertheless stay there for long.

The article I linked mentioned the clay element, and even related it to the insane movement the top players have now, and how playing on clay helps development good movement on all courts, that the relative lack of clay in the US (I think there is one US pro clay court? EDIT: Yes, Houston) hinders this development in American players.

As a side note, I'm working on a series of articles that goes through "tennis nations" one by one, to look at the trajectory of players, who the top players are, etc. I should get the intro and part one up in the next few days. My first nation is....drum roll....España.

 

[Fiero425]

A significant factor, IMO, is the overemphasis of hard courts, and almost ignoring clay. The last time a US man won a big clay tournament was 2002: Agassi (Rome). You have to go all the way back to 1994 to find another: Sampras (also Rome). There haven’t even been American runners-up during this period! Just two Masters in the last 30 years. This isn’t a coincidence.

It also speaks to no US player being No. 1 since Andy Roddick, who only achieved that for a short time after winning the US Open. Considering clay accounts for 3/9 Masters and 1/4 Majors, if Americans continue to be unsuccessful on this surface, therefore allowing (mainly) Europeans to be successful, it will extremely difficult for someone from the US even to get to No. 1, nevertheless stay there for long.

We were fortunate the players of that era weren't that great to begin with! The US players developed for the most part were designed to have a hot streak and burn bright for a short time! Outside of Connors, McEnroe, Sampras, & Agassi, the other players' successes were quite limited; esp. players like Courier, Chang, Washington, Martin, Davis, & so many pretenders! Isner and Querry fell so short when they could at least serve people off the court! This rant OTTH! I'm sure I'm missing someone, but we've been so spoiled by the excellence of Fedalovic!

 

[Moxie]

The article I linked mentioned the clay element, and even related it to the insane movement the top players have now, and how playing on clay helps development good movement on all courts, that the relative lack of clay in the US (I think there is one US pro clay court? EDIT: Yes, Houston) hinders this development in American players.

As a side note, I'm working on a series of articles that goes through "tennis nations" one by one, to look at the trajectory of players, who the top players are, etc. I should get the intro and part one up in the next few days. My first nation is....drum roll....España.

I like it. If you're going to do Spain, some tennis coaches here in the US, like Emilio Sanchez, who has an academy in FL, have been trying to introduce more clay into the US, and I think one or both McEnroe brothers have been proponents of more clay in the US. I'm following onto @tented's great post saying that US players eschew clay too much. I'm pretty sure Emilio Sanchez said that, while US players start with hitting the ball, Spanish players start with moving the feet. I think there's something in there.

 

[Jelenafan]

A significant factor, IMO, is the overemphasis of hard courts, and almost ignoring clay. The last time a US man won a big clay tournament was 2002: Agassi (Rome). You have to go all the way back to 1994 to find another: Sampras (also Rome). There haven’t even been American runners-up during this period! Just two Masters in the last 30 years. This isn’t a coincidence.

It also speaks to no US player being No. 1 since Andy Roddick, who only achieved that for a short time after winning the US Open. Considering clay accounts for 3/9 Masters and 1/4 Majors, if Americans continue to be unsuccessful on this surface, therefore allowing (mainly) Europeans to be successful, it will extremely difficult for someone from the US even to get to No. 1, nevertheless stay there for long.

Arguably clay is the best surface of Carlos Alcaraz, Casper Ruud, Holger Rune, and other top Europeans and yet all have reached/won HC finals in Masters & even Slams.

The crown princes (Zverev & Taitspas) have had very good success on HC and other claycourters can surprise with good HC results. Theim before his decline had great HC results. Even young Mussetti is also improving on HC.

So if claycourters can transition to HC what makes it so hard for American HC’s to do so with clay?

In comparison, HC Canadians FAA & Dennis Shapovalov have had relatively better claycourt results, so I wonder if the Americans culturally just resist the notion to spend serious time training on clay.

 

[Moxie]

Arguably clay is the best surface of Carlos Alcaraz, Casper Ruud, Holger Rune, and other top Europeans and yet all have reached/won HC finals in Masters & even Slams.

The crown princes (Zverev & Taitspas) have had very good success on HC and other claycourters can surprise with good HC results. Theim before his decline had great HC results. Even young Mussetti is also improving on HC.

So if claycourters can transition to HC what makes it so hard for American HC’s to do so with clay?

In comparison, HC Canadians FAA & Dennis Shapovalov have had relatively better claycourt results, so I wonder if the Americans culturally just resist the notion to spend serious time training on clay.

I'm going to disagree that Alcaraz and Rune's best surfaces are clay. Alcaraz's winning percentage on clay is slightly higher than his HC one, but I think that is a small sample. His game is very suited to HCs. Rune's W/L is definitely on HC. Ruud is the one who is definitely a clay courter.

I also think that Zverev and Tsitsipas are more HC guys, with their game, but it does adapt to clay. Why? I don't know. Is the easy answer that Europeans in general focus on footwork? Remember the famous Sharapova quote about feeling like a "cow on ice." Either you can slide into a shot or you can't. I think you have to make the clay work for you. I have yet to remember a commentator telling me to watch the footwork on a single US player, including women. Start there.

 

[Jelenafan]

I'm going to disagree that Alcaraz and Rune's best surfaces are clay. Alcaraz's winning percentage on clay is slightly higher than his HC one, but I think that is a small sample. His game is very suited to HCs. Rune's W/L is definitely on HC. Ruud is the one who is definitely a clay courter.

I also think that Zverev and Tsitsipas are more HC guys, with their game, but it does adapt to clay. Why? I don't know. Is the easy answer that Europeans in general focus on footwork? Remember the famous Sharapova quote about feeling like a "cow on ice." Either you can slide into a shot or you can't. I think you have to make the clay work for you. I have yet to remember a commentator telling me to watch the footwork on a single US player, including women. Start there.

There is a reason i said “arguably”, they are comfortable on clay, Rune won his first ATP tourney on red clay and his best Slam result so far is reaching qtrs at Roland Garos.

Alcaraz won 3 clay tournaments earlier in the year (in one besting Nadal/Djokovic back 2 back) and provably will be a fave for next year’s FO.

IMO they are as proficient in clay as they are on HC.

 

[Nadalfan2013]

It's been an interesting read and I can see that the consensus on this forum is that Djokovic is indeed finished and that the new generation are taking over... Thank you.

 

[Moxie]

It's been an interesting read and I can see that the consensus on this forum is that Djokovic is indeed finished and that the new generation are taking over... Thank you.

 

[Fiero425]

I guess the official diagnosis should be "delusional AF!"

 

[Nadalfan2013]

 

[Nadalfan2013]

Just quickly stopping by and bumping this thread to remind everyone that the slam race is over at 22-21-20 in favor of Nadal. Good night.

 

[Front242]

Just quickly stopping by and bumping this thread to remind everyone that the slam race is over at 22-21-20 in favor of Nadal. Good night.

Dream on. Who is beating Djokovic at Wimbledon ? He's gonna be the overwhelming favourite at the AO also so that's 2 slams he's a very big favourite at out of 4. Not saying he'll win both but to just stupidly look for attention saying he's not going to win another slam when he's the top favourite at 2 in 2023 at least is just

 

[Fiero425]

Dream on. Who is beating Djokovic at Wimbledon ? He's gonna be the overwhelming favourite at the AO also so that's 2 slams he's a very big favourite at out of 4. Not saying he'll win both but to just stupidly look for attention saying he's not going to win another slam when he's the top favourite at 2 in 2023 at least is just

There are people who feel Djokovic is already the defacto #1 with that "winning kick" this past season! His only real blemish was finishing off Rune in Paris final! It's amazing that he took the YEC undefeated even if he's rested most of the year! Alcaraz and Rune might come back to Earth and Zverev of the NG'rs still only dangerous in B03 vs Nole! It appears all Djokovic has to do is win the AO to take over the top ranking! I don't see any reason why he shouldn't win it 2 or 3 more times with another Wimbledon or 2!

 

[Moxie]

Dream on. Who is beating Djokovic at Wimbledon ? He's gonna be the overwhelming favourite at the AO also so that's 2 slams he's a very big favourite at out of 4. Not saying he'll win both but to just stupidly look for attention saying he's not going to win another slam when he's the top favourite at 2 in 2023 at least is just

I think you're right that Novak should be favored in the upcoming AO, and most likely Wimbledon, though that's a long way off, and he will be 36? by the summer. I don't see why it's a complete face-palm to say that he may not win one or even both. You act as if there are no youngsters chasing him up. I thought you were a fan of Medvedev. And, not to put too fine a point on it, Young Alcaraz IS the world #1. No competition?